Iowa Scouting Report:

So, for a couple of reasons, I basically decided to take this year off (not that anyone really noticed). Well, I'm trying to make a comeback. Yeah, I know. We might only have one game left this year. But still, I figured I'd be upset with myself if I quit this after just one season. So the plan is to try and finish out this year a post some off season recruiting and prediction stuff, and then try and keep it going through next season (which will be my last year here at UVA). I have a feeling that there'll be enough blogworthy material next year to keep me motivated, but that's a topic for another day.


Anyways, Iowa. First of all, as Coach Bennett indicated in the postgame presser following yesterday's win over St. John's, Iowa is a really good team. Bennett suggested that they might be one of the best squads we face all year and I tend to agree with that. Not only were they a few close games away from making the NCAA Tournament, but they were also really a few close games away from being a pretty damn good seed.

Dec 31	vs #5 IND	L 69-65

Jan 10

vs #22 MSU

L 62-59

Jan 22	@ #14 OSU	L 72-63

Jan 27

@ PUR

L 65-62 OT

Feb 3	@ #23 MINN	L 62-59
Feb 6	@ WIS	L 74-70 2OT

Feb 23

@ NEB

L 64-60

Mar 15

vs #8 MSU*

L 59-56

Just look at those close losses. If one or two go the other way, they're dancing. Three or four? They're a lock and a decent seed. Now the 9 point OSU loss in Columbus may not seem "close", until you look at the box score. Iowa trailed 53-29 with 12:48 left. With a minute left, the score was 63-59 Buckeyes. They went on a 30-10 run against the eventual Big Ten Champs in their own house. That alone is worthy of taking notice.

Enough about their losses, let's look at their wins.

Dec 7	vs ISU	W 80-71

Jan 19

vs WIS

W 70-66

Feb 17	vs MINN	W 72-51

Mar 5

vs ILL

W 63-55

*

Four very good wins against tourney teams. The trend? They were obviously all at home. Like Virginia, it was likely Iowa's inability to win on the road that kept them out of the dance. But if you look at the table of Losses above, it is clear that the Hawkeyes didn't exactly roll over on the road. While they weren't able to get that quality road win, they came damn near close. In fact the only two road blowouts were against Michigan and Virginia Tech. No that's not a typo.

Iowa 79

(5-2, 0-1 away)

Virginia Tech 95

(6-0, 5-0 home)

Coverage: ESPNU

7:15 PM ET, November 27, 2012

Cassell Coliseum, Blacksburg, VA

	1	2	T
IOWA	38	41	79
VT	46	49	95

Top Performers

Iowa: R. Marble 18 Pts, 7 Reb, 7 Ast

Virginia Tech: E. Green 24 Pts, 5 Reb, 5 Ast, 2 Stl

**

I watched this game. It was a sort of "perfect storm" for both teams. It was a good sort of perfect storm for the Hokies, as they were in the midst of their hot streak and Iowa let them get away with pushing the tempo. If Iowa had tried to slow it down (even though that's not really they're game), I don't think there's any way Tech could've stopped them on defense. Maybe VT still would've won, but it would've been much closer. It was a bad perfect storm for Iowa just because they were coming off their first loss of the year to Wichita State in the Cancun Tournament. And let's be real here, it's unfair to expect much out of a team that has to go from Cancun....

***

....to Blacksburg in November:

We can understandably forgive them for that loss.

But seriously, you can throw away that game just like you can throw away the ODU, GMU, and Delaware games for us. The team that lost of VT won't be there on Wednesday, neither will the one that went 0-3 against the CAA. The fact is that both teams are greatly improved (and healthier).

Projected Starters:

6'8 Akil Mitchell           7'1 Adam Woodbury
6'6 Justin Anderson       6'7 Melsahn Basabe
6'6 Joe Harris                6'8 Aaron White
6'5 Paul Jesperson         6'6 Roy Devyn Marble
5'11 Jontel Evans          6'1 Mike Gesell

Matchups:

Woodbury starts for Iowa, but I imagine that might just be to win the opening tip because he rarely plays over 20 minutes. When he's out, they could either go small by putting guys like 6'5 wing Eric May or 6'5 wing/shooter Josh Oglesby in. Or, they could play a bigger lineup, replacing Woodbury with 6'10 Gabriel Olaseni or 6'7 Zach McCabe. I'm not totally sure which direction they'll go. They're a deep team that likes to use a bunch of different guys, so I'd imagine they'll try out a couple lineups and see what works. But looking at the matchups, I'll  focus on the guys most likely to see the floor.

I think we'll see a good bit of Mitchell on Basabe. Frankly, when I look at their both of their games, I see some similarities. Both are a bit undersized and rely on their quickness and athleticism to be effective on both ends. Basable is just that, quick and athletic. He likes to dunk the ball and protect the rim. He won't shoot from outside, but he's pretty effective inside the paint. He's not a big scorer, but he's also not a guy you can forget about. If you give him easy ones, he can put 15 or so on you in a hurry. He also seems like a guy who will draw contact and get to the line. I'll give the edge here to Akil, though, just because he's not going to be the least bit phased after the guys he's faced all year. Obviously, Basabe has gone against some of the best bigs in the country as well, but I doubt he's drawn the kind of assignments Akil gets on a nightly basis. I expect Basabe to be active on defense and try to frustrate Akil down low, but at the end of the day, I just think Akil is the better player. He's been playing good basketball recently (with the exception of the NSU game) and I expect that to continue against Iowa.

The next big matchup will be on the wings. Now these could go a number of different ways. All I know is that Jesperson likely won't guard White. Other than that, I could see Harris and Anderson (and maybe even Nolte) on either White, Marble, McCabe, or May. White is probably the guy that scares the most on this Iowa team. He's a big, athletic wing that can hurt you in a bunch of different ways. He's a physical player that uses his size and athleticism to his advantage. He can step out and hit shots from the outside, but I think his strength is taking it to the rim. I think we'll see Anderson on him when May is in the game. Otherwise, I think Joe may try and handle this matchup. He's a bit smaller than White, but Joe has handled matchups like that plenty of other times. One thing to be aware of concerning White is that he's very good at getting to the line, so whoever guards him will have to stay out of foul trouble.

