As I sat down to rewatch the game tape before writing this, I took out a sheet of paper to jot down things that stood out. Mainly, I was looking for missed opportunities, silly mistakes, or things we do right 9 times out of 10 that we didn't last night. I needed a second sheet of paper. Most of you all ready know this, but Virginia played uncharacteristically bad last night against arch rival Virginia Tech. Credit Seth Greenberg and to Hokies for their gameplan. They were extremely physical with our guys, especially Mike Scott. They were going to do anything possible to slow him down. Before last night, I thought the only person who could stop Mike Scott was Mike Scott. I continue to believe this, as he had 10 of his team's 45 points, while he missed a couple of open shots he hasn't missed all year. Still, the rotation of guys guarding #23 (including Davila, Barksdale, and Raines), bumped up against him and made him work harder than he has all year. What you heard about Duke being a physically weak team is true. They were unable to do what the Hokies frontcourt was able to. However, I don't really think this was the real reason why Virginia lost this game, and more specifically, looked so anemic on offense. Here are a couple of other reasons:
First of all, we just could not shoot the ball all night long. When I watched the game live, it really seemed like VT's physical defense prevented us from getting reasonably open looks. While for a good bit of the game this was the case, a second look at the tape shows that we missed a lot of shots that we should never, ever miss. Obviously, Sammy continued to struggle shooting the ball. He just has looked like a completely different player over the past couple of games. The worst thing about last night's misses was that he was not only missing shots, not only missing open shots, but he was missing open shots badly. One could understand a shooting night like that in cramped and stuffy Cameron Indoor, but at home? In the first half, Zeglinski missed two wide open looks in rhythm from deep. I cannot overemphasize how open these shots were. In the second half, Sam air-balled an only slightly contested jumper with 30 seconds remaining on the shot clock. The worst part of it was that, while he was kicking himself over the poor shot selection, he failed to get back on defense, giving Erick Green an easy transition layup. Also in the second half, Sammy once again missed two wide open threes that weren't even close. In the end, Zeglinski finished 0-7 from the floor, 0-6 from three in 37 minutes. If he did have a stomach bug or flu as many have said, he should not have played 37 minutes, especially given how uncomfortable he looked out there. In the last 5 minutes, you could see how he completely hit a wall. He was basically a liability on defense in addition to his poor shooting. We all love Sammy, especially Tony, but it was a mistake to have him in that long. I don't mean to be overly harsh on the kid. He is an incredibly hard worker, plays fantastic pack-line defense, and is a great veteran leader. I'm in no ways calling for his role on this team to be decreased. He just had one of those nights (and wasn't helped by how he felt physically). It was unfair of Tony to keep him out there. While last night was bad, Sammy will be back soon enough. We're gonna need him, too.
Now Zeglinski was by no means the only person on the team missing shots. The shots that I jotted down were three Mike Scott midrange jumpers, Jesperson's missed wide open three, Evans's 4 missed layups, Akil's missed putback where he had two chances to finish, Brogdon's two missed wide open threes and our many poorly timed missed free throws. Like I said with Zeglinski's misses, I'm not exaggerating when I say wide open. These aren't shots we should hit 50-60% of the time, rather they're ones we hit 80-90% of the time. On these ones, it wasn't anything that VT's defense did to prevent a bucket. These are basically the basketball equivalent of "unforced errors". We won't beat anyone if we miss easy ones like this. I know it sounds simple, but if you're looking for an answer to the question, "How could this game happen?", it comes down to missing these type of shots. Having rewatched the game, we actually did a much better job offensively at creating good looks (we did an especially good job of using screens in the second half) than I had originally thought, but all of that means nothing if you can't finish the open shots you design your offense to create.
Another thing that hurt us, but on a bit smaller scale, was our poor job taking care of the basketball. While we did force more turnovers than we committed ourselves, 12 turnovers in a 47-45 basketball is just unacceptable. The worse part of that was the nature of some of the turnovers. Joe wasn't paying full attention after a rebound mid-second half as he threw the ball to Green right under the basket for an easy layup for two points. Jontel was careless with his dribble and had the ball taken from him a couple of times. Late in the game, after Sammy missed a wide open Mike Scott posting up down low, kicked it to Harris. Joe fed it to Mike, who dribbled it off of his foot when he should have had an easy layup. Very late in the game, we fed to ball to Scott down in the post. As the double team came, Mike tried to hit Brogdon streaking down the lane and airmailed it over his head. These errors, especially the ones late in the game, are just so costly in a 47-45 game. When you not only lose a possession by giving the ball up, but allow them to score off of it on top, you're doing twice the damage in a game like this.
Finally, defensive breakdowns and mismatches put the dagger in our chances. With Assane out, we had basically two options. The first option was to keep the same scheme, plugging in Mitchell and Atkins into Sene's minutes. The other option was to go with a four guard look, limiting Atkins and Mitchell's minutes. Against a team like Virginia Tech, who has only two natural low post players in Victor Davila and Cadarian Raines, it's difficult to tell which lineup would be more effective. Early on, Tony went with the conventional lineup, with Mitchell and Scott down low. However, it was the matchups that were confusing. For most of the first half, Mitchell was on Jarrell Eddie. Eddie is a 6'7 SF who has a skill-set not too dissimilar from Paul Jesperson. He's a shooter first with very deep range and excellent touch and a slasher second. While Eddie is further developed than Jesperson, his ability with the ball isn't anywhere near fully developed. I wouldn't exactly call him someone who can create his own shot with the ball in his hands. I certainly wouldn't call him a guy who could work with his back to the basket. So this means Akil priority on defense should have been to step out on him to prevent his biggest weapon: the deep three. Akil struggled to stay out on him in the first half. While Eddie bricked his first three, later in the half, he moved without the ball to get away from the slower Akil. Scott switched and picked him up, but it was too late as Eddie knocked down an open three (which built momentum for Tech as they built a 4 point halftime lead). I don't know why we had Akil on Eddie. It would have made much more sense to put Harris on Eddie and Mitchell on Dorian Finney-Smith (a 6'8 long armed athlete who Akil would have matched up much better with). Later in the game, Tony realized this and went to the 4 guard lineup, with Harris on Eddie. If I recall correctly, Eddie did not score again in the game and Harris did a great job preventing him open looks. Greenberg smartly responded by sitting DFS, going with the lineup of Green, Brown, Hudson, Eddie, and a big man (Davila, Raines, or Barksdale). This caused another matchup problem for the Hoos.
The other mismatch was with Dorenzo Hudson. As I stated in my game preview, I was a bit unsure as to who would guard Hudson. At 6'5 220, the only guys one would think to put on him are Harris, Brogdon, or maybe Jesperson. He saw all three, mainly Harris and Brogdon, and for much of the night, he was not much of a factor. However, late in the game, as Harris was busy with Eddie, Bennett put Zeglinski on Hudson instead of Brogdon. As I said above, at about the 5 minute mark, Sammy hit a visible wall, as his illness had fully caught up with him. He had no chance against the much, much bigger and more athletic Hudson. While against Sammy, Hudson's only real success was the terrible blocking call (and yes, that was a terrible call despite what Hubert Davis thinks), Zeglinski was a noticeable weakness on the defense and others had to leave their guys to help him out. Because of this, we put Malcolm on him, where Hudson got away with a pushoff (I'm not necessarily saying we should've gotten the call but considering the terrible blocking call and the pushoff called on MB in the first half, we might have deserved a break there) and made a tough shot. I don't remember who, but someone failed to help Brogdon out there, as he was one on one with Hudson in a good position.
Finally, on Tech's last position, they came out of the timeout with a lineup of Brown, Green, Hudson, Eddie, Davila. Our lineup was Evans, Zeglinski, Harris, Mitchell, and Scott. It looked like this:
Evans on Green
Zeglinski on Brown
Harris on Eddie
Mitchell on Hudson
Scott on Davila
While I understand the Hudson had just beaten us down low the past two possessions, I disagree with Tony's decision to put the bigger bodied Akil on Hudson instead of Harris or Brogdon. In this situation (44-43 VT with under 30 seconds to play, VT ball), you have to realize that if you give up a 3, you essentially lose the game. And while I pointed out that Hudson, aside from his 4-6 performance against UNC, was not a three point specialist, you can't give him (a 5th year senior) a kill shot like that. I think we should have put Brogdon on him (or Harris and have Brogdon on Eddie) and tell the rest of the team to not let him get in deep. Scott could have sagged off of Davila, Zeglinski off of Brown. You gotta imagine that Greenberg saw that Akil was on Hudson, called the timeout, and drew the play up. Otherwise, it more than likely would have been a play for Green against Jontel. I like my chances a whole lot better on that one. The biggest thing that bugs me is that Akil was one of the few guys who didn't guard Hudson all night. I really think we would have had a great chance to stop them if we had someone else on Dorenzo.
But I'm not the Coach, and I trust his decisions. Hudson made a great shot that he hasn't made most of the year. Green hit some tough contested shots along the way too. But still, while VT played great and deserves the victory, our guys are gonna be kicking themselves when they watch this film. We just can take the little things for granted. If we're missing shots like we were, we can afford to turn the ball over like we did. In games like these every possession is so valuable. Now, we get Boston College back in JPJ. I really don't like this game. We are a much better team than they are, but the 9pm start after a tough loss like this one makes me worry about a dull crowd. Hopefully both the fans and our players realize that we cannot, simply cannot lose to BC.
I'll have a quick preview of the young Eagles team sometime this week. Go Hoos!
