UNC Preview

Okay so I'm going to do a bit of a different style preview for tomorrow's big matchup with the Tar Heels. Instead of just doing a roster breakdown and looking at the matchups, I'm going to do a little bit of film analysis to see what we need to do to pull of the upset.

As most of you already know, this is one of those "something's gotta give" matchups. Carolina loves to speed the game up and score a lot of points, while Virginia tries to control the games tempo, making it a half-court contest. Tomorrow's game will truly be a battle of wills. Without a doubt, Tony Bennett has spent the past couple of days in practice emphasizing to his team the necessity of getting back, setting the defense, and preventing the Tar Heels from getting easy transition buckets. This is the key to the game. If Virginia is able to set their defense and make Carolina run an offense every possession, they will likely win the game. UNC is built to run up and down the court, so when you deny them that and make them set their offense, they really struggle. Sure, they are still able to score, but usually it is a result of their superior talent or size advantage. Because of this, most non-transition shots they end up taking are not exactly "good looks". Let's start our look at the Tar Heels by seeing what happens when you don't get back in transition and set your defense.


This clip is from the Wisconsin game earlier this season. The Badgers are a very, very similar team to Coach Bennett's club, as they emphasize defense and tempo above all else. In this sequence, a Wisconsin guard takes a poor shot from three (although he was open) off of a ball screen with 28 seconds remaining on the Shot Clock.

As you can see, after he shoots the ball, the Badgers try and crash the offensive glass, sending three guys into the paint. This is a huge "no-no" against the Tar Heels, because if you don't get that rebound, it's pretty much a guaranteed 2 points for the Heels on the other end.

Zeller finally secures the rebound, and Carolina is off and running.

Zeller outlets the ball to Kendall Marshall. At the time Marshall gets the ball at around the free throw line, there are still 4 Badgers on the UNC end of the floor. This means trouble for Wisconsin, as it means that they will not have a chance to set their defense.

When you play UNC and you are trying to prevent them from scoring in transition, a good rule to follow is that you must try to have your defense as close to set by the time the ball crosses half court as possible. As it is clear in this frame, when Marshall crosses half court, the Badgers are nowhere near set. They have four defenders outside of the three point line. Marshall notices this and looks to get the ball ahead to Harrison Barnes, who is just so dangerous in these situations.

Jordan Taylor on Wisconsin gets to Barnes about two steps late, just about guaranteeing him an easy shot.

Barnes takes one dribble, pulls up, and hits a shot that he'll make just about 90% of the time.

Getting the defense set will be the key to the game. If Virginia can do this successfully, I think they will have a great shot to win. Carolina is really not a great half court team and Bennett's Pack Line Defense will likely frustrate the Tar Heels, causing them to turn the ball over.

Now let's look at what our plan is on offense. Now we understand that our offense pretty much goes as far as Mike Scott takes it. If he's off, we're not going to win. Thankfully, he has found a way to contribute in every single game. No team has found a real answer to him. While Henson's length might frustrate him a little, I don't think it will affect his performance all that much. Going up against Kenny Kadji on Miami earlier in the year was a great preview for Mike as to what to expect from Henson's defense. So, I'm not going to focus on Mike, as I expect him to get his. What really stuck out about UNC's defense when I watched game film was their inability to defend ball screens. So I'm going to go back to the FSU game last weekend, where for a brief stretch, Jontel Evans looked unstoppable off of the high ball screen.

On this first play, Mike Scott comes up to to set a high ball screen for Bub. Now, it is very important that Mike is the screener, as it forces the defense to pay attention to him after the screen, if he were to either roll to the basket or pop out for a jumper. If this were Akil or Darion, more attention would but paid to Jontel. Anyways, Jontel sizes up the defense after the screen. FSU does not hedge (likely a result of worrying about Scott) so for a moment, Bernard James is covering Jontel.

Bub realizes this mismatch and looks to get into the lane in order to further disrupt the Seminoles' defense.

