Offseason Update #1: Bennett gets his guy in Anthony Gill, and more:

Well, today has been a crazy day to say the least. I had originally planned to wait until all offseason acquisitions were finalized, but I felt like today was a good day to post for the first time since the Florida game. It has already been a beyond chaotic couple of weeks. Virginia knew going into the offseason that it wanted, or rather needed, to add a couple of transfers to provide some depth to the depleted roster.

-There are three types of players that Coach Bennett has been looking for the past couple of weeks. The first is a post player who would be eligible to play immediately, in order to help lessen the blow of Mike Scott's departure as well as provide some much needed frontcourt depth. The first name that came up was Alex Oriakhi, the Junior Center from UCONN (eligible to play immediately due to their postseason ban). While UVA was mentioned occasionally on Oriakhi's list, the Cavs were never really a factor to land the formal National Champion, who ended up at Missouri. Another player fitting the description was Jared Swopshire, a Forward from Louisville who was not granted his redshirt year. UVA seemed to have a good shot at landing Swopshire, but in the end there wasn't enough mutual interest to spark a connection (he ended up at Northwestern).

The final player who could play next year is Sam McLaurin from Coastal Carolina. McLaurin is a 6'8 230lb PF who will graduate this year. This means that he will be eligible to play next season, as long as he transfers to a school that offers a major the CCU did not. Sam has said that he wants to play his final season of college basketball elsewhere because he wants to go to Law School. Now, this could easily be a polite excuse for another reason, but we don't really know that yet. If he is 100% committed on going to law school, he might have a hard time finding a place where he can play high level basketball as well. In my opinion, I think he'll be willing to pursue a grad program in a similar field, where he can prepare himself if he still wishes to go after next year. I think Virginia would be a great option. While he hasn't played against the best competition, McLaurin still seems like a guy who could come in and contribute for the Cavaliers next season. Virginia's frontcourt next season will only consist of Junior Akil Mitchell, Sophomore Darion Atkins, and Freshman Mike Tobey, so they could obviously use a veteran post player. McLaurin averaged 10 points 7.5 rebounds and 1 block per game last year for CCU. His most impressive outing came against Virginia opponent LSU, where he had 13 points on 6-8 shooting, 16 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Those are very impressive numbers against LSU's frontcourt of Justin Hamilton and Johnny O'Bryant. Here's some of his highlights:

As you can see in the film, McLaurin is a long and lean post player. He looks to be pretty athletic and very active on the boards. Sam doesn't look like the guy who will come into the ACC and dominate the post, but he certainly looks capable of being a presence down low, scooping up some rebounds, and being active on defense. In my opinion, this one's a no brainer. Look for Virginia to get involved in his recruitment. If he comes on board and is able to contribute consistently, UVA could have a pretty dangerous team in 2012-2013.


-The next type of transfers on Virginia's radar were a post player and a point guard for the future. UVA thought it had its guy in TJ McConnell, a sophomore PG transfer from Duquesne. However, the family connections to Arizona Head Coach Sean Miller as well as the prestige of their program (hence the nickname "PointGuardU") proved too difficult to overcome. TJ's father, though, seemed to be won over by Bennett and UVA, but eventually, TJ felt as if the Wildcats had more to offer him. While this one stung, it's not the end of the world. TJ did seem like the prototypical Tony Bennett PG, but there will be others out there. Also, we still have Teven Jones. Now while many Virginia fans have already unfairly written off Teven and are looking for his replacement, I'm a bit more optimistic. For one thing, Teven is probably a more highly regarded recruit coming out of high school than McConnell was, so folks should keep that in mind. Also, I got a chance to play with/against him a couple of weeks ago (along with Akil, Jesperson, and Rogers). Now it's nearly impossible to gauge talent in a pickup game like that, but I have always liked Teven's handle and just the overall control of his game. Also, he's deceptively strong (like Jontel) and very athletic. Working with Bub will prepare him to take over the reins. All this being said, we still need another PG, even if Teven turns out to be a stud. As of now, the main option seems to be Dylan Ennis. Honestly, I can't really see it happening. Villanova was the early favorite, but that could/will change if they add Wake Forest PG Tony Chennault (which seems likely). Then it's Cincinnati. Ennis has already visited these schools and has set up a visit to VT (who I know assume is eliminated with the news of Greenberg's firing). I can't really gauge where he stands, so I have a sort of "wait and see" attitude.

The next guard transfer name is Brian Sullivan. Sullivan is a Freshman SG/Combo Guard at Miami OH looking to transfer. Apparently, he was on grounds this weekend and is a guy that Bennett really likes. Now many fans online have expressed concern that Sullivan isn't really a point guard. I think this really shows how Tony doesn't look for "point guards", but rather guards who can pass, dribble, shoot, and defend. I think Sullivan could be that guy. Like many others, I was hesitant at first, but after watching his film, I think he could be a good fit. Now I still think we might need one more PG in 2013, but Sullivan could be a good option. Here's some highlights:

 One thing is certain about Brian Sullivan...the kid can shoot. His form is just about perfect. He has incredible range and can get off a shot from just about anywhere. What I like about his game is that he seems to be a pretty complete combo guard. While I wouldn't call him a "point guard", he certainly has PG qualities. He seems to have a very good handle and is a very good passer. He averaged 10.3 points per game as a freshman at Miami last year and was absolutely deadly from deep. Because of this, he can score in bunches. He had 24 points against Vanderbilt, all 3 pointers, shooting 8-10 from deep. I think he can be an improved version of Sammy. He's quicker, more athletic, has a better handle, and looks to be a better shooter. While he's not option A at point guard, Sullivan is a guy that could be a great fit here. He seems to be the TJ McConnell of combo guards, if that makes any sense. The more I see of him, the more I like. I think Brian is someone who would really benefit from the year off, as he could both bulk up and learn Bennett's system and his future role as a PG. But like I said, while I think Sullivan is more than capable of running the point, I think we would still look to bring in a true point guard as well.