The other main matchup on the wing will be whoever guards Iowa's top scorer, Roy Devyn Marble. Again, this will depend on who guards White and whether Iowa goes small with May and Oglesby, or big with Olaseni and McCabe. Still, I have a feeling we'll see Jesperson on Marble for a good portion of the game. The thing that most concerns me about Marble is if he heats from outside. He's not a great 3 point shooter, at least when it comes to consistency, but when he's feeling it, he can be really dangerous. Now, this hasn't really happened too much this year, but if there was a team where it could happen against, I feel like it would be UVA. Out of all of Virginia's wings, Paul does the best job closing out and denying open shots from range. He's not perfect at this, but still, he has shown the ability to frustrate opposing shooters. Still, Jesperson will have to work to prevent Marble from getting into the lane. Hopefully, the pack line will prevent some of his dribble penetration. In one of the two games against Wisconsin, he went 1-10 from the floor for just 2 points. We'll have to hope for a similar night.

At point guard, the matchup is pretty much set in stone. For most of the game, it'll be Jontel Evans vs. Mike Gesell. Some of you may remember Gesell's name. This is because he was firmly on Virginia's recruiting radar, though Bennett never officially offered. I really, really liked his game in high school. I never really knew why we never offered. There was a time where I felt that if we did indeed offer, we would've had a good chance. Ultimately, I don't know how likely that would have been once his friend and AAU teammate Adam Woodbury committed to the Hawkeyes (though one could make the case that Woodbury wouldn't be at Iowa without Gesell). Anyways, I still really like Mike's game. He has nice size, strength, and quickness. He can handle the ball, make good decisions and passes, and knock down shots both from deep and from around the foul line. All in all, he's just a really solid PG. Bub could frustrate him and defense, but still, I expect Gesell to have a good game. I don't think he'll really determine the game, unless he either has an uncharacteristically good or bad game. I think Evans is a step quicker, so hopefully he'll be able to get to the rack a few times.

As far as the bench goes, as I mentioned above, Iowa uses a bunch of bodies. You can expect 9-10 guys to see time for the Hawkeyes. However, I feel that the only real guys on the bench to take note of are Eric May and Zach McCabe, and to a lesser extent, Josh Oglesby. Now May has seen a bit more time than Gesell recently, so you may see more of him against Evans. May is a big, very athletic guard with great size. He's much more of a wing or combo guard than a true point guard, but you may see him play some point on Wednesday. He's good at getting past his defender and either pulling up for a shot, dishing to a teammate, or taking it to the basket. McCabe's a guy who seems to like to step in the game and take a couple of threes. He's got a nice shot that Virginia will have to be ready for. He's also got good size and could create some matchup issues. We might see Nolte on him for a bit. Now Woodbury isn't technically on the bench, but it might feel like it. I'm assuming we'll see Tobey play when Woodbury's on the floor. Otherwise, I think we might see Darion get some run. As far as the Tobey-Woodbury matchup, I like Mike. Woodbury's gonna be a very good player, but I think he's not quite at the level Tobey is. Mike has faced and succeeded against better and more experienced guys than Woodbury. It'll be interesting to see if Tobey can get in a rhythm like he did against St. John's.

Now I've written at length about matchups, but I really think this game will come down to how the Hawkeyes try and defend. I have a feeling they'll try and go zone, like we've seen with Maryland, NSU, and St. John's recently. It seems like Joe seems to struggle to assert himself against the zone. I think this is because his biggest strength is the way he moves without the ball and creates separation from a chasing defender. Against a zone, there is no chasing defender. Don't get me wrong. His game can still be very effective against a zone, it's just that he's just not as used to it. Still, in the past couple games, while he hasn't been scoring as much, he has been doing a good job of breaking the zone down and creating opportunity for teammates. I have a feeling he'll have a better night against the Hawkeyes. Still, overall, I think this game comes down to how UVA executes on offense. I think the game will be a tough grind. We'll want to slow it down, they'll want to run, and it'll likely fall somewhere in the middle.

Keys for Virginia to win the game:
1) Rebound the ball- Iowa is a big, athletic, and active team that can potentially dominate on the glass. Virginia didn't do a good enough job on the boards against St. John's. If they have a similar showing, it they'll probably lose. UVA must be especially aware of Iowa's guards crashing the boards.
2) Create good shots and knock 'em down- This is key to just about every game, but if they go zone, it's an even bigger deal. As we've seen recently, we seem to prefer playing against man rather than zone. If they do go zone, we must be opportunistic and capitalize on the opportunities we do create, because they may be fewer than we would against man.

I'm not going to give a real prediction other than the fact that I like UVA's chances at home against anyone. It wouldn't surprise me if Virginia lost to Iowa, but still, given Iowa's struggles on the road and our success at home, there are reasons to feel confident.


*http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2294/iowa-hawkeyes
** http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=323320259
*** http://wfiles.brothersoft.com/c/cancun-island_95633-1920x1200.jpg
**** https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4S2MnXOZIOVLJMQCEi2xD6PVsYNapMq9zRfphscooIVIBsrNxtR595Dm5qCl03EaG7qpbYVCbGqNZbQ8-2N3-fOrKAVOhxwv5UpS7H9EsLuciFICKUsrIxipB3t1DegHvaqsZPfqoWWg/s200/cassell+coliseum+j.jpg

Offseason Update #1: Bennett gets his guy in Anthony Gill, and more:

Well, today has been a crazy day to say the least. I had originally planned to wait until all offseason acquisitions were finalized, but I felt like today was a good day to post for the first time since the Florida game. It has already been a beyond chaotic couple of weeks. Virginia knew going into the offseason that it wanted, or rather needed, to add a couple of transfers to provide some depth to the depleted roster.

-There are three types of players that Coach Bennett has been looking for the past couple of weeks. The first is a post player who would be eligible to play immediately, in order to help lessen the blow of Mike Scott's departure as well as provide some much needed frontcourt depth. The first name that came up was Alex Oriakhi, the Junior Center from UCONN (eligible to play immediately due to their postseason ban). While UVA was mentioned occasionally on Oriakhi's list, the Cavs were never really a factor to land the formal National Champion, who ended up at Missouri. Another player fitting the description was Jared Swopshire, a Forward from Louisville who was not granted his redshirt year. UVA seemed to have a good shot at landing Swopshire, but in the end there wasn't enough mutual interest to spark a connection (he ended up at Northwestern).

