As most of you already know, this is one of those "something's gotta give" matchups. Carolina loves to speed the game up and score a lot of points, while Virginia tries to control the games tempo, making it a half-court contest. Tomorrow's game will truly be a battle of wills. Without a doubt, Tony Bennett has spent the past couple of days in practice emphasizing to his team the necessity of getting back, setting the defense, and preventing the Tar Heels from getting easy transition buckets. This is the key to the game. If Virginia is able to set their defense and make Carolina run an offense every possession, they will likely win the game. UNC is built to run up and down the court, so when you deny them that and make them set their offense, they really struggle. Sure, they are still able to score, but usually it is a result of their superior talent or size advantage. Because of this, most non-transition shots they end up taking are not exactly "good looks". Let's start our look at the Tar Heels by seeing what happens when you don't get back in transition and set your defense.
This clip is from the Wisconsin game earlier this season. The Badgers are a very, very similar team to Coach Bennett's club, as they emphasize defense and tempo above all else. In this sequence, a Wisconsin guard takes a poor shot from three (although he was open) off of a ball screen with 28 seconds remaining on the Shot Clock.
As you can see, after he shoots the ball, the Badgers try and crash the offensive glass, sending three guys into the paint. This is a huge "no-no" against the Tar Heels, because if you don't get that rebound, it's pretty much a guaranteed 2 points for the Heels on the other end.
Zeller finally secures the rebound, and Carolina is off and running.
Zeller outlets the ball to Kendall Marshall. At the time Marshall gets the ball at around the free throw line, there are still 4 Badgers on the UNC end of the floor. This means trouble for Wisconsin, as it means that they will not have a chance to set their defense.
When you play UNC and you are trying to prevent them from scoring in transition, a good rule to follow is that you must try to have your defense as close to set by the time the ball crosses half court as possible. As it is clear in this frame, when Marshall crosses half court, the Badgers are nowhere near set. They have four defenders outside of the three point line. Marshall notices this and looks to get the ball ahead to Harrison Barnes, who is just so dangerous in these situations.
Jordan Taylor on Wisconsin gets to Barnes about two steps late, just about guaranteeing him an easy shot.
Barnes takes one dribble, pulls up, and hits a shot that he'll make just about 90% of the time.
Getting the defense set will be the key to the game. If Virginia can do this successfully, I think they will have a great shot to win. Carolina is really not a great half court team and Bennett's Pack Line Defense will likely frustrate the Tar Heels, causing them to turn the ball over.
Now let's look at what our plan is on offense. Now we understand that our offense pretty much goes as far as Mike Scott takes it. If he's off, we're not going to win. Thankfully, he has found a way to contribute in every single game. No team has found a real answer to him. While Henson's length might frustrate him a little, I don't think it will affect his performance all that much. Going up against Kenny Kadji on Miami earlier in the year was a great preview for Mike as to what to expect from Henson's defense. So, I'm not going to focus on Mike, as I expect him to get his. What really stuck out about UNC's defense when I watched game film was their inability to defend ball screens. So I'm going to go back to the FSU game last weekend, where for a brief stretch, Jontel Evans looked unstoppable off of the high ball screen.
On this first play, Mike Scott comes up to to set a high ball screen for Bub. Now, it is very important that Mike is the screener, as it forces the defense to pay attention to him after the screen, if he were to either roll to the basket or pop out for a jumper. If this were Akil or Darion, more attention would but paid to Jontel. Anyways, Jontel sizes up the defense after the screen. FSU does not hedge (likely a result of worrying about Scott) so for a moment, Bernard James is covering Jontel.
Bub realizes this mismatch and looks to get into the lane in order to further disrupt the Seminoles' defense.
At this point, Evans's man realizes there's no way he could possibly catch up to him, so he calls for the switch. Jontel decides to take it at James, realizing that the only way he is going to be stopped from getting to the basket is by an off-ball help defender stepping over, because James has no chance of keeping up with his quickness.
Bub sees that Joe Harris's man (I believe Okaro White) is closely watching where Evans is planning on taking the ball. So Jontel decides to go right at White. Doing as any shooter should, Harris slides over to the wing and sets his feet on the three point line.
Evans gives him a good path, allowing Joe to get a shot in rythym, knocking down a very important trey.
In this next sequence, Virginia goes with the exact same look. Scott comes out to set the high ball screen on Evans's man.
Jontel is fully aware that the defense knows how he broke them down off of the same ball screen just two possessions before, so he decides to set them up. He drives toward the screen then crosses over to the other side. Now, his defender is a good couple of steps behind him.
As he gets inside of the arc, Zeglinski's man, Michael Snaer, steps over to prevent the penetration. Bub sees him and prepares for his next move.
Snaer, remembering how Evans had just kicked the ball out to Harris for the three bites on Bub's fake to Zeglinski in the corner (also, Snaer might have been expecting Virginia to try and tie the game up from behind the arc).
This is a move that Jontel has practiced probably thousands of times and he executes it to perfection, giving himself an easy layup.
If Bub can do this against FSU, who is usually great on ball screens, he should have no problem doing it against a much lazier Carolina defense. With Dexter Strickland out, UNC doesn't have anyone on the roster to match up with Jontel's quickness. Combine that with Zeller, Henson, and McAdoo's lack of commitment on defending screens, and it should provide an opportunity for the Cavaliers to find good looks for players not named Mike Scott.
Hopefully, this film breakdown gives some insight into the matchup between the Hoos and the Heels. Obviously, UNC has a huge talent advantage. If they are able to run the ball and get buckets in transition, it will be a long day. But I really like Virginia's chances controlling the tempo in this one. Wisconsin nearly pulled it off in November. I think we are a better team than them and match up better with the Heels, especially in the post, where UNC had a huge athletic advantage over the Badgers. Now, although I've sounded very optimistic, I'm still going to predict a Loss for the Hoos. I just can't see UNC losing two at home. I'm afraid that Akil and Darion will get in foul trouble on Zeller, Henson, and McAdoo. We're going to have to shoot well, rebound, control the tempo, and stay out of foul trouble. It's possible, but it's a lot to ask from this team. I'll go ahead as call a 67-61 win for the Tar Heels.
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