2013-2014 Roster Breakdown

ROSTER BREAKDOWN:

Starting Lineup-
G: Malcolm Brogdon 6'5  217  RS-So
G: Joe Harris              6'6  225  Sr
G: Justin Anderson    6'6   227  So
F: Akil Mitchell         6'8   235  Sr
F: Anthony Gill         6'8   230  RS-So


Guards-
-Malcolm Brogdon: About as big, physical, and strong of a PG you'll find just about anywhere. Many fans question his fit as a true point guard, but I'll reiterate what plenty have said before: under Tony Bennett, there really is not that much difference between the 1 and 3 spots. Rather, Tony looks for certain qualities in each of his guards. Obviously for a coach like Bennett, fundamentals are paramount, so you have to be able to have a strong enough handle to take care of the basketball and you have to be competent on defense. Malcolm is fine on both of those fronts. While his handle was not his strong suit as a freshman, I don't think anyone saw him as a real liability with the ball in his hands. At his worst, he looked like a typical freshman guard. He'll never be a guy who will use his handle to break a defender down, and that's fine. From what I've heard, Malcolm's handle has improved dramatically thanks to the work he put in during his redshirt year. It won't be flashy, but I'm willing to bet he'll be very strong with the ball and won't cough it up often. As far as his defense, I was actually more impressed than some others by how he played defensively his first year. He did a very good job on Terrell Stoglin and Nick Faust when called upon, and those are guys who on paper should be matchup problems. I'm sure there will be a few guys Malcolm will have troubles staying with, but overall, I expect him to defend well. The rest of his game is pretty much where he excels. He can drive, overpower smaller guards, post up, move the ball around, and is a capable shooter when he has a look. I could go on, but what I really expect to see from Malcolm this year is solid, steady play. Given the rest of our roster, we don't need a PG who can go out and win games by himself (ala Sean Singletary). Instead, what we need at point is a guy who can limit mistakes, make good decisions, and create opportunities for the loads of surrounding talented players, and it seems like Malcolm's the right guy for the job.
Brogdon VSTV Clip

-Joe Harris: Not too much needs to be said here. He's probably the best shooter in the country if you interpret "shooter" broadly and not just as a 3 pt specialist. Regardless of where he is on the floor, he can find shots and make them. Each year I continue to be surprised at just how big he is. He's the same size as Justin Anderson, and honestly, whenever I see them together Joe may even seem a bit bigger. People like to knock on his athleticism, which I think is just silly. Is he Justin? No. But watch him burn players on Duke, UNC, NCST, etc. and tell me he's unathletic. I think the biggest thing for Joe this year is his supporting cast. Most fans assume that Joe's production must necessarily drop due to the amount of depth and talent around him. While that does make sense, I still think Joe will score just as much if not more so than last year. I feel this way because last year, he had very limited help. Most of the looks he got he created for himself. When you're playing along a PG and SG who realistically are not threats to score, a team can afford to pay more attention to you. This is what we really saw a lot of after the Duke game. Teams keyed in on Harris and made guys like Evans and Jesperson go out and make them pay for it. They did not. This year will be different. Joe will be surrounded be viable offensive weapons. Opposing defenses won't be able to sag off other guys to help with Joe. If they do, they'll pay for it. Ultimately, I think this will have the greatest effect on Joe's efficiency. I think he'll get better looks and have to work less to get them. And if you're giving him good looks, you're cooked.


Harris VSTV Clip

-Justin Anderson: By the end of last year, as Harris struggled, Justin emerged as the teams best player. His statline against Iowa was just silly.

NIT - QUARTERFINAL                                                                                                                                                                                           FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
Wed 3/27	vs (6) IOWA	L 75-64	35	6-14	.429	5-8	.625	7-8	.875	6	2	5	3	2	4	24

Now, I think one of the most interesting questions going into this season is what exactly will be Justin's role? It's tough to say for sure, but there's one thing that's a given: he'll have a huge impact on our success. He's just the type of player that can make a difference between winning and losing, even if it doesn't show up on the statsheet. I think his on ball and packline defense will take a leap forward this year. He'll likely get the toughest assignment each night unless it's a tiny guard or a huge center. Anything in between is right in his wheelhouse. I also expect his shooting to improve from last year. He struggled hitting outside shots early on in the year, but rebounded from an 0-9 start to shoot 36% the rest of the way. I don't think he'll ever be a 40-45% guy, but if he can consistently hit 35-40% of his shots from range, it will help the team greatly. He also showed a very solid midrange game last year, which will only get better. And finally, my favorite part of Justin's game: blocks and dunks. There will be lots of them.

Anderson/Nolte VSTV Clip

-London Perrantes: I'm a really big fan of London's skillset. Over the summer, I watched 4-5 full game tapes and came away very impressed. He's a leader on the floor. He can shoot the ball from range. He has great touch on his passes. But the thing that stands out the most is his vision/decision making. London always seems to be hyperaware of what's happening on the court at any given time. He can read the defense and predict what they're going to do. He always seems like he's one step ahead of the defenders. These skills make him a great fit for this year's team, as he could distribute and make his teammates better. Here are some blurbs from those who followed him on the recruiting trail:

 "...Perrantes, who carved up his opponents with the precision of a physican's scalpel. Time and again, the 6-foot-1, 185 pound passing phenom made not only great decisions off ball screens delivered to his doorstep or in the open floor, but decisions that most others would have never seen seen much less had the skill to execute.

