Well, we're halfway through ACC Regular season play, sitting at 18-4 overall and 5-3 in conference. I would have graded non-conference play with probably an A-, as we took care of business against a weak schedule, with the exception of a fluke performance in the Virgin Islands against TCU. Since then, we've certainly had our fair share of attrition, losing KT Harrell and James Johnson to transfers, as well as Assane Sene to a broken ankle. Right now, we only have 6-7 guys who we can expect to see more than 10 minutes per game. I think this is the best explanation why we have struggled more than I expected during the first half of ACC play. I still think we can beat anybody in the country when we successfully play our style of basketball, but the margin for error is razor thin with such a limited lineup. Losing Assane has really hurt us more than I had initially imagined. The Georgia Tech game, where Sene suffered his ankle injury, was one of the best played basketball games in Tony Bennett's time here at Virginia. Afterwards, though we have had some nice wins against NCST and Clemson, we haven't played a complete 40 minutes like we did against the Yellow Jackets. The silver lining of this is that there were good stretches during the NCST, Clemson, BC, and FSU games where we truly played to our potential. We know it's there, the issue is just making it happen for 40 minutes, not just 20. This is the problem we currently face. In reality, we should probably be 6-2, maybe 7-1, with the schedule we have played so far. There's no excuse to losing to a team like Virginia Tech, even without Assane. It was a terribly played and terribly coached (I'll throw in terribly officiated as well, but I'm not blaming the refs for the loss) game that we deserved to lose. And while a loss to a top 20 team on the road in Florida State may not seem bad at all, no Tony Bennett team should EVER have 21 turnovers. I really thought we had them when we stormed back and took the lead. Instead, we let them regain the momentum, and they never looked back. It seems to me that Tony is really struggling with his short lineup, because he has made some really questionable matchup decisions (most notably Mitchell on Eddie/Hudson vs. VT and Zeglinski on Snaer). It also doesn't help when your 5th year Senior shooter is in the biggest slump of his career, letting it get to his head. I just don't think we are a very good team when we can't rely on Sammy to hit some shots. However, I'm not going to get all "gloom and doom" with you guys. Here's my outlook for the rest of the ACC season:
Wake Forest- As my sister is a Deacon alum, I've followed Wake Forest sports pretty closely over the past 5-6 years. This WF team is very hard to get a read on. At times, they seem like a completely different team from last year (win vs. VT). At other times, they almost seem to have regressed (76-40 loss at home to NCST). The bast way to describe them is young and unpredictable. Contrary to what most believe, they do have talent. Travis McKie is one of the best players in the league. He's an even better guy and I really feel for him that his career is not going as planned (I still think he would have done best at VCU). CJ Harris is just a guy who knows how to score the ball (kind of similar to Erick Green). There's quite a dropoff after those two, but they still have some highly recruited, albeit young, players who can come out and surprise you. The key is getting to them early. If you build an early lead, they start to believe they are the worse team, and won't put up much of a fight. If you let them hang around, then they start to play up to their ability, and can be a surprisingly dangerous team. I think we win this one, but I have no idea what the score will be. Could be 68-44....could be 57-55. We'll see.
North Carolina (2x)- Many fear this matchup not only because of the Tar Heels' talent, but also because of their depth. Usually, I would tend to agree with that, especially without Assane Sene. But UNC has yet to truly impress me all season. Obviously, we learned a lot about them in the FSU game. They are easily frustrated and can be incredibly lazy. Yes, if they come to play, I don't think anyone can beat them, but they very rarely play up to their talent level. I think they will really struggle with our tempo. If we can slow the game down and make them play in the half court, they will certainly be frustrated. They are built around running the ball. While they are still talented, they are not a great half-court team. If we can play our game, they will no doubt turn the ball over plenty, giving us a good shot to win. I actually like our chances in both games, as long as we can stay out of foul trouble. Last year, I was terrified to play them without Mike Scott and with a crippled Will Sherrill, yet it was a game that we really should have won. I think Bennett's style of play is more important than his players in this matchup, and this year, we have better players, so I really think we'll have a shot to steal a game from them. While obviously people have the February 25th game in JPJ circled, I like the game next Saturday. We'll be coming off of a home Wake Forest game (which will hopefully be a confidence booster), while they will have just played their emotional Duke game (plus it will be their 3rd game in 7 days). Look for us to enter the Dean Dome ready to win.
@Clemson- Now we've already seen the Tigers. They put up a great fight in JPJ and will be an even tougher test in Littlejohn, especially with the return of Milton Jennings. I'm not sure if they can play much better than they did last week. If they do, it will be really tough to get the W. If they play like the "real" Clemson team, we can steal a win on the road. LJ can be a really, really tough place to play, even when it's not full. I don't think we should really expect a win there, just ask FSU. But still, we're the better team, so if we play well, we will certainly have a chance.
Maryland (2x)- The Terps are another team who are hard to read. On paper, I would like to think we would sweep them. However, they have some tough guys in Stoglin, Howard, Mosley, and Len. They lack depth just like us, but when their starters are hot, they're a tough team to beat. I would say, though, with their inconsistency, I'd be shocked not to win at least one of these games. But I think we are really going to need to pull out two wins here with this tough second half ACC schedule.
@VT- Don't want to say too much here aside from the obvious revenge factor. I just don't think we will allow them to beat us twice. Greenberg coached his butt off against us the first game, but I think he's used all of his tricks. We should be able to get this win.
FSU- Again, revenge will be on our minds. Although it's early, I would say that this game is in that "must-win" category. If we don't have any wins against Duke/UNC, we're going to need a win against FSU. I still think we are a better team than them. Hopefully, the crowd will be into it and they will have a hard time finding points. I just don't think we will be able to afford losing this game.
Okay so we definitely have a tough stretch ahead of us. We will find out for sure just how good of a team we really are. If we're the type of team I think that we are, I think we should be able to find 5 more wins in ACC play (before the tournament). That would put us at 23-7 (10-6) in conference. At least one win in the ACC Tournament and we would be in a comfortable position for an at large bid. It's not the end of the world if we only win 4 and go 9-7. We would definitely need at least a win or two in Atlanta to get off of the bubble, but I think the ACC is starting to look stronger and 9-7 would have a reasonable chance (not to mention we'd have head to head wins against NCST and Miami). The ACC will for sure get 4 teams in the tournament this year, and unless something strange happens, I can't see NCST and Miami getting a bid over us.
Hang on, it's going to be a bumpy ride the rest of the way.
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