-Finally, let's get to the big men transfers. Now I'm gonna save the best for last, so I'll start with Damontre Harris. Harris is a 6'9 220lb Sophomore who, like Anthony Gill, is transferring from South Carolina. I have heard a lot of conflicting reports as to where Virginia stands with Harris, but I figured I might as well introduce him. Gill's AAU Coach Rick Lewis (NCST Signee Tyler Lewis's father) was the first to report Gill's commitment to Virginia this afternoon. Interestingly enough, Lewis has said for a couple weeks now that he expected both Gill and Harris to end up in Charlottesville. Well, he's 1 for 1 so far. Anyways, Harris, while very talented, hasn't seemed to scratch the surface of his potential. Every now and then, he'll show flashes of why he was so highly recruited out of High School. Harris averaged 6.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game last year for the Gamecocks. The best description for his game I could come up with is Darion Atkins in a year or two. He's stronger and a bit bigger than Darion, but is similarly defensively minded, long, and shares his shot-blocking and dunking abilities. It's hard to project how Harris would fit into our frontcourt rotation, but he seems like a guy too talented to pass up. Once it all clicks for him, Harris could potentially be a dominant force in the paint (which is why big time programs such as Kansas, Florida, and Marquette have come to visit him the past week or two).

And last but not least, Anthony Gill. Gill's commitment to Virginia this afternoon marked the end of a crazy journey the past couple of weeks. First, when South Carolina Coach Rick Horn was fired, Gill was unsure whether he would transfer or not. When former Kansas State Frank Martin was hired, Gill eventually decided he wanted out, but Martin wasn't really ready to let him go. Finally, he was granted a release. Because of Virginia's strong interest and already existing relationship from his recruitment out of High School, Gill set up his visit to Charlottesville first. It soon became clear that Anthony was down to three schools: UVA, Ohio State, and UNC. With a visit to UVA in the books, and another to Columbus set for the following weekend, UNC finally reentered the picture. However, Gill was put off by Coach Roy Williams's attitude towards him, and decided to eliminate the home state Tarheels (much to the relief of many Wahoo fans). After in-home visits in Columbia by both the Cavalier and Buckeye coaching staffs, Gill went to Columbus to see what Ohio State had to offer. Ultimately, the connection with Virginia was just too much for the Buckeyes to overcome, as Gill chose the Cavaliers this afternoon.

When I first heard of Gill's name as a potential transfer, I naturally went to YouTube to check out his game. After about 45 seconds of film, I was convinced that Bennett absolutely had to reel him in. I could not think of a better fit for our team's needs than Anthony Gill. The easy comparison for Gill is Mike Scott. However, I actually see a bit more in Anthony's game. Now I don't mean to say he's going to be "better" than Mike Scott, but rather the he has to potential to be better. Anthony seems more versatile and athletic than Mike. If Mike has some of Gill's abilities with the basketball or his athleticism, he'd likely be a 1st Round draft pick without question. While many look at Gill's solid but not overly intimidating stats (7.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and see his addition as nothing more that a little bit of post help, I see him as "our guy" for the future. I look at his game and see someone who has all of the tools to be a great, All-ACC type player. I honestly have had a hard time finding any real flaws. For a big man, Anthony is fantastic with the ball in his hands. He is comfortable putting the ball on the floor and even running down the floor to beat a press. His perimeter shot forces defenders to respect his very good up-fakes, which he uses to get his man in the air to blown by him off the dribble. While he will certainly bulk up next year, he has already shown the ability to "body" his man down low and finish with contact. I see Anthony as a more complete version of Mike going into his second year. Add a year off to bulk up and learn the system and Gill could be scary good when he takes the floor in 2013. I like his AAU Coach's description of his game:

Rick Lewis, Gill’s former AAU coach, calls Gill “sneaky athletic.” He recalled a game from a few years ago in which Gill took off from just inside the free-throw line on a fastbreak and dunked.
“I’ve seen him do things where you’re just sitting there and going, ‘Wow!’” said Lewis, the father of 2012 N.C. State recruit Tyler Lewis, who runs his own scouting service.

“He’s a two-handed rebounder and once he gets the ball he rarely fumbles or loses it,” he said. “He’s really good around the basket. He’s more explosive than what a lot of people think he is, but he has the ability to step out and knock down a 15-foot jumper.”

“He’s always been sort of like a sleeping giant,” Lewis said. “I’ve always thought that if he developed that mean streak, he could be like [an NBA player]. (Courtesy of The Daily Progress)

Here are the clips that made me fall in love with his game. While his competition doesn't look to be all that great, you can still get a glimpse at his athleticism and strength with the ball in his hands.

I'll close with talking briefly about Justin Miller. His is a name that many Virginia fans who follow recruiting closely are familiar with. Miller, a 6'1 guard from Missouri, was on Virginia's radar a couple of years ago, before being sidelined his Senior season with an odd foot injury requiring extensive surgery and treatment. Well, I got a text last weekend from a friend who was hanging out with some players and recruits. The text asked me if I knew of a guy named Justin from Missouri who might be coming to Virginia to play next year. I had to do some research, but Miller's name quickly popped up, and I knew that was the guy. Now I don't know much about Miller's game, but from everything I've heard, he's a combo type shooting guard similar to Sullivan. Considering Virginia is taking him as a walk-on, this is the perfect example of a no-lose situation for both parties.