In that respect, Perrantes reminds a lot of former ASU point guard Derek Glasser, who always got the ball to the right spot and never did it riskily. Few high school court generals have the playmaking capability of Perrantes. Even fewer feel no need to showboat or be risk tolerant in order to provide moments of flair.

In an era of unaccomplished players showcasing swagger while ignorant to their mediocrity, Perrantes is genuinely really good at something and completely unaffected by it, at least outwardly. At the same time, he knows he's made real strides with his game and that's where his pleasure is derived. "

"A player who was surprisingly omitted from the all-star games was London Perrantes. The Crespi floor general played well in an environment that breeds selfishness. Perrantes played his game, which is centered on making his teammates better and playing with patience and poise."

I think those speak well about what we can expect from London.




-Teven Jones: For whatever reason, people seem to forget about Teven. Maybe it's because of Brogdon's hype, or the arrival of Perrantes and Hall, but I think fans may be overlooking Jones. Granted, he had his ups and downs, but for the most part, I think it's fair to say he made the most of a less than ideal situation. At times he was thrown into the fire. Other times he seemed to be in Bennett's doghouse. Credit Teven for sticking it out and coming back, despite the fact that every fan, present company included, wondered aloud whether he might be our next player to jump ship. I think this speaks to his "fire." Like Jontel Evans, Jones has a bit of that football, chip on the shoulder mentality. On top of that, I think that he actually has more potential than people realize. Defensively, if it all comes together for him, he could be a menace. Not only is he lightning quick with both his hands and feet, but he has an incredibly long wingspan for someone his size. This was likely one of the reasons why programs such as Clemson expressed interest in him as a defensive back. If the light comes on, he could be a terrific defensive player. Teven actually has surprisingly solid offensive potential as well. I don't think he'll be a double digit scorer, but he showed the ability to protect the ball, run the offense, and knock down shots when needed. If he keeps improving, he'll find himself a role on this team. His athleticism and energy are traits that few possess.

-Devon Hall: Speaking of forgotten men, remember when Devon reclassified to the class of 2013 committed last summer? It was a huge freaking deal. He was essentially the long awaited savior PG that the Bennett "haters" had used as proof for Tony's "recruiting deficiencies." Well, thanks to the reclassification and a poor summer on the AAU circuit, Devon saw his once elite ranking plummet. Personally I have some issues with how they weighted his AAU play (where I believe he struggled because of the role Boo Williams had him in) against his HS play (where he played brilliantly), but at the end of the day, rankings are simply rankings (see Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell). All that said, while I think that Devon has All-ACC talent, it might take him some adjusting. If we really needed to have him play a serious role this year, I think he would do fine, with some expected freshman struggles early on. But the fact is, given our depth, we can ease him in and let him develop naturally. Ultimately I think this will work out for the best. He, like Malcolm is a big PG, but unlike Malcolm, he's much more of a natural at the position. While is a capable shooter, he was once so highly regarded because he was one of the best passers in the country. Kendall Marshall may seem like a lazy comparison given the fact that they're both oversized, lefty, pass-first PGs from VA, but I think it's actually pretty damn spot on. There are differences but if you want to imagine Devon's style of play, that's a good place to start. The key for him, however will be on defense. He has potential on that end, but it will take a lot of hard work and practice.


Forwards/Centers-

-Akil Mitchell- Obviously, Akil's career has been a "surprise." But only when you consider his recruitment. While he was very raw, when he played during his first year, you could tell that he had potential. He never looked like someone who was overmatched by this level of competition. Rather, he seemed like someone who, one he fine-tuned his game, could make a big impact in the league. Well, he's done just that. If I could point to a specific moment where we as fans realized that he might turn out to be more than expected, I think it would be the Duke game at Cameron his first year. He only had 2 points, but they were a loud two points (a vicious slam in transition). But overall he looked like he belonged in his league. He certainly began to prove that his second year. Once again, the Duke game stood out. I was basically right behind the Virginia bench during that game at Cameron. And again, not all that impressive on the statline, but still, he made a significant impact in the game. Fast forward to last year, and surprisingly (yet also somehow completely unsurprisingly) Akil stepped his game up to another level. Most significantly, he became pretty much the best post defender in the ACC. It didn't matter who he was facing; he gave them hell. His most amazing improvement, though, was offensively. From his Sophomore to Junior years, Mitchell went from an average of 4.1 points per game to 13.1. Part on that was due to a significant improvement of his skillset, but perhaps the most impressive way Akil got better was mentally. Akil, better than anyone in the league, knew how to get himself easy buckets. I haven't checked any stats on this (I'm not sure these stats even exist), but I'd be willing to bet he led the ACC in dunks. Some may attribute this to lucky bounces. They couldn't be more wrong. What Akil does is undeniably a skill. He knows where to be and when. He's lethal on rolling of screens, which is where he got most of these dunks. From what we have heard during the offseason, it sounds like we should expect Akil to keep getting better....

