I didn't even really think Virginia's defense played that poorly. Early on, Mitchell and Atkins were completely overwhelmed by Leslie. Once Akil settled in, he did a much better job. I'm still a little frustrated that the refs never whistled Leslie for a hook (he did it on just about every one of his shots). That's a call that UNC and Duke get without hesitation. If they called an early hook on Leslie (there are three that instantly come to my mind), then he probably would have done it less, since he ended up in some foul trouble anyways. Concerning Brown, I thought Jontel did a good job, but the pack line didn't help him out enough. Maybe Bennett was just so concerned with Leslie, Howell, and Wood that he basically told Jontel that he would have to put Brown on "Bub Island", who knows. Brown also hit a couple of tough shots that he doesn't normally hit. I think his size advantage over Evans proved more important than I had anticipated.
Still, I wouldn't say we played horribly. We've shot worse and won; we've turned the ball over more and won; we've defended worse and won. I think it just came down to yet another instance where we just don't have the personnel to win games late. In an end of game situation, we're very predictable. The obvious choice is to give it to Scott, but that isn't as much of a no brainer as many assume. First of all, at the end of the game, you have to assume that you're not going to get a foul call. Scott's defenders know this and know they could be even more physical than earlier in the game. Also, with a big time player like Mike, it's almost too predictable to give him the ball and let him do his thing. The defense will see that coming. The defense also knows that the ball most likely won't be going to Mitchell, especially if they watched the FSU tape where he dropped the pass from Zeglinski. They're also aware that Sammy will likely sit on the outside and try to get a look at a three. So that leaves them to worry about Harris and Evans. With his broken hand, Harris is less of a threat to create his own shot and is most likely going to have to use a screen (which is what happened yesterday). The last option is for Jontel to drive. While predictable, it's hard to stop. But still, it's a risky shot, given his size. I think Virginia has really missed Brogdon the past couple of games. They need a guard who create different types of shots for himself.
I'll close with saying that Mike Scott is the best player in the ACC. Just look at how much harder he has to work for his shots. Zeller, once again, didn't have to work for any of his points. They all came pretty much uncontested, within 5 feet of the hoop. Now don't get me wrong, much of this is due to his fantastic instinct and great positioning, but still, I just don't see the evidence that he is a better player than Scott. Mike has the full attention of the opposing team's defense. He probably gets fouled on 90% of the shots he takes, yet doesn't get all of the calls Zeller gets. Against Maryland, a team with virtually no frontcourt, Zeller went for 22, 30, and 14 in three games. But he only hit 7, 5, and 4 FG's. Compare that to Mike's 25 and 35 in two games on 10 and 11 FG's each. Both are great players, but Mike deserves POY as much as Zeller, if not more. If there ever was a year for Co-POY.....
Bubble Watch:
Okay, I, like many of the "experts:, believe that we are "in", despite yesterday's loss. We have just too clean of a resume (one great win, some very good wins, especially on the road, and no terrible losses) and the bubble is just so bad that I can't see how the committee would leave us out. The only reason I could think of is that they don't think we are a good enough team with all of our injuries. If we we're getting blown out down the stretch, I could buy this. But we've shown that we can still be more than competitive with any team in the country, despite our thin lineup. Plus, our defense will likely be even more difficult to a team that hasn't faced it before. Because of these factors, I'm not really sweating. Here's some more evidence:
I went and made a list of all of the teams who might make the NCAA Tournament. I divided them into two groups: Locks/Already Clinched and Bubble. My "locks" are the teams that nobody is even considering to be on the bubble (ie we're not a "lock"). This gave me a list of 49 teams. So that leaves 18 spots left for the bubble teams to fight over. Here's the RPI Breakdown:
Bubble (32 for 18 spots):
Southern Miss-19
Colorado State-27
California-36
Iona-41
Marshall-42
BYU-44
Purdue-45
Xavier-45
Texas-48
NCST-49
Oral Roberts-50
Virginia-52
USF-53
Ole Miss-54
WVU-56
MTSU-57
Northwestern-60
Miami-61
Nevada-63
Oregon-64
Drexel-66
Seton Hall-67
Dayton->68
Arizona->68
Washington-68
Mississippi State->68
Tennessee->68
So even if you only go off of RPI, which is not our strong suit right now, we're still comfortably "in". Obviously, some of these teams are still playing, so they have opportunities to help or hurt their RPI's. I think our RPI will end up somewhere around 50. The only team behind UVA on this list that I think could have the potential to jump us is WVU and USF.
However, I think Virginia will jump some teams in front of it. First of all, despite yesterday, I think UVA still has a stronger resume than NCST. Virginia has 7 Top 100 wins, 3 of those on the road, one neutral, and 4 by double digits. NCST has 6 Top 100 wins, one of those on the road, three neutral, none of them by more than 5 points. Virginia also has a 12 point win against #10 Michigan, NCST doesn't have anything close to that. NCST also has the same loss to Clemson on the road, which was our only "bad loss" (we also beat Clemson, they only played them once). NCST also has an 11 point home loss to #195 Georgia Tech. Basically the only reason why NCST's RPI isn't in the 70's is because they played Syracuse and Vandy.
Virginia should also jump Oral Roberts (3 T100 Wins, 2 T50, 2 sub150 losses), BYU (5 T100 wins, 1 T50, no impressive road wins), and Iona (5 T100 wins, 0 T50, 3 sub 150 losses, 2 sub 200 losses). Personally, I think we'll jump some others, but I was just being conservative here.
Most experts have us more comfortably in than this "math" shows, but my point is, even if you try and create a worst case scenario, there's just no real way to leave Virginia out. Our combination of good wins (one great), road wins, double digit wins, no real bad losses, and some impressive close losses is something not many teams have.
Stop by before the selection show. I'll do some last minute Blind Resumes tomorrow after the ACC Tournament Final.
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