Florida Gators
PG: Erving Walker 5'8 SR- Probably the thing that should most concern Virginia is Walker's experience. The Senior point guard has his fair share of NCAA Tournament experience, including a run to the Elite Eight a season ago. While his 14ppg and 5 apg are impressive, one must take into account Florida's fast paced tempo, which, like UNC, tends to pad individual stats. Still, Walker is definitely an offensive threat for the Gators. While because of size, one might be tempted to compare Walker with Jontel Evans, I think they are two different PG's. Walker prefers working the ball around the outside rather than looking to drive and attack the defense. This is both good and bad for Virginia. It's good because you don't really have to worry all that much about Walker breaking down the Pack Line defense by penetrating and looking to either finish (or draw a foul) or kick it out to an open shooter for a three. The bad is that Walker is a much better shooter than Evans, and is just one of the many Gators who is more than capable from deep. As I already mentioned, Florida likes to push the ball like Carolina. In transition, Walker usually looks to drive the ball all the way to the free throw line, then look to the wing to hit a trailer for a shot from three. He doesn't really like to take it to the hoop himself and finish, as we often see Jontel do. On defense, he is nowhere near as quick or aggressive as Evans. He doesn't do a great job at moving his feet and has trouble fighting through ball screens. He isn't a "bad" defender, but Jontel should be able to use his quickness to get by him. I assume Bub will guard Walker, although I could potentially see him on Boynton and Sammy on Walker, but most likely it will be the other way around. If Jontel can get up in Walker's grill by using his strength, quickness, and athleticism, he should be able to frustrate him and prevent him from getting good looks.
SG: Kenny Boynton 6'2 JR- Boynton is another experienced Gator guard who should be considered their biggest weapon on offense. He has scored in double figures in all but five of Florida's games this season, but has struggled with his shot the past couple of games. Like the rest of the Gators' guards, his shot is the most dangerous part of his game. He shoots 43% from three and 45% from the field. Over half of the shots he takes in a game are from deep. Bottom line: he lives and dies by the three ball. He's as good if not better than anyone else in the country and getting himself a good look. I assume Zeglinski will be on him for most of the game. Now while Sammy struggled offensively against NCST in the ACC Tournament, he did a great job on shutting down sharpshooter Scott Wood. Now Boynton is a different and more dangerous overall player than Wood, but Sammy's defense last game gives hope for this game. Sammy is quick enough to stay with him, but still it will be really difficult for him to prevent good looks all game. Boynton is just 10-31 from three in the past four games, so hopefully he will continue to struggle with his shot. However, even is Boynton is making his shots, it doesn't necessarily mean a loss for Virginia. In Florida's 10 losses, Boynton still averages about 15ppg. So even if he has a good night, Virginia will still have a chance. The biggest issue will be stopping him from penetrating. Boynton is a little bigger, stronger, and more athletic than Zeglinski, so he will probably try to beat him on occasion. While he is primarily a shooter, he still can beat you off the dribble. Defensively, Boynton will have a bit of a size advantage on Zeglinski, but his defense is pretty average. If Sammy can get his shot back, he should be able to take advantage of some open looks that the Florida defense will give him.
SF: Bradley Beal 6'3 FR- The 5 Star Recruit has had a great frosh season for the Gators. Right now, I think the best description of his game is a slasher/shooter. He'll look for the jumpshot first and if it isn't there, he'll up fake and slash to the basket. When he catches and shoots in rhythm, he can be a deadly shooter. He's also the Gator's biggest threat at attacking the defense. He's strong with the ball and can get to the rim. I really like the matchup with Joe Harris. I think they are fairly similar players, while Beal is smaller and quicker, yet stronger than Harris, who is more of a forward than a guard. I have been really impressed with Joe's defense this year. He has had to guard guys like Harrison Barnes, Tim Hardaway Jr., Ryan Kelly, and Travis McKie. Beal will be yet another test for the Sophomore. I don't think Joe will shut him down completely, but I think he can do a good job at preventing him from getting easy jumpshots and being physical with him when he drives to the basket. I also think Beal will struggle with the Pack Line when he drives, as he hasn't likely seen anything like it before. On defense, Beal is active and athletic. I think Joe's height advantage will give him open looks, but Beal's strength might limit his ability to get inside buckets. Still, I think Harris will be able to have another productive game. The key to this matchup will be rebounding. Both teams lack front court depth, so Beal and Harris are often called upon to rebound the ball. Joe will have to secure the long rebounds on Florida's misses from three. Virginia can't afford to give a team like the Gator's second chance opportunities.
F: Patric Young 6'9 SO- Young is a solid post player with a bright future. His go to move is his hook shot, which he uses frequently. While he is athletic and has some good upper body strength, he isn't as much of a physical force as some of the players Virginia has seen this year. This should be a relief to Virginia fans, who should be sick of teams with intimidating frontcourts by now. Still, Young is a very solid player that Virginia must take seriously. While he has only scored in the double digits in 4 of the past 12 games, three of those were against Kentucky. I would not be surprised at all if Florida tried to test Mike early and maybe get him some quick fouls by feeding Young early and often. I'm still not completely sold on his offensive skill-set, but he definitely is dangerous. However, I do not expect him to take over the game. I think the most important aspect of Young's matchup with Scott is on the defensive end. From what I've seen, Young is only a decent defender. He doesn't use his size and weight as well as he could and is capable of being pushed around in the post. I don't think he has faced a player like Mike, who will draw him further away from the basket than he's used to. When Mike tries to bang it down low, I think Young will get into some foul trouble, which is something the Gators can't afford. If this does happen, it could be a very good sign for Virginia. Quite simply, Patric Young is the only player on the Gator's roster who has even a chance of slowing down Mike Scott. If he isn't on the court, Mike should basically be able to score at will.
