Okay, so I'm finally back in my hotel after a long couple of days (let's go ahead and make that weeks, which explains the giant gap in posts). If you remember the first NCST game from earlier this year, the first thing that comes to your mind is likely how they absolutely dominated Virginia on the boards. Well, not surprisingly, I believe that will be what eventually determines the game. If Virginia lets the Pack double them on the boards like last time, they will have an extremely tough time finding a way to win. If they can at least be competitive on the glass, then their chances of victory will dramatically increase.
Earlier today I got a chance to see this NCST team in person as they took down Boston College. Through the anxious enthusiasm of their players, coaches, and fans, NCST made it known that they were not okay with being in the "First Four Out". They wanted to use this weekend to propel them towards earning an NCAA tournament bid. Before this afternoon, my educated guess would say that they were on the outside looking in. While losses by Northwestern and Washington may have indirectly helped their cause, the Wolfpack would have sent themselves to the NIT with a loss to the Eagles, regardless of what happened to other "bubble" teams.
Thanks partially to some poor BC shooting and unforced turnovers but mainly to their energy at the beginning of the game, the Pack started out on fire, claiming a 14-0 early lead. Many in the building, including myself, wondered whether NCST might drop a 40+ point beatdown on the Eagles, sling-shotting all out their momentum into tomorrow's Quarterfinal game vs. UVA. But State cooled down as BC began to heat up. Eventually, NCST was just too much for Steve Donahue's young, undersized, and, quite frankly, underskilled team. I thought this game, as well as what I saw in the tape from the first State-UVa game helped give me some insight as to what Virginia should expect from their opponent tomorrow.
NC State As a Team:
As I mentioned above, I was a bit of afraid of a dominating Wolpack victory, giving them tons of momentum against a UVA team that isn't exactly peaking. Well, while they did win by 21, I don't really think State played well enough today to gain the type of confidence that might make UVA nervous. As well as they played at the beginning and end of the game, they were just as bad in the middle. After being up 14-0 (and later 43-28 with 17 minutes remaining), they allowed BC to cut the lead to 7 with 8 minutes left. I think the Play-by-Play on ESPN best shows how they let the Eagles back into the game: "Clifford layup...Humphrey layup...Jackson layup...Daniels Three Pointer...Anderson Layup...Anderson Layup...Clifford Tip Shot...Anderson Tip Shot...Daniels Layup". NCST just assumed victory and really stopped playing defense.
I think this is key. I have criticized State's defense all year and what I saw today only strengthened my case. It's not that they are poor defenders, but rather none of them seem to have the will to do what it takes to be good to great defenders. They just always seem to be a step late, one rotation over, etc. My point is twofold. First, I still don't really think they will have any sort of an answer for Mike, even with a double team. Secondly, after a full 40 minutes today, I wonder what kind of gas they will have in their tanks to go hard on defense, especially when the possessions will be much longer than usual. I'll go more in depth on this later.
Wolfpack Players:
PG: Lorenzo Brown 6'5- Brown is a tall, athletic point guard who I like to describe as "hot or cold". It seems like half of the things he does drop your jaw in amazement, while the other times he leaves State fans shaking their heads. Today against BC, he was more of the former, but he definitely showed flashes of coldness. I think his biggest problem is tempo. He seems to really struggle with the question of when he should push the ball versus when he should slow it down and set the offense. He only had 3 turnovers today, but you he had a couple other close calls that showed his tempo hesitance. Still, his 8 assists (and 12 pts) show what he brings. He's pretty solid in most of the PG categories offensively: good vision, nice passing touch, runs the offense well, etc. However, I would definitely not consider him a strong defender. While some might worry at the size difference from Jontel (Brown is a good 5-6 inches taller), I think the bigger mismatch is Bub's quickness and ability to get to the rack against Brown's average lateral quickness and defensive abilities. After what Brown said about Mike Scott today, he's on my good side. He's a good player that has potential to be great if he stays all four years. Thankfully, for our sake, he's not quite there yet. I think it will be a great, competitive battle at PG. Should be fun to watch.