Monday, January 23, 2012
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Virginia Tech Preview:
Yes, VT is struggling. Yes, we are coming off one of our biggest ACC blowout wins in a long time. Yes, VT has struggled on the road this year. But, I think this game will be different than most imagine. First of all, it's a rivalry game. The pressure will be on our guys to take care of business against the hated Hokies. Over the years it seems like that pressure has increased as our football team still can't find a way to get a win against Tech. So we've been relying on Coach Bennett's team to reclaim our spot as the main basketball program in Virginia. Now, we definitely have the better team this year, but in this rivalry, that has been a sort of curse. Last year, VT was fighting for a tournament bid while were just trying to stay above .500, yet we beat them twice. It might have been those losses that kept the Hokies out of the tournament yet again. Now, we're the team with the bulls-eye square on our backs. Over the years, Greenberg's teams have shown their ability to get up for big games. While they may lose some bad ones (this is probably the real reason why they've ended up in the NIT), they always have some games where they play out of their minds against better teams. I expect tonight will be one of those nights where they look like a completely different team, but will it be enough? Let's look at the matchup breakdown:
PG: Jontel Evans vs. Erick Green- Green, at least to me, might be the most likable Hokie in some time. He has a nearly ideal game for a PG. He can handle the ball, run the offense, play tough defense, and can find a way to score. He may not be great at any one aspect of the game, but he's good at just about everything. It's because of this that he has scored in double figures in 38 of his past 42 games. That is such an impressive statistic. He hasn't had fewer than 11pts all season. He also averages 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal per game and is shooting 48% from the floor, 40% from three. Those are All-ACC numbers if he can keep them up throughout conference play. Now Jontel should be able to slow him down some. With Delaney in the lineup, Evans and Green did not face each other as much as they will the next 4 games. I look for this to be a good matchup, as each player's strength is on the same side of the floor (Bub's defense against Green's offense/scoring). However, I think Green has a slight advantage due to his completeness. I don't expect him to absolutely kill us, but I think he'll get his 10-15 points. It will be interesting to see if Bub can get into the lane like he did against Georgia Tech. Green is a step slower than him, and getting by him could cause the Hokies defense to collapse inside.
SG: Sammy Zeglinski vs. Dorenzo Hudson- This is a rare matchup of two 5th year Seniors going against each other. I'm not completely sure exactly how much we'll see these two actually guarding each other, as they are really different players (especially physically), but it's still technically a "matchup" at SG. Hudson has had a really up and down year. He doesn't really look like the same player that was a consistent scorer for the Hokies two years ago. However, on a good night, he can still put up some points. He really is a streaky shooter at best so the key will be to disrupt his shot. I think we'll more or less give him decent looks from deep and hope he misses them. He's certainly capable of hitting threes; he was 4-6 against UNC and 3-5 against Florida International, but just 9-48 the rest of the year. I think he will struggle against the packline, as most of the shots he likes to score from will be greatly contested. Sammy still hasn't completely broken out of his slump just yet. He did hit a couple of threes against Georgia Tech, but still didn't look like the Sammy we expect to see. I think the sell out crowd will help the shots fall tonight. As far as the defensive matchup, I think we'll see Joe and Malcolm on Hudson for most of the game. I still don't really know who Tech will put on Sammy, but I think Hudson will be there for a bit with maybe Rankin and Brown off of the bench. Overall, I like Sammy today. This slump has to end, and what better opponent than the Hokies to do it against.
SF- Joe Harris vs. Jarrell Eddie- I admit, Eddie is a guy who I was way wrong about. He really improved in a way I didn't think was possible for him. He can really light it up offensively, especially from deep. I still have concerns about his defense, but his size allows him to get away with a bit. This should be a really fun head to head matchup. Joe is having a great season, with only really two bad performances all year. The past two games, he has shot 12-21 with 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and a block. However, he only has one three. Hopefully this will change soon, because as much as I love Joe expanding his game and getting more shots in the lane, I don't want that three ball to disappear. Eddie scares me against the pack-line because he can really stroke it from the outside. He had 4 threes against UNC. We need to find a way to at least make his shots somewhat contested. If he has a hot night, we could be in trouble. Still, in this matchup of 2nd year players, Joe is more mature and complete, so I'll give him the advantage.
Now with Sene out with a broken ankle, we will play with two forwards in the post as opposed to a PF and a C. This is my guess as to how we handle the matchups: Scott vs. Davila and Mitchell/Atkins vs. Finney-Smith/Raines/Barksdale. Now I wonder if Seth will try and go big with a lineup like: Green, Eddie, DFS, Raines/Barksdale, Davila (or something like that). If that happens, I think we'll be okay. Evans/Zeglinski can guard Green, Brogdon/Jesperson/Harris can guard Eddie, Harris/Brogdon/Atkins/Mitchell can guard DFS (ideally Harris), Mitchell/Atkins can guard Raines/Barksdale (Joe could even guard Barksdale, too), and Scott on Davila. Basically, we have options. VT is a good team to play right after Sene's injury because we match up well with them at most positions. They're not gonna overpower us down low, even if they play three bigs, so this is a good game to get a feel for how our rotation works without Assane. Anyways, here's my best guess at post matchups:
F- Mike Scott vs. Victor Davila- We'll see Raines and maybe Barksdale as well (and probably plenty of double teams), but I think it will mostly be Davila checking Scott. Saying Mike has dominated the Hokies is an understatement. In the past three games, he has had 21, 21 and 20 points. Overall against the Hokies, he is averaging 17.6ppg and 8.8 rebounds/game. And all of those games were against better VT frontcourts. Plus, as we all know, Mike is a different player this year. I just don't see anyone on the VT roster being able to slow him down. I think he'll either have a big day or VT will double/triple team him, giving others open shots. Pick your poison. What VT really has to worry about is his rebounding. They are not a great rebounding team, so they will struggle to keep our guys, especially Scott, off of the boards. If we have a ~20 rebound advantage like we did against Georgia Tech, this game will not be close. Davila is a decent defender and has the occasional slam, but he won't be a factor. I doubt we'll even use the double team against him, but if we do, he'll turn the ball over plenty.
F- Akil Mitchell/Darion Atkins vs. Dorian Finney-Smith- I think Mitchell will get the start because of his experience and consistency, but Atkins is a pretty good matchup for "Do-Do". While DFS hasn't really looked like a 5 star recruit, especially on the offensive end, he does have the ability to do the little things well, such as rebounds, blocks, and assists. A lot of the reason he has done well with these is because of his body type. He uses his length to create mismatches against other SF's. He won't have much of an advantage against Darion, or even Akil. DFS certainly has more ability to score than either of them, but he has a tendency to become frustrated and disappear from the score sheet against aggressive defense. Most of his big scoring nights this year came against lower level competition who probably didn't have anyone to match up with his size, length, and athleticism. He probably hasn't face a guy like Darion all year, so it'll be interesting to see if he can find a way to score when he doesn't really have the physical edge. Because there's so much unknown in this matchup (three very young players make this happen), I'll call it a push. One key is that Mitchell and Atkins must start to learn to stay out of foul trouble. Without Assane, we have virtually no depth in the post.
Bench: Neither team gets all that much help, at least in terms of scoring help, from the bench. With Assane out, that means Mitchell will likely start. This leaves us with just three scholarship players on the bench in Atkins, Brogdon, and Jesperson. VT isn't in much better shape. They have just 4 guys in Robert Brown, Cadarian Raines, CJ Barksdale, and Marquis Rankin. I really like Brown's game. He's a combo guard who is good with the ball, very quick, and can knock down shots as well. He'll be the first off of the bench and the most likely to contribute (8ppg). He's sort of like our Malcolm, although their games are different. Other than Brown, VT won't get much from their bench. Raines is essentially just a body down low. Barksdale has some "Jeff Allen" type game, but is pretty raw so far. Rankin is a guard who I doubt we see all that much of tonight. I'm calling the bench a push because of our situation in the post. We know that both Mitchell and Atkins will play often, so they will likely impact the game greatly.
Overall, while I like UVA to win at home against the Hokies, I know that VT will show up to play. I can still see us having a convincing win, but I think it comes down to Greenberg's gameplan and our shooting. I really think Seth knows that this is an important game for his future in Blacksburg. If he hasn't already, he's dangerously close to losing his team. After this game, they get BYU at home, go to the Comcast Center to take on Maryland, and then host Duke. Basically, an ugly loss tonight won't exactly help the team's confidence in the middle of this tough stretch. If they start 0-7 in conference, I think there will be even more chaos. Greenberg knows that because of our style of play, our lack of depth due to Sene's injury, and the ability to motivate his team in this rivalry game that this might be the chance to get an upset win to turn the tide of negative momentum that came with starting 0-4 in the ACC. Still, Tony is well aware of this, so I think he'll have our guys ready. Mike will be too much for Tech in the post. If he gets any sort of help, you can expect a win. Plus, this should be one of the best JPJ atmosphere's in a long time. This was the hardest student ticket to get in my two years here. People just love to watch the Hokies squirm and struggle, I guess. :)
64-51 UVA
PG: Jontel Evans vs. Erick Green- Green, at least to me, might be the most likable Hokie in some time. He has a nearly ideal game for a PG. He can handle the ball, run the offense, play tough defense, and can find a way to score. He may not be great at any one aspect of the game, but he's good at just about everything. It's because of this that he has scored in double figures in 38 of his past 42 games. That is such an impressive statistic. He hasn't had fewer than 11pts all season. He also averages 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal per game and is shooting 48% from the floor, 40% from three. Those are All-ACC numbers if he can keep them up throughout conference play. Now Jontel should be able to slow him down some. With Delaney in the lineup, Evans and Green did not face each other as much as they will the next 4 games. I look for this to be a good matchup, as each player's strength is on the same side of the floor (Bub's defense against Green's offense/scoring). However, I think Green has a slight advantage due to his completeness. I don't expect him to absolutely kill us, but I think he'll get his 10-15 points. It will be interesting to see if Bub can get into the lane like he did against Georgia Tech. Green is a step slower than him, and getting by him could cause the Hokies defense to collapse inside.