"During my drop-in at the Nike Big Man Skills Academy in New Jersey this summer, I thought Mitchell looked just as good, if not better, than bigger pro prospects Willie-Cauley Stein (of Kentucky) and Mitch McGary (of Michigan)." -Luke Winn, SI.com (aka the best hoops writer in the business)




-Anthony Gill: HYPE HYPE HYPE HYPE. 
But seriously, this is the problem with transfers. Whether they're actually good or not, fans will treat them as if they're the second coming of Christ. Do I think the Gill-hype reached somewhat ridiculous levels? Yeah. Is it warranted? From what we've all heard, probably.

I remember talking with a couple of players last summer, after AG had just transferred from South Carolina. While I don't remember their exact words, I do remember how highly they praised him. I more or less interpreted their praise as he was one of if not the best player on the team at the time.

Now that phrase soon became common knowledge, as it seems a number of different sources were saying the same things. While I completely believe what was said to be true, I don't want fans to get the wrong impression. I can imagine a scenario where Gill is the "best" player on the team without the fans realizing it. I'm absolutely stoked to have him and think he will make a HUGE immediate impact, but it might not necessarily translate to big stats. Don't get me wrong, I expect many double-doubles from AG. But the hype has gotten to a point where I think people feel he'll be putting up 20ppg, which just isn't likely to happen. AG will probably have more impact in the win column than any statistical category. 

AG HS Highlights

-Darion Atkins: Once again, we have someone who the fanbase has continually overlooked. Now, in this case, you can't really blame that much given the ridiculous depth of the frontcourt and Darion's injury last season. But at the same time, it's important to remember that before injuring his shin last year, Atkins was playing at essentially an elite level. He was effective on both ends and had shown clear improvement from his first year. His breakout game came against Wisconsin on the road, where he went for 14 and 7. Those numbers are very good, but they don't really tell just how well he played in that game. He was FANTASTIC. And it wasn't a fluke, either. He was playing very good basketball up until he went down with a stress reaction in his shin. For all intents and purposes, that ended his season. It sounds like he's back to 100%. If that's true, then I expect him to play a large role this year. Even though he has been overlooked by many, it's clear that he and Akil had a certain rapport together, that is especially obvious on the defensive end. Darion should be able to use his length and athleticism to frustrate not only his own man, but also whomever he ends up double teaming. I would call Darion our "sleeper" for the year. Personally, I'd start him over Gill because with a frontcourt of Anderson, Mitchell, and Atkins, you have easily the best defensive frontcourt in the nation. But whatever Darion's role ends up being, I expect him to do well. He's been solid his first two years and he has nowhere to go but up.



-Mike Tobey: Possibly the most talented/skilled big Virginia has had in decades. Not much was known about him when he committed, but he quickly made a name for himself on the AAU circuit. After a while, Mike went from unknown to potential future pro. After committing to UVA, Tobey blew up. This was partially due to a huge summer on the AAU circuit, but it also had to do with just his overall talent and potential. After a little while, it became clear that we had stolen Tobey before his name really had gotten out there. While he took some time to get used to the college game, it was obvious from the beginning that Mike possessed a certain, unique skillset that would allow him to be very productive and successful. Eventually, this skillset made him an effective player in league action and eventually earned himself a spot on the U19 National team. While he did not play quite as many minutes as others, he used the experience to better himself, as the stiff competition made him acutely aware of what it takes to become a great player. I think you'll see this experience payoff throughout the course of this season and beyond.



-Evan Nolte: If there was going to be an "odd man out" this season, it might very well be Evan Nolte. Now, this has little to do with his ability or potential. While many fans remember his late season struggles, one must not forget how important he was to the teams success early on in the year. I expect Evan to play a significant role this year simply because of his ability to knock down outside shots. It will be interesting to see how he fits into the team going forward. Bennett had mentioned how they play to work him into the SF role a bit more, but honestly, I see him as a better fit in the post. Either way, we'll need him to knock down outside shots.




Well, there's the breakdown. Be sure to comment or tweet @EmbracePaceUVA.

Go Hoos!

Basketball Eve: How We Got Here

HOW WE GOT HERE:

I distinctly remember when the news broke that Virginia had hired Tony Bennett as its Men's Basketball Coach. My reaction was probably the same as just about every UVA fan. "Huh?" "Who?" After a quick google search, I was able to get as far as, "Oh. That guy from Washington State." The next logical step from there, it seemed, was to ask, "Why?" When Dave Leitao was fired shortly after a miserable 10 win season, I have to admit that I was surprised. It wasn't that I didn't want him gone, but rather I just didn't think it would even cross the minds of the powers that be to get rid of a coach who had just two seasons prior won the ACC Coach of the Year, leading the team to a share of the regular season title, a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and a "would-be" Sweet 16 run if not for an injury to the scorching hot JR Reynolds. Granted, Leitao followed that team up with a squad that started 10-2, only to lose 9 of their last 10 (the first of which a 108-70 thrashing to Xavier), and eventually finish with a mediocre 17-16 record and a CBI appearance. Still, despite the poor stretch of play, especially in ACC action, an above .500 record for a team that had lost one of the programs most productive players in JR Reynolds as well as other starters, wasn't exactly viewed as a complete and utter disaster. However, it turned into just that with the departure of Sean Singletary, and the wheels had officially fallen off. Still, I think most fans expected Littlepage & Co. to give Leitao at least one more chance to prove himself.