SG- C.J. Williams 6'5- After watching Williams live, a comparison came to me. I thought I might have been wrong, but after watching the night games, I'll stick to it. I said to myself that Williams reminded me of a Dorenzo Hudson from about two years ago. That slimmer, quicker version of Hudson and Williams seem to be similar players. Both like to slash with a one or two dribble pull up, both like to be physical, and both have an inconsistent shot. Today, Williams was off. He wasn't much of a factor at all in the outcome in the game. Joe guarded him last game and I expect we will see the same matchup. I still hesitate to expect a certain performance from Joe with his broken hand, but I think he will be fine against Williams. Even though he gives good effort, he seems to be either on the wrong side of screens or just flat out in the wrong position more than most. Depending on how he is playing tomorrow, we might want to switch our matchups and focus on the guy I'm most worried about...............
SF: Scott Wood 6'6- Wood was straight money today (7-11, 5-9 3p, 22 pts). Even his misses looked good. To be fair, BC gave him more good looks than we did last meeting, but he made some tough ones too. If he shoots like that, we might be in for trouble. Initially I wanted Joe of him to match up with his height to put a hand in his face. The more I thought about it, the more I felt we needed someone who could keep up with him as he ran off screens. While I usually don't like Sammy guarding bigger players (cough cough Michael Snaer), I think speed is more important here. I didn't like the Snaer matchup because Snaer is obviously a lot more than just a shooter. Wood will only really beat us with his shot, so hopefully Sammy will be able to keep up with him and make it difficult. Maybe Sammy did just this last game...maybe Wood was just cold, who knows. On the other end, Sammy had no trouble at all shooting over Wood in the first half, but struggled to get a shot off later in the game. I think Virginia is really going to need another big game from him tomorrow.
F C.J. Leslie 6'8-
I still don't really get C.J. Leslie. Like Brown, sometimes he really lives up to that 5 star, lottery pick status, but other times I'm screaming lazy and overrated. He had another one of those games today, a couple of dominant plays along with long stretches of nothingness. Last game Bennett had Akil, Darion, and Joe switching off on him, and I think we'll see more of the same. I think Darion's role in this game will be crucial. Because of the physical presence of Howell (more later) and our limited rotation, there's a good chance Akil or Mike will get in foul trouble. Darion will need to move his feet better in order to be physical with his body, not with his hands. Leslie has just about the same body as him, so in theory, it should be a good matchup. If Atkins can prevent him from grabbing offensive boards/tips, it will really help Virginia's cause as a team. Last game, Gottfried put Leslie on Scott for much of the game. I don't think that really works, but then again, I don't think Howell does either. Scott shouldn't have any trouble getting his.
F Richard Howell 6'8- Last game, Howell grabbed 5 more offensive rebounds than Virginia's entire team, and only 2 fewer total rebounds. If that happens again, it might be a long afternoon for the Wahoos. If the referees allow him to be as physical (a better way to put it would be "if the refs let him grab and shove UVA's post players out of the way") as in the previous game, the game could get ugly quick. However, the BC game might give Virginia fans some hope. Howell, while he snagged a couple of early rebounds, was called for two straight over the back fouls, to the dismay of Pack fans. Those calls seemed to have affected Howell's aggressiveness on the glass. If he continues to play slightly more tentative in fighting for rebounds, Virginia's bigs might have a better chance limiting State's second chance opportunities. Let's be real here; Howell will get his share of rebounds and putbacks.. The combination of his strength and positioning is just too much for Scott, Mitchell, and Atkins to shut down completely. On the defensive side of the ball, Howell is pretty much just average. Obviously, he prefers to be physical and use his body more than he likes to move his feet and play good defense. He won't have a shot at stopping or slowing down Mike Scott when he's checking him. He can probably take care of Mitchell or Atkins, but considering they aren't really a big part of the offense anyways, that doesn't seem like a big deal for Bennett's team. Bottom line: get Howell some early fouls or just send him a message that you're not gonna put up with him shoving guys to get a rebound. I think Virginia's big men will do a better job of this than last game.
Bench:
Given what has happened the past couple of weeks and months, Virginia fans are likely thirsty for some good news or some sort of a break. Well, the good news is that, like Virginia, NCST plays a 7 man rotation. The bad news is that their two guys off of the bench tend to make a much bigger difference in the game. I'm not saying their "better" basketball players than Atkins or Jesperson...it just mainly comes down to the fact that they are a Junior and Senior.