SG: Sammy Zeglinski vs. Dorenzo Hudson- This is a rare matchup of two 5th year Seniors going against each other. I'm not completely sure exactly how much we'll see these two actually guarding each other, as they are really different players (especially physically), but it's still technically a "matchup" at SG. Hudson has had a really up and down year. He doesn't really look like the same player that was a consistent scorer for the Hokies two years ago. However, on a good night, he can still put up some points. He really is a streaky shooter at best so the key will be to disrupt his shot. I think we'll more or less give him decent looks from deep and hope he misses them. He's certainly capable of hitting threes; he was 4-6 against UNC and 3-5 against Florida International, but just 9-48 the rest of the year. I think he will struggle against the packline, as most of the shots he likes to score from will be greatly contested. Sammy still hasn't completely broken out of his slump just yet. He did hit a couple of threes against Georgia Tech, but still didn't look like the Sammy we expect to see. I think the sell out crowd will help the shots fall tonight. As far as the defensive matchup, I think we'll see Joe and Malcolm on Hudson for most of the game. I still don't really know who Tech will put on Sammy, but I think Hudson will be there for a bit with maybe Rankin and Brown off of the bench. Overall, I like Sammy today. This slump has to end, and what better opponent than the Hokies to do it against.
SF- Joe Harris vs. Jarrell Eddie- I admit, Eddie is a guy who I was way wrong about. He really improved in a way I didn't think was possible for him. He can really light it up offensively, especially from deep. I still have concerns about his defense, but his size allows him to get away with a bit. This should be a really fun head to head matchup. Joe is having a great season, with only really two bad performances all year. The past two games, he has shot 12-21 with 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and a block. However, he only has one three. Hopefully this will change soon, because as much as I love Joe expanding his game and getting more shots in the lane, I don't want that three ball to disappear. Eddie scares me against the pack-line because he can really stroke it from the outside. He had 4 threes against UNC. We need to find a way to at least make his shots somewhat contested. If he has a hot night, we could be in trouble. Still, in this matchup of 2nd year players, Joe is more mature and complete, so I'll give him the advantage.
Now with Sene out with a broken ankle, we will play with two forwards in the post as opposed to a PF and a C. This is my guess as to how we handle the matchups: Scott vs. Davila and Mitchell/Atkins vs. Finney-Smith/Raines/Barksdale. Now I wonder if Seth will try and go big with a lineup like: Green, Eddie, DFS, Raines/Barksdale, Davila (or something like that). If that happens, I think we'll be okay. Evans/Zeglinski can guard Green, Brogdon/Jesperson/Harris can guard Eddie, Harris/Brogdon/Atkins/Mitchell can guard DFS (ideally Harris), Mitchell/Atkins can guard Raines/Barksdale (Joe could even guard Barksdale, too), and Scott on Davila. Basically, we have options. VT is a good team to play right after Sene's injury because we match up well with them at most positions. They're not gonna overpower us down low, even if they play three bigs, so this is a good game to get a feel for how our rotation works without Assane. Anyways, here's my best guess at post matchups:
F- Mike Scott vs. Victor Davila- We'll see Raines and maybe Barksdale as well (and probably plenty of double teams), but I think it will mostly be Davila checking Scott. Saying Mike has dominated the Hokies is an understatement. In the past three games, he has had 21, 21 and 20 points. Overall against the Hokies, he is averaging 17.6ppg and 8.8 rebounds/game. And all of those games were against better VT frontcourts. Plus, as we all know, Mike is a different player this year. I just don't see anyone on the VT roster being able to slow him down. I think he'll either have a big day or VT will double/triple team him, giving others open shots. Pick your poison. What VT really has to worry about is his rebounding. They are not a great rebounding team, so they will struggle to keep our guys, especially Scott, off of the boards. If we have a ~20 rebound advantage like we did against Georgia Tech, this game will not be close. Davila is a decent defender and has the occasional slam, but he won't be a factor. I doubt we'll even use the double team against him, but if we do, he'll turn the ball over plenty.
F- Akil Mitchell/Darion Atkins vs. Dorian Finney-Smith- I think Mitchell will get the start because of his experience and consistency, but Atkins is a pretty good matchup for "Do-Do". While DFS hasn't really looked like a 5 star recruit, especially on the offensive end, he does have the ability to do the little things well, such as rebounds, blocks, and assists. A lot of the reason he has done well with these is because of his body type. He uses his length to create mismatches against other SF's. He won't have much of an advantage against Darion, or even Akil. DFS certainly has more ability to score than either of them, but he has a tendency to become frustrated and disappear from the score sheet against aggressive defense. Most of his big scoring nights this year came against lower level competition who probably didn't have anyone to match up with his size, length, and athleticism. He probably hasn't face a guy like Darion all year, so it'll be interesting to see if he can find a way to score when he doesn't really have the physical edge. Because there's so much unknown in this matchup (three very young players make this happen), I'll call it a push. One key is that Mitchell and Atkins must start to learn to stay out of foul trouble. Without Assane, we have virtually no depth in the post.
Bench: Neither team gets all that much help, at least in terms of scoring help, from the bench. With Assane out, that means Mitchell will likely start. This leaves us with just three scholarship players on the bench in Atkins, Brogdon, and Jesperson. VT isn't in much better shape. They have just 4 guys in Robert Brown, Cadarian Raines, CJ Barksdale, and Marquis Rankin. I really like Brown's game. He's a combo guard who is good with the ball, very quick, and can knock down shots as well. He'll be the first off of the bench and the most likely to contribute (8ppg). He's sort of like our Malcolm, although their games are different. Other than Brown, VT won't get much from their bench. Raines is essentially just a body down low. Barksdale has some "Jeff Allen" type game, but is pretty raw so far. Rankin is a guard who I doubt we see all that much of tonight. I'm calling the bench a push because of our situation in the post. We know that both Mitchell and Atkins will play often, so they will likely impact the game greatly.
Overall, while I like UVA to win at home against the Hokies, I know that VT will show up to play. I can still see us having a convincing win, but I think it comes down to Greenberg's gameplan and our shooting. I really think Seth knows that this is an important game for his future in Blacksburg. If he hasn't already, he's dangerously close to losing his team. After this game, they get BYU at home, go to the Comcast Center to take on Maryland, and then host Duke. Basically, an ugly loss tonight won't exactly help the team's confidence in the middle of this tough stretch. If they start 0-7 in conference, I think there will be even more chaos. Greenberg knows that because of our style of play, our lack of depth due to Sene's injury, and the ability to motivate his team in this rivalry game that this might be the chance to get an upset win to turn the tide of negative momentum that came with starting 0-4 in the ACC. Still, Tony is well aware of this, so I think he'll have our guys ready. Mike will be too much for Tech in the post. If he gets any sort of help, you can expect a win. Plus, this should be one of the best JPJ atmosphere's in a long time. This was the hardest student ticket to get in my two years here. People just love to watch the Hokies squirm and struggle, I guess. :)
64-51 UVA
Friday, January 20, 2012
Georgia Tech Game Analysis
I'll start by saying that I did not expect this game at all. Sure, I knew that we could make the score ugly if we played great D and hit plenty of shots from deep. But I didn't expect us to shoot 48% with only 5 threes and win by such a large margin. One of the reasons for this was that Georgia Tech played really, really poorly. Yes our defense frustrated them, but they really caused a lot of their own problems on offense.
What to like:
-Rebounding: The stat that sticks out the most when you look as the box score, aside from GT's miserable 6% from deep, is the whopping 41 to 22 advantage in rebounding for UVA. This isn't that surprising, as Georgia Tech is pretty weak down low, but such a large margin shows we clearly out-hustled them. With Assane only playing 13 minutes as he injured his ankle (more on this later), such a domination on the boards is impressive. The fact is, we are generally a very good rebounding team. This will help greatly down the road.
-UVA's "Big 2": Mike Scott and Joe Harris. Everyone knows about Mike Scott now, but Harris is really having a fantastic year as well. After a slow start, Scott really heated up. Per usual, he had his silky mid-range jumper going. He finished with 18pts on 7-13 from the field with 7 boards and 2 assists. Harris had one of his best overall and most efficient performances in his short career here. He had 16pts on 7-10 shooting with one 3pt basket, 5 boards, 3 assists, and a block. He really used his dribble well and got deep inside the arc. If he can get shots like he got last night, he will be a consistent 15-20 point scorer. They didn't really give him any room to knock them down from deep, so Joe showed his ability to beat the defense with penetration, a skill he didn't really have last year.