At this point, Evans's man realizes there's no way he could possibly catch up to him, so he calls for the switch. Jontel decides to take it at James, realizing that the only way he is going to be stopped from getting to the basket is by an off-ball help defender stepping over, because James has no chance of keeping up with his quickness.

Bub sees that Joe Harris's man (I believe Okaro White) is closely watching where Evans is planning on taking the ball. So Jontel decides to go right at White. Doing as any shooter should, Harris slides over to the wing and sets his feet on the three point line.

Evans gives him a good path, allowing Joe to get a shot in rythym, knocking down a very important trey.

In this next sequence, Virginia goes with the exact same look. Scott comes out to set the high ball screen on Evans's man. 

Jontel is fully aware that the defense knows how he broke them down off of the same ball screen just two possessions before, so he decides to set them up. He drives toward the screen then crosses over to the other side. Now, his defender is a good couple of steps behind him.

As he gets inside of the arc, Zeglinski's man, Michael Snaer, steps over to prevent the penetration. Bub sees him and prepares for his next move.

Snaer, remembering how Evans had just kicked the ball out to Harris for the three bites on Bub's fake to Zeglinski in the corner (also, Snaer might have been expecting Virginia to try and tie the game up from behind the arc).

This is a move that Jontel has practiced probably thousands of times and he executes it to perfection, giving himself an easy layup.

If Bub can do this against FSU, who is usually great on ball screens, he should have no problem doing it against a much lazier Carolina defense. With Dexter Strickland out, UNC doesn't have anyone on the roster to match up with Jontel's quickness. Combine that with Zeller, Henson, and McAdoo's lack of commitment on defending screens, and it should provide an opportunity for the Cavaliers to find good looks for players not named Mike Scott.

Hopefully, this film breakdown gives some insight into the matchup between the Hoos and the Heels. Obviously, UNC has a huge talent advantage. If they are able to run the ball and get buckets in transition, it will be a long day. But I really like Virginia's chances controlling the tempo in this one. Wisconsin nearly pulled it off in November. I think we are a better team than them and match up better with the Heels, especially in the post, where UNC had a huge athletic advantage over the Badgers. Now,  although I've sounded very optimistic, I'm still going to predict a Loss for the Hoos. I just can't see UNC losing two at home. I'm afraid that Akil and Darion will get in foul trouble on Zeller, Henson, and McAdoo. We're going to have to shoot well, rebound, control the tempo, and stay out of foul trouble. It's possible, but it's a lot to ask from this team. I'll go ahead as call a 67-61 win for the Tar Heels.

Halfway Mark of the ACC Season:

Well, we're halfway through ACC Regular season play, sitting at 18-4 overall and 5-3 in conference. I would have graded non-conference play with probably an A-, as we took care of business against a weak schedule, with the exception of a fluke performance in the Virgin Islands against TCU. Since then, we've certainly had our fair share of attrition, losing KT Harrell and James Johnson to transfers, as well as Assane Sene to a broken ankle. Right now, we only have 6-7 guys who we can expect to see more than 10 minutes per game. I think this is the best explanation why we have struggled more than I expected during the first half of ACC play. I still think we can beat anybody in the country when we successfully play our style of basketball, but the margin for error is razor thin with such a limited lineup. Losing Assane has really hurt us more than I had initially imagined. The Georgia Tech game, where Sene suffered his ankle injury, was one of the best played basketball games in Tony Bennett's time here at Virginia. Afterwards, though we have had some nice wins against NCST and Clemson, we haven't played a complete 40 minutes like we did against the Yellow Jackets. The silver lining of this is that there were good stretches during the NCST, Clemson, BC, and FSU games where we truly played to our potential. We know it's there, the issue is just making it happen for 40 minutes, not just 20. This is the problem we currently face. In reality, we should probably be 6-2, maybe 7-1, with the schedule we have played so far. There's no excuse to losing to a team like Virginia Tech, even without Assane. It was a terribly played and terribly coached (I'll throw in terribly officiated as well, but I'm not blaming the refs for the loss) game that we deserved to lose. And while a loss to a top 20 team on the road in Florida State may not seem bad at all, no Tony Bennett team should EVER have 21 turnovers. I really thought we had them when we stormed back and took the lead. Instead, we let them regain the momentum, and they never looked back. It seems to me that Tony is really struggling with his short lineup, because he has made some really questionable matchup decisions (most notably Mitchell on Eddie/Hudson vs. VT and Zeglinski on Snaer). It also doesn't help when your 5th year Senior shooter is in the biggest slump of his career, letting it get to his head. I just don't think we are a very good team when we can't rely on Sammy to hit some shots. However, I'm not going to get all "gloom and doom" with you guys. Here's my outlook for the rest of the ACC season:

Wake Forest- As my sister is a Deacon alum, I've followed Wake Forest sports pretty closely over the past 5-6 years. This WF team is very hard to get a read on. At times, they seem like a completely different team from last year (win vs. VT). At other times, they almost seem to have regressed (76-40 loss at home to NCST). The bast way to describe them is young and unpredictable. Contrary to what most believe, they do have talent. Travis McKie is one of the best players in the league. He's an even better guy and I really feel for him that his career is not going as planned (I still think he would have done best at VCU). CJ Harris is just a guy who knows how to score the ball (kind of similar to Erick Green). There's quite a dropoff after those two, but they still have some highly recruited, albeit young, players who can come out and surprise you. The key is getting to them early. If you build an early lead, they start to believe they are the worse team, and won't put up much of a fight. If you let them hang around, then they start to play up to their ability, and can be a surprisingly dangerous team. I think we win this one, but I have no idea what the score will be. Could be 68-44....could be 57-55. We'll see.

North Carolina (2x)- Many fear this matchup not only because of the Tar Heels' talent, but also because of their depth. Usually, I would tend to agree with that, especially without Assane Sene. But UNC has yet to truly impress me all season. Obviously, we learned a lot about them in the FSU game. They are easily frustrated and can be incredibly lazy. Yes, if they come to play, I don't think anyone can beat them, but they very rarely play up to their talent level. I think they will really struggle with our tempo. If we can slow the game down and make them play in the half court, they will certainly be frustrated. They are built around running the ball. While they are still talented, they are not a great half-court team. If we can play our game, they will no doubt turn the ball over plenty, giving us a good shot to win. I actually like our chances in both games, as long as we can stay out of foul trouble. Last year, I was terrified to play them without Mike Scott and with a crippled Will Sherrill, yet it was a game that we really should have won. I think Bennett's style of play is more important than his players in this matchup, and this year, we have better players, so I really think we'll have a shot to steal a game from them. While obviously people have the February 25th game in JPJ circled, I like the game next Saturday. We'll be coming off of a home Wake Forest game (which will hopefully be a confidence booster), while they will have just played their emotional Duke game (plus it will be their 3rd game in 7 days). Look for us to enter the Dean Dome ready to win.

@Clemson- Now we've already seen the Tigers. They put up a great fight in JPJ and will be an even tougher test in Littlejohn, especially with the return of Milton Jennings. I'm not sure if they can play much better than they did last week. If they do, it will be really tough to get the W. If they play like the "real" Clemson team, we can steal a win on the road. LJ can be a really, really tough place to play, even when it's not full. I don't think we should really expect a win there, just ask FSU. But still, we're the better team, so if we play well, we will certainly have a chance.

Maryland (2x)- The Terps are another team who are hard to read. On paper, I would like to think we would sweep them. However, they have some tough guys in Stoglin, Howard, Mosley, and Len. They lack depth just like us, but when their starters are hot, they're a tough team to beat. I would say, though, with their inconsistency, I'd be shocked not to win at least one of these games. But I think we are really going to need to pull out two wins here with this tough second half ACC schedule.