Alex Johnson 5'10- Johnson is a small, but quick guard. In comparison to Brown, he's better at getting deeper into the lane, kind of like Jontel. However, once he gets into the lane, he doesn't really know what to do with the ball. That said, he's an overall good passer and defender with good speed. I would call him a lesser version of Jontel, only with a little more of a jumpshot (but still not that much of one). His handle is questionable, so if Brown is out of the game, Jontel should give him some trouble. Johnson will probably get around 15 minutes, and isn't really likely to change or take over the game, but he's a solid role player.
Deshawn Painter 6'9- Some of you might remember him as a guy who Dave Leitao recruited pretty
hard. Painter is slightly taller and slimmer than Howell, but likes to play a similarly physical type of basketball. He's going to be a third option for defending Mike Scott, if (or when) the other two start to struggle. He has good defensive potential, but probably won't be able to give Mike much trouble. Offensively, he looks pretty darn uncomfortable with the ball in his hands. I wouldn't be surprised if we decided to play risky and put the double team on him some. I'm almost certain that he would cough the ball up. Where Painter is dangerous is on the glass. While his rebounding numbers are not great, he's one of those guys who seems to cause more team rebounds, even if they aren't necessarily going to him (I would describe Assane similarly). He's going to be a fresh body of the bench who's job will be to attack UVA's post players and try to: A) get offensive rebounds; B) Get Virginia in foul trouble. However, I just don't see him being all that successful.
Keys to the Game:
1) Rebound, Rebound, Rebound: If it sounds like I'm beating a dead horse, it's because I'm not quite convinced that this horse is dead yet. If Virginia gets crushed on the boards again, they will probably be going home early. They got lucky last time (most winning teams aren't double up on the glass). Tied into this is the issue of foul trouble. Last game, State got so many early offensive boards and putbacks that Virginia's players became frustrated and committed dumb fouls. This cannot happen with such a limited rotation. You can eliminate a lot of the foul concerns by securing as many rebounds as possible. If UVA does this, it will take away NCST's biggest threat.
2) Attack on Offense: As I mentioned earlier, NCST's defense has always seemed soft to me. First of all, I don't see them stopping Mike Scott. Holding him to anywhere from 15-20 points should be considered a success for the Pack. Anything more, and Mike could be in "put-da-team-on-mah-back" mode. The other real weakness I see in the State defense is against Jontel Evans. Bub has had one hell of a 2nd half of the season. NCST struggled mightily against the dribble penetration of BC's guards. I don't think Bub should have any trouble slicing through the Pack (not Pack Line) defense. Also, they are not very good on ball screens, so a little Mike and Bub action could be very effective. Even if Mike dominates, UVA will have to have another option. I'm not comfortable with predicting Sammy or Joe to go off or catch fire, but I do think Jontel could have a big game.
3) Make State Work for Tough Shots: Virginia needs to prevent two sorts of shots in order to be successful. The first of these is the easy put back from an offensive board. We've talked enough about this, so by now, it should be quite obvious. The other potentially killer shot is an open three for Scott Wood. Virginia has to do a better job on him than BC did today. If he goes off for 22, that's basically a W for NCST. I think Sammy is capable of staying with him and making him take contested shots. That's all Bennett can hope for. Virginia will just have to hope that Wood doesn't hit the tough ones.
This game is going to be a battle. I'd be very surprised if the margin of victory was by more than 5 points. State will be fighting for its postseason life, while Virginia is trying to claim a rare ACC Tournament Semifinal appearance. Virginia won't have a short rotation to blame for this game, as both teams will likely play exactly 7 players each. UVa will have to be better on the glass, stay out of foul trouble, and work through the Wolfpack's vulnerable defense. State will have to try and slow Mike Scott, guard the ball screen, and find a way to score against the Pack Line Defense (as well as hope Wood hits his shots). I still don't really think I'm ready to give a score prediction with this Virginia team. It's just really hard to predict how they will continue to respond. I will say that I expect a great basketball game. Should be a fun one. Check back here Saturday morning for some postgame analysis (and hopefully a Semifinal preview).
Hopefully all the motivation Virginia needs is the potential rematch with UNC looming.....
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