Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Wisconsin Preview

Wisconsin Starters:

PG: Traevon Jackson 6'2 208lbs Junior
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14WIS31.63.0-7.9.3811.1-2.5.4504.4-6.0.7295.44.60.41.12.42.111.5

Steady, lead guard who is physical and likes to get to the rim if possible. Not the quickest or most athletic guy out there, but he's smart and can find weaknesses in the defense. When he does, he attacks, either creating a shot for himself or getting a teammate open. Has become much more of a threat to score himself this season. He isn't likely a guy who can win a game by himself, like a Nic Moore of SMU, but that doesn't mean he can't make you pay. He has a bit of a quirky shot, but he's a good shooter with a nice release. I've been impressed with his ability to knock shots down even with a hand in his face. I think he could potentially be vulnerable on defense if UVA had an assertive, attacking PG, but I don't thinks it's worth trying to ask Perrantes to force the issue. That said, Jackson isn't that quick laterally on defense, so maybe that will at least allow London to get a few open looks. Even if London doesn't look to score, if Jackson is a step behind, he can still cut or drive and force another Badger defender to come off his man and help. It'll also be interesting to see if Brogdon sees time at point, as Malcolm does have the ability to exploit some of Jackson's weaknesses. Because of the way Wisconsin plays, it might make sense to give Brogdon some run with the ball in his hands. Overall, though he's improved a lot from last year and is certainly a solid player, I don't see Jackson as a guy who will really swing this game one way or another (unless he absolutely catches fire or does something like turn it over 7-8 times).


















SG: Ben Brust 6'1 196lbs Senior
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14WIS34.83.4-9.4.3602.5-5.8.4352.4-2.5.9505.82.10.10.50.80.911.6

I think most fans pretty much know about Brust by now so I won't say too much. I feel like the best way to describe his game is that it's cliché. This is meant completely as a compliment. What I'm referring to is that Brust has the type of game that commentators feel the need to use a variety clichés to describe. Obviously, he's a shooter, but he's also just so much more than that. Basically, he just has about as complete of a skill-set as you'll see from a 6'1 guard. He shoots, he rebounds (extremely well for his size), he creates chances for his teammates, he defends, he hustles, he makes good decisions, etc. I can go on but you get the point. The biggest key for Virginia is to make sure he doesn't get hot from outside. He's gonna get his 8-10 points. UVA should be happy if his final tally is at that number or below. What they need to make sure, however, is that he doesn't go off. It'll be interesting to see what Bennett does matchup wise. Both Brogdon and Harris will be able to use their size and strength against a smaller guard like Brust. Maybe you go with Harris for his experience, to prevent mental lapses or breakdowns. But with the way Brust moves with and without the ball, drawing that assignment might hurt Joe's production on the other end. Anyways, Virginia has plenty of options, but has to make sure not to lose Brust, or it will be a long night. You give him too many easy ones and it's over.



















SG: Josh Gasser 6'3 190lbs RS Junior
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14WIS32.42.9-5.3.5481.1-2.5.4503.5-4.1.8484.81.50.10.63.01.110.4

Unlike Brust, most Virginia fans are probably a bit unfamiliar with Gasser, as he redshirted last year with an ACL tear. Gasser is more of your typical shooting guard, both in terms of build and skill-set. First and foremost, like just about everyone on this Wisconsin team, he's a good shooter from range. If he gets his feet set and shoots it in rhythm, as Coach Bennett likes to say, chances are it's going in. He's good as finding shots within the flow of UW's offense. He knows where he and his teammates are on the floor and thinks ahead to set himself up for an open look. Like Brust, whoever guards Gasser will have to be very disciplined. If you leave him for even a second, it'll cost you. He also likes to use his ability as a shooter to create opportunities driving and cutting to the basket. He's very good with his shot fake at getting defenders up in the air to he can drive and finish or dish. You also have to be careful about overplaying him as he'll go backdoor and cut to the hoop. So basically, he's just a good shooting guard. While UW doesn't really have a "lockdown" defender per se, Gasser is probably their best guy on the ball. He's got better size than Brust and better quickness than Jackson or Dekker, so look to see him on Joe, though we may see a bit of Dekker on him as well. I don't think Gasser is a good enough defender to shut Joe down himself, but he will make him earn his points.




