@VT- Don't want to say too much here aside from the obvious revenge factor. I just don't think we will allow them to beat us twice. Greenberg coached his butt off against us the first game, but I think he's used all of his tricks. We should be able to get this win.

FSU- Again, revenge will be on our minds. Although it's early, I would say that this game is in that "must-win" category. If we don't have any wins against Duke/UNC, we're going to need a win against FSU. I still think we are a better team than them. Hopefully, the crowd will be into it and they will have a hard time finding points. I just don't think we will be able to afford losing this game.

Okay so we definitely have a tough stretch ahead of us. We will find out for sure just how good of a team we really are. If we're the type of team I think that we are, I think we should be able to find 5 more wins in ACC play (before the tournament). That would put us at 23-7 (10-6) in conference. At least one win in the ACC Tournament and we would be in a comfortable position for an at large bid. It's not the end of the world if we only win 4 and go 9-7. We would definitely need at least a win or two in Atlanta to get off of the bubble, but I think the ACC is starting to look stronger and 9-7 would have a reasonable chance (not to mention we'd have head to head wins against NCST and Miami). The ACC will for sure get 4 teams in the tournament this year, and unless something strange happens, I can't see NCST and Miami getting a bid over us.

Hang on, it's going to be a bumpy ride the rest of the way.

FSU Preview

Okay so after a three game break, I'm back to preview the game between the #16 Virginia Cavaliers and the #21 Florida State Seminoles. When thinking about this matchup, the first thing that should come to any fans mind should be defense. While the Seminoles don't have the dominant defensive statistics from a year ago, don't be fooled. This is more of a result of their higher tempo than poor defensive play. Virginia still ranks #2 in the nation in Scoring Defense, where they have been just about all of the year. This too is largely a result of tempo, although no one is selling Bennett's defense short. The main difference between these two tough defenses, aside from tempo, is that while Virginia prides itself on Bennett's disciplined pack line system, the Seminoles good defense is a result of their personnel. For them, it's less about the system and more about the athletes. They are so hard to score on because of three things: size, length, and athleticism. For this reason, Virginia will find itself in some very tough matchups, which will make it very hard to create open shots and score the ball. Let's look at these matchups:

Now FSU doesn't fit the mold of PG-SG-SF-PF-C, so I'm going to go strictly on matchups.

Joe Harris vs. Michael Snaer- Now FSU doesn't really ever use a true "point guard", but Snaer is the guy who gets the most touches. The Seminoles' offense really runs through and around him. Because of his height and length, Jontel would not be a good matchup for him, although he might see some time on him in specific situations. I think Joe Harris will check Snaer for most of the game. While he may not be nearly as athletic, Harris can match up with Snaer physically and can force him to get tough shots. Snaer is a streaky shooter, so we'll see what kind of night he has. If he has his shot, he is probably one of the most dangerous guards in the country. With the way Joe has been playing, this should be a really good matchup. But still, I have to give Snaer a slight edge because he is really the heart and soul of this FSU team.

Jontel Evans vs. Delvidas Dulkys- Now I'm not sure whether Jontel will be on Dulkys or Loucks, but I think it will be one of those two. I'll say Dulkys for now for one main reason. We saw what he did to Carolina. Yes, it was a fluke. He scored 25 points more than his season average in that game. But if we put Jontel on him, I think we will be making sure that it doesn't happen again. Dulkys is not a great player. He caught fire one day, but still, he's pretty limited. I'm not totally sure if he'll guard Jontel, but if he does, Bub will have no trouble getting into the lane. My main issue is that, with guys like James, White, and Gibson down low, it will be really hard for Evans to get a shot in the paint, even if he gets by his guy easily. Jontel will have to realize this and look to pass once he gets in deep. I like Bub in this one on both ends of the court.

