Anyways, Iowa. First of all, as Coach Bennett indicated in the postgame presser following yesterday's win over St. John's, Iowa is a really good team. Bennett suggested that they might be one of the best squads we face all year and I tend to agree with that. Not only were they a few close games away from making the NCAA Tournament, but they were also really a few close games away from being a pretty damn good seed.
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Just look at those close losses. If one or two go the other way, they're dancing. Three or four? They're a lock and a decent seed. Now the 9 point OSU loss in Columbus may not seem "close", until you look at the box score. Iowa trailed 53-29 with 12:48 left. With a minute left, the score was 63-59 Buckeyes. They went on a 30-10 run against the eventual Big Ten Champs in their own house. That alone is worthy of taking notice.
Enough about their losses, let's look at their wins.
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*
Four very good wins against tourney teams. The trend? They were obviously all at home. Like Virginia, it was likely Iowa's inability to win on the road that kept them out of the dance. But if you look at the table of Losses above, it is clear that the Hawkeyes didn't exactly roll over on the road. While they weren't able to get that quality road win, they came damn near close. In fact the only two road blowouts were against Michigan and Virginia Tech. No that's not a typo.
Iowa 79
(5-2, 0-1 away)
Virginia Tech 95
(6-0, 5-0 home)
**
I watched this game. It was a sort of "perfect storm" for both teams. It was a good sort of perfect storm for the Hokies, as they were in the midst of their hot streak and Iowa let them get away with pushing the tempo. If Iowa had tried to slow it down (even though that's not really they're game), I don't think there's any way Tech could've stopped them on defense. Maybe VT still would've won, but it would've been much closer. It was a bad perfect storm for Iowa just because they were coming off their first loss of the year to Wichita State in the Cancun Tournament. And let's be real here, it's unfair to expect much out of a team that has to go from Cancun....
***
....to Blacksburg in November:
We can understandably forgive them for that loss.
But seriously, you can throw away that game just like you can throw away the ODU, GMU, and Delaware games for us. The team that lost of VT won't be there on Wednesday, neither will the one that went 0-3 against the CAA. The fact is that both teams are greatly improved (and healthier).
Projected Starters:
6'8 Akil Mitchell 7'1 Adam Woodbury
6'6 Justin Anderson 6'7 Melsahn Basabe
6'6 Joe Harris 6'8 Aaron White
6'5 Paul Jesperson 6'6 Roy Devyn Marble
5'11 Jontel Evans 6'1 Mike Gesell
Matchups:
Woodbury starts for Iowa, but I imagine that might just be to win the opening tip because he rarely plays over 20 minutes. When he's out, they could either go small by putting guys like 6'5 wing Eric May or 6'5 wing/shooter Josh Oglesby in. Or, they could play a bigger lineup, replacing Woodbury with 6'10 Gabriel Olaseni or 6'7 Zach McCabe. I'm not totally sure which direction they'll go. They're a deep team that likes to use a bunch of different guys, so I'd imagine they'll try out a couple lineups and see what works. But looking at the matchups, I'll focus on the guys most likely to see the floor.
I think we'll see a good bit of Mitchell on Basabe. Frankly, when I look at their both of their games, I see some similarities. Both are a bit undersized and rely on their quickness and athleticism to be effective on both ends. Basable is just that, quick and athletic. He likes to dunk the ball and protect the rim. He won't shoot from outside, but he's pretty effective inside the paint. He's not a big scorer, but he's also not a guy you can forget about. If you give him easy ones, he can put 15 or so on you in a hurry. He also seems like a guy who will draw contact and get to the line. I'll give the edge here to Akil, though, just because he's not going to be the least bit phased after the guys he's faced all year. Obviously, Basabe has gone against some of the best bigs in the country as well, but I doubt he's drawn the kind of assignments Akil gets on a nightly basis. I expect Basabe to be active on defense and try to frustrate Akil down low, but at the end of the day, I just think Akil is the better player. He's been playing good basketball recently (with the exception of the NSU game) and I expect that to continue against Iowa.
The next big matchup will be on the wings. Now these could go a number of different ways. All I know is that Jesperson likely won't guard White. Other than that, I could see Harris and Anderson (and maybe even Nolte) on either White, Marble, McCabe, or May. White is probably the guy that scares the most on this Iowa team. He's a big, athletic wing that can hurt you in a bunch of different ways. He's a physical player that uses his size and athleticism to his advantage. He can step out and hit shots from the outside, but I think his strength is taking it to the rim. I think we'll see Anderson on him when May is in the game. Otherwise, I think Joe may try and handle this matchup. He's a bit smaller than White, but Joe has handled matchups like that plenty of other times. One thing to be aware of concerning White is that he's very good at getting to the line, so whoever guards him will have to stay out of foul trouble.