-Again, the young guys: Obviously Joe had another good game, but I don't really treat him as young, because he plays so much, but Akil, Darion, Paul, and Malcolm continue to impress. Akil and Darion were as active as ever. Mitchell tallied 4pts and 7 boards in 22 minutes. Darion had 4pts (including a Sportscenter Top 10 dunk off of his own steal), 2 boards, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 2 blocks in 17 minutes. If Assane's injury is serious, they are going to see their time skyrocket, and I think they're both ready for the challenge (although that would cause a depth issue; more below). Paul continues to look more and more comfortable out there (one could even argue he looks more comfortable than KT did at times this year). I really think as he gains experience, he'll put the pieces of his game together and make himself a really tough guy to guard. Also, his defense has been a pleasant surprise. He doesn't look too lost in the difficult pack line scheme. Obviously, we know what Malcolm can do. He hasn't exactly been lighting it up like he did earlier in the year, but I'm not worried. Even when he's not scoring, he does the little things that help the team succeed.
What not to like:
-Assane's Injury: We still don't know the extent of the injury, but judging on his recent tweet, it doesn't look good. If he does miss an extended period of time, we could have some depth issues in the post. Now, I had been calling for Mitchell and Atkins' time to increase at the expense of Sene, but that doesn't mean we wouldn't miss him. While he has been struggling lately, he is still a veteran who can be a presence in the paint. It will be interesting to see how our talented yet young guys do in this situation. I think they're ready for it, but they are going to have to grow up fast, because we will not be able to afford them to lag behind. There will be no others behind them.
-Shooting: While at times we looked lights out, I still think we have a lot more in our tank when it comes to shooting. Sammy looked like his demons were still bothering him early, but then recovered later in the game. Still, he doesn't look like the Sam we're used to. GT tried hard to prevent Joe from beating them from deep, but I really want to see Joe get more looks from 3. Last year, that was all of his game. While it's awesome that he has developed other parts of his game, I don't want that aspect to go away completely. Paul hit two nice threes, but also missed badly twice. I think that's just him still working on getting the rhythm down. He can stroke it; he'll get there in time. Finally, Malcolm's shot hasn't been what it was earlier in the year. If we can get all of these guys shooting up to their potential, then we can really become an even more dominant and balanced team.
What to like:
-Rebounding: The stat that sticks out the most when you look as the box score, aside from GT's miserable 6% from deep, is the whopping 41 to 22 advantage in rebounding for UVA. This isn't that surprising, as Georgia Tech is pretty weak down low, but such a large margin shows we clearly out-hustled them. With Assane only playing 13 minutes as he injured his ankle (more on this later), such a domination on the boards is impressive. The fact is, we are generally a very good rebounding team. This will help greatly down the road.
-UVA's "Big 2": Mike Scott and Joe Harris. Everyone knows about Mike Scott now, but Harris is really having a fantastic year as well. After a slow start, Scott really heated up. Per usual, he had his silky mid-range jumper going. He finished with 18pts on 7-13 from the field with 7 boards and 2 assists. Harris had one of his best overall and most efficient performances in his short career here. He had 16pts on 7-10 shooting with one 3pt basket, 5 boards, 3 assists, and a block. He really used his dribble well and got deep inside the arc. If he can get shots like he got last night, he will be a consistent 15-20 point scorer. They didn't really give him any room to knock them down from deep, so Joe showed his ability to beat the defense with penetration, a skill he didn't really have last year.
-Again, the young guys: Obviously Joe had another good game, but I don't really treat him as young, because he plays so much, but Akil, Darion, Paul, and Malcolm continue to impress. Akil and Darion were as active as ever. Mitchell tallied 4pts and 7 boards in 22 minutes. Darion had 4pts (including a Sportscenter Top 10 dunk off of his own steal), 2 boards, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 2 blocks in 17 minutes. If Assane's injury is serious, they are going to see their time skyrocket, and I think they're both ready for the challenge (although that would cause a depth issue; more below). Paul continues to look more and more comfortable out there (one could even argue he looks more comfortable than KT did at times this year). I really think as he gains experience, he'll put the pieces of his game together and make himself a really tough guy to guard. Also, his defense has been a pleasant surprise. He doesn't look too lost in the difficult pack line scheme. Obviously, we know what Malcolm can do. He hasn't exactly been lighting it up like he did earlier in the year, but I'm not worried. Even when he's not scoring, he does the little things that help the team succeed.
What not to like:
-Assane's Injury: We still don't know the extent of the injury, but judging on his recent tweet, it doesn't look good. If he does miss an extended period of time, we could have some depth issues in the post. Now, I had been calling for Mitchell and Atkins' time to increase at the expense of Sene, but that doesn't mean we wouldn't miss him. While he has been struggling lately, he is still a veteran who can be a presence in the paint. It will be interesting to see how our talented yet young guys do in this situation. I think they're ready for it, but they are going to have to grow up fast, because we will not be able to afford them to lag behind. There will be no others behind them.
-Shooting: While at times we looked lights out, I still think we have a lot more in our tank when it comes to shooting. Sammy looked like his demons were still bothering him early, but then recovered later in the game. Still, he doesn't look like the Sam we're used to. GT tried hard to prevent Joe from beating them from deep, but I really want to see Joe get more looks from 3. Last year, that was all of his game. While it's awesome that he has developed other parts of his game, I don't want that aspect to go away completely. Paul hit two nice threes, but also missed badly twice. I think that's just him still working on getting the rhythm down. He can stroke it; he'll get there in time. Finally, Malcolm's shot hasn't been what it was earlier in the year. If we can get all of these guys shooting up to their potential, then we can really become an even more dominant and balanced team.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Game 17: Georgia Tech Preview
Okay so after a tough yet encouraging loss to the Blue Devils in Cameron, we're back in action at the Phillips arena in Atlanta to take on Georgia Tech. Now under Tony Bennett, Virginia is 4-0 against the Yellow Jackets. However, this record is slightly misleading, as those four games came against former GT and current George Mason coach, Paul Hewitt. Nevertheless, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this game. First, let's start with the matchups.
PG: Jontel Evans vs. Mfon Udofia- Jontel guarded Udofia for much of the two games and basically held him in check, only allowing 8 pts on 3-9 shooting (2-4 3pt) in 39 minutes. Evans tallied up 12 pts on 3-10 shooting, but had 12 assists and 4 steals in the two games. This is a good matchup, as both players are very quick and athletic. Udofia tends to become frustrated and disappear on occasion. While I still think he has the ability to light it up on a good night, I don't think he does well when he's called upon to be the team's major scoring threat. I think Jontel will do a good job keeping him under control. He may beat us for a couple of deep threes, but I don't see him taking over the game like Durand Scott was able to at times against Bub. Plus, Evans is a more complete player who can help his team win by having a good game that doesn't necessarily include scoring a bunch of points. I think Jontel has the slight edge in this matchup.
SG: Sammy Zeglinski vs. Jason Morris- Obviously, if Sammy plays like he did against Duke or Miami, he won't win many of these matchups. But I think Georgia Tech provides him a great opportunity to break out of is slump. He will mainly be matched up against Sophomore Guard Jason Morris. Morris, who has improved greatly this year, will surprise some. He looks to be pretty slow (I don't think Bub or Sammy will have any problem beating him off the dribble), but he has sneaky athleticism. On occasion, he'll finish with a nice slam. We might see Joe, Malcolm, or Paul on him as well, but I think most of those minutes will go to Sammy. Morris can beat teams from deep, but other than that he isn't all that scary. He has a bit of a midrange game, but doesn't seem to know how to use it. I remember being pretty unimpressed with him last year (he was a guy we had been recruiting). So if the real Sammy shows up, he should be able to play well (and score plenty) against him. We shall see.
SF: Joe Harris vs. Glen Rice Jr.- This is probably the most critical/interesting matchup of the game. Rice is beginning to replace Udofia their main scoring option, but he seems to be just as inconsistent, if not more so. He dropped 28 against Duke, 22 against NCST, 23 against Siena, and against VCU. But, he had 0 at Fordham, 5 against Bama, and 6 at Maryland. Just by looking at his stats, he seems streaky. I think that bodes well for us because most of the teams he lit up aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. I like Joe on him for much of the game, but I definitely expect to see Malcolm guard him a good bit. Rice's game is not all that dissimilar from Brogdon's, so I think that would be a neat matchup. If Rice is really hot, like he was against Duke and NCST, he can give us trouble. But if he disappears, like against Maryland and Bama, we should be able to shut him down. I really like Joe to have a big night. It seems like Gregory is really struggling to get Hewitt's old guys to play defense. Watching them play, they give up a lot of easy looks, especially from deep. Joe should be able to take advantage of this as he did last year (6 threes for 22 pts in two games).
PF: Mike Scott vs. Kameron Holsey- Having watched Mike tear apart Duke, I'm convinced that the only person who can stop Mike Scott is Mike Scott. Obviously, he's gonna have an off game sometime, but I just don't think it's going to happen tonight. The Jackets are very weak inside. Holsey can make the easy ones, but doesn't have all that complete of a game. He might get a couple putbacks, but not much else. Where I think he'll really struggle is on defense. I really don't think Holsey and the rest of the GT frontcourt possess either the ability or the effort necessary to slow Mike down. I think if Mike stays hot, it'll open the court up for the rest of the team, allowing the game to get ugly.
C: Assane Sene vs. Daniel Miller- This was actually a pretty fun matchup last year. Two raw big men who are just glad to be out on the court and play hard all game. Miller definitely has some potential. I think both bigs will have pretty decent games, but I don't expect either to really impact the outcome unless they play out of their minds. Assane played very well against GT; maybe he can get back on track against them this year.