The final player who could play next year is Sam McLaurin from Coastal Carolina. McLaurin is a 6'8 230lb PF who will graduate this year. This means that he will be eligible to play next season, as long as he transfers to a school that offers a major the CCU did not. Sam has said that he wants to play his final season of college basketball elsewhere because he wants to go to Law School. Now, this could easily be a polite excuse for another reason, but we don't really know that yet. If he is 100% committed on going to law school, he might have a hard time finding a place where he can play high level basketball as well. In my opinion, I think he'll be willing to pursue a grad program in a similar field, where he can prepare himself if he still wishes to go after next year. I think Virginia would be a great option. While he hasn't played against the best competition, McLaurin still seems like a guy who could come in and contribute for the Cavaliers next season. Virginia's frontcourt next season will only consist of Junior Akil Mitchell, Sophomore Darion Atkins, and Freshman Mike Tobey, so they could obviously use a veteran post player. McLaurin averaged 10 points 7.5 rebounds and 1 block per game last year for CCU. His most impressive outing came against Virginia opponent LSU, where he had 13 points on 6-8 shooting, 16 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Those are very impressive numbers against LSU's frontcourt of Justin Hamilton and Johnny O'Bryant. Here's some of his highlights:

As you can see in the film, McLaurin is a long and lean post player. He looks to be pretty athletic and very active on the boards. Sam doesn't look like the guy who will come into the ACC and dominate the post, but he certainly looks capable of being a presence down low, scooping up some rebounds, and being active on defense. In my opinion, this one's a no brainer. Look for Virginia to get involved in his recruitment. If he comes on board and is able to contribute consistently, UVA could have a pretty dangerous team in 2012-2013.


-The next type of transfers on Virginia's radar were a post player and a point guard for the future. UVA thought it had its guy in TJ McConnell, a sophomore PG transfer from Duquesne. However, the family connections to Arizona Head Coach Sean Miller as well as the prestige of their program (hence the nickname "PointGuardU") proved too difficult to overcome. TJ's father, though, seemed to be won over by Bennett and UVA, but eventually, TJ felt as if the Wildcats had more to offer him. While this one stung, it's not the end of the world. TJ did seem like the prototypical Tony Bennett PG, but there will be others out there. Also, we still have Teven Jones. Now while many Virginia fans have already unfairly written off Teven and are looking for his replacement, I'm a bit more optimistic. For one thing, Teven is probably a more highly regarded recruit coming out of high school than McConnell was, so folks should keep that in mind. Also, I got a chance to play with/against him a couple of weeks ago (along with Akil, Jesperson, and Rogers). Now it's nearly impossible to gauge talent in a pickup game like that, but I have always liked Teven's handle and just the overall control of his game. Also, he's deceptively strong (like Jontel) and very athletic. Working with Bub will prepare him to take over the reins. All this being said, we still need another PG, even if Teven turns out to be a stud. As of now, the main option seems to be Dylan Ennis. Honestly, I can't really see it happening. Villanova was the early favorite, but that could/will change if they add Wake Forest PG Tony Chennault (which seems likely). Then it's Cincinnati. Ennis has already visited these schools and has set up a visit to VT (who I know assume is eliminated with the news of Greenberg's firing). I can't really gauge where he stands, so I have a sort of "wait and see" attitude.

The next guard transfer name is Brian Sullivan. Sullivan is a Freshman SG/Combo Guard at Miami OH looking to transfer. Apparently, he was on grounds this weekend and is a guy that Bennett really likes. Now many fans online have expressed concern that Sullivan isn't really a point guard. I think this really shows how Tony doesn't look for "point guards", but rather guards who can pass, dribble, shoot, and defend. I think Sullivan could be that guy. Like many others, I was hesitant at first, but after watching his film, I think he could be a good fit. Now I still think we might need one more PG in 2013, but Sullivan could be a good option. Here's some highlights:

 One thing is certain about Brian Sullivan...the kid can shoot. His form is just about perfect. He has incredible range and can get off a shot from just about anywhere. What I like about his game is that he seems to be a pretty complete combo guard. While I wouldn't call him a "point guard", he certainly has PG qualities. He seems to have a very good handle and is a very good passer. He averaged 10.3 points per game as a freshman at Miami last year and was absolutely deadly from deep. Because of this, he can score in bunches. He had 24 points against Vanderbilt, all 3 pointers, shooting 8-10 from deep. I think he can be an improved version of Sammy. He's quicker, more athletic, has a better handle, and looks to be a better shooter. While he's not option A at point guard, Sullivan is a guy that could be a great fit here. He seems to be the TJ McConnell of combo guards, if that makes any sense. The more I see of him, the more I like. I think Brian is someone who would really benefit from the year off, as he could both bulk up and learn Bennett's system and his future role as a PG. But like I said, while I think Sullivan is more than capable of running the point, I think we would still look to bring in a true point guard as well.



-Finally, let's get to the big men transfers. Now I'm gonna save the best for last, so I'll start with Damontre Harris. Harris is a 6'9 220lb Sophomore who, like Anthony Gill, is transferring from South Carolina. I have heard a lot of conflicting reports as to where Virginia stands with Harris, but I figured I might as well introduce him. Gill's AAU Coach Rick Lewis (NCST Signee Tyler Lewis's father) was the first to report Gill's commitment to Virginia this afternoon. Interestingly enough, Lewis has said for a couple weeks now that he expected both Gill and Harris to end up in Charlottesville. Well, he's 1 for 1 so far. Anyways, Harris, while very talented, hasn't seemed to scratch the surface of his potential. Every now and then, he'll show flashes of why he was so highly recruited out of High School. Harris averaged 6.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game last year for the Gamecocks. The best description for his game I could come up with is Darion Atkins in a year or two. He's stronger and a bit bigger than Darion, but is similarly defensively minded, long, and shares his shot-blocking and dunking abilities. It's hard to project how Harris would fit into our frontcourt rotation, but he seems like a guy too talented to pass up. Once it all clicks for him, Harris could potentially be a dominant force in the paint (which is why big time programs such as Kansas, Florida, and Marquette have come to visit him the past week or two).

And last but not least, Anthony Gill. Gill's commitment to Virginia this afternoon marked the end of a crazy journey the past couple of weeks. First, when South Carolina Coach Rick Horn was fired, Gill was unsure whether he would transfer or not. When former Kansas State Frank Martin was hired, Gill eventually decided he wanted out, but Martin wasn't really ready to let him go. Finally, he was granted a release. Because of Virginia's strong interest and already existing relationship from his recruitment out of High School, Gill set up his visit to Charlottesville first. It soon became clear that Anthony was down to three schools: UVA, Ohio State, and UNC. With a visit to UVA in the books, and another to Columbus set for the following weekend, UNC finally reentered the picture. However, Gill was put off by Coach Roy Williams's attitude towards him, and decided to eliminate the home state Tarheels (much to the relief of many Wahoo fans). After in-home visits in Columbia by both the Cavalier and Buckeye coaching staffs, Gill went to Columbus to see what Ohio State had to offer. Ultimately, the connection with Virginia was just too much for the Buckeyes to overcome, as Gill chose the Cavaliers this afternoon.

