Scouting the Spartans:
Let's get this out of the way: Michigan State is better than any team Virginia has played this season. To some, that might not seem like that bold of a statement, as the Spartans are a hugely popular pick to win the National Championship and have been playing incredible basketball recently. However, I think there's a portion of fans who tend to roll their eyes when they hear people go on and on about how good Michigan State is. They are under the impression that MSU is a 4 seed for a reason, injuries or no injuries. They'll be the first ones to remind you that a healthy Spartan squad lost to North Carolina, a team Virginia had little trouble with, by double digits at home. Or that they lost to a mediocre Illinois team (also at home) this very month. While these results should not be ignored, they do not shed light on just how difficult tomorrow night's game will be. I've been watching and analyzing teams on film in write to do these posts and I cannot recall a team ever being more impressive than this Michigan State team, at least since the start of the Big Ten Tournament.
Okay now that I've made that clear, enough gushing over the Spartans. They are great, but nowhere near invincible. While I slightly discounted the Illinois loss above, as they're clearly playing much better basketball than at the start of the month, I have to admit that the outcome is interesting to say the least. Many fans correctly assume that one of the deciding factors in tomorrow's game will be how well Virginia imposes its will on Michigan State and makes them play "Bennett-Ball." It makes one wonder what teams has MSU faced that play a similar style to Virginia's and what did that game look like...
Well, if you take a peek at the KenPom Ratings and focus primarily on Adjusted Tempo and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, you'll notice that Illinois is pretty darn comparable to UVA in those aspects of the game.
Adjusted Tempo:
Illinois- 329
Virginia- 346
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency:
Illinois- 11
Virginia- 5
So when you look at those numbers and consider that Illinois won a 53-46 game in East Lansing, it makes you feel pretty confident that win or lose, Virginia should be able to make the Spartans play its brand of basketball. Now this is not to say that, "Illinois' style worked and beat MSU. Therefore, Virginia's style will work and beat MSU." The result in the first matchup between the two Big Ten schools, a 78-62 Spartan victory in Champaign, shows how you can not simply look at that March 1 matchup in isolation. However, when you add to it the fact that Columbia and Northwestern were also able to make Michigan State slow it down (though they still lost), you start to feel pretty confident that Tony Bennett's team will be able to dictate the pace of the game.
Illinois was not just similar to Virginia in terms of tempo, but also in terms of defense. Everyone and their mother knows about Virginia's defense. While it is ranked only 5th in KenPom's efficiency, I have absolutely no problem saying UVA is the best defensive team in the country. The closest comparison to Virginia defensively out of Michigan State's opponents would be Ohio State. While the Buckeyes play a more physical, aggressive style of defense than UVA, they're still make it difficult as tough to score. MSU and OSU split their two meetings, which were both extremely close games. In both contests, Ohio State prevented the Spartans from scoring 70 points in regulation. This season, Michigan State played 9 games against top 30 defenses and only broke 70 once, and that was the second game of the year against the youngest team in the country, Kentucky. Interestingly, the Spartans only managed 65 points (and more shockingly allowed 79 when Leslie Mcdonald was still ineligible) points in a home loss to North Carolina, 11 points fewer than Virginia scored against the Tarheels.