"Once I got over the injury, I was like, 'I'm going to focus on getting better and hopefully put myself in a position to play next year.' "
Miller has been attending Missouri and playing as much basketball as he can. He competes on MU's club basketball team, plays about 2-3 hours of pickup games at the rec center every day and also participates in an online workout with Jason Otter, an elite point guard trainer based in Saginaw, Mich.
His surgically repaired foot has held up to the pounding.
"My foot feels 110 percent," Miller said. "I've never felt this good."
Miller kept in touch with Bennett through a family friend and was invited to work out for the Virginia coaches, who liked what they saw.
"The second my admission stuff goes through, I'm on the team," he said.
Miller plans to enroll at Virginia for summer courses and hopes to make enough of an impact to earn some playing time on an ACC squad that is reportedly thin at point guard behind starter Jontel Evans.
"Division I has always been my dream," Miller said. "Now that a major D-I school is giving me this opportunity, I'm really thankful." (Courtesy of The Columbia Tribune)

That's it for now, but stay tuned...we're not done yet. I plan to have another update within a month, hopefully reporting on more good news as well as discussing our incoming recruits and other topics. Welcome aboard to AnGo Hoos!

A Look Ahead to Florida's Roster:

Florida Gators

PG: Erving Walker 5'8 SR- Probably the thing that should most concern Virginia is Walker's experience. The Senior point guard has his fair share of NCAA Tournament experience, including a run to the Elite Eight a season ago. While his 14ppg and 5 apg are impressive, one must take into account Florida's fast paced tempo, which, like UNC, tends to pad individual stats. Still, Walker is definitely an offensive threat for the Gators. While because of size, one might be tempted to compare Walker with Jontel Evans, I think they are two different PG's. Walker prefers working the ball around the outside rather than looking to drive and attack the defense. This is both good and bad for Virginia. It's good because you don't really have to worry all that much about Walker breaking down the Pack Line defense by penetrating and looking to either finish (or draw a foul) or kick it out to an open shooter for a three. The bad is that Walker is a much better shooter than Evans, and is just one of the many Gators who is more than capable from deep. As I already mentioned, Florida likes to push the ball like Carolina. In transition, Walker usually looks to drive the ball all the way to the free throw line, then look to the wing to hit a trailer for a shot from three. He doesn't really like to take it to the hoop himself and finish, as we often see Jontel do. On defense, he is nowhere near as quick or aggressive as Evans. He doesn't do a great job at moving his feet and has trouble fighting through ball screens. He isn't a "bad" defender, but Jontel should be able to use his quickness to get by him. I assume Bub will guard Walker, although I could potentially see him on Boynton and Sammy on Walker, but most likely it will be the other way around. If Jontel can get up in Walker's grill by using his strength, quickness, and athleticism, he should be able to frustrate him and prevent him from getting good looks.

SG: Kenny Boynton 6'2 JR- Boynton is another experienced Gator guard who should be considered their biggest weapon on offense. He has scored in double figures in all but five of Florida's games this season, but has struggled with his shot the past couple of games. Like the rest of the Gators' guards, his shot is the most dangerous part of his game. He shoots 43% from three and 45% from the field. Over half of the shots he takes in a game are from deep. Bottom line: he lives and dies by the three ball. He's as good if not better than anyone else in the country and getting himself a good look. I assume Zeglinski will be on him for most of the game. Now while Sammy struggled offensively against NCST in the ACC Tournament, he did a great job on shutting down sharpshooter Scott Wood. Now Boynton is a different and more dangerous overall player than Wood, but Sammy's defense last game gives hope for this game. Sammy is quick enough to stay with him, but still it will be really difficult for him to prevent good looks all game. Boynton is just 10-31 from three in the past four games, so hopefully he will continue to struggle with his shot. However, even is Boynton is making his shots, it doesn't necessarily mean a loss for Virginia. In Florida's 10 losses, Boynton still averages about 15ppg. So even if he has a good night, Virginia will still have a chance. The biggest issue will be stopping him from penetrating. Boynton is a little bigger, stronger, and more athletic than Zeglinski, so he will probably try to beat him on occasion. While he is primarily a shooter, he still can beat you off the dribble. Defensively, Boynton will have a bit of a size advantage on Zeglinski, but his defense is pretty average. If Sammy can get his shot back, he should be able to take advantage of some open looks that the Florida defense will give him.

SF: Bradley Beal 6'3 FR- The 5 Star Recruit has had a great frosh season for the Gators. Right now, I think the best description of his game is a slasher/shooter. He'll look for the jumpshot first and if it isn't there, he'll up fake and slash to the basket. When he catches and shoots in rhythm, he can be a deadly shooter. He's also the Gator's biggest threat at attacking the defense. He's strong with the ball and can get to the rim. I really like the matchup with Joe Harris. I think they are fairly similar players, while Beal is smaller and quicker, yet stronger than Harris, who is more of a forward than a guard. I have been really impressed with Joe's defense this year. He has had to guard guys like Harrison Barnes, Tim Hardaway Jr., Ryan Kelly, and Travis McKie. Beal will be yet another test for the Sophomore. I don't think Joe will shut him down completely, but I think he can do a good job at preventing him from getting easy jumpshots and being physical with him when he drives to the basket. I also think Beal will struggle with the Pack Line when he drives, as he hasn't likely seen anything like it before. On defense, Beal is active and athletic. I think Joe's height advantage will give him open looks, but Beal's strength might limit his ability to get inside buckets. Still, I think Harris will be able to have another productive game. The key to this matchup will be rebounding. Both teams lack front court depth, so Beal and Harris are often called upon to rebound the ball. Joe will have to secure the long rebounds on Florida's misses from three. Virginia can't afford to give a team like the Gator's second chance opportunities.