Thank God they didn't. After the somewhat surprising firing, Virginia began speculating about whom the next coach might be. Many names were thrown out there, but eventually the general consensus was that it would be Tubby Smith. So while diehard Wahoo fans spent minutes and even hours on their computers, refreshing the Charlottesville Airport's flight tracker, searching for an arrival from Minnesota, Littlepage was working on pulling what was in hindsight, at least, a pretty big upset. At the time, however, it certainly did not seem that way at all.

Ultimately, as fans including myself did some more research and came to get a sense of just who this Tony Bennett guy was, it seemed like most everyone was willing to at least give him a chance. While there were (and somehow still are) some more vocal ones who insisted that this hire guaranteed the program's mediocrity, most were ready to give their support.

The first time I was really introduced to Coach Bennett was when he made his first appearance on Wes McElroy's show on Richmond's Sports Radio AM 910. The thing that stuck out about him, besides his Badger accent, was how he wasn't throwing promises or guarantees out left and right. Rather, he stated his goals for the program through the use of phrases like: "We want to build a successful program, but build it the right way....It is going to take time and I ask for fans to be patient when adversity comes...etc." Those were essentially typical coach speak answers. However, one thing he said really caught my attention. He kept repeating what seemed to be the thesis of his argument: "I want to build a program that lasts." I don't really know why that stuck with me, but it did. But when I look back on those words now, they make perfect sense.

Tony made it clear that he was going to build the program his way, without taking shortcuts, even if that meant some bumps and bruises along the way. Well, it appears as if he was a man of his word. His first season, the team roared out of the gates to a 12-4 (3-0) start, with two consecutive wins over top 25 foes. Despite the unexpected success, Bennett urged fans not to get ahead of ourselves.

But it was too late. Everyone had hopped on onboard the Bennett Bandwagon......Only to be brutally let down once again. People immediately began to (fairly) compare this team to Leitao's 2008-09 one. Doubts arose.

Going into Bennett's second season, gone were Sylven Landesburg, Jeff Jones, Jerome Meyinssee, and Tristan Spurlock. However, in came Bennett's first real recruiting class, and it was a good one at that. An early season injury to Mike Scott was eventually to hard for Bennett's young team to overcome and make it to postseason play. To cap off the year, the Hoos blew a double digit lead in mere minutes against Miami in the ACC Tournament, finishing the season just a game over .500. Still, given crucial injury to Scott, and the overall youth and lack of depth, some fans, including myself were optimistic about Bennett's future.

In the following two seasons, Bennett really established himself. He dealt with adversity, such as transfers and injuries, and found a way to lead his team to about as many wins as fans could have hoped. Even though the team was ranked in the Top 25 for a good chunk of the year, just making the tournament despite all that went wrong was a huge accomplishment. By year's end, the team just was not able to make any sort of a March run, and everyone knew it. But looking back at that year, I kind of treat it as where we turned the corner as a program. We had expectations, though nothing like this year, and for all intents and purposes, we at the very least met them. Then last year, thanks to the highly anticipated 2012 recruiting class as well as the leaps forward by Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, the team really set the stage for where we are now.

We've had some good breaks (Gary Williams retiring) and plenty of bad ones too (transfers, injuries, the 2012 UNC game), but all in all, Tony has been true to his word. It wasn't easy, it wasn't quick, but I think this program is just where Bennett wanted and imagined it to be. While the players certainly have to prove it on the court this year, I think it's safe to say that Tony has built his program.

Now it's time to do something with it.

And So It Begins...

I wasn't surprised by the Iowa game. I knew that we were going to face a really good team and that's exactly what happened. I'm not exaggerating when I say that Iowa team is one of the best teams Virginia has faced all season long. The Hawkeyes were certainly the best defensive team we played all year. Yes, we played Wisconsin, but we caught them at a time where their defense was still a bit raw and coming up to speed. People always talk about Duke's on-ball pressure, but it was nothing compared to the display of Fran McCaffery's boys last week. I don't want to really get into the game too much. Iowa was simply the better team that night. They were playing their best basketball at the end of the year while we had been fading ever since the Duke win. Anyways, this post isn't about that game or this past season. Rather, it's about......