F: Erik Murphy 6'10: Don't let Murphy's size fool you. He is much more comfortable playing SF than he is playing C, but because of Florida's thin front line, he has to be a post player. He is often shoved around in the post and really has a hard time being physical with natural big men. After going up against Howell, Leslie, and Painter of NCSU and James, Gibson, and White of FSU the past couple of games, Murphy should be a much easier matchup for Akil Mitchell (and Darion Atkins). I think Akil will be able to get position down low and could actually be a scoring threat for Virginia, much like last game. So much attention will be paid to Mike Scott that Akil should be able to take advantage of his weaker, less athletic defender. The real issue with Murphy is on the offensive end. He is a great shooter who can be a major matchup problem for the post players guarding him. Thankfully, Akil has seen guys like him before (more later) and has done a pretty good job. He will have to work to stay with him and work through screens to prevent him from getting open looks.
Bench: This game will be won and lost by the starters. Florida has a slightly deeper, more talented, and more experienced bench than Virginia, but still, doesn't really have any impact reserves. Both teams are playing without their 6th man (Brogdon for Virginia, Yeguete for Florida; both ironically out with broken feet), so the reserves who do play will mainly serve as breathers for the starters or help for foul trouble. Both teams only have one post player on the bench, so finally, Virginia's lack of frontcourt depth shouldn't be an issue. The only guy UVA has to worry about is Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario. He's an active guard who will knock down some shots if left open.
I wanted to mention this when describing the players but I felt it would be best to save it for the end to serve as a sort of summary. When I watched Florida's game film, the first thing that popped into my head was that they looked like a more athletic version of Michigan. Obviously their tempos are different, but when we are talking about player matchups, there are many similarities between Michigan and Florida. Both have small but strong PG's who aren't afraid to shoot the ball, although Burke is more dangerous because of his ability to create for himself and drive to the basket. Both have deadly shooters in Novak and Boynton (different players but still most dangerous because of their shots), athletic wings in Hardaway and Beal, out of position bigs in Smotrycz and Murphy, and strong PF's in Morgan and Young. Now Virginia's lineup is obviously different from that Michigan win, when Assane Sene and Malcolm Brogdon were playing, but still, the indiviual matchups will be very similar on Friday.
Burke - Evans - Walker
Novak - Zeglinski - Boynton
Hardaway - Harris - Beal
Smotrycz - Mitchell - Murphy
Morgan - Scott - Young
I think this bodes well for Virginia. When I look at these matchups, I see a lot to like. The biggest key for Virginia will be slowing down the production of their guards. For Florida, it will be all about stopping Mike Scott. If Virginia finds any sort of help for Mike, I think it'll have a solid shot to pull of the upset. Either way, I expect it to be yet another very close game. I'll have some more analysis before Friday, so check back in the next couple of days.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Sunday, March 11, 2012
NCAA Tournament Field Projection:
With the Selection Show an hour away, here's a last minute field projection with seeding:
1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State, North Carolina
16 Seeds: Lehigh, Lamar, MV St, Vermont, WKU, Detroit
2 Seeds: Missouri, Ohio State, Duke, Kansas
15 Seeds: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, LIU Brooklyn, Montana
3 Seeds: Baylor, Marquette, Georgetown, Michigan
14 Seeds: South Dakota St., Belmont, NM ST., Loyola
4 Seeds: Louisville, Florida State, Indiana, Wisconsin
13 Seeds: Ohio, Davidson, Seton Hall, Colorado, BYU
5 Seeds: Wichita State, Florida, Murray State, Memphis
12 Seeds: South Florida, St. Bonaventure, Texas, NCST, California
6 Seeds: Creighton, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, New Mexico
11 Seeds: Colorado State, Xavier, VCU, Long Beach State
7 Seeds: San Diego State, St. Mary's, Temple, UNLV
10 Seeds: Virginia, Purdue, West Virginia, Southern Miss
8 Seeds: Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Alabama, Kansas State
9 Seeds: Iowa State, Connecticut, Harvard, St. Louis
So by looking at this, we would be playing one of SDSU, St. Mary's, Temple, or UNLV. I'd love to get St. Mary's or Temple. I want no part of the MWC teams.
1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State, North Carolina
16 Seeds: Lehigh, Lamar, MV St, Vermont, WKU, Detroit
2 Seeds: Missouri, Ohio State, Duke, Kansas
15 Seeds: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, LIU Brooklyn, Montana
3 Seeds: Baylor, Marquette, Georgetown, Michigan
14 Seeds: South Dakota St., Belmont, NM ST., Loyola
4 Seeds: Louisville, Florida State, Indiana, Wisconsin
13 Seeds: Ohio, Davidson, Seton Hall, Colorado, BYU
5 Seeds: Wichita State, Florida, Murray State, Memphis
12 Seeds: South Florida, St. Bonaventure, Texas, NCST, California
6 Seeds: Creighton, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, New Mexico
11 Seeds: Colorado State, Xavier, VCU, Long Beach State
7 Seeds: San Diego State, St. Mary's, Temple, UNLV
10 Seeds: Virginia, Purdue, West Virginia, Southern Miss
8 Seeds: Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Alabama, Kansas State
9 Seeds: Iowa State, Connecticut, Harvard, St. Louis
So by looking at this, we would be playing one of SDSU, St. Mary's, Temple, or UNLV. I'd love to get St. Mary's or Temple. I want no part of the MWC teams.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
NCSU Thoughts and Bubble Watch:
Yesterday's game was rough. What is most frustrating is that if you told me Scott, Harris, and Mitchell would combine for 51 points, UVA would win the rebounding and turnover battles, and have the same number of fouls as NCST, I would have been convinced Virginia won the game. In my preview, I said that rebounding would probably be the X-factor. This didn't turn out to be the case, as State found other ways to win. Maybe it was because they shot 54% against our defense, so they didn't really have that many offensive rebound opportunities. They hit a lot of shots that I just hadn't seen them hit before this season. Lorenzo Brown and CJ Leslie played the best games I have ever seen them play. They combined for 13-16 from the field for 34 points. Brown added two 3 pointers, 8 assists, 4 rebounds, and a block. Leslie grabbed 14 rebounds as well.