F: Patric Young 6'9 SO- Young is a solid post player with a bright future. His go to move is his hook shot, which he uses frequently. While he is athletic and has some good upper body strength, he isn't as much of a physical force as some of the players Virginia has seen this year. This should be a relief to Virginia fans, who should be sick of teams with intimidating frontcourts by now. Still, Young is a very solid player that Virginia must take seriously. While he has only scored in the double digits in 4 of the past 12 games, three of those were against Kentucky. I would not be surprised at all if Florida tried to test Mike early and maybe get him some quick fouls by feeding Young early and often. I'm still not completely sold on his offensive skill-set, but he definitely is dangerous. However, I do not expect him to take over the game. I think the most important aspect of Young's matchup with Scott is on the defensive end. From what I've seen, Young is only a decent defender. He doesn't use his size and weight as well as he could and is capable of being pushed around in the post. I don't think he has faced a player like Mike, who will draw him further away from the basket than he's used to. When Mike tries to bang it down low, I think Young will get into some foul trouble, which is something the Gators can't afford. If this does happen, it could be a very good sign for Virginia. Quite simply, Patric Young is the only player on the Gator's roster who has even a chance of slowing down Mike Scott. If he isn't on the court, Mike should basically be able to score at will.

F: Erik Murphy 6'10: Don't let Murphy's size fool you. He is much more comfortable playing SF than he is playing C, but because of Florida's thin front line, he has to be a post player. He is often shoved around in the post and really has a hard time being physical with natural big men. After going up against Howell, Leslie, and Painter of NCSU and James, Gibson, and White of FSU the past couple of games, Murphy should be a much easier matchup for Akil Mitchell (and Darion Atkins). I think Akil will be able to get position down low and could actually be a scoring threat for Virginia, much like last game. So much attention will be paid to Mike Scott that Akil should be able to take advantage of his weaker, less athletic defender. The real issue with Murphy is on the offensive end. He is a great shooter who can be a major matchup problem for the post players guarding him. Thankfully, Akil has seen guys like him before (more later) and has done a pretty good job. He will have to work to stay with him and work through screens to prevent him from getting open looks.

Bench: This game will be won and lost by the starters. Florida has a slightly deeper, more talented, and more experienced bench than Virginia, but still, doesn't really have any impact reserves. Both teams are playing without their 6th man (Brogdon for Virginia, Yeguete for Florida; both ironically out with broken feet), so the reserves who do play will mainly serve as breathers for the starters or help for foul trouble. Both teams only have one post player on the bench, so finally, Virginia's lack of frontcourt depth shouldn't be an issue. The only guy UVA has to worry about is Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario. He's an active guard who will knock down some shots if left open.

I wanted to mention this when describing the players but I felt it would be best to save it for the end to serve as a sort of summary. When I watched Florida's game film, the first thing that popped into my head was that they looked like a more athletic version of Michigan. Obviously their tempos are different, but when we are talking about player matchups, there are many similarities between Michigan and Florida. Both have small but strong PG's who aren't afraid to shoot the ball, although Burke is more dangerous because of his ability to create for himself and drive to the basket. Both have deadly shooters in Novak and Boynton (different players but still most dangerous because of their shots), athletic wings in Hardaway and Beal, out of position bigs in Smotrycz and Murphy, and strong PF's in Morgan and Young. Now Virginia's lineup is obviously different from that Michigan win, when Assane Sene and Malcolm Brogdon were playing, but still, the indiviual matchups will be very similar on Friday.


Burke - Evans - Walker

Novak - Zeglinski - Boynton

Hardaway - Harris - Beal

Smotrycz - Mitchell - Murphy

Morgan - Scott - Young

I think this bodes well for Virginia. When I look at these matchups, I see a lot to like. The biggest key for Virginia will be slowing down the production of their guards. For Florida, it will be all about stopping Mike Scott. If Virginia finds any sort of help for Mike, I think it'll have a solid shot to pull of the upset. Either way, I expect it to be yet another very close game. I'll have some more analysis before Friday, so check back in the next couple of days.

NCAA Tournament Field Projection:

With the Selection Show an hour away, here's a last minute field projection with seeding:

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State, North Carolina
16 Seeds:  Lehigh, Lamar, MV St, Vermont, WKU, Detroit

2 Seeds: Missouri, Ohio State, Duke, Kansas
15 Seeds: UNC Asheville, Norfolk State, LIU Brooklyn, Montana

3 Seeds: Baylor, Marquette, Georgetown, Michigan
14 Seeds: South Dakota St., Belmont, NM ST., Loyola

4 Seeds: Louisville, Florida State, Indiana, Wisconsin
13 Seeds: Ohio, Davidson, Seton Hall, Colorado, BYU

 5 Seeds: Wichita State, Florida, Murray State, Memphis
12 Seeds: South Florida, St. Bonaventure, Texas, NCST, California

 6 Seeds: Creighton, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, New Mexico
11 Seeds: Colorado State, Xavier, VCU, Long Beach State

 7 Seeds: San Diego State, St. Mary's, Temple, UNLV
10 Seeds: Virginia, Purdue, West Virginia, Southern Miss

 8 Seeds: Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Alabama, Kansas State
9 Seeds: Iowa State, Connecticut, Harvard, St. Louis


So by looking at this, we would be playing one of SDSU, St. Mary's, Temple, or UNLV. I'd love to get St. Mary's or Temple. I want no part of the MWC teams.