Ahh, yes. It's finally here. I don't know when it began, but some time within the past year or so, UVA fans began to talk about The Future. Specifically, they were referring to the 2013-2014 season. Why? Well for a couple of reasons:

1) The hype surrounding the 2012 recruiting class (featuring 3 ESPNU Top 100 players; 5 commits in total) generated a buzz for the UVA hoops program. The Tobey and Nolte commitments went largely under the radar, but people took notice when Justin Anderson decommitted from Maryland when Gary Williams return and flipped his commitment to Virginia. Anderson may have been the most well know high school basketball player ranked outside the Top 50 in some time (okay some services had him in the Top 50 or barely outside but you get my point). Why is this? Well first off, Anderson was formerly ranked the number one player in his class. When he was going into high school, he (unsurprisingly) dominated because of his freakish athleticism. However, as the rest of the class grew older, quicker, and stronger, Justin could no longer rely on his God-given physical attributes alone. He had to develop an elite level skillset if he was going to retain his ranking. Well, that didn't come easy, as he struggled with his handle and shot, he saw his once elite ranking plummet. I remember watching his film a couple of years ago and saying, "Wow that's nice and all, but can he do anything besides dunk." Fast forward a year or so to his final year on the AAU circuit with Boo Williams. Anderson had a great summer and shower real improvement in multiple areas of his game. Because of this, his ranking crept back up, though not anywhere near the top of the list. Still, his reputation made it so that when he flipped his commitment to UVA, people began to look at the rest of Virginia's class as well.

2) Anthony Gill and Malcolm Brogdon- I'll have more in depth posts this offseason about each individual player and what they bring to the table so I'll just say here that UVA fans realize that they may not just be getting two contributors next year, but they very well may be getting two stars. I don't have a ton of inside info or anything, but I do know that Gill's teammates have been very high on his play in practice this year. Even all the way back in the summer when he had just gotten hear, I was hearing about how good he was. There's been a rumor/inside joke going around the UVA fanbase that Gill is the best player on the team. I can neither confirm nor deny that without seeing him play in person (yeah I saw him in the scrimmage and yeah he was probably the best player on the floor, but that doesn't count). All I'll say is that those within the program are expecting big things from him this year and beyond.

3) We got a PG...sort of. So with the 2012 class, the addition of Gill, and the return of Brogdon, along with veterans Harris, Mitchell, and others, all that seemed to be missing was a PG. Last summer, the biggest issue of controversy and heated debate among UVA fans was without question Tony Bennett's ability to recruit a point guard. There were basically two camps. One, which I considered myself a member of, trusted that Bennett knew what he was doing. The other feared that Tony, with his slow tempo style, would never be able to convince an elite level PG to play his college ball in Charlottesville. After a number of near misses, Virginia finally got what it needed when 2014 Top 100 PG Devon Hall, who's brother is on the football team, agreed to reclassify to his original 2013 class and commit to UVA. This was huge. Many saw this as the missing piece of the puzzle. Everything else was in place to have a legit squad in 2013. Well, not long after that, Bennett offered yet another Top 100 PG, London Perrantes. Ironically, some Virginia fans actually disagreed with this move (probably the same ones attacking Bennett days earlier over never being able to land a PG). Well, Perrantes visited and committed. A short time before then, Virginia had no future at PG. Now it had two high major commits to go along with Teven Jones, who was already in the program. Now, in typical self-deprecating fashion, many Virginia fans seem to have cooled down from that "high" of this summer and are freaking out about PG play. I'll address that in a later post.

4) The final reason for excitement is the most recent one: what happened on the court this year. Now bowing out in the NIT Quarterfinals may not seem like much, but I don't think I'm alone in saying that this year gave Virginia fans a whole bunch of reasons to be even giddier about next year. First off, every single returning player (who was healthy) improved and improved greatly. Coming into the year, the worry was "who would replace Mike Scott" both in terms of post presence and scoring. Well, those questions were pretty much answered about a week or two into the season. It quickly became obvious that both Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell had taken their games up quite a few levels. And it wasn't just them either. Darion Atkins transformed into an undersized, foul happy, one dimensional player into a legitimate ACC starter in just a few months. Some seem to forget this, but before his injury, Atkins was playing incredibly. While Harris was the MVP of that big win up in Madison, Atkins wasn't far behind. He was pretty much dominant in every aspect of the game. He was active on defense and the boards and showed incredibly poise and touch on offense. Finally, people (including myself) tend to give Paul Jesperson a hard time. While some of this is deserved, let's remember something: he turned himself from someone who had to burn a planned Redshirt year halfway through, only to play sparingly, into an everyday starter and defensive stopper in just a few months. Without his defense on some of the ACC's best, we probably don't even sniff the NIT. Yes he needs to have a presence on offense, but given Bennett's track record of making his players better, odds are he might do just that. We also learned this year that the hyped up 2012 class is indeed good. While the play of Justin Anderson and Mike Tobey stood out the most, all 5 freshman showed signs of promise. And not only that, but each of them pretty much single-handedly decided at least one game. If they can all stay healthy, that is gonna be one special group of players.

So there are the reasons for the hype. I'm going to be going into a lot more depth on a bunch of these topics this offseason so I'll cut it off there. But I do want to bring up one more thing (which really led me to write this post in the first place). This evening I watched a google hangout of the ACC Digital Network where a couple of ACC columnists (unsurprisingly all from the Triad and yes I have no life). In this video, the group discussed a variety of topics ranging from NCST's recent implosion, which ACC players were returning or NBA bound, and what the ACC would look like next year. What struck me was that Virginia wasn't mentioned a single time in the entire video. There was even a question of "Who do you think will be next year's version of Miami?". The answers from the "experts"?