I didn't even really think Virginia's defense played that poorly. Early on, Mitchell and Atkins were completely overwhelmed by Leslie. Once Akil settled in, he did a much better job. I'm still a little frustrated that the refs never whistled Leslie for a hook (he did it on just about every one of his shots). That's a call that UNC and Duke get without hesitation. If they called an early hook on Leslie (there are three that instantly come to my mind), then he probably would have done it less, since he ended up in some foul trouble anyways. Concerning Brown, I thought Jontel did a good job, but the pack line didn't help him out enough. Maybe Bennett was just so concerned with Leslie, Howell, and Wood that he basically told Jontel that he would have to put Brown on "Bub Island", who knows. Brown also hit a couple of tough shots that he doesn't normally hit. I think his size advantage over Evans proved more important than I had anticipated.
Still, I wouldn't say we played horribly. We've shot worse and won; we've turned the ball over more and won; we've defended worse and won. I think it just came down to yet another instance where we just don't have the personnel to win games late. In an end of game situation, we're very predictable. The obvious choice is to give it to Scott, but that isn't as much of a no brainer as many assume. First of all, at the end of the game, you have to assume that you're not going to get a foul call. Scott's defenders know this and know they could be even more physical than earlier in the game. Also, with a big time player like Mike, it's almost too predictable to give him the ball and let him do his thing. The defense will see that coming. The defense also knows that the ball most likely won't be going to Mitchell, especially if they watched the FSU tape where he dropped the pass from Zeglinski. They're also aware that Sammy will likely sit on the outside and try to get a look at a three. So that leaves them to worry about Harris and Evans. With his broken hand, Harris is less of a threat to create his own shot and is most likely going to have to use a screen (which is what happened yesterday). The last option is for Jontel to drive. While predictable, it's hard to stop. But still, it's a risky shot, given his size. I think Virginia has really missed Brogdon the past couple of games. They need a guard who create different types of shots for himself.
I'll close with saying that Mike Scott is the best player in the ACC. Just look at how much harder he has to work for his shots. Zeller, once again, didn't have to work for any of his points. They all came pretty much uncontested, within 5 feet of the hoop. Now don't get me wrong, much of this is due to his fantastic instinct and great positioning, but still, I just don't see the evidence that he is a better player than Scott. Mike has the full attention of the opposing team's defense. He probably gets fouled on 90% of the shots he takes, yet doesn't get all of the calls Zeller gets. Against Maryland, a team with virtually no frontcourt, Zeller went for 22, 30, and 14 in three games. But he only hit 7, 5, and 4 FG's. Compare that to Mike's 25 and 35 in two games on 10 and 11 FG's each. Both are great players, but Mike deserves POY as much as Zeller, if not more. If there ever was a year for Co-POY.....
Bubble Watch:
Okay, I, like many of the "experts:, believe that we are "in", despite yesterday's loss. We have just too clean of a resume (one great win, some very good wins, especially on the road, and no terrible losses) and the bubble is just so bad that I can't see how the committee would leave us out. The only reason I could think of is that they don't think we are a good enough team with all of our injuries. If we we're getting blown out down the stretch, I could buy this. But we've shown that we can still be more than competitive with any team in the country, despite our thin lineup. Plus, our defense will likely be even more difficult to a team that hasn't faced it before. Because of these factors, I'm not really sweating. Here's some more evidence:
I went and made a list of all of the teams who might make the NCAA Tournament. I divided them into two groups: Locks/Already Clinched and Bubble. My "locks" are the teams that nobody is even considering to be on the bubble (ie we're not a "lock"). This gave me a list of 49 teams. So that leaves 18 spots left for the bubble teams to fight over. Here's the RPI Breakdown:
I didn't even really think Virginia's defense played that poorly. Early on, Mitchell and Atkins were completely overwhelmed by Leslie. Once Akil settled in, he did a much better job. I'm still a little frustrated that the refs never whistled Leslie for a hook (he did it on just about every one of his shots). That's a call that UNC and Duke get without hesitation. If they called an early hook on Leslie (there are three that instantly come to my mind), then he probably would have done it less, since he ended up in some foul trouble anyways. Concerning Brown, I thought Jontel did a good job, but the pack line didn't help him out enough. Maybe Bennett was just so concerned with Leslie, Howell, and Wood that he basically told Jontel that he would have to put Brown on "Bub Island", who knows. Brown also hit a couple of tough shots that he doesn't normally hit. I think his size advantage over Evans proved more important than I had anticipated.
Still, I wouldn't say we played horribly. We've shot worse and won; we've turned the ball over more and won; we've defended worse and won. I think it just came down to yet another instance where we just don't have the personnel to win games late. In an end of game situation, we're very predictable. The obvious choice is to give it to Scott, but that isn't as much of a no brainer as many assume. First of all, at the end of the game, you have to assume that you're not going to get a foul call. Scott's defenders know this and know they could be even more physical than earlier in the game. Also, with a big time player like Mike, it's almost too predictable to give him the ball and let him do his thing. The defense will see that coming. The defense also knows that the ball most likely won't be going to Mitchell, especially if they watched the FSU tape where he dropped the pass from Zeglinski. They're also aware that Sammy will likely sit on the outside and try to get a look at a three. So that leaves them to worry about Harris and Evans. With his broken hand, Harris is less of a threat to create his own shot and is most likely going to have to use a screen (which is what happened yesterday). The last option is for Jontel to drive. While predictable, it's hard to stop. But still, it's a risky shot, given his size. I think Virginia has really missed Brogdon the past couple of games. They need a guard who create different types of shots for himself.
