Game 16: Duke Preview

Here we are. Probably the biggest UVA basketball game since 2007 (arguably even earlier than that). Duke has won 74 straight games in Cameron Indoor Stadium to teams not named UNC. Its going to be a tough task. However, Virginia is 14-1, on a 12 game win streak, and ranked #16/17 in the country. At first glimpse, it looks like the game should be very, very close. If you look back to one of my previous posts, you'll see that, under Bennett, UVA has actually played pretty well against Duke given the circumstances. In all four games, Bennett had to try and knock of the Blue Devils without his best player. This time, Virginia is fully healthy and primed to give Duke its best shot.

Lineup:

PG: Cook/Thornton vs. Evans. Point Guard has been a big question for the Blue Devils this year. With the departure of Kyrie Irving after just over ten games in his Duke career, the Devils had to work to find a new PG to run their offense. Last season, Tyler Thornton was given an audition and did pretty well. This year, Quinn Cook is getting his shot. He too has shown Coach K that he is capable of handling that role. However, both Cook and Thornton together only average just over 30 minutes per game. That tells me that when push comes to shove, Coach K is willing to sacrifice having a true PG on the court in order to put more experienced players out there. During these stretches, Duke will have Curry or Rivers act as stand in PGs. I think this could be an area Virginia could exploit. Out of those four guards, Cook is the only one who plays any sort of defense. I think these are good times to get Brogdon on the court running the offense. With Malcolm running the point, Sammy and Joe can be the other guards, with Mike and Assane/Akil/Darion down low. This is potentially out best scoring offense. It will be hard for Duke's young defense to prevent Zeglinski and Harris from getting open looks, while dealing with Mike down low, while at the same time worrying about Malcolm at point. I definitely expect this lineup when Cook and Thornton are not in. Anyways, I think Jontel gives us an advantage at PG with his experience and speed. When anyone other than Cook is on him, Bub will have no problem getting to the basket to either finish or dish. I expect Jontel to have a very good game on both ends tonight.

SG: Curry vs. Zeglinski. I think this matchup will be the most important of the game. These two are pretty similar players. Curry is better at getting open looks through either creating his own shot or his ability to use screens, while Sammy is more of a PG and a much better defender. I'd be willing to wager that whoever has the better game of these two will be on the winning team. Sammy struggled last week but hopefully he can rebound tonight. Duke's defense (especially Curry's) will give him plenty of open looks. I also think Sammy can beat Seth off the dribble and get into the paint. This usually leaves Joe open in the corner/wing. However, from all the tape I've watched on Curry, no matter the opponent, he seems to get his fair share of open looks. So I'm going to give him the slight edge, although he is going to have to step up on the defensive end.

SF: Rivers vs. Harris. This is a very interesting matchup. On paper, Rivers should dominate. But I don't expect that to be the case at all. I don't expect Rivers to be a big factor in the game, even if he scores a good number of points. He has shown this year that he can be an immature and selfish player with the ball. Hopefully, the pack line will drive him crazy, as he won't be able to drive to the basket. An experienced Rivers would realize this, and look to kick out every time he drives, but instead, I expect Austin to become frustrated and try to force up shots. The one thing that really worries me about him is his ability to get to the line. Now I don't know how much of it is him being good at drawing fouls and how much is Austin Rivers getting calls, but he goes to the line a lot. Exactly half of his points this year have come from either the FT line or from three. If Joe gets in foul trouble against him, we'll be in trouble. But if the refs call a fair game, I think Joe is prepared to match up with him. I don't expect the refs to call a fair game so I'm giving Rivers the edge.

PF: Kelly vs. Scott- Now I imagine Plumlee will be the one guarding Mike so this one really isn't a matchup, but either way, Mike will have the edge over whoever is guarding him. I think Duke is really vulnerable defensively in the paint, so I assume they'll have a lot of trouble with Mike. As long as nothing flukey happens, like Mike isn't hitting the midrange shots or he gets in foul trouble, I expect a pretty big night from him. Defensively, Kelly will be a tough matchup, but this year's slimmer, more athletic Mike Scott is quick enough to stay with him. We just have to prevent Kelly from catching fire, because that could really screw up our defensive strategy.

C: Plumlee vs. Sene- I just haven't gotten the sense that Mason Plumlee has improved all that much in his career. Still, he'll have an advantage against Sene, but I don't expect him to have a big game. Assane's focus has to be 100% defense and rebounding. If we're in a position where we need Assane's offense, we're not going to be in the game. So we need him to prevent Plumlee from having a big day on the boards. Plumlee (as well as his brother and Kelly) will shoot the midrange shot if we give it to them; we can't afford for Sene to leave that shot open. Also, Zu had a good game in Cameron last year with a good number of offensive boards. That would be incredibly helpful if he could do that again. Still, Mason is definitely a better overall player.

Bench: Both teams play a small ~8 man rotation. Virginia will see Brogdon, Mitchell, Atkins, and Jesperson off of the bench, while Duke has Dawkins, Thornton, Plumlee, Hairston, and Gbinije. I do not expect Jesperson, Hairston, or Gbinije to make any sort of impact or even see all that much time. The difference between the two benches is that Dawkins, Thornton, and Plumlee will definitely see a good chunk of time. Obviously, Brogdon will play plenty for Virginia, but outside of that the amount that Mitchell and Atkins play depends on the game. Duke has the advantage off of the bench, but I wouldn't exactly call them a terribly deep team.

Overall: This is a tough matchup for us, especially in Cameron Indoor. If Duke hits their shots, they are most likely going to win this game. However, Virginia's defense is something that their young guys haven't seen, and will likely give them trouble. I don't expect Duke to run away with the game. I think it will pretty much be up for grabs for just about the entire game. We need to to a better job of getting to the line and hitting free throws, but that may be a tough task in this environment. I like Virginia's chances in this game a lot more than most, but I'm definitely not going to predict a win at Duke. The online simulation did over 200 games and came out with both teams even at 62. I'll go ahead and say that Duke wins 66-59.

*I will leave you with one side note. In games like these, there's seems to be some sort of intangible advantage to the team with the best player. Mike Scott will be the best player on the court tonight. Just how much will that be worth? We'll find out.