Early Duke Game Roster Breakdown:

So with a huge game like this, I'm gonna do a bit more than one game preview. This post will be a look at both teams' rosters and what stands out. Next I'll do a look at some statistics as well as what kind of competition each team has played. Then, on Wednesday or Thursday, I'll do a full game preview. So that's pretty much be my schedule for the week. I think I'm going to hold off on my first recruiting update until after the game. So heads up for this week's stuff.

Anyways:

Duke Blue Devils:

0	Austin Rivers	G	6-4	200	FR	Winter Park, FL
2	Quinn Cook	G	6-0	175	FR	Bowie, MD
3	Tyler Thornton	G	6-1	195	SO	Washington, DC
5	Mason Plumlee	F	6-10	235	JR	Warsaw, IN
12	Alex Murphy	F	6-8	220	FR	Wakefield, RI
13	Michael Gbinije	G-F	6-7	205	FR	Chester, VA
15	Josh Hairston	F	6-7	235	SO	Fredericksburg, VA
20	Andre Dawkins	G	6-4	200	JR	Chesapeake, VA
21	Miles Plumlee	F	6-10	245	SR	Warsaw, IN
30	Seth Curry	G	6-2	180	JR	Charlotte, NC
34	Ryan Kelly	F	6-11	230	JR	Raleigh, NC
40	Marshall Plumlee	F	6-11	225	FR	Warsaw, IN

Virginia Cavaliers:

0	Doug Browman	G	5-11	176	JR	Midlothian, VA
1	Jontel Evans	G	5-11	188	JR	Hampton, VA
5	Assane Sene	C	7-0	239	SR	Saint-Louis, Senegal
11	Rob Vozenilek	G	6-2	185	FR	Richmond, VA
12	Joe Harris	G	6-6	211	SO	Chelan, WA
13	Sammy Zeglinski	G	6-1	184	SR	Philadelphia, PA
21	Angus Mitchell	F	6-6	205	JR	Houston, TX
22	Malcolm Brogdon	G	6-5	215	FR	Norcross, GA
23	Mike Scott	F	6-8	237	SR	Chesapeake, VA
25	Akil Mitchell	F	6-8	234	SO	Charlotte, NC
30	Thomas Rogers	G	6-6	209	SO	Farmville, VA
32	Darion Atkins	F	6-8	222	FR	Clinton, MD

(Obviously, I had to take KT and James off of the Roster. I also had to cut a Duke walk-on for formatting reasons. I hope he can forgive me....)


The very first thing that stands out to me is that we are going to have a great opportunity to dominate the boards. Looking at Duke's roster, they don't exactly have a deep or intimidating frontcourt. Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly are the only players over 6'4 who average 20+minutes per game. Mike Scott (6'8), Assane Sene (7'0), Joe Harris (6'6), and Malcolm Brogdon (6'5) all average more than 20 minutes per game for Virginia. We are definitely going to be the "bigger" team in this game. Also, Miles Plumlee is the only Duke "big" that will likely see action off of the bench, while Virginia has both Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins. Mike should be able to gobble up rebounds all night against Plumlee(s) and Kelly, while Joe, Sammy, and Malcolm should have a big edge on the boards over their small guards. If we can turn this advantage into 2nd chance points, while limiting Duke's, this could be a huge factor for us. The only issue is, as Duke shoots a ton of threes (19.3 attempts per game), there are bound to be some long rebounds. You just gotta hope you can catch some luck on those ones.


The next thing that stands out on the rosters is the backcourt. Everyone knows Duke can beat just about anyone from behind the three point line. This doesn't exactly bode well against our pack-line defense. Rivers, Curry, Dawkins, and Thornton are all around 40% from deep (or even better). Kelly will also step out from the frontcourt and knock them down (47%), but he doesn't have a very intimidating game down low. If the Blue Devils get a lot of open looks from three and are shooting well, nobody can beat them. However, if they are not getting their share of treys, their guard play is very vulnerable. Outside of Rivers, Duke doesn't have guys who are dangerous at driving and getting to the rim. The majority of both Curry and Dawkins' FG attempts are from three. Duke lives and dies by the three more than any team in the country with the exception of maybe Florida (or VCU last year in their Final Four run). So basically there are two keys to beating Duke's guards: don't let them have a field day from behind the arc and don't let Rivers beat you. I'll save this for later in the week, but looking at some game tape, Duke's guards (and actually their bigs as well) are very vulnerable on defense.


The final thing that catches the eye about the rosters is the rotations. Now rotation depth has been a hot button issue for Tony Bennett's team, especially after the transfers of Harrell and Johnson, and the un-redshirting of Jesperson. Many say Virginia's 8 man rotation is a big weakness that will inevitably bring the team down over time. However, one look at the Duke roster and you see they have a similarly small rotation. Virginia has 8 guys that are part of their real rotation (basically guys who will impact the game). Duke also pretty much has an 8 man rotation (maybe 9 but Hairston/Gbinije's stats are inflated by their garbage minutes). Now many of you will say, well Duke has more talent so it's easier for them to pull it off. This may well be true. But my point is, it's interesting that we both are not exactly the deepest teams out there. For the most part, it's going to be Scott, Harris, Zeglinski, Evans, Sene, Brogdon, and Mitchell/Atkins for Virginia while it will be Rivers, Plumlee, Kelly, Curry, Dawkins, Plumlee, Thornton, and a little bit of Cook for Duke. I think this actually bodes well for Virginia, as our guys should be in about the same type of shape as theirs. 


Well that's what pops out when I look at the two rosters side by side. Next, I'll look a little deeper into the stats and see what type of impact we can expect each player to make on Thursday night.