I'll close with saying that Mike Scott is the best player in the ACC. Just look at how much harder he has to work for his shots. Zeller, once again, didn't have to work for any of his points. They all came pretty much uncontested, within 5 feet of the hoop. Now don't get me wrong, much of this is due to his fantastic instinct and great positioning, but still, I just don't see the evidence that he is a better player than Scott. Mike has the full attention of the opposing team's defense. He probably gets fouled on 90% of the shots he takes, yet doesn't get all of the calls Zeller gets. Against Maryland, a team with virtually no frontcourt, Zeller went for 22, 30, and 14 in three games. But he only hit 7, 5, and 4 FG's. Compare that to Mike's 25 and 35 in two games on 10 and 11 FG's each. Both are great players, but Mike deserves POY as much as Zeller, if not more. If there ever was a year for Co-POY.....
Bubble Watch:
Okay, I, like many of the "experts:, believe that we are "in", despite yesterday's loss. We have just too clean of a resume (one great win, some very good wins, especially on the road, and no terrible losses) and the bubble is just so bad that I can't see how the committee would leave us out. The only reason I could think of is that they don't think we are a good enough team with all of our injuries. If we we're getting blown out down the stretch, I could buy this. But we've shown that we can still be more than competitive with any team in the country, despite our thin lineup. Plus, our defense will likely be even more difficult to a team that hasn't faced it before. Because of these factors, I'm not really sweating. Here's some more evidence:
I went and made a list of all of the teams who might make the NCAA Tournament. I divided them into two groups: Locks/Already Clinched and Bubble. My "locks" are the teams that nobody is even considering to be on the bubble (ie we're not a "lock"). This gave me a list of 49 teams. So that leaves 18 spots left for the bubble teams to fight over. Here's the RPI Breakdown:
Bubble (32 for 18 spots):
Southern Miss-19
Colorado State-27
California-36
Iona-41
Marshall-42
BYU-44
Purdue-45
Xavier-45
Texas-48
NCST-49
Oral Roberts-50
Virginia-52
USF-53
Ole Miss-54
WVU-56
MTSU-57
Northwestern-60
Miami-61
Nevada-63
Oregon-64
Drexel-66
Seton Hall-67
Dayton->68
Arizona->68
Washington-68
Mississippi State->68
Tennessee->68
So even if you only go off of RPI, which is not our strong suit right now, we're still comfortably "in". Obviously, some of these teams are still playing, so they have opportunities to help or hurt their RPI's. I think our RPI will end up somewhere around 50. The only team behind UVA on this list that I think could have the potential to jump us is WVU and USF.
However, I think Virginia will jump some teams in front of it. First of all, despite yesterday, I think UVA still has a stronger resume than NCST. Virginia has 7 Top 100 wins, 3 of those on the road, one neutral, and 4 by double digits. NCST has 6 Top 100 wins, one of those on the road, three neutral, none of them by more than 5 points. Virginia also has a 12 point win against #10 Michigan, NCST doesn't have anything close to that. NCST also has the same loss to Clemson on the road, which was our only "bad loss" (we also beat Clemson, they only played them once). NCST also has an 11 point home loss to #195 Georgia Tech. Basically the only reason why NCST's RPI isn't in the 70's is because they played Syracuse and Vandy.
Virginia should also jump Oral Roberts (3 T100 Wins, 2 T50, 2 sub150 losses), BYU (5 T100 wins, 1 T50, no impressive road wins), and Iona (5 T100 wins, 0 T50, 3 sub 150 losses, 2 sub 200 losses). Personally, I think we'll jump some others, but I was just being conservative here.
Most experts have us more comfortably in than this "math" shows, but my point is, even if you try and create a worst case scenario, there's just no real way to leave Virginia out. Our combination of good wins (one great), road wins, double digit wins, no real bad losses, and some impressive close losses is something not many teams have.
Stop by before the selection show. I'll do some last minute Blind Resumes tomorrow after the ACC Tournament Final.
Friday, March 9, 2012
ACC Tourney: NCSU Game Preview
Okay, so I'm finally back in my hotel after a long couple of days (let's go ahead and make that weeks, which explains the giant gap in posts). If you remember the first NCST game from earlier this year, the first thing that comes to your mind is likely how they absolutely dominated Virginia on the boards. Well, not surprisingly, I believe that will be what eventually determines the game. If Virginia lets the Pack double them on the boards like last time, they will have an extremely tough time finding a way to win. If they can at least be competitive on the glass, then their chances of victory will dramatically increase.
Earlier today I got a chance to see this NCST team in person as they took down Boston College. Through the anxious enthusiasm of their players, coaches, and fans, NCST made it known that they were not okay with being in the "First Four Out". They wanted to use this weekend to propel them towards earning an NCAA tournament bid. Before this afternoon, my educated guess would say that they were on the outside looking in. While losses by Northwestern and Washington may have indirectly helped their cause, the Wolfpack would have sent themselves to the NIT with a loss to the Eagles, regardless of what happened to other "bubble" teams.
Thanks partially to some poor BC shooting and unforced turnovers but mainly to their energy at the beginning of the game, the Pack started out on fire, claiming a 14-0 early lead. Many in the building, including myself, wondered whether NCST might drop a 40+ point beatdown on the Eagles, sling-shotting all out their momentum into tomorrow's Quarterfinal game vs. UVA. But State cooled down as BC began to heat up. Eventually, NCST was just too much for Steve Donahue's young, undersized, and, quite frankly, underskilled team. I thought this game, as well as what I saw in the tape from the first State-UVa game helped give me some insight as to what Virginia should expect from their opponent tomorrow.