NCSU Thoughts and Bubble Watch:

Yesterday's game was rough. What is most frustrating is that if you told me Scott, Harris, and Mitchell would combine for 51 points, UVA would win the rebounding and turnover battles, and have the same number of fouls as NCST, I would have been convinced Virginia won the game. In my preview, I said that rebounding would probably be the X-factor. This didn't turn out to be the case, as State found other ways to win. Maybe it was because they shot 54% against our defense, so they didn't really have that many offensive rebound opportunities. They hit a lot of shots that I just hadn't seen them hit before this season. Lorenzo Brown and CJ Leslie played the best games I have ever seen them play. They combined for 13-16 from the field for 34 points. Brown added two 3 pointers, 8 assists, 4 rebounds, and a block. Leslie grabbed 14 rebounds as well.


I didn't even really think Virginia's defense played that poorly. Early on, Mitchell and Atkins were completely overwhelmed by Leslie. Once Akil settled in, he did a much better job. I'm still a little frustrated that the refs never whistled Leslie for a hook (he did it on just about every one of his shots). That's a call that UNC and Duke get without hesitation. If they called an early hook on Leslie (there are three that instantly come to my mind), then he probably would have done it less, since he ended up in some foul trouble anyways. Concerning Brown, I thought Jontel did a good job, but the pack line didn't help him out enough. Maybe Bennett was just so concerned with Leslie, Howell, and Wood that he basically told Jontel that he would have to put Brown on "Bub Island", who knows. Brown also hit a couple of tough shots that he doesn't normally hit. I think his size advantage over Evans proved more important than I had anticipated.


Still, I wouldn't say we played horribly. We've shot worse and won; we've turned the ball over more and won; we've defended worse and won. I think it just came down to yet another instance where we just don't have the personnel to win games late. In an end of game situation, we're very predictable. The obvious choice is to give it to Scott, but that isn't as much of a no brainer as many assume. First of all, at the end of the game, you have to assume that you're not going to get a foul call. Scott's defenders know this and know they could be even more physical than earlier in the game. Also, with a big time player like Mike, it's almost too predictable to give him the ball and let him do his thing. The defense will see that coming. The defense also knows that the ball most likely won't be going to Mitchell, especially if they watched the FSU tape where he dropped the pass from Zeglinski. They're also aware that Sammy will likely sit on the outside and try to get a look at a three. So that leaves them to worry about Harris and Evans. With his broken hand, Harris is less of a threat to create his own shot and is most likely going to have to use a screen (which is what happened yesterday). The last option is for Jontel to drive. While predictable, it's hard to stop. But still, it's a risky shot, given his size. I think Virginia has really missed Brogdon the past couple of games. They need a guard who create different types of shots for himself.


I'll close with saying that Mike Scott is the best player in the ACC. Just look at how much harder he has to work for his shots. Zeller, once again, didn't have to work for any of his points. They all came pretty much uncontested, within 5 feet of the hoop. Now don't get me wrong, much of this is due to his fantastic instinct and great positioning, but still, I just don't see the evidence that he is a better player than Scott. Mike has the full attention of the opposing team's defense. He probably gets fouled on 90% of the shots he takes, yet doesn't get all of the calls Zeller gets. Against Maryland, a team with virtually no frontcourt, Zeller went for 22, 30, and 14 in three games. But he only hit 7, 5, and 4 FG's. Compare that to Mike's 25 and 35 in two games on 10 and 11 FG's each. Both are great players, but Mike deserves POY as much as Zeller, if not more. If there ever was a year for Co-POY.....


Bubble Watch:


Okay, I, like many of the "experts:, believe that we are "in", despite yesterday's loss. We have just too clean of a resume (one great win, some very good wins, especially on the road, and no terrible losses) and the bubble is just so bad that I can't see how the committee would leave us out. The only reason I could think of is that they don't think we are a good enough team with all of our injuries. If we we're getting blown out down the stretch, I could buy this. But we've shown that we can still be more than competitive with any team in the country, despite our thin lineup. Plus, our defense will likely be even more difficult to a team that hasn't faced it before. Because of these factors, I'm not really sweating. Here's some more evidence:


I went and made a list of all of the teams who might make the NCAA Tournament. I divided them into two groups: Locks/Already Clinched and Bubble. My "locks" are the teams that nobody is even considering to be on the bubble (ie we're not a "lock"). This gave me a list of 49 teams. So that leaves 18 spots left for the bubble teams to fight over. Here's the RPI Breakdown:

Bubble (32 for 18 spots):

Southern Miss-19

Colorado State-27

California-36

Iona-41

Marshall-42

BYU-44

Purdue-45

Xavier-45

Texas-48

NCST-49

Oral Roberts-50

Virginia-52

USF-53

Ole Miss-54

WVU-56

MTSU-57

Northwestern-60

Miami-61

Nevada-63

Oregon-64

Drexel-66

Seton Hall-67

Dayton->68

Arizona->68

Washington-68

Mississippi State->68

Tennessee->68

So even if you only go off of RPI, which is not our strong suit right now, we're still comfortably "in". Obviously, some of these teams are still playing, so they have opportunities to help or hurt their RPI's. I think our RPI will end up somewhere around 50. The only team behind UVA on this list that I think could have the potential to jump us is WVU and USF. 

However, I think Virginia will jump some teams in front of it. First of all, despite yesterday, I think UVA still has a stronger resume than NCST. Virginia has 7 Top 100 wins, 3 of those on the road, one neutral, and 4 by double digits. NCST has 6 Top 100 wins, one of those on the road, three neutral, none of them by more than 5 points. Virginia also has a 12 point win against #10 Michigan, NCST doesn't have anything close to that. NCST also has the same loss to Clemson on the road, which was our only "bad loss" (we also beat Clemson, they only played them once). NCST also has an 11 point home loss to #195 Georgia Tech. Basically the only reason why NCST's RPI isn't in the 70's is because they played Syracuse and Vandy.