The elephant in the room here is that Virginia's offense is SIGNIFICANTLY better than Illinois, Ohio State, Northwestern, and North Carolina. You hear many people compare this team to those of the Dick Bennett days in Wisconsin. While I understand the temptation to make such a comparison, Virginia is simply different from those squads. They're not trying to play slowly and defend hard to keep themselves in games, but rather they're doing it to keep the opponent out of games. Those former teams who tried to dribble the air out of the ball or required that every player touch the ball before anyone could shoot a la Hoosiers did so because they knew they didn't have the talent or offensive firepower to play otherwise. If UVA really wanted to, they could play exactly like Michigan State. Bennett chooses not to because when you insert talent and athletes into his system, it just makes it that much better. When you're facing the best defense in the country, you're already worried about whether you can score. But when you add in the fact that Virginia has incredible offensive efficiency, it makes you task twice as hard. With other Bennett teams, you're thinking about whether you're going to run out of possessions and look up at the scoreboard just to see you lost 53-51. With this team, you're worried that if you go a couple of possessions without a score, you're going to get run out of the gym. In this manner, this UVA team reminds me of some of the recent Alabama football teams. Everyone knows their defense will be great, but they tend to overlook their offense. In 2012-2013, when they beat Notre Dame for the National Championship, their offense was actually pretty damn good. But like this UVA team, its strength was in efficiency not explosiveness. If they got a stop, they'd then slowly march down the field and score. Another stop, same thing. One more, same thing. It got to the point where you had better find a way to score on them early, because once they get 10-14 on the board in the first half, the game becomes out of reach.
In terms of basketball, I actually can't really think of a team that is genuinely similar to Virginia. I think Pittsburgh is the closest, which is why it makes sense that they played UVA tough twice even though I think they are not really near the same level as them, but Virginia is more talented, athletic, and deeper than the Panthers. I mention all of this to point out that if Michigan State assumes that Virginia is just another Ohio State, they're in for a rude awakening.
So now that I have laid out one of the most important factors of the game, how Virginia's style of play will affect Michigan State, let us now turn to the individual matchups.
Backcourt:
At point guard, we will see London Perrantes vs. Keith Appling. Following his wrist injury, Appling just has not been the same player as the one that looked like an All American early in the year. It's sad to say this, but he's just a shadow of his former self. While he is still a talented player with great experience and athleticism, I do not expect him to be a big factor in the game, especially offensively. Expect Perrantes to play off him like Virginia did to Jontel Evans for so many years. Appling, who when healthy was a great three point shooter, has made just 2 from behind the arc since his return 11 games ago. By comparison, Perrantes has hit 23 threes in the past 10 games, shooting 64% from behind the arc during that stretch. The key for London is to keep Appling out of the lane and from getting to the rim. If Keith is going to score, it will most likely be close to the basket. Perrantes needs to make sure he limits his opportunities and essentially eliminates him as an offensive threat. On the other end of the floor, London will just need to do exactly what he has been doing: play steady basketball, protect the ball, and knock down shots. Appling is a solid defender, probably slightly above average. Again, I don't think this matchup will decide the game unless something uncharacteristic happens.
While everyone is excited for the main matchup in the post, the one at SG might be just as intriguing. In Malcolm Brogdon and Gary Harris, you have two pretty similar guards that score in a variety of ways. When you watch the two play, it's hard to discern many real difference in their games. They both can get to the rim and finish in traffic, they both have excellent midrange games, and they can both knock down threes. As far as their differences, I would say that Brogdon is bigger and stronger whereas Harris is a bit quicker and a little more skilled. Both are fine defenders, though Brogdon is the better of the two. He will have his work cut out for him, though, as Harris is a really tough cover. He has nice range and gets his shots up quickly, so the most important job Malcolm has will be making sure to contest his jumpers. Harris will have to prevent Brogdon from using his size to get to the rim, as Michigan State tends to be a little slow in help. This should be a really fun matchup. Whichever guy gets the better of the other might be moving onto the Elite 8.
At the wing is really the only place that I see a mismatch in this game. Joe Harris will likely be matched up with State's Denzel Valentine. Valentine is someone that has not really impressed me much on film. Offensively, he doesn't add much other than a made three here or there or an easy dunk/layup. Against Joe and the Pack-Line, I just can't see him being a factor offensively. You could actually compare his offensive game to Justin Anderson's at the moment, except Valentine doesn't have the wildcard of Justin's dynamic athleticism. And on defense, the mismatch might be even worse. Valentine is big and strong, but also pretty damn slow. He also has a tendency to take plays off and doesn't always go his hardest. Look to see Joe Harris be aggressive from the beginning, running all over the floor without the ball, coming off screens left and right. Valentine won't want to chase him and will likely call for a switch. Ultimately, Izzo might realize that this is indeed a mismatch and put Valentine on Brogdon (which is still a mismatch, though not as bad as one) and Harris on, well, Harris. If not, Joe could be in for a very big night.