The other main matchup on the wing will be whoever guards Iowa's top scorer, Roy Devyn Marble. Again, this will depend on who guards White and whether Iowa goes small with May and Oglesby, or big with Olaseni and McCabe. Still, I have a feeling we'll see Jesperson on Marble for a good portion of the game. The thing that most concerns me about Marble is if he heats from outside. He's not a great 3 point shooter, at least when it comes to consistency, but when he's feeling it, he can be really dangerous. Now, this hasn't really happened too much this year, but if there was a team where it could happen against, I feel like it would be UVA. Out of all of Virginia's wings, Paul does the best job closing out and denying open shots from range. He's not perfect at this, but still, he has shown the ability to frustrate opposing shooters. Still, Jesperson will have to work to prevent Marble from getting into the lane. Hopefully, the pack line will prevent some of his dribble penetration. In one of the two games against Wisconsin, he went 1-10 from the floor for just 2 points. We'll have to hope for a similar night.
At point guard, the matchup is pretty much set in stone. For most of the game, it'll be Jontel Evans vs. Mike Gesell. Some of you may remember Gesell's name. This is because he was firmly on Virginia's recruiting radar, though Bennett never officially offered. I really, really liked his game in high school. I never really knew why we never offered. There was a time where I felt that if we did indeed offer, we would've had a good chance. Ultimately, I don't know how likely that would have been once his friend and AAU teammate Adam Woodbury committed to the Hawkeyes (though one could make the case that Woodbury wouldn't be at Iowa without Gesell). Anyways, I still really like Mike's game. He has nice size, strength, and quickness. He can handle the ball, make good decisions and passes, and knock down shots both from deep and from around the foul line. All in all, he's just a really solid PG. Bub could frustrate him and defense, but still, I expect Gesell to have a good game. I don't think he'll really determine the game, unless he either has an uncharacteristically good or bad game. I think Evans is a step quicker, so hopefully he'll be able to get to the rack a few times.
As far as the bench goes, as I mentioned above, Iowa uses a bunch of bodies. You can expect 9-10 guys to see time for the Hawkeyes. However, I feel that the only real guys on the bench to take note of are Eric May and Zach McCabe, and to a lesser extent, Josh Oglesby. Now May has seen a bit more time than Gesell recently, so you may see more of him against Evans. May is a big, very athletic guard with great size. He's much more of a wing or combo guard than a true point guard, but you may see him play some point on Wednesday. He's good at getting past his defender and either pulling up for a shot, dishing to a teammate, or taking it to the basket. McCabe's a guy who seems to like to step in the game and take a couple of threes. He's got a nice shot that Virginia will have to be ready for. He's also got good size and could create some matchup issues. We might see Nolte on him for a bit. Now Woodbury isn't technically on the bench, but it might feel like it. I'm assuming we'll see Tobey play when Woodbury's on the floor. Otherwise, I think we might see Darion get some run. As far as the Tobey-Woodbury matchup, I like Mike. Woodbury's gonna be a very good player, but I think he's not quite at the level Tobey is. Mike has faced and succeeded against better and more experienced guys than Woodbury. It'll be interesting to see if Tobey can get in a rhythm like he did against St. John's.
Now I've written at length about matchups, but I really think this game will come down to how the Hawkeyes try and defend. I have a feeling they'll try and go zone, like we've seen with Maryland, NSU, and St. John's recently. It seems like Joe seems to struggle to assert himself against the zone. I think this is because his biggest strength is the way he moves without the ball and creates separation from a chasing defender. Against a zone, there is no chasing defender. Don't get me wrong. His game can still be very effective against a zone, it's just that he's just not as used to it. Still, in the past couple games, while he hasn't been scoring as much, he has been doing a good job of breaking the zone down and creating opportunity for teammates. I have a feeling he'll have a better night against the Hawkeyes. Still, overall, I think this game comes down to how UVA executes on offense. I think the game will be a tough grind. We'll want to slow it down, they'll want to run, and it'll likely fall somewhere in the middle.
Keys for Virginia to win the game:
1) Rebound the ball- Iowa is a big, athletic, and active team that can potentially dominate on the glass. Virginia didn't do a good enough job on the boards against St. John's. If they have a similar showing, it they'll probably lose. UVA must be especially aware of Iowa's guards crashing the boards.
2) Create good shots and knock 'em down- This is key to just about every game, but if they go zone, it's an even bigger deal. As we've seen recently, we seem to prefer playing against man rather than zone. If they do go zone, we must be opportunistic and capitalize on the opportunities we do create, because they may be fewer than we would against man.
I'm not going to give a real prediction other than the fact that I like UVA's chances at home against anyone. It wouldn't surprise me if Virginia lost to Iowa, but still, given Iowa's struggles on the road and our success at home, there are reasons to feel confident.
*http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2294/iowa-hawkeyes
** http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=323320259
*** http://wfiles.brothersoft.com/c/cancun-island_95633-1920x1200.jpg
**** http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_KKwdnRvirVM/SWwUxnkBMuI/AAAAAAAAG-w/c4C2jr9QwRk/s200/cassell+coliseum+j.jpg