NC State As a Team:
As I mentioned above, I was a bit of afraid of a dominating Wolpack victory, giving them tons of momentum against a UVA team that isn't exactly peaking. Well, while they did win by 21, I don't really think State played well enough today to gain the type of confidence that might make UVA nervous. As well as they played at the beginning and end of the game, they were just as bad in the middle. After being up 14-0 (and later 43-28 with 17 minutes remaining), they allowed BC to cut the lead to 7 with 8 minutes left. I think the Play-by-Play on ESPN best shows how they let the Eagles back into the game: "Clifford layup...Humphrey layup...Jackson layup...Daniels Three Pointer...Anderson Layup...Anderson Layup...Clifford Tip Shot...Anderson Tip Shot...Daniels Layup". NCST just assumed victory and really stopped playing defense.
I think this is key. I have criticized State's defense all year and what I saw today only strengthened my case. It's not that they are poor defenders, but rather none of them seem to have the will to do what it takes to be good to great defenders. They just always seem to be a step late, one rotation over, etc. My point is twofold. First, I still don't really think they will have any sort of an answer for Mike, even with a double team. Secondly, after a full 40 minutes today, I wonder what kind of gas they will have in their tanks to go hard on defense, especially when the possessions will be much longer than usual. I'll go more in depth on this later.
Wolfpack Players:
PG: Lorenzo Brown 6'5- Brown is a tall, athletic point guard who I like to describe as "hot or cold". It seems like half of the things he does drop your jaw in amazement, while the other times he leaves State fans shaking their heads. Today against BC, he was more of the former, but he definitely showed flashes of coldness. I think his biggest problem is tempo. He seems to really struggle with the question of when he should push the ball versus when he should slow it down and set the offense. He only had 3 turnovers today, but you he had a couple other close calls that showed his tempo hesitance. Still, his 8 assists (and 12 pts) show what he brings. He's pretty solid in most of the PG categories offensively: good vision, nice passing touch, runs the offense well, etc. However, I would definitely not consider him a strong defender. While some might worry at the size difference from Jontel (Brown is a good 5-6 inches taller), I think the bigger mismatch is Bub's quickness and ability to get to the rack against Brown's average lateral quickness and defensive abilities. After what Brown said about Mike Scott today, he's on my good side. He's a good player that has potential to be great if he stays all four years. Thankfully, for our sake, he's not quite there yet. I think it will be a great, competitive battle at PG. Should be fun to watch.
SG- C.J. Williams 6'5- After watching Williams live, a comparison came to me. I thought I might have been wrong, but after watching the night games, I'll stick to it. I said to myself that Williams reminded me of a Dorenzo Hudson from about two years ago. That slimmer, quicker version of Hudson and Williams seem to be similar players. Both like to slash with a one or two dribble pull up, both like to be physical, and both have an inconsistent shot. Today, Williams was off. He wasn't much of a factor at all in the outcome in the game. Joe guarded him last game and I expect we will see the same matchup. I still hesitate to expect a certain performance from Joe with his broken hand, but I think he will be fine against Williams. Even though he gives good effort, he seems to be either on the wrong side of screens or just flat out in the wrong position more than most. Depending on how he is playing tomorrow, we might want to switch our matchups and focus on the guy I'm most worried about...............
SF: Scott Wood 6'6- Wood was straight money today (7-11, 5-9 3p, 22 pts). Even his misses looked good. To be fair, BC gave him more good looks than we did last meeting, but he made some tough ones too. If he shoots like that, we might be in for trouble. Initially I wanted Joe of him to match up with his height to put a hand in his face. The more I thought about it, the more I felt we needed someone who could keep up with him as he ran off screens. While I usually don't like Sammy guarding bigger players (cough cough Michael Snaer), I think speed is more important here. I didn't like the Snaer matchup because Snaer is obviously a lot more than just a shooter. Wood will only really beat us with his shot, so hopefully Sammy will be able to keep up with him and make it difficult. Maybe Sammy did just this last game...maybe Wood was just cold, who knows. On the other end, Sammy had no trouble at all shooting over Wood in the first half, but struggled to get a shot off later in the game. I think Virginia is really going to need another big game from him tomorrow.
F C.J. Leslie 6'8-
I still don't really get C.J. Leslie. Like Brown, sometimes he really lives up to that 5 star, lottery pick status, but other times I'm screaming lazy and overrated. He had another one of those games today, a couple of dominant plays along with long stretches of nothingness. Last game Bennett had Akil, Darion, and Joe switching off on him, and I think we'll see more of the same. I think Darion's role in this game will be crucial. Because of the physical presence of Howell (more later) and our limited rotation, there's a good chance Akil or Mike will get in foul trouble. Darion will need to move his feet better in order to be physical with his body, not with his hands. Leslie has just about the same body as him, so in theory, it should be a good matchup. If Atkins can prevent him from grabbing offensive boards/tips, it will really help Virginia's cause as a team. Last game, Gottfried put Leslie on Scott for much of the game. I don't think that really works, but then again, I don't think Howell does either. Scott shouldn't have any trouble getting his.