Bench: This is a tough one. GT is definitely deeper in terms of their rotation, but I am really starting to love our guys off of the bench. The frosh lineup with Paul, Malcolm, and Darion has been doing really well lately. Plus, Akil played one of his most efficient games yet in Cameron. I'll call the matchup a push, but I think our reserves are a lot better than theirs, even if they have more of them.
So as you can see, I like Virginia's chances in this game. However, I still can convince myself to predict a solid, convincing victory. We're definitely the better team, but GT has been playing a little better lately, especially at home. Also, there's a lot of pressure on us, as UNC got exposed in Tallahassee, other ACC teams, like the Jackets, are more confident when hosting the big boys. Still, we have done better than most on the road this year, so I think we'll be ready for the challenge, even if we face some adversity (which I think we will). I will call a 64-58 win for the Hoos.
PG: Jontel Evans vs. Mfon Udofia- Jontel guarded Udofia for much of the two games and basically held him in check, only allowing 8 pts on 3-9 shooting (2-4 3pt) in 39 minutes. Evans tallied up 12 pts on 3-10 shooting, but had 12 assists and 4 steals in the two games. This is a good matchup, as both players are very quick and athletic. Udofia tends to become frustrated and disappear on occasion. While I still think he has the ability to light it up on a good night, I don't think he does well when he's called upon to be the team's major scoring threat. I think Jontel will do a good job keeping him under control. He may beat us for a couple of deep threes, but I don't see him taking over the game like Durand Scott was able to at times against Bub. Plus, Evans is a more complete player who can help his team win by having a good game that doesn't necessarily include scoring a bunch of points. I think Jontel has the slight edge in this matchup.
SG: Sammy Zeglinski vs. Jason Morris- Obviously, if Sammy plays like he did against Duke or Miami, he won't win many of these matchups. But I think Georgia Tech provides him a great opportunity to break out of is slump. He will mainly be matched up against Sophomore Guard Jason Morris. Morris, who has improved greatly this year, will surprise some. He looks to be pretty slow (I don't think Bub or Sammy will have any problem beating him off the dribble), but he has sneaky athleticism. On occasion, he'll finish with a nice slam. We might see Joe, Malcolm, or Paul on him as well, but I think most of those minutes will go to Sammy. Morris can beat teams from deep, but other than that he isn't all that scary. He has a bit of a midrange game, but doesn't seem to know how to use it. I remember being pretty unimpressed with him last year (he was a guy we had been recruiting). So if the real Sammy shows up, he should be able to play well (and score plenty) against him. We shall see.
SF: Joe Harris vs. Glen Rice Jr.- This is probably the most critical/interesting matchup of the game. Rice is beginning to replace Udofia their main scoring option, but he seems to be just as inconsistent, if not more so. He dropped 28 against Duke, 22 against NCST, 23 against Siena, and against VCU. But, he had 0 at Fordham, 5 against Bama, and 6 at Maryland. Just by looking at his stats, he seems streaky. I think that bodes well for us because most of the teams he lit up aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. I like Joe on him for much of the game, but I definitely expect to see Malcolm guard him a good bit. Rice's game is not all that dissimilar from Brogdon's, so I think that would be a neat matchup. If Rice is really hot, like he was against Duke and NCST, he can give us trouble. But if he disappears, like against Maryland and Bama, we should be able to shut him down. I really like Joe to have a big night. It seems like Gregory is really struggling to get Hewitt's old guys to play defense. Watching them play, they give up a lot of easy looks, especially from deep. Joe should be able to take advantage of this as he did last year (6 threes for 22 pts in two games).
PF: Mike Scott vs. Kameron Holsey- Having watched Mike tear apart Duke, I'm convinced that the only person who can stop Mike Scott is Mike Scott. Obviously, he's gonna have an off game sometime, but I just don't think it's going to happen tonight. The Jackets are very weak inside. Holsey can make the easy ones, but doesn't have all that complete of a game. He might get a couple putbacks, but not much else. Where I think he'll really struggle is on defense. I really don't think Holsey and the rest of the GT frontcourt possess either the ability or the effort necessary to slow Mike down. I think if Mike stays hot, it'll open the court up for the rest of the team, allowing the game to get ugly.
C: Assane Sene vs. Daniel Miller- This was actually a pretty fun matchup last year. Two raw big men who are just glad to be out on the court and play hard all game. Miller definitely has some potential. I think both bigs will have pretty decent games, but I don't expect either to really impact the outcome unless they play out of their minds. Assane played very well against GT; maybe he can get back on track against them this year.
Bench: This is a tough one. GT is definitely deeper in terms of their rotation, but I am really starting to love our guys off of the bench. The frosh lineup with Paul, Malcolm, and Darion has been doing really well lately. Plus, Akil played one of his most efficient games yet in Cameron. I'll call the matchup a push, but I think our reserves are a lot better than theirs, even if they have more of them.
So as you can see, I like Virginia's chances in this game. However, I still can convince myself to predict a solid, convincing victory. We're definitely the better team, but GT has been playing a little better lately, especially at home. Also, there's a lot of pressure on us, as UNC got exposed in Tallahassee, other ACC teams, like the Jackets, are more confident when hosting the big boys. Still, we have done better than most on the road this year, so I think we'll be ready for the challenge, even if we face some adversity (which I think we will). I will call a 64-58 win for the Hoos.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Game 16: Duke Preview
Here we are. Probably the biggest UVA basketball game since 2007 (arguably even earlier than that). Duke has won 74 straight games in Cameron Indoor Stadium to teams not named UNC. Its going to be a tough task. However, Virginia is 14-1, on a 12 game win streak, and ranked #16/17 in the country. At first glimpse, it looks like the game should be very, very close. If you look back to one of my previous posts, you'll see that, under Bennett, UVA has actually played pretty well against Duke given the circumstances. In all four games, Bennett had to try and knock of the Blue Devils without his best player. This time, Virginia is fully healthy and primed to give Duke its best shot.
Lineup:
PG: Cook/Thornton vs. Evans. Point Guard has been a big question for the Blue Devils this year. With the departure of Kyrie Irving after just over ten games in his Duke career, the Devils had to work to find a new PG to run their offense. Last season, Tyler Thornton was given an audition and did pretty well. This year, Quinn Cook is getting his shot. He too has shown Coach K that he is capable of handling that role. However, both Cook and Thornton together only average just over 30 minutes per game. That tells me that when push comes to shove, Coach K is willing to sacrifice having a true PG on the court in order to put more experienced players out there. During these stretches, Duke will have Curry or Rivers act as stand in PGs. I think this could be an area Virginia could exploit. Out of those four guards, Cook is the only one who plays any sort of defense. I think these are good times to get Brogdon on the court running the offense. With Malcolm running the point, Sammy and Joe can be the other guards, with Mike and Assane/Akil/Darion down low. This is potentially out best scoring offense. It will be hard for Duke's young defense to prevent Zeglinski and Harris from getting open looks, while dealing with Mike down low, while at the same time worrying about Malcolm at point. I definitely expect this lineup when Cook and Thornton are not in. Anyways, I think Jontel gives us an advantage at PG with his experience and speed. When anyone other than Cook is on him, Bub will have no problem getting to the basket to either finish or dish. I expect Jontel to have a very good game on both ends tonight.
SG: Curry vs. Zeglinski. I think this matchup will be the most important of the game. These two are pretty similar players. Curry is better at getting open looks through either creating his own shot or his ability to use screens, while Sammy is more of a PG and a much better defender. I'd be willing to wager that whoever has the better game of these two will be on the winning team. Sammy struggled last week but hopefully he can rebound tonight. Duke's defense (especially Curry's) will give him plenty of open looks. I also think Sammy can beat Seth off the dribble and get into the paint. This usually leaves Joe open in the corner/wing. However, from all the tape I've watched on Curry, no matter the opponent, he seems to get his fair share of open looks. So I'm going to give him the slight edge, although he is going to have to step up on the defensive end.
SF: Rivers vs. Harris. This is a very interesting matchup. On paper, Rivers should dominate. But I don't expect that to be the case at all. I don't expect Rivers to be a big factor in the game, even if he scores a good number of points. He has shown this year that he can be an immature and selfish player with the ball. Hopefully, the pack line will drive him crazy, as he won't be able to drive to the basket. An experienced Rivers would realize this, and look to kick out every time he drives, but instead, I expect Austin to become frustrated and try to force up shots. The one thing that really worries me about him is his ability to get to the line. Now I don't know how much of it is him being good at drawing fouls and how much is Austin Rivers getting calls, but he goes to the line a lot. Exactly half of his points this year have come from either the FT line or from three. If Joe gets in foul trouble against him, we'll be in trouble. But if the refs call a fair game, I think Joe is prepared to match up with him. I don't expect the refs to call a fair game so I'm giving Rivers the edge.
PF: Kelly vs. Scott- Now I imagine Plumlee will be the one guarding Mike so this one really isn't a matchup, but either way, Mike will have the edge over whoever is guarding him. I think Duke is really vulnerable defensively in the paint, so I assume they'll have a lot of trouble with Mike. As long as nothing flukey happens, like Mike isn't hitting the midrange shots or he gets in foul trouble, I expect a pretty big night from him. Defensively, Kelly will be a tough matchup, but this year's slimmer, more athletic Mike Scott is quick enough to stay with him. We just have to prevent Kelly from catching fire, because that could really screw up our defensive strategy.