Virginia should also jump Oral Roberts (3 T100 Wins, 2 T50, 2 sub150 losses), BYU (5 T100 wins, 1 T50, no impressive road wins), and Iona (5 T100 wins, 0 T50, 3 sub 150 losses, 2 sub 200 losses). Personally, I think we'll jump some others, but I was just being conservative here.

Most experts have us more comfortably in than this "math" shows, but my point is, even if you try and create a worst case scenario, there's just no real way to leave Virginia out. Our combination of good wins (one great), road wins, double digit wins, no real bad losses, and some impressive close losses is something not many teams have. 

Stop by before the selection show. I'll do some last minute Blind Resumes tomorrow after the ACC Tournament Final.

 

ACC Tourney: NCSU Game Preview

Okay, so I'm finally back in my hotel after a long couple of days (let's go ahead and make that weeks, which explains the giant gap in posts). If you remember the first NCST game from earlier this year, the first thing that comes to your mind is likely how they absolutely dominated Virginia on the boards. Well, not surprisingly, I believe that will be what eventually determines the game. If Virginia lets the Pack double them on the boards like last time, they will have an extremely tough time finding a way to win. If they can at least be competitive on the glass, then their chances of victory will dramatically increase.

Earlier today I got a chance to see this NCST team in person as they took down Boston College. Through the anxious enthusiasm of their players, coaches, and fans, NCST made it known that they were not okay with being in the "First Four Out". They wanted to use this weekend to propel them towards earning an NCAA tournament bid. Before this afternoon, my educated guess would say that they were on the outside looking in. While losses by Northwestern and Washington may have indirectly helped their cause, the Wolfpack would have sent themselves to the NIT with a loss to the Eagles, regardless of what happened to other "bubble" teams.

Thanks partially to some poor BC shooting and unforced turnovers but mainly to their energy at the beginning of the game, the Pack started out on fire, claiming a 14-0 early lead. Many in the building, including myself, wondered whether NCST might drop a 40+ point beatdown on the Eagles, sling-shotting all out their momentum into tomorrow's Quarterfinal game vs. UVA. But State cooled down as BC began to heat up. Eventually, NCST was just too much for Steve Donahue's young, undersized, and, quite frankly, underskilled team. I thought this game, as well as what I saw in the tape from the first State-UVa game helped give me some insight as to what Virginia should expect from their opponent tomorrow.

NC State As a Team:
As I mentioned above, I was a bit of afraid of a dominating Wolpack victory, giving them tons of momentum against a UVA team that isn't exactly peaking. Well, while they did win by 21, I don't really think State played well enough today to gain the type of confidence that might make UVA nervous. As well as they played at the beginning and end of the game, they were just as bad in the middle. After being up 14-0 (and later 43-28 with 17 minutes remaining), they allowed BC to cut the lead to 7 with 8 minutes left. I think the Play-by-Play on ESPN best shows how they let the Eagles back into the game: "Clifford layup...Humphrey layup...Jackson layup...Daniels Three Pointer...Anderson Layup...Anderson Layup...Clifford Tip Shot...Anderson Tip Shot...Daniels Layup". NCST just assumed victory and really stopped playing defense.

I think this is key. I have criticized State's defense all year and what I saw today only strengthened my case. It's not that they are poor defenders, but rather none of them seem to have the will to do what it takes to be good to great defenders. They just always seem to be a step late, one rotation over, etc. My point is twofold. First, I still don't really think they will have any sort of an answer for Mike, even with a double team. Secondly, after a full 40 minutes today, I wonder what kind of gas they will have in their tanks to go hard on defense, especially when the possessions will be much longer than usual. I'll go more in depth on this later.

Wolfpack Players:
PG: Lorenzo Brown 6'5- Brown is a tall, athletic point guard who I like to describe as "hot or cold". It seems like half of the things he does drop your jaw in amazement, while the other times he leaves State fans shaking their heads. Today against BC, he was more of the former, but he definitely showed flashes of coldness. I think his biggest problem is tempo. He seems to really struggle with the question of when he should push the ball versus when he should slow it down and set the offense. He only had 3 turnovers today, but you he had a couple other close calls that showed his tempo hesitance. Still, his 8 assists (and 12 pts) show what he brings. He's pretty solid in most of the PG categories offensively: good vision, nice passing touch, runs the offense well, etc. However, I would definitely not consider him a strong defender. While some might worry at the size difference from Jontel (Brown is a good 5-6 inches taller), I think the bigger mismatch is Bub's quickness and ability to get to the rack against Brown's average lateral quickness and defensive abilities. After what Brown said about Mike Scott today, he's on my good side. He's a good player that has potential to be great if he stays all four years. Thankfully, for our sake, he's not quite there yet. I think it will be a great, competitive battle at PG. Should be fun to watch.

SG- C.J. Williams 6'5- After watching Williams live, a comparison came to me. I thought I might have been wrong, but after watching the night games, I'll stick to it. I said to myself that Williams reminded me of a Dorenzo Hudson from about two years ago. That slimmer, quicker version of Hudson and Williams seem to be similar players. Both like to slash with a one or two dribble pull up, both like to be physical, and both have an inconsistent shot. Today, Williams was off. He wasn't much of a factor at all in the outcome in the game. Joe guarded him last game and I expect we will see the same matchup. I still hesitate to expect a certain performance from Joe with his broken hand, but I think he will be fine against Williams. Even though he gives good effort, he seems to be either on the wrong side of screens or just flat out in the wrong position more than most. Depending on how he is playing tomorrow, we might want to switch our matchups and focus on the guy I'm most worried about...............