F Richard Howell 6'8- Last game, Howell grabbed 5 more offensive rebounds than Virginia's entire team, and only 2 fewer total rebounds. If that happens again, it might be a long afternoon for the Wahoos. If the referees allow him to be as physical (a better way to put it would be "if the refs let him grab and shove UVA's post players out of the way") as in the previous game, the game could get ugly quick. However, the BC game might give Virginia fans some hope. Howell, while he snagged a couple of early rebounds, was called for two straight over the back fouls, to the dismay of Pack fans. Those calls seemed to have affected Howell's aggressiveness on the glass. If he continues to play slightly more tentative in fighting for rebounds, Virginia's bigs might have a better chance limiting State's second chance opportunities. Let's be real here; Howell will get his share of rebounds and putbacks.. The combination of his strength and positioning is just too much for Scott, Mitchell, and Atkins to shut down completely. On the defensive side of the ball, Howell is pretty much just average. Obviously, he prefers to be physical and use his body more than he likes to move his feet and play good defense. He won't have a shot at stopping or slowing down Mike Scott when he's checking him. He can probably take care of Mitchell or Atkins, but considering they aren't really a big part of the offense anyways, that doesn't seem like a big deal for Bennett's team. Bottom line: get Howell some early fouls or just send him a message that you're not gonna put up with him shoving guys to get a rebound. I think Virginia's big men will do a better job of this than last game.
Bench:
Given what has happened the past couple of weeks and months, Virginia fans are likely thirsty for some good news or some sort of a break. Well, the good news is that, like Virginia, NCST plays a 7 man rotation. The bad news is that their two guys off of the bench tend to make a much bigger difference in the game. I'm not saying their "better" basketball players than Atkins or Jesperson...it just mainly comes down to the fact that they are a Junior and Senior.
Alex Johnson 5'10- Johnson is a small, but quick guard. In comparison to Brown, he's better at getting deeper into the lane, kind of like Jontel. However, once he gets into the lane, he doesn't really know what to do with the ball. That said, he's an overall good passer and defender with good speed. I would call him a lesser version of Jontel, only with a little more of a jumpshot (but still not that much of one). His handle is questionable, so if Brown is out of the game, Jontel should give him some trouble. Johnson will probably get around 15 minutes, and isn't really likely to change or take over the game, but he's a solid role player.
Deshawn Painter 6'9- Some of you might remember him as a guy who Dave Leitao recruited pretty
hard. Painter is slightly taller and slimmer than Howell, but likes to play a similarly physical type of basketball. He's going to be a third option for defending Mike Scott, if (or when) the other two start to struggle. He has good defensive potential, but probably won't be able to give Mike much trouble. Offensively, he looks pretty darn uncomfortable with the ball in his hands. I wouldn't be surprised if we decided to play risky and put the double team on him some. I'm almost certain that he would cough the ball up. Where Painter is dangerous is on the glass. While his rebounding numbers are not great, he's one of those guys who seems to cause more team rebounds, even if they aren't necessarily going to him (I would describe Assane similarly). He's going to be a fresh body of the bench who's job will be to attack UVA's post players and try to: A) get offensive rebounds; B) Get Virginia in foul trouble. However, I just don't see him being all that successful.
Keys to the Game:
1) Rebound, Rebound, Rebound: If it sounds like I'm beating a dead horse, it's because I'm not quite convinced that this horse is dead yet. If Virginia gets crushed on the boards again, they will probably be going home early. They got lucky last time (most winning teams aren't double up on the glass). Tied into this is the issue of foul trouble. Last game, State got so many early offensive boards and putbacks that Virginia's players became frustrated and committed dumb fouls. This cannot happen with such a limited rotation. You can eliminate a lot of the foul concerns by securing as many rebounds as possible. If UVA does this, it will take away NCST's biggest threat.
2) Attack on Offense: As I mentioned earlier, NCST's defense has always seemed soft to me. First of all, I don't see them stopping Mike Scott. Holding him to anywhere from 15-20 points should be considered a success for the Pack. Anything more, and Mike could be in "put-da-team-on-mah-back" mode. The other real weakness I see in the State defense is against Jontel Evans. Bub has had one hell of a 2nd half of the season. NCST struggled mightily against the dribble penetration of BC's guards. I don't think Bub should have any trouble slicing through the Pack (not Pack Line) defense. Also, they are not very good on ball screens, so a little Mike and Bub action could be very effective. Even if Mike dominates, UVA will have to have another option. I'm not comfortable with predicting Sammy or Joe to go off or catch fire, but I do think Jontel could have a big game.
3) Make State Work for Tough Shots: Virginia needs to prevent two sorts of shots in order to be successful. The first of these is the easy put back from an offensive board. We've talked enough about this, so by now, it should be quite obvious. The other potentially killer shot is an open three for Scott Wood. Virginia has to do a better job on him than BC did today. If he goes off for 22, that's basically a W for NCST. I think Sammy is capable of staying with him and making him take contested shots. That's all Bennett can hope for. Virginia will just have to hope that Wood doesn't hit the tough ones.
This game is going to be a battle. I'd be very surprised if the margin of victory was by more than 5 points. State will be fighting for its postseason life, while Virginia is trying to claim a rare ACC Tournament Semifinal appearance. Virginia won't have a short rotation to blame for this game, as both teams will likely play exactly 7 players each. UVa will have to be better on the glass, stay out of foul trouble, and work through the Wolfpack's vulnerable defense. State will have to try and slow Mike Scott, guard the ball screen, and find a way to score against the Pack Line Defense (as well as hope Wood hits his shots). I still don't really think I'm ready to give a score prediction with this Virginia team. It's just really hard to predict how they will continue to respond. I will say that I expect a great basketball game. Should be a fun one. Check back here Saturday morning for some postgame analysis (and hopefully a Semifinal preview).
Hopefully all the motivation Virginia needs is the potential rematch with UNC looming.....
Earlier today I got a chance to see this NCST team in person as they took down Boston College. Through the anxious enthusiasm of their players, coaches, and fans, NCST made it known that they were not okay with being in the "First Four Out". They wanted to use this weekend to propel them towards earning an NCAA tournament bid. Before this afternoon, my educated guess would say that they were on the outside looking in. While losses by Northwestern and Washington may have indirectly helped their cause, the Wolfpack would have sent themselves to the NIT with a loss to the Eagles, regardless of what happened to other "bubble" teams.