C: Plumlee vs. Sene- I just haven't gotten the sense that Mason Plumlee has improved all that much in his career. Still, he'll have an advantage against Sene, but I don't expect him to have a big game. Assane's focus has to be 100% defense and rebounding. If we're in a position where we need Assane's offense, we're not going to be in the game. So we need him to prevent Plumlee from having a big day on the boards. Plumlee (as well as his brother and Kelly) will shoot the midrange shot if we give it to them; we can't afford for Sene to leave that shot open. Also, Zu had a good game in Cameron last year with a good number of offensive boards. That would be incredibly helpful if he could do that again. Still, Mason is definitely a better overall player.
Bench: Both teams play a small ~8 man rotation. Virginia will see Brogdon, Mitchell, Atkins, and Jesperson off of the bench, while Duke has Dawkins, Thornton, Plumlee, Hairston, and Gbinije. I do not expect Jesperson, Hairston, or Gbinije to make any sort of impact or even see all that much time. The difference between the two benches is that Dawkins, Thornton, and Plumlee will definitely see a good chunk of time. Obviously, Brogdon will play plenty for Virginia, but outside of that the amount that Mitchell and Atkins play depends on the game. Duke has the advantage off of the bench, but I wouldn't exactly call them a terribly deep team.
Overall: This is a tough matchup for us, especially in Cameron Indoor. If Duke hits their shots, they are most likely going to win this game. However, Virginia's defense is something that their young guys haven't seen, and will likely give them trouble. I don't expect Duke to run away with the game. I think it will pretty much be up for grabs for just about the entire game. We need to to a better job of getting to the line and hitting free throws, but that may be a tough task in this environment. I like Virginia's chances in this game a lot more than most, but I'm definitely not going to predict a win at Duke. The online simulation did over 200 games and came out with both teams even at 62. I'll go ahead and say that Duke wins 66-59.
*I will leave you with one side note. In games like these, there's seems to be some sort of intangible advantage to the team with the best player. Mike Scott will be the best player on the court tonight. Just how much will that be worth? We'll find out.
Lineup:
PG: Cook/Thornton vs. Evans. Point Guard has been a big question for the Blue Devils this year. With the departure of Kyrie Irving after just over ten games in his Duke career, the Devils had to work to find a new PG to run their offense. Last season, Tyler Thornton was given an audition and did pretty well. This year, Quinn Cook is getting his shot. He too has shown Coach K that he is capable of handling that role. However, both Cook and Thornton together only average just over 30 minutes per game. That tells me that when push comes to shove, Coach K is willing to sacrifice having a true PG on the court in order to put more experienced players out there. During these stretches, Duke will have Curry or Rivers act as stand in PGs. I think this could be an area Virginia could exploit. Out of those four guards, Cook is the only one who plays any sort of defense. I think these are good times to get Brogdon on the court running the offense. With Malcolm running the point, Sammy and Joe can be the other guards, with Mike and Assane/Akil/Darion down low. This is potentially out best scoring offense. It will be hard for Duke's young defense to prevent Zeglinski and Harris from getting open looks, while dealing with Mike down low, while at the same time worrying about Malcolm at point. I definitely expect this lineup when Cook and Thornton are not in. Anyways, I think Jontel gives us an advantage at PG with his experience and speed. When anyone other than Cook is on him, Bub will have no problem getting to the basket to either finish or dish. I expect Jontel to have a very good game on both ends tonight.
SG: Curry vs. Zeglinski. I think this matchup will be the most important of the game. These two are pretty similar players. Curry is better at getting open looks through either creating his own shot or his ability to use screens, while Sammy is more of a PG and a much better defender. I'd be willing to wager that whoever has the better game of these two will be on the winning team. Sammy struggled last week but hopefully he can rebound tonight. Duke's defense (especially Curry's) will give him plenty of open looks. I also think Sammy can beat Seth off the dribble and get into the paint. This usually leaves Joe open in the corner/wing. However, from all the tape I've watched on Curry, no matter the opponent, he seems to get his fair share of open looks. So I'm going to give him the slight edge, although he is going to have to step up on the defensive end.
SF: Rivers vs. Harris. This is a very interesting matchup. On paper, Rivers should dominate. But I don't expect that to be the case at all. I don't expect Rivers to be a big factor in the game, even if he scores a good number of points. He has shown this year that he can be an immature and selfish player with the ball. Hopefully, the pack line will drive him crazy, as he won't be able to drive to the basket. An experienced Rivers would realize this, and look to kick out every time he drives, but instead, I expect Austin to become frustrated and try to force up shots. The one thing that really worries me about him is his ability to get to the line. Now I don't know how much of it is him being good at drawing fouls and how much is Austin Rivers getting calls, but he goes to the line a lot. Exactly half of his points this year have come from either the FT line or from three. If Joe gets in foul trouble against him, we'll be in trouble. But if the refs call a fair game, I think Joe is prepared to match up with him. I don't expect the refs to call a fair game so I'm giving Rivers the edge.
PF: Kelly vs. Scott- Now I imagine Plumlee will be the one guarding Mike so this one really isn't a matchup, but either way, Mike will have the edge over whoever is guarding him. I think Duke is really vulnerable defensively in the paint, so I assume they'll have a lot of trouble with Mike. As long as nothing flukey happens, like Mike isn't hitting the midrange shots or he gets in foul trouble, I expect a pretty big night from him. Defensively, Kelly will be a tough matchup, but this year's slimmer, more athletic Mike Scott is quick enough to stay with him. We just have to prevent Kelly from catching fire, because that could really screw up our defensive strategy.
C: Plumlee vs. Sene- I just haven't gotten the sense that Mason Plumlee has improved all that much in his career. Still, he'll have an advantage against Sene, but I don't expect him to have a big game. Assane's focus has to be 100% defense and rebounding. If we're in a position where we need Assane's offense, we're not going to be in the game. So we need him to prevent Plumlee from having a big day on the boards. Plumlee (as well as his brother and Kelly) will shoot the midrange shot if we give it to them; we can't afford for Sene to leave that shot open. Also, Zu had a good game in Cameron last year with a good number of offensive boards. That would be incredibly helpful if he could do that again. Still, Mason is definitely a better overall player.
Bench: Both teams play a small ~8 man rotation. Virginia will see Brogdon, Mitchell, Atkins, and Jesperson off of the bench, while Duke has Dawkins, Thornton, Plumlee, Hairston, and Gbinije. I do not expect Jesperson, Hairston, or Gbinije to make any sort of impact or even see all that much time. The difference between the two benches is that Dawkins, Thornton, and Plumlee will definitely see a good chunk of time. Obviously, Brogdon will play plenty for Virginia, but outside of that the amount that Mitchell and Atkins play depends on the game. Duke has the advantage off of the bench, but I wouldn't exactly call them a terribly deep team.
Overall: This is a tough matchup for us, especially in Cameron Indoor. If Duke hits their shots, they are most likely going to win this game. However, Virginia's defense is something that their young guys haven't seen, and will likely give them trouble. I don't expect Duke to run away with the game. I think it will pretty much be up for grabs for just about the entire game. We need to to a better job of getting to the line and hitting free throws, but that may be a tough task in this environment. I like Virginia's chances in this game a lot more than most, but I'm definitely not going to predict a win at Duke. The online simulation did over 200 games and came out with both teams even at 62. I'll go ahead and say that Duke wins 66-59.
*I will leave you with one side note. In games like these, there's seems to be some sort of intangible advantage to the team with the best player. Mike Scott will be the best player on the court tonight. Just how much will that be worth? We'll find out.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
UVA vs. Duke Under Bennett
While Coach Bennett has done a fantastic job of turning the Virginia program around in three years as Head Coach, he still has yet to beat the Duke Blue Devils. Under Bennett, the Cavaliers are 0-4 (0-1 at Cameron Indoor Stadium), losing each game by at least 11 points. But this doesn't tell the whole story.
Game 1 (February 28, 2010) Charlottesville:
#5 Duke- 35 32 67
#5 Duke- 35 32 67
Virginia- 21 28 49
Duke:
Singler- 21pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, 1blk
Scheyer- 20pts, 3 reb, 3ast, 5 stl
Mason Plumlee- 6pts, 4 reb, 2ast, 1blk
Dawkins- 5pts, 2 reb, 2 ast
Miles Plumlee- 3pts, 5 reb, 1 stl, 1 blk, Fouled Out
Virginia:
Meyinsse- 21pts, 7 reb, 1blk
Farrakhan- 7pts, 2 reb, 3 to
Zeglinski- 6pts, 3 reb, 2 ast
Evans- 5pts, 1 reb, 1 ast, 3 stl, 1 blk
Sene- 2pts, 10 reb, 1ast, 2 blk
Scott- 0pts, 1 reb, 2 to in 12 minutes
Duke Shooting: 24-50 for 48% (7-18 from 3 for 38.9%) 12-17 FT (70%)
UVA Shooting: 16-51 for 31.4% (2-12 from 3 for 16.7%) 15-18 FT (83.3%)
Rebounding: 28-27 UVA (OReb: UVA-7 Duke-2)
Notes: The biggest thing that stands out is that this was our first game without Sylven Landesberg (bruised thigh). That season, he was our biggest scoring threat and the team revolved completely around him. I remember sitting down to watch the game on TV, with a little hope that we could beat or at least scare Duke at home (we did beat UNC by 15 in the Dean Dome, although they were bad that year). Then, I heard that Sylven wasn't playing, and I knew it would be ugly. I don't remember what exactly happened with Mike. Maybe he was upset that Landesberg couldn't play (he and Sylven were pretty close), I don't know. But 0pts in 12 minutes tells me Tony didn't like something about the situation. Meyinsse played one of his best games ever, as he just dominated the Duke bigs.