1) Maryland, but only if Len returns.
2) Georgia Tech
3) Boston College

Uhhh, what? Maryland I can totally understand. They've got a ton of talent coming back next year. Does that really hinge on Len though? While Len may be an elite NBA prospect, that doesn't necessarily make him a really good college player. I think Maryland is going to be dangerous regardless of whether Len returns (he won't). I think you could even make a case for them being a better team next year without him. He doesn't really seem to fit with the rest of that team. I look at their roster and see a bunch of big, strong, physical, and athletic guys who like to get out in transition. Len is the odd-ball. Even if you lose Len, you still have Charles Mitchell, Shaq Cleare, Damonte Dodd, and even Jake Layman. Those guys go together. Add that with a very solid backcourt led by freshman Roddy Peters, Nick Faust, and Dez Wells, you got yourself a team. So yes, I like the Maryland pick, but if you think that Len's decision determines their fate for next year, you're just not looking at the big picture.

Georgia Tech? I mean, I guess they have a couple of decent players and pulled off some upsets, but how do you expect them to rack up any significant wins in next year's ACC? That's just not gonna happen. They'll be improved, but so will a lot of teams.

Now the BC pick I also get, but for different reasons. It's you're typical "cute" pick. Just like Baseball America is enamored with VT this year and rooting for them to prove them right, there'll be some like this "expert" who will root for BC to shock the world. But aren't Virginia and Maryland just extremely more talented and deeper versions of BC? Why not just pick them. The only reason one would pick them is because they A) Have some young talent in Olivier Hanlan and Ryan Anderson and B) Are well coached. I think BC is gonna be a good team next year. I really do. But I just don't know how anyone thinks they're really gonna stick with Cuse, UNC, Duke, UVA, Maryland, etc. I see them as a bubble team, not "next year's Miami".

This leads me to my main question. Are people just not aware about Virginia? Now I didn't expect people to come out and predict us to win the ACC or anything, but I felt like we were gonna be a pretty damn sexy pick this offseason. Maybe they are aware, do they really think teams like Maryland, BC, and GT are gonna be better? Now I know that our style makes it so that we can be a hard team to get behind but still, I just don't get that. And let me point out that I don't really care. I'm not gonna say "I could care less" whether we get some preseason media love. I'm a human. It'd be pretty neat to see UVA being talked about and having some relevance in the college basketball world. But it won't bother me if we're ignored. Heck, I think it'd be a good thing. Go ahead. Give guys like Justin Anderson and Akil Mitchell some fuel to add to their fires. Could be exactly what we need. So, let me reiterate that being ignored doesn't bother me so much as it confuses me.

I know I'm extremely biased, but I just don't know how you can look at this and not be impressed:

	6'1	PG	London	Perrantes	Freshman
	6'6	SG	Paul	Jesperson	Junior
	6'5	PG	Devon	Hall	Freshman
	6'4	SG	Taylor	Barnette	Sophomore
	6'1	PG	Teven	Jones	Sophomore
	6'11	C	Mike	Tobey	Sophomore
	6'8	SF	Evan	Nolte	Sophomore
	6'6	SF/SG	Joe	Harris	Senior
	6'8	PF	Anthony	Gill	Sophomore
	6'5	SG/PG	Malcolm	Brogdon	Sophomore
	6'6	SF	Justin	Anderson	Sophomore
	6'8	PF/C	Akil	Mitchell	Senior
	6'8	PF	Darion	Atkins	Junior

Iowa Scouting Report:

So, for a couple of reasons, I basically decided to take this year off (not that anyone really noticed). Well, I'm trying to make a comeback. Yeah, I know. We might only have one game left this year. But still, I figured I'd be upset with myself if I quit this after just one season. So the plan is to try and finish out this year a post some off season recruiting and prediction stuff, and then try and keep it going through next season (which will be my last year here at UVA). I have a feeling that there'll be enough blogworthy material next year to keep me motivated, but that's a topic for another day.


Anyways, Iowa. First of all, as Coach Bennett indicated in the postgame presser following yesterday's win over St. John's, Iowa is a really good team. Bennett suggested that they might be one of the best squads we face all year and I tend to agree with that. Not only were they a few close games away from making the NCAA Tournament, but they were also really a few close games away from being a pretty damn good seed.

Dec 31	vs #5 IND	L 69-65

Jan 10

vs #22 MSU

L 62-59

Jan 22	@ #14 OSU	L 72-63

Jan 27

@ PUR

L 65-62 OT

Feb 3	@ #23 MINN	L 62-59
Feb 6	@ WIS	L 74-70 2OT

Feb 23

@ NEB

L 64-60

Mar 15

vs #8 MSU*

L 59-56

Just look at those close losses. If one or two go the other way, they're dancing. Three or four? They're a lock and a decent seed. Now the 9 point OSU loss in Columbus may not seem "close", until you look at the box score. Iowa trailed 53-29 with 12:48 left. With a minute left, the score was 63-59 Buckeyes. They went on a 30-10 run against the eventual Big Ten Champs in their own house. That alone is worthy of taking notice.