Thanks partially to some poor BC shooting and unforced turnovers but mainly to their energy at the beginning of the game, the Pack started out on fire, claiming a 14-0 early lead. Many in the building, including myself, wondered whether NCST might drop a 40+ point beatdown on the Eagles, sling-shotting all out their momentum into tomorrow's Quarterfinal game vs. UVA. But State cooled down as BC began to heat up. Eventually, NCST was just too much for Steve Donahue's young, undersized, and, quite frankly, underskilled team. I thought this game, as well as what I saw in the tape from the first State-UVa game helped give me some insight as to what Virginia should expect from their opponent tomorrow.
NC State As a Team:
As I mentioned above, I was a bit of afraid of a dominating Wolpack victory, giving them tons of momentum against a UVA team that isn't exactly peaking. Well, while they did win by 21, I don't really think State played well enough today to gain the type of confidence that might make UVA nervous. As well as they played at the beginning and end of the game, they were just as bad in the middle. After being up 14-0 (and later 43-28 with 17 minutes remaining), they allowed BC to cut the lead to 7 with 8 minutes left. I think the Play-by-Play on ESPN best shows how they let the Eagles back into the game: "Clifford layup...Humphrey layup...Jackson layup...Daniels Three Pointer...Anderson Layup...Anderson Layup...Clifford Tip Shot...Anderson Tip Shot...Daniels Layup". NCST just assumed victory and really stopped playing defense.
I think this is key. I have criticized State's defense all year and what I saw today only strengthened my case. It's not that they are poor defenders, but rather none of them seem to have the will to do what it takes to be good to great defenders. They just always seem to be a step late, one rotation over, etc. My point is twofold. First, I still don't really think they will have any sort of an answer for Mike, even with a double team. Secondly, after a full 40 minutes today, I wonder what kind of gas they will have in their tanks to go hard on defense, especially when the possessions will be much longer than usual. I'll go more in depth on this later.
Wolfpack Players:
PG: Lorenzo Brown 6'5- Brown is a tall, athletic point guard who I like to describe as "hot or cold". It seems like half of the things he does drop your jaw in amazement, while the other times he leaves State fans shaking their heads. Today against BC, he was more of the former, but he definitely showed flashes of coldness. I think his biggest problem is tempo. He seems to really struggle with the question of when he should push the ball versus when he should slow it down and set the offense. He only had 3 turnovers today, but you he had a couple other close calls that showed his tempo hesitance. Still, his 8 assists (and 12 pts) show what he brings. He's pretty solid in most of the PG categories offensively: good vision, nice passing touch, runs the offense well, etc. However, I would definitely not consider him a strong defender. While some might worry at the size difference from Jontel (Brown is a good 5-6 inches taller), I think the bigger mismatch is Bub's quickness and ability to get to the rack against Brown's average lateral quickness and defensive abilities. After what Brown said about Mike Scott today, he's on my good side. He's a good player that has potential to be great if he stays all four years. Thankfully, for our sake, he's not quite there yet. I think it will be a great, competitive battle at PG. Should be fun to watch.
SG- C.J. Williams 6'5- After watching Williams live, a comparison came to me. I thought I might have been wrong, but after watching the night games, I'll stick to it. I said to myself that Williams reminded me of a Dorenzo Hudson from about two years ago. That slimmer, quicker version of Hudson and Williams seem to be similar players. Both like to slash with a one or two dribble pull up, both like to be physical, and both have an inconsistent shot. Today, Williams was off. He wasn't much of a factor at all in the outcome in the game. Joe guarded him last game and I expect we will see the same matchup. I still hesitate to expect a certain performance from Joe with his broken hand, but I think he will be fine against Williams. Even though he gives good effort, he seems to be either on the wrong side of screens or just flat out in the wrong position more than most. Depending on how he is playing tomorrow, we might want to switch our matchups and focus on the guy I'm most worried about...............
SF: Scott Wood 6'6- Wood was straight money today (7-11, 5-9 3p, 22 pts). Even his misses looked good. To be fair, BC gave him more good looks than we did last meeting, but he made some tough ones too. If he shoots like that, we might be in for trouble. Initially I wanted Joe of him to match up with his height to put a hand in his face. The more I thought about it, the more I felt we needed someone who could keep up with him as he ran off screens. While I usually don't like Sammy guarding bigger players (cough cough Michael Snaer), I think speed is more important here. I didn't like the Snaer matchup because Snaer is obviously a lot more than just a shooter. Wood will only really beat us with his shot, so hopefully Sammy will be able to keep up with him and make it difficult. Maybe Sammy did just this last game...maybe Wood was just cold, who knows. On the other end, Sammy had no trouble at all shooting over Wood in the first half, but struggled to get a shot off later in the game. I think Virginia is really going to need another big game from him tomorrow.
F C.J. Leslie 6'8-
I still don't really get C.J. Leslie. Like Brown, sometimes he really lives up to that 5 star, lottery pick status, but other times I'm screaming lazy and overrated. He had another one of those games today, a couple of dominant plays along with long stretches of nothingness. Last game Bennett had Akil, Darion, and Joe switching off on him, and I think we'll see more of the same. I think Darion's role in this game will be crucial. Because of the physical presence of Howell (more later) and our limited rotation, there's a good chance Akil or Mike will get in foul trouble. Darion will need to move his feet better in order to be physical with his body, not with his hands. Leslie has just about the same body as him, so in theory, it should be a good matchup. If Atkins can prevent him from grabbing offensive boards/tips, it will really help Virginia's cause as a team. Last game, Gottfried put Leslie on Scott for much of the game. I don't think that really works, but then again, I don't think Howell does either. Scott shouldn't have any trouble getting his.