SF: Scott Wood 6'6- Wood was straight money today (7-11, 5-9 3p, 22 pts). Even his misses looked good. To be fair, BC gave him more good looks than we did last meeting, but he made some tough ones too. If he shoots like that, we might be in for trouble. Initially I wanted Joe of him to match up with his height to put a hand in his face. The more I thought about it, the more I felt we needed someone who could keep up with him as he ran off screens. While I usually don't like Sammy guarding bigger players (cough cough Michael Snaer), I think speed is more important here. I didn't like the Snaer matchup because Snaer is obviously a lot more than just a shooter. Wood will only really beat us with his shot, so hopefully Sammy will be able to keep up with him and make it difficult. Maybe Sammy did just this last game...maybe Wood was just cold, who knows. On the other end, Sammy had no trouble at all shooting over Wood in the first half, but struggled to get a shot off later in the game. I think Virginia is really going to need another big game from him tomorrow.

F C.J. Leslie 6'8-
I still don't really get C.J. Leslie. Like Brown, sometimes he really lives up to that 5 star, lottery pick status, but other times I'm screaming lazy and overrated. He had another one of those games today, a couple of dominant plays along with long stretches of nothingness. Last game Bennett had Akil, Darion, and Joe switching off on him, and I think we'll see more of the same. I think Darion's role in this game will be crucial. Because of the physical presence of Howell (more later) and our limited rotation, there's a good chance Akil or Mike will get in foul trouble. Darion will need to move his feet better in order to be physical with his body, not with his hands. Leslie has just about the same body as him, so in theory, it should be a good matchup. If Atkins can prevent him from grabbing offensive boards/tips, it will really help Virginia's cause as a team. Last game, Gottfried put Leslie on Scott for much of the game. I don't think that really works, but then again, I don't think Howell does either. Scott shouldn't have any trouble getting his.

F Richard Howell 6'8- Last game, Howell grabbed 5 more offensive rebounds than Virginia's entire team, and only 2 fewer total rebounds. If that happens again, it might be a long afternoon for the Wahoos. If the referees allow him to be as physical (a better way to put it would be "if the refs let him grab and shove UVA's post players out of the way") as in the previous game, the game could get ugly quick. However, the BC game might give Virginia fans some hope. Howell, while he snagged a couple of early rebounds, was called for two straight over the back fouls, to the dismay of Pack fans. Those calls seemed to have affected Howell's aggressiveness on the glass. If he continues to play slightly more tentative in fighting for rebounds, Virginia's bigs might have a better chance limiting State's second chance opportunities. Let's be real here; Howell will get his share of rebounds and putbacks.. The combination of his strength and positioning is just too much for Scott, Mitchell, and Atkins to shut down completely. On the defensive side of the ball, Howell is pretty much just average. Obviously, he prefers to be physical and use his body more than he likes to move his feet and play good defense. He won't have a shot at stopping or slowing down Mike Scott when he's checking him. He can probably take care of Mitchell or Atkins, but considering they aren't really a big part of the offense anyways, that doesn't seem like a big deal for Bennett's team. Bottom line: get Howell some early fouls or just send him a message that you're not gonna put up with him shoving guys to get a rebound. I think Virginia's big men will do a better job of this than last game.

Bench:
Given what has happened the past couple of weeks and months, Virginia fans are likely thirsty for some good news or some sort of a break. Well, the good news is that, like Virginia, NCST plays a 7 man rotation. The bad news is that their two guys off of the bench tend to make a much bigger difference in the game. I'm not saying their "better" basketball players than Atkins or Jesperson...it just mainly comes down to the fact that they are a Junior and Senior.

Alex Johnson 5'10- Johnson is a small, but quick guard. In comparison to Brown, he's better at getting deeper into the lane, kind of like Jontel. However, once he gets into the lane, he doesn't really know what to do with the ball. That said, he's an overall good passer and defender with good speed. I would call him a lesser version of Jontel, only with a little more of a jumpshot (but still not that much of one). His handle is questionable, so if Brown is out of the game, Jontel should give him some trouble. Johnson will probably get around 15 minutes, and isn't really likely to change or take over the game, but he's a solid role player.

Deshawn Painter 6'9- Some of you might remember him as a guy who Dave Leitao recruited pretty
 hard. Painter is slightly taller and slimmer than Howell, but likes to play a similarly physical type of basketball. He's going to be a third option for defending Mike Scott, if (or when) the other two start to struggle. He has good defensive potential, but probably won't be able to give Mike much trouble. Offensively, he looks pretty darn uncomfortable with the ball in his hands. I wouldn't be surprised if we decided to play risky and put the double team on him some. I'm almost certain that he would cough the ball up. Where Painter is dangerous is on the glass. While his rebounding numbers are not great, he's one of those guys who seems to cause more team rebounds, even if they aren't necessarily going to him (I would describe Assane similarly). He's going to be a fresh body of the bench who's job will be to attack UVA's post players and try to: A) get offensive rebounds; B) Get Virginia in foul trouble. However, I just don't see him being all that successful.

Keys to the Game:

1) Rebound, Rebound, Rebound: If it sounds like I'm beating a dead horse, it's because I'm not quite convinced that this horse is dead yet. If Virginia gets crushed on the boards again, they will probably be going home early. They got lucky last time (most winning teams aren't double up on the glass). Tied into this is the issue of foul trouble. Last game, State got so many early offensive boards and putbacks that Virginia's players became frustrated and committed dumb fouls. This cannot happen with such a limited rotation. You can eliminate a lot of the foul concerns by securing as many rebounds as possible. If UVA does this, it will take away NCST's biggest threat.