F: Sam Dekker 6'7 220lbs Sophomore
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14WIS29.95.6-11.3.5001.4-3.6.3792.0-3.4.5935.50.90.40.91.62.014.6

Dekker is probably one of Bo Ryan's most highly touted recruits in his tenure and was sort of a HS legend in the state of Wisconsin. They were really excited when he arrived on campus, and while he certainly didn't have a disappointing first year in Madison, I think it's safe to say that most Badger fans expected him to really breakout this season. So far, he's pretty much done just that. As far as position goes, it's kind of complicated to accurately label Dekker. He's probably between 6'7 and 6'8, but he's not a "power forward," but at the same time, he's a good rebounder and can use his length to hold his own against some post players. Maybe it's better to call him a "wing," but then again, you watch him play and some of this things he does are reminiscent of what a guard would do. All we really knew is that he's talented, versatile, and pretty much a matchup nightmare for most. He's a great shooter from outside (shocking, I know), he can slash and get to the hoop, he can use his dribble to get by or lose his defender, he moves efficiently without the ball and sets himself up for a catch and shoot or a quick drive, etc. All that said, while a player of his caliber will always be of concern, I think Virginia has a few guys that can match up with him. Now I'm sure Wisconsin fans probably hear opposing fans say that all the time, and most of the time it's BS, but hear me out. I really don't think many teams out there have guys like Justin Anderson, Akil Mitchell, or Darion Atkins. Most teams probably have to guard Dekker with an undersized wing or an oversized (slower) forward. With these three, we don't really sacrifice size or quickness. I'll throw Harris into the mix as well, though I'm not sure how much we'll see that matchup. For the most part, I think we'll either see Anderson when we go smaller, or Mitchell/Atkins when we go big. I think Bennett really likes the idea of the latter matchup because we could Virginia could use size to its advantage and take advantage of Dekker inside, while still being able to hang with him defensively. I'm not trying to say these options will definitely work. Dekker's a future pro and if he's feeling it, there's not much we can do. That said, I think we might present one of if not the toughest tests for him all year.




















C: Frank Kaminsky 7'0 234lbs Junior
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14WIS28.36.0-10.4.5781.5-3.1.4802.3-3.0.7505.41.02.01.02.11.115.8

Here I must man up and say that going into this year, I felt pretty confident about beating Wisconsin. We beat them in Madison last year, in a game where we started Teven Jones at point and led almost the entire game. We absolutely dominated on the glass and in the paint, and their forwards and center were not coming back this year. Given the outlook of Virginia's frontcourt, I thought it was just a huge mismatch inside and Virginia would once again dominate on both ends. Well, thanks to the play of Kaminsky thus far, I'm much less cocky. Bo Ryan needed him to step up, and Frank has in a BIG way. He's just a talented, experienced player, who has really found a nice fit in this Wisconsin offense. It's clear that even though he might not have played a ton before this year, he has been using to past few years to learn how he can be successful in this system. He's a great shooter and really knows how to find the right shots for himself. He's not really your typical back to the basket post players, but he can still make some things happen inside. Like the rest of the team, most of his points come from his awareness of spacing and reading the defense. He finds an open space, spots up, and knocks down the shot. Whoever guards him must be EXTREMELY disciplined. While Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey are certainly more talented offensively, Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins might be better answers for a guy like Kaminsky. They have more experience staying with guys on the perimeter. Gill and Tobey have the tendency to sag inside and leave their man open for the shot. This simply cannot happen against Wisconsin. On defense, Kaminsky is very good fundamentally. Obviously, he's tall, so it won't be a case where Tobey can just dump hook-shots over top of him, like he has with some of the lesser competition. If he's guarding Mike, Frank will be ready for that. Mike must know this and prepare for it. I do think Virginia will have some chances to score with guys like Mitchell, Gill, and Atkins, though. With Mitchell and Atkins, they're just more active and athletic. With Gill, he'll have a significant strength advantage and can either get easy looks or force Kaminsky into foul trouble (which would obviously be bad news for the Badgers).

Bench:

PF: Duje Dukan 6'9 220lbs Junior
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14WIS9.61.6-3.1.5200.6-1.5.4170.6-0.8.8332.10.50.00.00.90.34.5

Really only gets spot minutes unless there's foul trouble. They might need him to do a bit more against Virginia's size, though. A guy with experience and a bit of talent, but overall, nobody to worry too much about.