When I first heard of Gill's name as a potential transfer, I naturally went to YouTube to check out his game. After about 45 seconds of film, I was convinced that Bennett absolutely had to reel him in. I could not think of a better fit for our team's needs than Anthony Gill. The easy comparison for Gill is Mike Scott. However, I actually see a bit more in Anthony's game. Now I don't mean to say he's going to be "better" than Mike Scott, but rather the he has to potential to be better. Anthony seems more versatile and athletic than Mike. If Mike has some of Gill's abilities with the basketball or his athleticism, he'd likely be a 1st Round draft pick without question. While many look at Gill's solid but not overly intimidating stats (7.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and see his addition as nothing more that a little bit of post help, I see him as "our guy" for the future. I look at his game and see someone who has all of the tools to be a great, All-ACC type player. I honestly have had a hard time finding any real flaws. For a big man, Anthony is fantastic with the ball in his hands. He is comfortable putting the ball on the floor and even running down the floor to beat a press. His perimeter shot forces defenders to respect his very good up-fakes, which he uses to get his man in the air to blown by him off the dribble. While he will certainly bulk up next year, he has already shown the ability to "body" his man down low and finish with contact. I see Anthony as a more complete version of Mike going into his second year. Add a year off to bulk up and learn the system and Gill could be scary good when he takes the floor in 2013. I like his AAU Coach's description of his game:

Rick Lewis, Gill’s former AAU coach, calls Gill “sneaky athletic.” He recalled a game from a few years ago in which Gill took off from just inside the free-throw line on a fastbreak and dunked.
“I’ve seen him do things where you’re just sitting there and going, ‘Wow!’” said Lewis, the father of 2012 N.C. State recruit Tyler Lewis, who runs his own scouting service.

“He’s a two-handed rebounder and once he gets the ball he rarely fumbles or loses it,” he said. “He’s really good around the basket. He’s more explosive than what a lot of people think he is, but he has the ability to step out and knock down a 15-foot jumper.”

“He’s always been sort of like a sleeping giant,” Lewis said. “I’ve always thought that if he developed that mean streak, he could be like [an NBA player]. (Courtesy of The Daily Progress)

Here are the clips that made me fall in love with his game. While his competition doesn't look to be all that great, you can still get a glimpse at his athleticism and strength with the ball in his hands.

I'll close with talking briefly about Justin Miller. His is a name that many Virginia fans who follow recruiting closely are familiar with. Miller, a 6'1 guard from Missouri, was on Virginia's radar a couple of years ago, before being sidelined his Senior season with an odd foot injury requiring extensive surgery and treatment. Well, I got a text last weekend from a friend who was hanging out with some players and recruits. The text asked me if I knew of a guy named Justin from Missouri who might be coming to Virginia to play next year. I had to do some research, but Miller's name quickly popped up, and I knew that was the guy. Now I don't know much about Miller's game, but from everything I've heard, he's a combo type shooting guard similar to Sullivan. Considering Virginia is taking him as a walk-on, this is the perfect example of a no-lose situation for both parties.

"Once I got over the injury, I was like, 'I'm going to focus on getting better and hopefully put myself in a position to play next year.' "
Miller has been attending Missouri and playing as much basketball as he can. He competes on MU's club basketball team, plays about 2-3 hours of pickup games at the rec center every day and also participates in an online workout with Jason Otter, an elite point guard trainer based in Saginaw, Mich.
His surgically repaired foot has held up to the pounding.
"My foot feels 110 percent," Miller said. "I've never felt this good."
Miller kept in touch with Bennett through a family friend and was invited to work out for the Virginia coaches, who liked what they saw.
"The second my admission stuff goes through, I'm on the team," he said.
Miller plans to enroll at Virginia for summer courses and hopes to make enough of an impact to earn some playing time on an ACC squad that is reportedly thin at point guard behind starter Jontel Evans.
"Division I has always been my dream," Miller said. "Now that a major D-I school is giving me this opportunity, I'm really thankful." (Courtesy of The Columbia Tribune)

That's it for now, but stay tuned...we're not done yet. I plan to have another update within a month, hopefully reporting on more good news as well as discussing our incoming recruits and other topics. Welcome aboard to AnGo Hoos!

A Look Ahead to Florida's Roster:

Florida Gators

PG: Erving Walker 5'8 SR- Probably the thing that should most concern Virginia is Walker's experience. The Senior point guard has his fair share of NCAA Tournament experience, including a run to the Elite Eight a season ago. While his 14ppg and 5 apg are impressive, one must take into account Florida's fast paced tempo, which, like UNC, tends to pad individual stats. Still, Walker is definitely an offensive threat for the Gators. While because of size, one might be tempted to compare Walker with Jontel Evans, I think they are two different PG's. Walker prefers working the ball around the outside rather than looking to drive and attack the defense. This is both good and bad for Virginia. It's good because you don't really have to worry all that much about Walker breaking down the Pack Line defense by penetrating and looking to either finish (or draw a foul) or kick it out to an open shooter for a three. The bad is that Walker is a much better shooter than Evans, and is just one of the many Gators who is more than capable from deep. As I already mentioned, Florida likes to push the ball like Carolina. In transition, Walker usually looks to drive the ball all the way to the free throw line, then look to the wing to hit a trailer for a shot from three. He doesn't really like to take it to the hoop himself and finish, as we often see Jontel do. On defense, he is nowhere near as quick or aggressive as Evans. He doesn't do a great job at moving his feet and has trouble fighting through ball screens. He isn't a "bad" defender, but Jontel should be able to use his quickness to get by him. I assume Bub will guard Walker, although I could potentially see him on Boynton and Sammy on Walker, but most likely it will be the other way around. If Jontel can get up in Walker's grill by using his strength, quickness, and athleticism, he should be able to frustrate him and prevent him from getting good looks.

SG: Kenny Boynton 6'2 JR- Boynton is another experienced Gator guard who should be considered their biggest weapon on offense. He has scored in double figures in all but five of Florida's games this season, but has struggled with his shot the past couple of games. Like the rest of the Gators' guards, his shot is the most dangerous part of his game. He shoots 43% from three and 45% from the field. Over half of the shots he takes in a game are from deep. Bottom line: he lives and dies by the three ball. He's as good if not better than anyone else in the country and getting himself a good look. I assume Zeglinski will be on him for most of the game. Now while Sammy struggled offensively against NCST in the ACC Tournament, he did a great job on shutting down sharpshooter Scott Wood. Now Boynton is a different and more dangerous overall player than Wood, but Sammy's defense last game gives hope for this game. Sammy is quick enough to stay with him, but still it will be really difficult for him to prevent good looks all game. Boynton is just 10-31 from three in the past four games, so hopefully he will continue to struggle with his shot. However, even is Boynton is making his shots, it doesn't necessarily mean a loss for Virginia. In Florida's 10 losses, Boynton still averages about 15ppg. So even if he has a good night, Virginia will still have a chance. The biggest issue will be stopping him from penetrating. Boynton is a little bigger, stronger, and more athletic than Zeglinski, so he will probably try to beat him on occasion. While he is primarily a shooter, he still can beat you off the dribble. Defensively, Boynton will have a bit of a size advantage on Zeglinski, but his defense is pretty average. If Sammy can get his shot back, he should be able to take advantage of some open looks that the Florida defense will give him.