"Mike Scott, the Cavaliers' No. 2 scorer with a 12.8 average, went scoreless for a second straight game, going 0 for 6 in just 12 minutes. He's now 0 for 13 in the past two games.
"I don't know what to tell you," Bennett said of Scott's struggles. "I thought [Meyinsse] battled his butt off and he gave us some stuff and Mike, I didn't see it from Mike tonight."He just wasn't himself in the last couple of games." "
Duke:
Singler- 21pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, 1blk
Scheyer- 20pts, 3 reb, 3ast, 5 stl
Mason Plumlee- 6pts, 4 reb, 2ast, 1blk
Dawkins- 5pts, 2 reb, 2 ast
Miles Plumlee- 3pts, 5 reb, 1 stl, 1 blk, Fouled Out
Virginia:
Meyinsse- 21pts, 7 reb, 1blk
Farrakhan- 7pts, 2 reb, 3 to
Zeglinski- 6pts, 3 reb, 2 ast
Evans- 5pts, 1 reb, 1 ast, 3 stl, 1 blk
Sene- 2pts, 10 reb, 1ast, 2 blk
Scott- 0pts, 1 reb, 2 to in 12 minutes
Duke Shooting: 24-50 for 48% (7-18 from 3 for 38.9%) 12-17 FT (70%)
UVA Shooting: 16-51 for 31.4% (2-12 from 3 for 16.7%) 15-18 FT (83.3%)
Rebounding: 28-27 UVA (OReb: UVA-7 Duke-2)
Notes: The biggest thing that stands out is that this was our first game without Sylven Landesberg (bruised thigh). That season, he was our biggest scoring threat and the team revolved completely around him. I remember sitting down to watch the game on TV, with a little hope that we could beat or at least scare Duke at home (we did beat UNC by 15 in the Dean Dome, although they were bad that year). Then, I heard that Sylven wasn't playing, and I knew it would be ugly. I don't remember what exactly happened with Mike. Maybe he was upset that Landesberg couldn't play (he and Sylven were pretty close), I don't know. But 0pts in 12 minutes tells me Tony didn't like something about the situation. Meyinsse played one of his best games ever, as he just dominated the Duke bigs.
"Mike Scott, the Cavaliers' No. 2 scorer with a 12.8 average, went scoreless for a second straight game, going 0 for 6 in just 12 minutes. He's now 0 for 13 in the past two games.
"I don't know what to tell you," Bennett said of Scott's struggles. "I thought [Meyinsse] battled his butt off and he gave us some stuff and Mike, I didn't see it from Mike tonight."He just wasn't himself in the last couple of games." "
The one thing that I do remember from that game was how unbelievable their Defense was. Without Sylven (and essentially without Mike), we just couldn't score at all. Duke's defense this year isn't 1/4th of what it was that year.
Game 2 (March 12, 2010) ACC Tournament Greensboro:
#4 Duke- 27 30 57
Virginia- 27 19 46
Duke:
Singler- 18pts, 11 reb
Smith- 15 pts, 6 reb, 1ast, 4 stl
Scheyer- 15 pts, 5, reb, 3 ast
Mason Plumlee- 3pts, 1 reb, 1ast, 1stl, 1blk in 15 minutes
Dawkins- 0pts, 1reb, 2 fouls in 10 minutes
Miles Plumlee- 2pts, 5 reb, 2 fouls in 19 minutes
Virginia:
Jones- 15pts, 2 reb, 2 stl
Scott- 14pts, 11 reb, 1 ast
Farrakhan- 9pts, 5 reb, 4 ast, 4 to
Meyinsse- 8pts, 4 reb, 1 ast, 3 blk
Zeglinski- 0pts, 5 reb, 2 ast, 4 stl, 5to, 3 fouls, 0-9 FG (0-4 from 3)
Evans- 0pts, 4 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl in 20 minutes
Sene- 0pts, 2 fouls in 1 minute
Duke Shooting: 21-55 for 38.2% (4-14 from 3 for 28.6%) 11-17 FT (64.7%)
UVA Shooting: 17-53 for 32.1% (3-14 from 3 for 21.4%) 9-11FT (81.8%)
Rebounding: 38-33 Duke (OReb: Duke-10 UVA-7)
Notes: Obviously, this is when Landesberg was off of the team. Despite feeling pretty upset about that, we played a very good opening game of the ACC Tournament in a win over Boston College. Zeglinski played a great game as we upset the Eagles. However, he could not follow that performance up against the eventual National Champions. To this day, I still think had Sammy played like he did against BC, we would have beaten Duke and they wouldn't have won the National Championship (remember their ridiculously easy bracket for their 1 seed?). Anyways, we played a very, very good game. Still didn't shoot very well and had ZERO bench points, but the starters (minus Sam) were playing so well, they didn't need help.
Game 3 (January 16, 2011) Durham:
#1 Duke 25 51 76
Virginia 31 29 60
Duke:
Smith- 29pts, 7 reb, 6 ast, 3 stl
Dawkins- 14pts, 2 reb, 2 ast, 1blk
Singler- 13pts, 4 reb, 2 ast, 2 blk
Kelly- 8pts, 3 reb, 1 blk
Mason Plumlee- 5pts, 16 reb, 2blk
Curry- 7pts, 6 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl
Miles Plumlee- 2 reb, 1to, 1 foul in 4 minutes
Thornton/Hairston played little, did little
Virginia:
Farrakhan-15pts, 3reb, 2 ast, 2stl
Harris- 15pts, 4 reb, 1 stl, 4 fouls in 28 minutes
Sene- 8pts, 5 reb, 1 stl, 1 blk, 4 fouls in 20 minutes
Zeglinski- 8pts, 3 reb, 1 ast
Evans- 6 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl, 3 to
Mitchell- 2pts, 2 reb, 1 stl, 3 fouls in 22 minutes
Duke Shooting: 27-58 for 46.6% (5-20 from 3 for 25%) 17-20 FT (85%)
UVA Shooting: 19-55 for 34.5% (6-16 from 3 for 37.5%) 16-23 FT (69.6%)
Rebounding: 40-25 Duke (OReb: Duke-12 UVA-9)
Notes: In our first road game without Mike Scott, we fought hard, but the #1 ranked Blue Devils were just too much for our young, banged up team. Assane and Akil were essentially our only post players. Even Will Sherrill still wasn't anywhere close to 100% after breaking his leg at Minnesota. Against UNC and Duke, we had no business staying with the talent and depth on those rosters, yet we battled in both games. Farrakhan and Harris shot great and were our offense for much of the game. Assane played a great game as well, with 8pts and 4 offensive rebounds. In the end, though, their size, depth, and talent overpowered us in the second half. Nolan Smith had one of his best games of his career, and they ate us up on the boards in the second half. Still, they didn't have to see Mike Scott. I think our guys learned a lot from this game. They learned from the first half that they shouldn't be afraid of playing Duke on the road. They learned in the second half what can happen if you let Duke get momentum in Cameron and speed the pace of the game up. I think the experience from that game will be crucial to our chances on Thursday night.
Game 4 (February 16, 2011) Charlottesville:
#5 Duke 34 22 56
Virginia 26 15 41
Duke:
Smith- 22pts, 7 reb, 4 ast, 1 stl, 4 to
Kelly- 11pts, 5 reb, 1 stl, 4blk
Mason Plumlee- 9pts, 9 reb, 3 ast, 1stl, 1 blk, 3 to, 4 fouls in 23 minutes
Curry- 7 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast, 3 stl, 1 blk, 3 to, 3 fouls
Miles Plumlee- 2 pts, 6 reb in 13 minutes
Dawkins- 3pts, 3 reb in 26 minutes
Singler, Thornton, Hairston played little did little.
Virginia:
Farrakhan- 11pts, 3 reb, 5 to
Harris- 8pts, 7 reb, 2 ast, 1blk
Evans- 6pts, 1 reb, 1 stl
Sene- 5pts, 4 reb, 1 ast, 1 blk, 4 fouls in 23 minutes
Mitchell- 2pts, 5 reb, 1 ast, 3 stl in 24 minutes
Zeglinski- 2 pts, 5 reb, 4 ast, 2 stl
Harrell added 7pts in 26 minutes.
Duke Shooting: 23-46 for 50% (5-16 from 3 for 31.3%) 5-9 FT (55.6%)
UVA Shooting: 16-56 for 28.6% (3-12 from 3 for 25%) 6-9 FT (66.7%)
Rebounding: 38-27 Duke (OReb: UVA-7 Duke-5)
Notes: I couldn't watch much of this game, but basically it was boring as hell. We couldn't shoot worth a damn. Obviously, with both Scott and Sherrill out, and Assane limited with 4 fouls, we didn't have a chance on the boards. I think both Duke games in Charlottesville under Bennett show that were really not gonna lost by more than about 15ish because of our tempo/defense. So if we have any sort of offensive game, we're gonna have a shot.