PF: Nigel Hayes 6'7 250lbs Freshman
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14WIS15.51.6-3.3.5000.0-0.0.0001.3-2.6.4761.80.80.60.42.81.14.5

Probably their most important bench player, at least as far as this game is concerned. Has looked good in games thus far, but the Badgers play a bit differently when he's on the floor. Again, as with Dukan, they may need to play him more than usual. Nothing against Hayes as a player (as this is to be expected with a Freshman), but the Badgers are just much less in sync and are just a different team when he's in. Maybe Ryan will feel the need to play differently to adjust to Virginia's size, and thus play Hayes alongside Kaminsky, but that would be a retreat from what they have done most of this year. That said, Hayes is a physical player who plays with more maturity than a lot of guys his age.

PG: Bronson Koenig 6'3 190lbs Freshman
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14WIS15.41.6-2.6.6110.7-1.3.5560.0-0.0.0001.01.10.10.11.70.63.9

Tony Bennett recruit who was someone I really wanted when he was in HS. I really like his game and think he would have been a good fit at UVA. We ended up with Perrantes so I'm not too disappointed, but Koenig will be a very good player for the Badgers, if not this year, then later in his career. Will come in to give the team a lift in certain scenarios. Good shooter and passer and typically makes good decisions.

(Not sure about G: George Marshall's status)



Virginia Starters:
PG: London Perrantes 6'2 189lbs Freshman
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14UVA25.60.6-3.5.1790.6-2.3.2780.9-1.1.7782.13.50.11.02.00.92.8

UVA will need more of the same from the rookie PG. Obviously, we'd love an offensive performance like the one vs. SMU, but we can still win even without that. He just has to make sure he keeps protecting the ball, making smart decisions, and putting his teammates in good positions to score. Defensively, he has to make sure to prevent UW's guards from driving into the lane and breaking down the defense. I think the experience of going up against a guard like Nic Moore will really help a young player like London. Hopefully, he does a bit better job of staying in front of Jackson so not to foul.


SG: Malcolm Brogdon 6'5 217lbs RS Sophomore
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14UVA26.83.8-7.4.5081.3-2.9.4352.0-2.3.8894.91.90.31.42.12.110.8

Whomever he's matched up against, Malcolm will have a pretty nice size advantage. He must exploit this and get into the lane. Hopefully, he continues to shoot the ball well, as that will keep Wisconsin's defenders honest. It'd be gravy he can force UW's guards into foul trouble. Now that I think about it, Malcolm might be this game's X-factor. When he and Joe are on the floor together, one of them will have a significantly smaller guy guarding them. Brust has had matchups like this many times in his career, but still, this is an opportunity for Malcolm to use his size and style of play to get UW in some trouble.


SF: Joe Harris 6'6 225lbs Senior
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14UVA26.84.4-7.3.6032.0-3.6.5521.6-2.9.5653.82.10.10.81.92.112.4

Again, Harris will likely have a few inches on his man, assuming it's Gasser. Hopefully that makes a difference in allowing Joe to have a bit more space to get shots off. Still, Gasser's aware of this and will work to make sure that's not the case. It'll certainly be a tough task, though, especially with the way Joe has been playing the past few games.


PF: Akil Mitchell 6'8 235lbs Senior
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14UVA22.52.1-4.6.4590.0-0.1.0001.8-3.5.5005.01.80.50.91.81.56.0

This would be a great game for Akil to break out and return to last year's form. It would be wrong to say Mitchell has played poorly this year. Rather, it's just that the frontcourt is so deep, everyone has to share both time and space on the floor. Wisconsin didn't really have an answer for Akil last year. He was just too active on both ends of the floor. Even if he doesn't go for 15 points, he can still dominate by grabbing every rebound and shutting down Dekker and Kaminsky.

C: Mike Tobey 6'11 253lbs Sophomore
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14UVA17.33.5-6.8.5190.0-0.1.0001.6-2.4.6845.10.31.00.51.81.58.6

I have a sneaky feeling this might be a quiet game for Mike. I could be wrong, especially if Kaminsky gets in foul trouble, but with the way the matchups are looking and the way Mitchell and Atkins played in Madison last year, I might rather go athletic rather than big. Still, Tobey is probably our most talented overall player, so he's always a threat, especially against a smaller team like Wisconsin.