Neither team is particularly deep off the bench in the backcourt, though both do have great 6th men. Justin Anderson will play early and often for the Wahoos and will likely matchup with Valentine or even Dawson in the post. As for the Spartans, their 6th man, Travis Trice, is a tiny guard who can really shoot it from deep (45%). Trice isn't a huge threat to drive, so whoever is guarding him has to make sure to stay close to him and contest his shots. One thing to watch with regards to Trice is how he deals with Virginia's size in the backcourt. Even London Perrantes has a good couple of inches on him, so he might find it difficult to shoot over the bigger defenders.
Frontcourt:
Fans who love good post play are in for a treat with this game. Both teams have talent and depth in the frontcourt and try to use that to wear the opponent down. The most talented player of the bunch is Adreian Payne. Payne is pretty much the poster-child of a Tom Izzo player. He's versatile, experienced, tough, etc. As a neutral fan of the game, I love to watch him play. He can do a little bit of everything with the ball. He has a nice low post game where he uses his big body to back defenders down for easy hook shots near the rim. But where he's really unique is how he shoots the ball like a guard. A lot of bigs can step out and hit deep shots when the defender gives them to him, but Payne actually creates shots for himself as a guard or wing would. This is why it's crucial to be disciplined when guarding Payne, because at any time he can pop out to the three point line and bury it. I expect Payne to play with great passion, as he knows how good of a defender is waiting for him and he does NOT want to be Izzo's first class to miss out on a Final Four appearance. That said, I expect Akil Mitchell will make things difficult for him, at the very least. Mitchell has elite quickness and footwork, which is something Payne probably hasn't seen before and may catch him off guard, on both ends of the floor. I expect Payne to reach double figures, but Mitchell can still claim a win if he makes sure Payne is inefficient. In the ACC Championship Game, Jabari Parker score 20+ yet all anyone could talk about was how Akil's defense won Virginia the game. Another outing like that one and Virginia could be moving on.
The other matchup in the post will likely come between Anthony Gill and Branden Dawson. While Mike Tobey has started every game for a while now, I think there's a chance we will see Gill on the floor to start the game. For one, Gill has been on fire as of late and has pretty much played starter's minutes regardless. Additionally, rumors are swirling that Tobey broke his thumb in practice sometime. While apparently the injury is a non-story, it might be the perfect cover to slide Gill into the starting lineup and play a bit of gamesmanship by making it seem like Mike is more hurt than he really is. Anyways, AG is going to play a lot, no matter what, and for most of the time, he'll be matched up with MSU's Dawson. For all intents and purposes, you can pretty much call Dawson a clone of Justin Anderson. They're both freak athletes, have great strength, and can defend multiple positions. Oddly enough, despite their similarities, I don't think we'll actually see them guarding each other all that much. Instead, Dawson should be tasked to go against the bigger Anthony Gill, but don't think he's intimidated by AG's size in the least. Dawson is used to being the shorter guy down low and his strength and athleticism makes his height more or less irrelevant. In all honesty, I don't know how this matchup will play out. Dawson has the strength to stand up to AG's aggressive drives, but is that enough from him finishing anyways? I wouldn't be surprised if the pair went for double digits or had relatively quiet games. The key to the matchup, though, will be AG making sure he limits Dawson on the offensive glass. He's one of the best offensive rebounders around and this is not a game where UVA can afford to give the other team second chances.