Overall obsevations: If I could sum up the performance of these four games against Duke under Coach Bennett in a word, it would be "incomplete". Basically, Duke didn't get anywhere near our best shot in any one of those games. In all 4 games, we were missing our best player. Also, the first two were against the eventual National Champions, while the second two were against an Elite Eight team (plus ACC champions both years). We were really badly overmatched, especially without Scott, Landesberg, and Sherrill. This year, it is a much better matchup. We're bigger, healthier, and much more experienced. I'll have a more in depth preview tomorrow, but I'll end with this: Duke better be ready, because they will be getting our best shot on Thursday night.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Early Duke Game Roster Breakdown:
So with a huge game like this, I'm gonna do a bit more than one game preview. This post will be a look at both teams' rosters and what stands out. Next I'll do a look at some statistics as well as what kind of competition each team has played. Then, on Wednesday or Thursday, I'll do a full game preview. So that's pretty much be my schedule for the week. I think I'm going to hold off on my first recruiting update until after the game. So heads up for this week's stuff.
Anyways:
Duke Blue Devils:
Virginia Cavaliers:
(Obviously, I had to take KT and James off of the Roster. I also had to cut a Duke walk-on for formatting reasons. I hope he can forgive me....)
The very first thing that stands out to me is that we are going to have a great opportunity to dominate the boards. Looking at Duke's roster, they don't exactly have a deep or intimidating frontcourt. Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly are the only players over 6'4 who average 20+minutes per game. Mike Scott (6'8), Assane Sene (7'0), Joe Harris (6'6), and Malcolm Brogdon (6'5) all average more than 20 minutes per game for Virginia. We are definitely going to be the "bigger" team in this game. Also, Miles Plumlee is the only Duke "big" that will likely see action off of the bench, while Virginia has both Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins. Mike should be able to gobble up rebounds all night against Plumlee(s) and Kelly, while Joe, Sammy, and Malcolm should have a big edge on the boards over their small guards. If we can turn this advantage into 2nd chance points, while limiting Duke's, this could be a huge factor for us. The only issue is, as Duke shoots a ton of threes (19.3 attempts per game), there are bound to be some long rebounds. You just gotta hope you can catch some luck on those ones.
The next thing that stands out on the rosters is the backcourt. Everyone knows Duke can beat just about anyone from behind the three point line. This doesn't exactly bode well against our pack-line defense. Rivers, Curry, Dawkins, and Thornton are all around 40% from deep (or even better). Kelly will also step out from the frontcourt and knock them down (47%), but he doesn't have a very intimidating game down low. If the Blue Devils get a lot of open looks from three and are shooting well, nobody can beat them. However, if they are not getting their share of treys, their guard play is very vulnerable. Outside of Rivers, Duke doesn't have guys who are dangerous at driving and getting to the rim. The majority of both Curry and Dawkins' FG attempts are from three. Duke lives and dies by the three more than any team in the country with the exception of maybe Florida (or VCU last year in their Final Four run). So basically there are two keys to beating Duke's guards: don't let them have a field day from behind the arc and don't let Rivers beat you. I'll save this for later in the week, but looking at some game tape, Duke's guards (and actually their bigs as well) are very vulnerable on defense.
The final thing that catches the eye about the rosters is the rotations. Now rotation depth has been a hot button issue for Tony Bennett's team, especially after the transfers of Harrell and Johnson, and the un-redshirting of Jesperson. Many say Virginia's 8 man rotation is a big weakness that will inevitably bring the team down over time. However, one look at the Duke roster and you see they have a similarly small rotation. Virginia has 8 guys that are part of their real rotation (basically guys who will impact the game). Duke also pretty much has an 8 man rotation (maybe 9 but Hairston/Gbinije's stats are inflated by their garbage minutes). Now many of you will say, well Duke has more talent so it's easier for them to pull it off. This may well be true. But my point is, it's interesting that we both are not exactly the deepest teams out there. For the most part, it's going to be Scott, Harris, Zeglinski, Evans, Sene, Brogdon, and Mitchell/Atkins for Virginia while it will be Rivers, Plumlee, Kelly, Curry, Dawkins, Plumlee, Thornton, and a little bit of Cook for Duke. I think this actually bodes well for Virginia, as our guys should be in about the same type of shape as theirs.
Well that's what pops out when I look at the two rosters side by side. Next, I'll look a little deeper into the stats and see what type of impact we can expect each player to make on Thursday night.
Anyways:
Duke Blue Devils:
| 0 | Austin Rivers | G | 6-4 | 200 | FR | Winter Park, FL |
| 2 | Quinn Cook | G | 6-0 | 175 | FR | Bowie, MD |
| 3 | Tyler Thornton | G | 6-1 | 195 | SO | Washington, DC |
| 5 | Mason Plumlee | F | 6-10 | 235 | JR | Warsaw, IN |
| 12 | Alex Murphy | F | 6-8 | 220 | FR | Wakefield, RI |
| 13 | Michael Gbinije | G-F | 6-7 | 205 | FR | Chester, VA |
| 15 | Josh Hairston | F | 6-7 | 235 | SO | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 20 | Andre Dawkins | G | 6-4 | 200 | JR | Chesapeake, VA |
| 21 | Miles Plumlee | F | 6-10 | 245 | SR | Warsaw, IN |
| 30 | Seth Curry | G | 6-2 | 180 | JR | Charlotte, NC |
| 34 | Ryan Kelly | F | 6-11 | 230 | JR | Raleigh, NC |
| 40 | Marshall Plumlee | F | 6-11 | 225 | FR | Warsaw, IN |
Virginia Cavaliers:
| 0 | Doug Browman | G | 5-11 | 176 | JR | Midlothian, VA |
| 1 | Jontel Evans | G | 5-11 | 188 | JR | Hampton, VA |
| 5 | Assane Sene | C | 7-0 | 239 | SR | Saint-Louis, Senegal |
| 11 | Rob Vozenilek | G | 6-2 | 185 | FR | Richmond, VA |
| 12 | Joe Harris | G | 6-6 | 211 | SO | Chelan, WA |
| 13 | Sammy Zeglinski | G | 6-1 | 184 | SR | Philadelphia, PA |
| 21 | Angus Mitchell | F | 6-6 | 205 | JR | Houston, TX |
| 22 | Malcolm Brogdon | G | 6-5 | 215 | FR | Norcross, GA |
| 23 | Mike Scott | F | 6-8 | 237 | SR | Chesapeake, VA |
| 25 | Akil Mitchell | F | 6-8 | 234 | SO | Charlotte, NC |
| 30 | Thomas Rogers | G | 6-6 | 209 | SO | Farmville, VA |
| 32 | Darion Atkins | F | 6-8 | 222 | FR | Clinton, MD |
The very first thing that stands out to me is that we are going to have a great opportunity to dominate the boards. Looking at Duke's roster, they don't exactly have a deep or intimidating frontcourt. Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly are the only players over 6'4 who average 20+minutes per game. Mike Scott (6'8), Assane Sene (7'0), Joe Harris (6'6), and Malcolm Brogdon (6'5) all average more than 20 minutes per game for Virginia. We are definitely going to be the "bigger" team in this game. Also, Miles Plumlee is the only Duke "big" that will likely see action off of the bench, while Virginia has both Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins. Mike should be able to gobble up rebounds all night against Plumlee(s) and Kelly, while Joe, Sammy, and Malcolm should have a big edge on the boards over their small guards. If we can turn this advantage into 2nd chance points, while limiting Duke's, this could be a huge factor for us. The only issue is, as Duke shoots a ton of threes (19.3 attempts per game), there are bound to be some long rebounds. You just gotta hope you can catch some luck on those ones.
The next thing that stands out on the rosters is the backcourt. Everyone knows Duke can beat just about anyone from behind the three point line. This doesn't exactly bode well against our pack-line defense. Rivers, Curry, Dawkins, and Thornton are all around 40% from deep (or even better). Kelly will also step out from the frontcourt and knock them down (47%), but he doesn't have a very intimidating game down low. If the Blue Devils get a lot of open looks from three and are shooting well, nobody can beat them. However, if they are not getting their share of treys, their guard play is very vulnerable. Outside of Rivers, Duke doesn't have guys who are dangerous at driving and getting to the rim. The majority of both Curry and Dawkins' FG attempts are from three. Duke lives and dies by the three more than any team in the country with the exception of maybe Florida (or VCU last year in their Final Four run). So basically there are two keys to beating Duke's guards: don't let them have a field day from behind the arc and don't let Rivers beat you. I'll save this for later in the week, but looking at some game tape, Duke's guards (and actually their bigs as well) are very vulnerable on defense.
The final thing that catches the eye about the rosters is the rotations. Now rotation depth has been a hot button issue for Tony Bennett's team, especially after the transfers of Harrell and Johnson, and the un-redshirting of Jesperson. Many say Virginia's 8 man rotation is a big weakness that will inevitably bring the team down over time. However, one look at the Duke roster and you see they have a similarly small rotation. Virginia has 8 guys that are part of their real rotation (basically guys who will impact the game). Duke also pretty much has an 8 man rotation (maybe 9 but Hairston/Gbinije's stats are inflated by their garbage minutes). Now many of you will say, well Duke has more talent so it's easier for them to pull it off. This may well be true. But my point is, it's interesting that we both are not exactly the deepest teams out there. For the most part, it's going to be Scott, Harris, Zeglinski, Evans, Sene, Brogdon, and Mitchell/Atkins for Virginia while it will be Rivers, Plumlee, Kelly, Curry, Dawkins, Plumlee, Thornton, and a little bit of Cook for Duke. I think this actually bodes well for Virginia, as our guys should be in about the same type of shape as theirs.
Well that's what pops out when I look at the two rosters side by side. Next, I'll look a little deeper into the stats and see what type of impact we can expect each player to make on Thursday night.
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