SF: Bradley Beal 6'3 FR- The 5 Star Recruit has had a great frosh season for the Gators. Right now, I think the best description of his game is a slasher/shooter. He'll look for the jumpshot first and if it isn't there, he'll up fake and slash to the basket. When he catches and shoots in rhythm, he can be a deadly shooter. He's also the Gator's biggest threat at attacking the defense. He's strong with the ball and can get to the rim. I really like the matchup with Joe Harris. I think they are fairly similar players, while Beal is smaller and quicker, yet stronger than Harris, who is more of a forward than a guard. I have been really impressed with Joe's defense this year. He has had to guard guys like Harrison Barnes, Tim Hardaway Jr., Ryan Kelly, and Travis McKie. Beal will be yet another test for the Sophomore. I don't think Joe will shut him down completely, but I think he can do a good job at preventing him from getting easy jumpshots and being physical with him when he drives to the basket. I also think Beal will struggle with the Pack Line when he drives, as he hasn't likely seen anything like it before. On defense, Beal is active and athletic. I think Joe's height advantage will give him open looks, but Beal's strength might limit his ability to get inside buckets. Still, I think Harris will be able to have another productive game. The key to this matchup will be rebounding. Both teams lack front court depth, so Beal and Harris are often called upon to rebound the ball. Joe will have to secure the long rebounds on Florida's misses from three. Virginia can't afford to give a team like the Gator's second chance opportunities.

F: Patric Young 6'9 SO- Young is a solid post player with a bright future. His go to move is his hook shot, which he uses frequently. While he is athletic and has some good upper body strength, he isn't as much of a physical force as some of the players Virginia has seen this year. This should be a relief to Virginia fans, who should be sick of teams with intimidating frontcourts by now. Still, Young is a very solid player that Virginia must take seriously. While he has only scored in the double digits in 4 of the past 12 games, three of those were against Kentucky. I would not be surprised at all if Florida tried to test Mike early and maybe get him some quick fouls by feeding Young early and often. I'm still not completely sold on his offensive skill-set, but he definitely is dangerous. However, I do not expect him to take over the game. I think the most important aspect of Young's matchup with Scott is on the defensive end. From what I've seen, Young is only a decent defender. He doesn't use his size and weight as well as he could and is capable of being pushed around in the post. I don't think he has faced a player like Mike, who will draw him further away from the basket than he's used to. When Mike tries to bang it down low, I think Young will get into some foul trouble, which is something the Gators can't afford. If this does happen, it could be a very good sign for Virginia. Quite simply, Patric Young is the only player on the Gator's roster who has even a chance of slowing down Mike Scott. If he isn't on the court, Mike should basically be able to score at will.

F: Erik Murphy 6'10: Don't let Murphy's size fool you. He is much more comfortable playing SF than he is playing C, but because of Florida's thin front line, he has to be a post player. He is often shoved around in the post and really has a hard time being physical with natural big men. After going up against Howell, Leslie, and Painter of NCSU and James, Gibson, and White of FSU the past couple of games, Murphy should be a much easier matchup for Akil Mitchell (and Darion Atkins). I think Akil will be able to get position down low and could actually be a scoring threat for Virginia, much like last game. So much attention will be paid to Mike Scott that Akil should be able to take advantage of his weaker, less athletic defender. The real issue with Murphy is on the offensive end. He is a great shooter who can be a major matchup problem for the post players guarding him. Thankfully, Akil has seen guys like him before (more later) and has done a pretty good job. He will have to work to stay with him and work through screens to prevent him from getting open looks.

Bench: This game will be won and lost by the starters. Florida has a slightly deeper, more talented, and more experienced bench than Virginia, but still, doesn't really have any impact reserves. Both teams are playing without their 6th man (Brogdon for Virginia, Yeguete for Florida; both ironically out with broken feet), so the reserves who do play will mainly serve as breathers for the starters or help for foul trouble. Both teams only have one post player on the bench, so finally, Virginia's lack of frontcourt depth shouldn't be an issue. The only guy UVA has to worry about is Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario. He's an active guard who will knock down some shots if left open.

I wanted to mention this when describing the players but I felt it would be best to save it for the end to serve as a sort of summary. When I watched Florida's game film, the first thing that popped into my head was that they looked like a more athletic version of Michigan. Obviously their tempos are different, but when we are talking about player matchups, there are many similarities between Michigan and Florida. Both have small but strong PG's who aren't afraid to shoot the ball, although Burke is more dangerous because of his ability to create for himself and drive to the basket. Both have deadly shooters in Novak and Boynton (different players but still most dangerous because of their shots), athletic wings in Hardaway and Beal, out of position bigs in Smotrycz and Murphy, and strong PF's in Morgan and Young. Now Virginia's lineup is obviously different from that Michigan win, when Assane Sene and Malcolm Brogdon were playing, but still, the indiviual matchups will be very similar on Friday.


Burke - Evans - Walker

Novak - Zeglinski - Boynton

Hardaway - Harris - Beal

Smotrycz - Mitchell - Murphy

Morgan - Scott - Young

I think this bodes well for Virginia. When I look at these matchups, I see a lot to like. The biggest key for Virginia will be slowing down the production of their guards. For Florida, it will be all about stopping Mike Scott. If Virginia finds any sort of help for Mike, I think it'll have a solid shot to pull of the upset. Either way, I expect it to be yet another very close game. I'll have some more analysis before Friday, so check back in the next couple of days.