F Richard Howell 6'8- Last game, Howell grabbed 5 more offensive rebounds than Virginia's entire team, and only 2 fewer total rebounds. If that happens again, it might be a long afternoon for the Wahoos. If the referees allow him to be as physical (a better way to put it would be "if the refs let him grab and shove UVA's post players out of the way") as in the previous game, the game could get ugly quick. However, the BC game might give Virginia fans some hope. Howell, while he snagged a couple of early rebounds, was called for two straight over the back fouls, to the dismay of Pack fans. Those calls seemed to have affected Howell's aggressiveness on the glass. If he continues to play slightly more tentative in fighting for rebounds, Virginia's bigs might have a better chance limiting State's second chance opportunities. Let's be real here; Howell will get his share of rebounds and putbacks.. The combination of his strength and positioning is just too much for Scott, Mitchell, and Atkins to shut down completely. On the defensive side of the ball, Howell is pretty much just average. Obviously, he prefers to be physical and use his body more than he likes to move his feet and play good defense. He won't have a shot at stopping or slowing down Mike Scott when he's checking him. He can probably take care of Mitchell or Atkins, but considering they aren't really a big part of the offense anyways, that doesn't seem like a big deal for Bennett's team. Bottom line: get Howell some early fouls or just send him a message that you're not gonna put up with him shoving guys to get a rebound. I think Virginia's big men will do a better job of this than last game.
Bench:
Given what has happened the past couple of weeks and months, Virginia fans are likely thirsty for some good news or some sort of a break. Well, the good news is that, like Virginia, NCST plays a 7 man rotation. The bad news is that their two guys off of the bench tend to make a much bigger difference in the game. I'm not saying their "better" basketball players than Atkins or Jesperson...it just mainly comes down to the fact that they are a Junior and Senior.
Alex Johnson 5'10- Johnson is a small, but quick guard. In comparison to Brown, he's better at getting deeper into the lane, kind of like Jontel. However, once he gets into the lane, he doesn't really know what to do with the ball. That said, he's an overall good passer and defender with good speed. I would call him a lesser version of Jontel, only with a little more of a jumpshot (but still not that much of one). His handle is questionable, so if Brown is out of the game, Jontel should give him some trouble. Johnson will probably get around 15 minutes, and isn't really likely to change or take over the game, but he's a solid role player.
Deshawn Painter 6'9- Some of you might remember him as a guy who Dave Leitao recruited pretty
hard. Painter is slightly taller and slimmer than Howell, but likes to play a similarly physical type of basketball. He's going to be a third option for defending Mike Scott, if (or when) the other two start to struggle. He has good defensive potential, but probably won't be able to give Mike much trouble. Offensively, he looks pretty darn uncomfortable with the ball in his hands. I wouldn't be surprised if we decided to play risky and put the double team on him some. I'm almost certain that he would cough the ball up. Where Painter is dangerous is on the glass. While his rebounding numbers are not great, he's one of those guys who seems to cause more team rebounds, even if they aren't necessarily going to him (I would describe Assane similarly). He's going to be a fresh body of the bench who's job will be to attack UVA's post players and try to: A) get offensive rebounds; B) Get Virginia in foul trouble. However, I just don't see him being all that successful.
Keys to the Game:
1) Rebound, Rebound, Rebound: If it sounds like I'm beating a dead horse, it's because I'm not quite convinced that this horse is dead yet. If Virginia gets crushed on the boards again, they will probably be going home early. They got lucky last time (most winning teams aren't double up on the glass). Tied into this is the issue of foul trouble. Last game, State got so many early offensive boards and putbacks that Virginia's players became frustrated and committed dumb fouls. This cannot happen with such a limited rotation. You can eliminate a lot of the foul concerns by securing as many rebounds as possible. If UVA does this, it will take away NCST's biggest threat.
2) Attack on Offense: As I mentioned earlier, NCST's defense has always seemed soft to me. First of all, I don't see them stopping Mike Scott. Holding him to anywhere from 15-20 points should be considered a success for the Pack. Anything more, and Mike could be in "put-da-team-on-mah-back" mode. The other real weakness I see in the State defense is against Jontel Evans. Bub has had one hell of a 2nd half of the season. NCST struggled mightily against the dribble penetration of BC's guards. I don't think Bub should have any trouble slicing through the Pack (not Pack Line) defense. Also, they are not very good on ball screens, so a little Mike and Bub action could be very effective. Even if Mike dominates, UVA will have to have another option. I'm not comfortable with predicting Sammy or Joe to go off or catch fire, but I do think Jontel could have a big game.
3) Make State Work for Tough Shots: Virginia needs to prevent two sorts of shots in order to be successful. The first of these is the easy put back from an offensive board. We've talked enough about this, so by now, it should be quite obvious. The other potentially killer shot is an open three for Scott Wood. Virginia has to do a better job on him than BC did today. If he goes off for 22, that's basically a W for NCST. I think Sammy is capable of staying with him and making him take contested shots. That's all Bennett can hope for. Virginia will just have to hope that Wood doesn't hit the tough ones.
This game is going to be a battle. I'd be very surprised if the margin of victory was by more than 5 points. State will be fighting for its postseason life, while Virginia is trying to claim a rare ACC Tournament Semifinal appearance. Virginia won't have a short rotation to blame for this game, as both teams will likely play exactly 7 players each. UVa will have to be better on the glass, stay out of foul trouble, and work through the Wolfpack's vulnerable defense. State will have to try and slow Mike Scott, guard the ball screen, and find a way to score against the Pack Line Defense (as well as hope Wood hits his shots). I still don't really think I'm ready to give a score prediction with this Virginia team. It's just really hard to predict how they will continue to respond. I will say that I expect a great basketball game. Should be a fun one. Check back here Saturday morning for some postgame analysis (and hopefully a Semifinal preview).
Hopefully all the motivation Virginia needs is the potential rematch with UNC looming.....
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