The rest of Virginia's froncourt includes Atkins, Nolte, and, obviously, Tobey. I think that Tobey will try and do his work on the MSU reserves, as neither Dawson nor Payne is a good matchup for him. I don't necessarily think he'd get abused by Payne or anything, but I don't want to see him matched up on AP for longer than necessary. Offensively, Tobey could do some damage against those reserves. However, Mike has not strung together back to back double digit outings since November. He had 11 on Sunday, will he break the streak?
As for those MSU reserves, they include Kenny Kaminski, Matt Costello, and Gavin Schilling. Schilling does not play all that much and I doubt that changes tomorrow night. Kaminski and Costello will see time, as both average about 15 points and 5 rebounds per game. Kaminski is more skilled and has range out to the three point line, whereas Costello is more of a "post presence" type of player and is a solid rebounder. Overall, I don't expect either to make any sort of a significant impact.
As for Atkins and Nolte, it pointless to predict what kind of role they will have because it really changes from game to game. They'll both play at least some, but how long that is depends how well they fit into the flow of the game and how the matchups play out on the floor.
Conclusion:
This is going to be a great basketball game. It's been said a lot lately, but it really feels much more like a Final Four game than a Sweet Sixteen game. Just look at the ticket prices. You can get tickets to both Final Four games AND the National Championship Game for less money than the cheapest ticket to tomorrow night's games. Yeah, UConn. Yeah, MSG. But still, this is an enormous game.
Strictly on paper, this one is as they say, "too close to call." Both teams are really good at what they do, so it's hard to either bending to the other's will. You're tempted to say "UVA will impose their will" but then you remember Izzo and how adaptable his teams have been. You're tempted to say "MSU will be too tough in transition and simply has more talent" but then you remember that you've heard that said about countless of UVA's opponents, including the last one, who proved no match for the Hoos. For this reason, I think this one simply comes down to execution. If the teams played 10 times, they might split 5-5, so this game will just be one of those five where the winning team does enough good things to come out on top.
Still, I must admit that the storyline, or rather storylines are a bit intimidating. They've got Tom Izzo, who has certainly has the resume of a champion. They've got Adreian Payne and Keith Appling, who are looking to avoid becoming Izzo's first class to miss out on the Final Four. They're finally healthy and playing like the team they were supposed to be a few months ago. The list goes on...
And yet, why should I turn back now? This team has not just met my expectations for them, but has far surpassed them. After my prediction that UVA would win the regular season title came true, I desperately wanted to show others that "I was right." But I wasn't right. Yeah, I thought we'd win the ACC, but with a record of 14-4 thanks a very favorable schedule. I didn't really believe that this team would be the consensus best team in the ACC. But they were. I was rewarded for my optimism and then some. Why should I throw in the towel now?
As I left the bookstore to walk back across Grounds to my apartment, I thought about the Sweet 16 T-Shirts on display around the store. I had absolutely no desire to purchase one. Not because of the cost. Not because of the design. Rather, there was something terminal about them. Don't get me wrong. I am not trying to diminish the feat of making it this far. If this is as far as we go, I might reconsider and ultimate buy one. But buying the shirt now reminded me of a feeling I had during a golf match in high school. It was the league championships and I was having the round of my life. I had NEVER played like this before. I had always thought I was capable of such a round and even perhaps that I should expect myself to play like that more often. Through the first nine, I was at the right balance between focused and relaxed, not too stressed, not too casual. As I got closer and closer towards the finish, and the rain became steadier and steadier, I began to think about the final score, and about how it would guarantee me All League. That kind of thinking was actually okay, as it made me work harder, realizing how badly I wanted it. But the worst thought that came across my mind was one of satisfaction. Somewhere in the midst of my focus on the finish, I thought to myself, "Man, even if things went south in these last couple of holes, I can still look back on this as the best I've ever played." I don't have to explain to you what happened, but I will point out that my thought couldn't have been further from the truth. The only thing I care about that round is what happened towards the end.
I am confident that Virginia is not satisfied. They will not make the same mistake I did. If someone beats them, it will be because they played better and nothing else. This team has a goal. This weekend is just another step.
Two feet at a time.