NCAA Tournament Field Projection:

With the Selection Show an hour away, here's a last minute field projection with seeding:

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State, North Carolina
16 Seeds:  Lehigh, Lamar, MV St, Vermont, WKU, Detroit

2 Seeds: Missouri, Ohio State, Duke, Kansas
15 Seeds: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, LIU Brooklyn, Montana

3 Seeds: Baylor, Marquette, Georgetown, Michigan
14 Seeds: South Dakota St., Belmont, NM ST., Loyola

4 Seeds: Louisville, Florida State, Indiana, Wisconsin
13 Seeds: Ohio, Davidson, Seton Hall, Colorado, BYU

 5 Seeds: Wichita State, Florida, Murray State, Memphis
12 Seeds: South Florida, St. Bonaventure, Texas, NCST, California

 6 Seeds: Creighton, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, New Mexico
11 Seeds: Colorado State, Xavier, VCU, Long Beach State

 7 Seeds: San Diego State, St. Mary's, Temple, UNLV
10 Seeds: Virginia, Purdue, West Virginia, Southern Miss

 8 Seeds: Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Alabama, Kansas State
9 Seeds: Iowa State, Connecticut, Harvard, St. Louis


So by looking at this, we would be playing one of SDSU, St. Mary's, Temple, or UNLV. I'd love to get St. Mary's or Temple. I want no part of the MWC teams.

NCSU Thoughts and Bubble Watch:

Yesterday's game was rough. What is most frustrating is that if you told me Scott, Harris, and Mitchell would combine for 51 points, UVA would win the rebounding and turnover battles, and have the same number of fouls as NCST, I would have been convinced Virginia won the game. In my preview, I said that rebounding would probably be the X-factor. This didn't turn out to be the case, as State found other ways to win. Maybe it was because they shot 54% against our defense, so they didn't really have that many offensive rebound opportunities. They hit a lot of shots that I just hadn't seen them hit before this season. Lorenzo Brown and CJ Leslie played the best games I have ever seen them play. They combined for 13-16 from the field for 34 points. Brown added two 3 pointers, 8 assists, 4 rebounds, and a block. Leslie grabbed 14 rebounds as well.


I didn't even really think Virginia's defense played that poorly. Early on, Mitchell and Atkins were completely overwhelmed by Leslie. Once Akil settled in, he did a much better job. I'm still a little frustrated that the refs never whistled Leslie for a hook (he did it on just about every one of his shots). That's a call that UNC and Duke get without hesitation. If they called an early hook on Leslie (there are three that instantly come to my mind), then he probably would have done it less, since he ended up in some foul trouble anyways. Concerning Brown, I thought Jontel did a good job, but the pack line didn't help him out enough. Maybe Bennett was just so concerned with Leslie, Howell, and Wood that he basically told Jontel that he would have to put Brown on "Bub Island", who knows. Brown also hit a couple of tough shots that he doesn't normally hit. I think his size advantage over Evans proved more important than I had anticipated.


Still, I wouldn't say we played horribly. We've shot worse and won; we've turned the ball over more and won; we've defended worse and won. I think it just came down to yet another instance where we just don't have the personnel to win games late. In an end of game situation, we're very predictable. The obvious choice is to give it to Scott, but that isn't as much of a no brainer as many assume. First of all, at the end of the game, you have to assume that you're not going to get a foul call. Scott's defenders know this and know they could be even more physical than earlier in the game. Also, with a big time player like Mike, it's almost too predictable to give him the ball and let him do his thing. The defense will see that coming. The defense also knows that the ball most likely won't be going to Mitchell, especially if they watched the FSU tape where he dropped the pass from Zeglinski. They're also aware that Sammy will likely sit on the outside and try to get a look at a three. So that leaves them to worry about Harris and Evans. With his broken hand, Harris is less of a threat to create his own shot and is most likely going to have to use a screen (which is what happened yesterday). The last option is for Jontel to drive. While predictable, it's hard to stop. But still, it's a risky shot, given his size. I think Virginia has really missed Brogdon the past couple of games. They need a guard who create different types of shots for himself.


I'll close with saying that Mike Scott is the best player in the ACC. Just look at how much harder he has to work for his shots. Zeller, once again, didn't have to work for any of his points. They all came pretty much uncontested, within 5 feet of the hoop. Now don't get me wrong, much of this is due to his fantastic instinct and great positioning, but still, I just don't see the evidence that he is a better player than Scott. Mike has the full attention of the opposing team's defense. He probably gets fouled on 90% of the shots he takes, yet doesn't get all of the calls Zeller gets. Against Maryland, a team with virtually no frontcourt, Zeller went for 22, 30, and 14 in three games. But he only hit 7, 5, and 4 FG's. Compare that to Mike's 25 and 35 in two games on 10 and 11 FG's each. Both are great players, but Mike deserves POY as much as Zeller, if not more. If there ever was a year for Co-POY.....


Bubble Watch:


Okay, I, like many of the "experts:, believe that we are "in", despite yesterday's loss. We have just too clean of a resume (one great win, some very good wins, especially on the road, and no terrible losses) and the bubble is just so bad that I can't see how the committee would leave us out. The only reason I could think of is that they don't think we are a good enough team with all of our injuries. If we we're getting blown out down the stretch, I could buy this. But we've shown that we can still be more than competitive with any team in the country, despite our thin lineup. Plus, our defense will likely be even more difficult to a team that hasn't faced it before. Because of these factors, I'm not really sweating. Here's some more evidence:


I went and made a list of all of the teams who might make the NCAA Tournament. I divided them into two groups: Locks/Already Clinched and Bubble. My "locks" are the teams that nobody is even considering to be on the bubble (ie we're not a "lock"). This gave me a list of 49 teams. So that leaves 18 spots left for the bubble teams to fight over. Here's the RPI Breakdown:

Bubble (32 for 18 spots):

Southern Miss-19

Colorado State-27

California-36

Iona-41

Marshall-42

BYU-44

Purdue-45

Xavier-45

Texas-48

NCST-49

Oral Roberts-50

Virginia-52

USF-53

Ole Miss-54

WVU-56

MTSU-57

Northwestern-60

Miami-61

Nevada-63

Oregon-64

Drexel-66

Seton Hall-67

Dayton->68

Arizona->68

Washington-68

Mississippi State->68

Tennessee->68

So even if you only go off of RPI, which is not our strong suit right now, we're still comfortably "in". Obviously, some of these teams are still playing, so they have opportunities to help or hurt their RPI's. I think our RPI will end up somewhere around 50. The only team behind UVA on this list that I think could have the potential to jump us is WVU and USF. 

However, I think Virginia will jump some teams in front of it. First of all, despite yesterday, I think UVA still has a stronger resume than NCST. Virginia has 7 Top 100 wins, 3 of those on the road, one neutral, and 4 by double digits. NCST has 6 Top 100 wins, one of those on the road, three neutral, none of them by more than 5 points. Virginia also has a 12 point win against #10 Michigan, NCST doesn't have anything close to that. NCST also has the same loss to Clemson on the road, which was our only "bad loss" (we also beat Clemson, they only played them once). NCST also has an 11 point home loss to #195 Georgia Tech. Basically the only reason why NCST's RPI isn't in the 70's is because they played Syracuse and Vandy.