Enough about their losses, let's look at their wins.

Dec 7	vs ISU	W 80-71

Jan 19

vs WIS

W 70-66

Feb 17	vs MINN	W 72-51

Mar 5

vs ILL

W 63-55

*

Four very good wins against tourney teams. The trend? They were obviously all at home. Like Virginia, it was likely Iowa's inability to win on the road that kept them out of the dance. But if you look at the table of Losses above, it is clear that the Hawkeyes didn't exactly roll over on the road. While they weren't able to get that quality road win, they came damn near close. In fact the only two road blowouts were against Michigan and Virginia Tech. No that's not a typo.

Iowa 79

(5-2, 0-1 away)

Virginia Tech 95

(6-0, 5-0 home)

Coverage: ESPNU

7:15 PM ET, November 27, 2012

Cassell Coliseum, Blacksburg, VA

	1	2	T
IOWA	38	41	79
VT	46	49	95

Top Performers

Iowa: R. Marble 18 Pts, 7 Reb, 7 Ast

Virginia Tech: E. Green 24 Pts, 5 Reb, 5 Ast, 2 Stl

**

I watched this game. It was a sort of "perfect storm" for both teams. It was a good sort of perfect storm for the Hokies, as they were in the midst of their hot streak and Iowa let them get away with pushing the tempo. If Iowa had tried to slow it down (even though that's not really they're game), I don't think there's any way Tech could've stopped them on defense. Maybe VT still would've won, but it would've been much closer. It was a bad perfect storm for Iowa just because they were coming off their first loss of the year to Wichita State in the Cancun Tournament. And let's be real here, it's unfair to expect much out of a team that has to go from Cancun....

***

....to Blacksburg in November:

We can understandably forgive them for that loss.

But seriously, you can throw away that game just like you can throw away the ODU, GMU, and Delaware games for us. The team that lost of VT won't be there on Wednesday, neither will the one that went 0-3 against the CAA. The fact is that both teams are greatly improved (and healthier).

Projected Starters:

6'8 Akil Mitchell           7'1 Adam Woodbury
6'6 Justin Anderson       6'7 Melsahn Basabe
6'6 Joe Harris                6'8 Aaron White
6'5 Paul Jesperson         6'6 Roy Devyn Marble
5'11 Jontel Evans          6'1 Mike Gesell

Matchups:

Woodbury starts for Iowa, but I imagine that might just be to win the opening tip because he rarely plays over 20 minutes. When he's out, they could either go small by putting guys like 6'5 wing Eric May or 6'5 wing/shooter Josh Oglesby in. Or, they could play a bigger lineup, replacing Woodbury with 6'10 Gabriel Olaseni or 6'7 Zach McCabe. I'm not totally sure which direction they'll go. They're a deep team that likes to use a bunch of different guys, so I'd imagine they'll try out a couple lineups and see what works. But looking at the matchups, I'll  focus on the guys most likely to see the floor.

I think we'll see a good bit of Mitchell on Basabe. Frankly, when I look at their both of their games, I see some similarities. Both are a bit undersized and rely on their quickness and athleticism to be effective on both ends. Basable is just that, quick and athletic. He likes to dunk the ball and protect the rim. He won't shoot from outside, but he's pretty effective inside the paint. He's not a big scorer, but he's also not a guy you can forget about. If you give him easy ones, he can put 15 or so on you in a hurry. He also seems like a guy who will draw contact and get to the line. I'll give the edge here to Akil, though, just because he's not going to be the least bit phased after the guys he's faced all year. Obviously, Basabe has gone against some of the best bigs in the country as well, but I doubt he's drawn the kind of assignments Akil gets on a nightly basis. I expect Basabe to be active on defense and try to frustrate Akil down low, but at the end of the day, I just think Akil is the better player. He's been playing good basketball recently (with the exception of the NSU game) and I expect that to continue against Iowa.

The next big matchup will be on the wings. Now these could go a number of different ways. All I know is that Jesperson likely won't guard White. Other than that, I could see Harris and Anderson (and maybe even Nolte) on either White, Marble, McCabe, or May. White is probably the guy that scares the most on this Iowa team. He's a big, athletic wing that can hurt you in a bunch of different ways. He's a physical player that uses his size and athleticism to his advantage. He can step out and hit shots from the outside, but I think his strength is taking it to the rim. I think we'll see Anderson on him when May is in the game. Otherwise, I think Joe may try and handle this matchup. He's a bit smaller than White, but Joe has handled matchups like that plenty of other times. One thing to be aware of concerning White is that he's very good at getting to the line, so whoever guards him will have to stay out of foul trouble.