Bench:

SF: Justin Anderson 6'6 227lbs Sophomore
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14UVA20.93.0-6.3.4801.1-3.0.3751.4-2.1.6474.31.50.60.81.11.48.5
He was essentially a non-factor last year. I don't expect that to be the case Wednesday night. If Justin's hitting shots like he has recently, few people in the country can match up with him. UVA already has a big size advantage in the backcourt, and a guy like Anderson just further widens the gap. If we go small and play him at the 4, matching up with Dekker, then he'll make his mark defensively. Still, I'd be surprised if he didn't play a big role in this game.


PF: Anthony Gill 6'8 230lbs RS Sophomore
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14UVA19.64.1-6.0.6880.0-0.0.0002.1-3.5.6074.10.60.40.31.61.610.4

While AG has been great offensively, he need to improve on the defensive end. For this reason, it wouldn't surprise me to see Tony go a different direction with his bigs. That said, it very well may be the case where Gill is just so valuable scoring the ball that we have no other choice but to give him a chance on the other end. He's not really a liability defensively, it's just that he's prone to a few bad breakdowns per game. He'll really need to find some consistency in this game.

PF: Darion Atkins 6'8 234lbs Junior
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14UVA16.92.0-4.6.4320.0-0.0.0000.6-1.6.3855.01.10.40.41.10.94.6

Other than Joe Harris, Darion might have been UVA's MVP in the win in Madison last year. The Badgers just had no one to match his activity. Thus far, while he has had a really solid season, making an impact in almost every game, he hasn't been relied on as much as I had expected. I think that might change here. I still don't think UW has an answer for him, especially on the glass, and since rebounding will be key, he might see starter's minutes. Also, like Mitchell, he can guard both Dekker and Kaminsky. For that reason alone, he'll see significant time.

SF: Evan Nolte 6'8 227lbs Sophomore
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14UVA11.31.0-2.7.3680.7-2.3.3130.9-1.3.6670.60.60.00.91.30.43.6

Without Nolte's timely three's last year, we probably don't leave Kohl with a win. He's had an up and down start this year, but seems to be getting more comfortable. I have no idea what type of minutes he'll see, but chances are we'll need him to hit another big shot or two. Hopefully his SMU performance will boost his confidence going forward. Defensively, there's not a great matchup for him, so look for him to try and be efficient.

PG: Teven Jones 6'0 182lbs Sophomore
SEASONTEAMMINFGM-FGAFG%3PM-3PA3P%FTM-FTAFT%REBASTBLKSTLPFTOPTS
2013-14UVA5.30.0-1.1.0000.0-0.5.0000.3-0.6.4000.30.30.00.10.40.10.3

Many fans forget that Teven started against Wisconsin last year. While Jontel did end up playing in that game, without Tev's play, no shot UVA wins that game. I'm not exactly sure why, but he has seen his role significantly diminish. I don't expect that to change in this game, but I had to mention him given his game last year.


Final Word:

I think this game really comes down to two things. First will be about how UVA executes defensively. Wisconsin's offense is so simple, yet so tough to defend. They have 5 guys who are legitimate threats to beat you on any given possession. They like to spread the floor out as much as possible with their 4 out 1 in lineup. Unsurprisingly, their offense revolves around constant motion, both with and without the ball. You have to be really disciplined defensively, or else they will eventually get quality looks which they will knock down. If UW gets especially hot, it'll be a long night for the Hoos. However, given Virginia's size, athleticism, and defense, they have as good a shot as any of slowing the Badgers down.

The second key is how big of a factor will Virginia's size advantage be. This is probably the best thing UVA has going for itself. If they can really take advantage of this and utilize this strength, it could be the difference. We know about the size of the frontcourt, but the size advantage of guys like Brogdon, Harris, and Anderson could be the real key to Virginia's success.

I don't like to make predictions, but as a UVA fan I feel much better about this game than I did going into VCU. I think we're much more prepared for this game than we were for the Rams. Don't get me wrong, Wisconsin is a better team than VCU, but I just think this is a better overall matchup for this team. Ultimately, I think Virginia realizes that this is a game it needs to win (at least much more than Wisconsin needs to) and should be able to get the job done.