Virginia should also jump Oral Roberts (3 T100 Wins, 2 T50, 2 sub150 losses), BYU (5 T100 wins, 1 T50, no impressive road wins), and Iona (5 T100 wins, 0 T50, 3 sub 150 losses, 2 sub 200 losses). Personally, I think we'll jump some others, but I was just being conservative here.

Most experts have us more comfortably in than this "math" shows, but my point is, even if you try and create a worst case scenario, there's just no real way to leave Virginia out. Our combination of good wins (one great), road wins, double digit wins, no real bad losses, and some impressive close losses is something not many teams have. 

Stop by before the selection show. I'll do some last minute Blind Resumes tomorrow after the ACC Tournament Final.

 

ACC Tourney: NCSU Game Preview

Okay, so I'm finally back in my hotel after a long couple of days (let's go ahead and make that weeks, which explains the giant gap in posts). If you remember the first NCST game from earlier this year, the first thing that comes to your mind is likely how they absolutely dominated Virginia on the boards. Well, not surprisingly, I believe that will be what eventually determines the game. If Virginia lets the Pack double them on the boards like last time, they will have an extremely tough time finding a way to win. If they can at least be competitive on the glass, then their chances of victory will dramatically increase.

Earlier today I got a chance to see this NCST team in person as they took down Boston College. Through the anxious enthusiasm of their players, coaches, and fans, NCST made it known that they were not okay with being in the "First Four Out". They wanted to use this weekend to propel them towards earning an NCAA tournament bid. Before this afternoon, my educated guess would say that they were on the outside looking in. While losses by Northwestern and Washington may have indirectly helped their cause, the Wolfpack would have sent themselves to the NIT with a loss to the Eagles, regardless of what happened to other "bubble" teams.

Thanks partially to some poor BC shooting and unforced turnovers but mainly to their energy at the beginning of the game, the Pack started out on fire, claiming a 14-0 early lead. Many in the building, including myself, wondered whether NCST might drop a 40+ point beatdown on the Eagles, sling-shotting all out their momentum into tomorrow's Quarterfinal game vs. UVA. But State cooled down as BC began to heat up. Eventually, NCST was just too much for Steve Donahue's young, undersized, and, quite frankly, underskilled team. I thought this game, as well as what I saw in the tape from the first State-UVa game helped give me some insight as to what Virginia should expect from their opponent tomorrow.

NC State As a Team:
As I mentioned above, I was a bit of afraid of a dominating Wolpack victory, giving them tons of momentum against a UVA team that isn't exactly peaking. Well, while they did win by 21, I don't really think State played well enough today to gain the type of confidence that might make UVA nervous. As well as they played at the beginning and end of the game, they were just as bad in the middle. After being up 14-0 (and later 43-28 with 17 minutes remaining), they allowed BC to cut the lead to 7 with 8 minutes left. I think the Play-by-Play on ESPN best shows how they let the Eagles back into the game: "Clifford layup...Humphrey layup...Jackson layup...Daniels Three Pointer...Anderson Layup...Anderson Layup...Clifford Tip Shot...Anderson Tip Shot...Daniels Layup". NCST just assumed victory and really stopped playing defense.

I think this is key. I have criticized State's defense all year and what I saw today only strengthened my case. It's not that they are poor defenders, but rather none of them seem to have the will to do what it takes to be good to great defenders. They just always seem to be a step late, one rotation over, etc. My point is twofold. First, I still don't really think they will have any sort of an answer for Mike, even with a double team. Secondly, after a full 40 minutes today, I wonder what kind of gas they will have in their tanks to go hard on defense, especially when the possessions will be much longer than usual. I'll go more in depth on this later.

Wolfpack Players:
PG: Lorenzo Brown 6'5- Brown is a tall, athletic point guard who I like to describe as "hot or cold". It seems like half of the things he does drop your jaw in amazement, while the other times he leaves State fans shaking their heads. Today against BC, he was more of the former, but he definitely showed flashes of coldness. I think his biggest problem is tempo. He seems to really struggle with the question of when he should push the ball versus when he should slow it down and set the offense. He only had 3 turnovers today, but you he had a couple other close calls that showed his tempo hesitance. Still, his 8 assists (and 12 pts) show what he brings. He's pretty solid in most of the PG categories offensively: good vision, nice passing touch, runs the offense well, etc. However, I would definitely not consider him a strong defender. While some might worry at the size difference from Jontel (Brown is a good 5-6 inches taller), I think the bigger mismatch is Bub's quickness and ability to get to the rack against Brown's average lateral quickness and defensive abilities. After what Brown said about Mike Scott today, he's on my good side. He's a good player that has potential to be great if he stays all four years. Thankfully, for our sake, he's not quite there yet. I think it will be a great, competitive battle at PG. Should be fun to watch.

SG- C.J. Williams 6'5- After watching Williams live, a comparison came to me. I thought I might have been wrong, but after watching the night games, I'll stick to it. I said to myself that Williams reminded me of a Dorenzo Hudson from about two years ago. That slimmer, quicker version of Hudson and Williams seem to be similar players. Both like to slash with a one or two dribble pull up, both like to be physical, and both have an inconsistent shot. Today, Williams was off. He wasn't much of a factor at all in the outcome in the game. Joe guarded him last game and I expect we will see the same matchup. I still hesitate to expect a certain performance from Joe with his broken hand, but I think he will be fine against Williams. Even though he gives good effort, he seems to be either on the wrong side of screens or just flat out in the wrong position more than most. Depending on how he is playing tomorrow, we might want to switch our matchups and focus on the guy I'm most worried about...............

SF: Scott Wood 6'6- Wood was straight money today (7-11, 5-9 3p, 22 pts). Even his misses looked good. To be fair, BC gave him more good looks than we did last meeting, but he made some tough ones too. If he shoots like that, we might be in for trouble. Initially I wanted Joe of him to match up with his height to put a hand in his face. The more I thought about it, the more I felt we needed someone who could keep up with him as he ran off screens. While I usually don't like Sammy guarding bigger players (cough cough Michael Snaer), I think speed is more important here. I didn't like the Snaer matchup because Snaer is obviously a lot more than just a shooter. Wood will only really beat us with his shot, so hopefully Sammy will be able to keep up with him and make it difficult. Maybe Sammy did just this last game...maybe Wood was just cold, who knows. On the other end, Sammy had no trouble at all shooting over Wood in the first half, but struggled to get a shot off later in the game. I think Virginia is really going to need another big game from him tomorrow.