Sammy Zeglinski vs. Luke Loucks- Loucks is sort of a similar player to Dulkys. He's capable from deep, can play solid defense using his size, but he really isn't (usually) a threat to light it up. Despite being a starter all year, he's only been in double digits in four games. His most impressive statistic, however, is most certainly his 4.1 assists per game. On occasion, you'll see him take the role as floor general and run the FSU offense. He's very good at this, hence the high number of assists. I think the matchup with Sammy will be a hard fought one. Sammy is a much better player overall, but he really needs to get out of this slump. I'm calling this one a push because I just can't assume Sammy's good for 10+ like I used to be able to. However, if Sammy finds his shot again, it could be the decisive factor in this game.

Akil Mitchell vs. Xavier Gibson- Since moving into a starting role after Sene's injury, Akil Mitchell has played some pretty good basketball. While he might not be lighting up the stat sheet, he has been doing all of the little things well. Over the past couple of games, he is starting to show more and more of a low post game, with even a nice little hook shot. He will be called upon often on Saturday, as FSU has some grown men in the post. Obviously, most fans know about 26 year old military veteran Bernard James, but some seem to forget about the 6'11 250lb Senior Xavier Gibson. While Gibson isn't a huge scoring threat (7.7ppg), he is certainly capable of putting the ball in the hoop down low. He's a big body that Virginia will have to keep off of the boards. Most likely we'll see Mitchell, Atkins, and Scott on him at some point in the game. Because of his size and experience, I'll give Gibson the advantage.

Mike Scott vs. Bernard James- I'm going to go ahead and say that this is one of the best post matchups you'll see all year in college basketball. Two grown men going at it in the post. James will try and stop Scott from taking over the game as he has done recently, while Scott will try and keep James off of the boards. Whichever one of these guys does the better job of doing this will likely be on the winning team. The NCST game was a good test for Mike, as he got to go against the big bodies of Howell and Leslie (among others). But he, as well as Mitchell and Atkins, will HAVE to do a better job on the glass. We simply cannot afford another showing like the NCST game or we just won't have a chance. I'll call this a push as well, just for the issue of rebounding. I expect Mike to get his usual helping of 15+.

Bench- While on paper it looks like FSU is a pretty deep team, it's not as bad as it appears. Ian Miller will be the first off of the bench. The young guard has been a topic for discussion in Leonard Hamilton's press conferences. At times, Miller has looked like the big time recruit he was in high school. Other times, he has looked completely lost. He had 18pts against Maryland, but only 10 combined in the next three games. We'll see how he reacts to the pack line defense. Okaro White and Jon Kreft will be the only other guys to see real time off of the bench. White is an athletic big who is capable of coming off the bench and having a big day. Kreft is basically a big body out there for defense and rebounding. The combination of these big guys is a little scary. Scott, Mitchell, and Atkins (and even probably Harris) will have to be very, very active on the glass. Brogdon will also play often. His size will be important against guys like Snaer, Dulkys, and Loucks. Hopefully, he will be able to get by Dulkys/Loucks and finish at the rim.

No surprise here, but this game will be low scoring and most likely very tight. Every possession will be absolutely crucial, so neither team will be able to afford turnovers or poor shots. Before the season, when just about everyone had FSU as the #3 team in the ACC and the team who could challenge UNC and Duke, I picked them 4th, behind Virginia. The main reason for this was that they lost their best two offensive weapons from an already bad offensive team last year. I wondered how they would score. For much of the beginning of the season, I was patting myself on the back. They were really struggling on offense. Now, they seem to have figured things out. However, I still question their offensive potential. My questions will be answered on Saturday, as we'll find out whether they really have improved offensively, or have simply taken advantage of some not-so-great defenses. This game will come down to what we can do on offense against their size, length, and athleticism as well as rebounding. If we don't do either of these well, we won't win. I've got a good feeling about this one, though. I think FSU will struggle mightily on offense, allowing us to pull out an ugly win.

51-49 Hoos.