The other main matchup on the wing will be whoever guards Iowa's top scorer, Roy Devyn Marble. Again, this will depend on who guards White and whether Iowa goes small with May and Oglesby, or big with Olaseni and McCabe. Still, I have a feeling we'll see Jesperson on Marble for a good portion of the game. The thing that most concerns me about Marble is if he heats from outside. He's not a great 3 point shooter, at least when it comes to consistency, but when he's feeling it, he can be really dangerous. Now, this hasn't really happened too much this year, but if there was a team where it could happen against, I feel like it would be UVA. Out of all of Virginia's wings, Paul does the best job closing out and denying open shots from range. He's not perfect at this, but still, he has shown the ability to frustrate opposing shooters. Still, Jesperson will have to work to prevent Marble from getting into the lane. Hopefully, the pack line will prevent some of his dribble penetration. In one of the two games against Wisconsin, he went 1-10 from the floor for just 2 points. We'll have to hope for a similar night.

At point guard, the matchup is pretty much set in stone. For most of the game, it'll be Jontel Evans vs. Mike Gesell. Some of you may remember Gesell's name. This is because he was firmly on Virginia's recruiting radar, though Bennett never officially offered. I really, really liked his game in high school. I never really knew why we never offered. There was a time where I felt that if we did indeed offer, we would've had a good chance. Ultimately, I don't know how likely that would have been once his friend and AAU teammate Adam Woodbury committed to the Hawkeyes (though one could make the case that Woodbury wouldn't be at Iowa without Gesell). Anyways, I still really like Mike's game. He has nice size, strength, and quickness. He can handle the ball, make good decisions and passes, and knock down shots both from deep and from around the foul line. All in all, he's just a really solid PG. Bub could frustrate him and defense, but still, I expect Gesell to have a good game. I don't think he'll really determine the game, unless he either has an uncharacteristically good or bad game. I think Evans is a step quicker, so hopefully he'll be able to get to the rack a few times.

As far as the bench goes, as I mentioned above, Iowa uses a bunch of bodies. You can expect 9-10 guys to see time for the Hawkeyes. However, I feel that the only real guys on the bench to take note of are Eric May and Zach McCabe, and to a lesser extent, Josh Oglesby. Now May has seen a bit more time than Gesell recently, so you may see more of him against Evans. May is a big, very athletic guard with great size. He's much more of a wing or combo guard than a true point guard, but you may see him play some point on Wednesday. He's good at getting past his defender and either pulling up for a shot, dishing to a teammate, or taking it to the basket. McCabe's a guy who seems to like to step in the game and take a couple of threes. He's got a nice shot that Virginia will have to be ready for. He's also got good size and could create some matchup issues. We might see Nolte on him for a bit. Now Woodbury isn't technically on the bench, but it might feel like it. I'm assuming we'll see Tobey play when Woodbury's on the floor. Otherwise, I think we might see Darion get some run. As far as the Tobey-Woodbury matchup, I like Mike. Woodbury's gonna be a very good player, but I think he's not quite at the level Tobey is. Mike has faced and succeeded against better and more experienced guys than Woodbury. It'll be interesting to see if Tobey can get in a rhythm like he did against St. John's.

Now I've written at length about matchups, but I really think this game will come down to how the Hawkeyes try and defend. I have a feeling they'll try and go zone, like we've seen with Maryland, NSU, and St. John's recently. It seems like Joe seems to struggle to assert himself against the zone. I think this is because his biggest strength is the way he moves without the ball and creates separation from a chasing defender. Against a zone, there is no chasing defender. Don't get me wrong. His game can still be very effective against a zone, it's just that he's just not as used to it. Still, in the past couple games, while he hasn't been scoring as much, he has been doing a good job of breaking the zone down and creating opportunity for teammates. I have a feeling he'll have a better night against the Hawkeyes. Still, overall, I think this game comes down to how UVA executes on offense. I think the game will be a tough grind. We'll want to slow it down, they'll want to run, and it'll likely fall somewhere in the middle.

Keys for Virginia to win the game:
1) Rebound the ball- Iowa is a big, athletic, and active team that can potentially dominate on the glass. Virginia didn't do a good enough job on the boards against St. John's. If they have a similar showing, it they'll probably lose. UVA must be especially aware of Iowa's guards crashing the boards.
2) Create good shots and knock 'em down- This is key to just about every game, but if they go zone, it's an even bigger deal. As we've seen recently, we seem to prefer playing against man rather than zone. If they do go zone, we must be opportunistic and capitalize on the opportunities we do create, because they may be fewer than we would against man.

I'm not going to give a real prediction other than the fact that I like UVA's chances at home against anyone. It wouldn't surprise me if Virginia lost to Iowa, but still, given Iowa's struggles on the road and our success at home, there are reasons to feel confident.


*http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2294/iowa-hawkeyes
** http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=323320259
*** http://wfiles.brothersoft.com/c/cancun-island_95633-1920x1200.jpg
**** https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4S2MnXOZIOVLJMQCEi2xD6PVsYNapMq9zRfphscooIVIBsrNxtR595Dm5qCl03EaG7qpbYVCbGqNZbQ8-2N3-fOrKAVOhxwv5UpS7H9EsLuciFICKUsrIxipB3t1DegHvaqsZPfqoWWg/s200/cassell+coliseum+j.jpg