F C.J. Leslie 6'8-
I still don't really get C.J. Leslie. Like Brown, sometimes he really lives up to that 5 star, lottery pick status, but other times I'm screaming lazy and overrated. He had another one of those games today, a couple of dominant plays along with long stretches of nothingness. Last game Bennett had Akil, Darion, and Joe switching off on him, and I think we'll see more of the same. I think Darion's role in this game will be crucial. Because of the physical presence of Howell (more later) and our limited rotation, there's a good chance Akil or Mike will get in foul trouble. Darion will need to move his feet better in order to be physical with his body, not with his hands. Leslie has just about the same body as him, so in theory, it should be a good matchup. If Atkins can prevent him from grabbing offensive boards/tips, it will really help Virginia's cause as a team. Last game, Gottfried put Leslie on Scott for much of the game. I don't think that really works, but then again, I don't think Howell does either. Scott shouldn't have any trouble getting his.

F Richard Howell 6'8- Last game, Howell grabbed 5 more offensive rebounds than Virginia's entire team, and only 2 fewer total rebounds. If that happens again, it might be a long afternoon for the Wahoos. If the referees allow him to be as physical (a better way to put it would be "if the refs let him grab and shove UVA's post players out of the way") as in the previous game, the game could get ugly quick. However, the BC game might give Virginia fans some hope. Howell, while he snagged a couple of early rebounds, was called for two straight over the back fouls, to the dismay of Pack fans. Those calls seemed to have affected Howell's aggressiveness on the glass. If he continues to play slightly more tentative in fighting for rebounds, Virginia's bigs might have a better chance limiting State's second chance opportunities. Let's be real here; Howell will get his share of rebounds and putbacks.. The combination of his strength and positioning is just too much for Scott, Mitchell, and Atkins to shut down completely. On the defensive side of the ball, Howell is pretty much just average. Obviously, he prefers to be physical and use his body more than he likes to move his feet and play good defense. He won't have a shot at stopping or slowing down Mike Scott when he's checking him. He can probably take care of Mitchell or Atkins, but considering they aren't really a big part of the offense anyways, that doesn't seem like a big deal for Bennett's team. Bottom line: get Howell some early fouls or just send him a message that you're not gonna put up with him shoving guys to get a rebound. I think Virginia's big men will do a better job of this than last game.

Bench:
Given what has happened the past couple of weeks and months, Virginia fans are likely thirsty for some good news or some sort of a break. Well, the good news is that, like Virginia, NCST plays a 7 man rotation. The bad news is that their two guys off of the bench tend to make a much bigger difference in the game. I'm not saying their "better" basketball players than Atkins or Jesperson...it just mainly comes down to the fact that they are a Junior and Senior.

Alex Johnson 5'10- Johnson is a small, but quick guard. In comparison to Brown, he's better at getting deeper into the lane, kind of like Jontel. However, once he gets into the lane, he doesn't really know what to do with the ball. That said, he's an overall good passer and defender with good speed. I would call him a lesser version of Jontel, only with a little more of a jumpshot (but still not that much of one). His handle is questionable, so if Brown is out of the game, Jontel should give him some trouble. Johnson will probably get around 15 minutes, and isn't really likely to change or take over the game, but he's a solid role player.

Deshawn Painter 6'9- Some of you might remember him as a guy who Dave Leitao recruited pretty
 hard. Painter is slightly taller and slimmer than Howell, but likes to play a similarly physical type of basketball. He's going to be a third option for defending Mike Scott, if (or when) the other two start to struggle. He has good defensive potential, but probably won't be able to give Mike much trouble. Offensively, he looks pretty darn uncomfortable with the ball in his hands. I wouldn't be surprised if we decided to play risky and put the double team on him some. I'm almost certain that he would cough the ball up. Where Painter is dangerous is on the glass. While his rebounding numbers are not great, he's one of those guys who seems to cause more team rebounds, even if they aren't necessarily going to him (I would describe Assane similarly). He's going to be a fresh body of the bench who's job will be to attack UVA's post players and try to: A) get offensive rebounds; B) Get Virginia in foul trouble. However, I just don't see him being all that successful.

Keys to the Game:

1) Rebound, Rebound, Rebound: If it sounds like I'm beating a dead horse, it's because I'm not quite convinced that this horse is dead yet. If Virginia gets crushed on the boards again, they will probably be going home early. They got lucky last time (most winning teams aren't double up on the glass). Tied into this is the issue of foul trouble. Last game, State got so many early offensive boards and putbacks that Virginia's players became frustrated and committed dumb fouls. This cannot happen with such a limited rotation. You can eliminate a lot of the foul concerns by securing as many rebounds as possible. If UVA does this, it will take away NCST's biggest threat.

2) Attack on Offense: As I mentioned earlier, NCST's defense has always seemed soft to me. First of all, I don't see them stopping Mike Scott. Holding him to anywhere from 15-20 points should be considered a success for the Pack. Anything more, and Mike could be in "put-da-team-on-mah-back" mode. The other real weakness I see in the State defense is against Jontel Evans. Bub has had one hell of a 2nd half of the season. NCST struggled mightily against the dribble penetration of BC's guards. I don't think Bub should have any trouble slicing through the Pack (not Pack Line) defense. Also, they are not very good on ball screens, so a little Mike and Bub action could be very effective. Even if Mike dominates, UVA will have to have another option. I'm not comfortable with predicting Sammy or Joe to go off or catch fire, but I do think Jontel could have a big game.

3) Make State Work for Tough Shots: Virginia needs to prevent two sorts of shots in order to be successful. The first of these is the easy put back from an offensive board. We've talked enough about this, so by now, it should be quite obvious. The other potentially killer shot is an open three for Scott Wood. Virginia has to do a better job on him than BC did today. If he goes off for 22, that's basically a W for NCST. I think Sammy is capable of staying with him and making him take contested shots. That's all Bennett can hope for. Virginia will just have to hope that Wood doesn't hit the tough ones.



This game is going to be a battle. I'd be very surprised if the margin of victory was by more than 5 points. State will be fighting for its postseason life, while Virginia is trying to claim a rare ACC Tournament Semifinal appearance. Virginia won't have a short rotation to blame for this game, as both teams will likely play exactly 7 players each. UVa will have to be better on the glass, stay out of foul trouble, and work through the Wolfpack's vulnerable defense. State will have to try and slow Mike Scott, guard the ball screen, and find a way to score against the Pack Line Defense (as well as hope Wood hits his shots). I still don't really think I'm ready to give a score prediction with this Virginia team. It's just really hard to predict how they will continue to respond. I will say that I expect a great basketball game. Should be a fun one. Check back here Saturday morning for some postgame analysis (and hopefully a Semifinal preview).

Hopefully all the motivation Virginia needs is the potential rematch with UNC looming.....