2) Attack on Offense: As I mentioned earlier, NCST's defense has always seemed soft to me. First of all, I don't see them stopping Mike Scott. Holding him to anywhere from 15-20 points should be considered a success for the Pack. Anything more, and Mike could be in "put-da-team-on-mah-back" mode. The other real weakness I see in the State defense is against Jontel Evans. Bub has had one hell of a 2nd half of the season. NCST struggled mightily against the dribble penetration of BC's guards. I don't think Bub should have any trouble slicing through the Pack (not Pack Line) defense. Also, they are not very good on ball screens, so a little Mike and Bub action could be very effective. Even if Mike dominates, UVA will have to have another option. I'm not comfortable with predicting Sammy or Joe to go off or catch fire, but I do think Jontel could have a big game.

3) Make State Work for Tough Shots: Virginia needs to prevent two sorts of shots in order to be successful. The first of these is the easy put back from an offensive board. We've talked enough about this, so by now, it should be quite obvious. The other potentially killer shot is an open three for Scott Wood. Virginia has to do a better job on him than BC did today. If he goes off for 22, that's basically a W for NCST. I think Sammy is capable of staying with him and making him take contested shots. That's all Bennett can hope for. Virginia will just have to hope that Wood doesn't hit the tough ones.



This game is going to be a battle. I'd be very surprised if the margin of victory was by more than 5 points. State will be fighting for its postseason life, while Virginia is trying to claim a rare ACC Tournament Semifinal appearance. Virginia won't have a short rotation to blame for this game, as both teams will likely play exactly 7 players each. UVa will have to be better on the glass, stay out of foul trouble, and work through the Wolfpack's vulnerable defense. State will have to try and slow Mike Scott, guard the ball screen, and find a way to score against the Pack Line Defense (as well as hope Wood hits his shots). I still don't really think I'm ready to give a score prediction with this Virginia team. It's just really hard to predict how they will continue to respond. I will say that I expect a great basketball game. Should be a fun one. Check back here Saturday morning for some postgame analysis (and hopefully a Semifinal preview).

Hopefully all the motivation Virginia needs is the potential rematch with UNC looming.....

UNC Preview

Okay so I'm going to do a bit of a different style preview for tomorrow's big matchup with the Tar Heels. Instead of just doing a roster breakdown and looking at the matchups, I'm going to do a little bit of film analysis to see what we need to do to pull of the upset.

As most of you already know, this is one of those "something's gotta give" matchups. Carolina loves to speed the game up and score a lot of points, while Virginia tries to control the games tempo, making it a half-court contest. Tomorrow's game will truly be a battle of wills. Without a doubt, Tony Bennett has spent the past couple of days in practice emphasizing to his team the necessity of getting back, setting the defense, and preventing the Tar Heels from getting easy transition buckets. This is the key to the game. If Virginia is able to set their defense and make Carolina run an offense every possession, they will likely win the game. UNC is built to run up and down the court, so when you deny them that and make them set their offense, they really struggle. Sure, they are still able to score, but usually it is a result of their superior talent or size advantage. Because of this, most non-transition shots they end up taking are not exactly "good looks". Let's start our look at the Tar Heels by seeing what happens when you don't get back in transition and set your defense.


This clip is from the Wisconsin game earlier this season. The Badgers are a very, very similar team to Coach Bennett's club, as they emphasize defense and tempo above all else. In this sequence, a Wisconsin guard takes a poor shot from three (although he was open) off of a ball screen with 28 seconds remaining on the Shot Clock.

As you can see, after he shoots the ball, the Badgers try and crash the offensive glass, sending three guys into the paint. This is a huge "no-no" against the Tar Heels, because if you don't get that rebound, it's pretty much a guaranteed 2 points for the Heels on the other end.

Zeller finally secures the rebound, and Carolina is off and running.

Zeller outlets the ball to Kendall Marshall. At the time Marshall gets the ball at around the free throw line, there are still 4 Badgers on the UNC end of the floor. This means trouble for Wisconsin, as it means that they will not have a chance to set their defense.

When you play UNC and you are trying to prevent them from scoring in transition, a good rule to follow is that you must try to have your defense as close to set by the time the ball crosses half court as possible. As it is clear in this frame, when Marshall crosses half court, the Badgers are nowhere near set. They have four defenders outside of the three point line. Marshall notices this and looks to get the ball ahead to Harrison Barnes, who is just so dangerous in these situations.

Jordan Taylor on Wisconsin gets to Barnes about two steps late, just about guaranteeing him an easy shot.

Barnes takes one dribble, pulls up, and hits a shot that he'll make just about 90% of the time.

Getting the defense set will be the key to the game. If Virginia can do this successfully, I think they will have a great shot to win. Carolina is really not a great half court team and Bennett's Pack Line Defense will likely frustrate the Tar Heels, causing them to turn the ball over.

Now let's look at what our plan is on offense. Now we understand that our offense pretty much goes as far as Mike Scott takes it. If he's off, we're not going to win. Thankfully, he has found a way to contribute in every single game. No team has found a real answer to him. While Henson's length might frustrate him a little, I don't think it will affect his performance all that much. Going up against Kenny Kadji on Miami earlier in the year was a great preview for Mike as to what to expect from Henson's defense. So, I'm not going to focus on Mike, as I expect him to get his. What really stuck out about UNC's defense when I watched game film was their inability to defend ball screens. So I'm going to go back to the FSU game last weekend, where for a brief stretch, Jontel Evans looked unstoppable off of the high ball screen.

On this first play, Mike Scott comes up to to set a high ball screen for Bub. Now, it is very important that Mike is the screener, as it forces the defense to pay attention to him after the screen, if he were to either roll to the basket or pop out for a jumper. If this were Akil or Darion, more attention would but paid to Jontel. Anyways, Jontel sizes up the defense after the screen. FSU does not hedge (likely a result of worrying about Scott) so for a moment, Bernard James is covering Jontel.

Bub realizes this mismatch and looks to get into the lane in order to further disrupt the Seminoles' defense.

At this point, Evans's man realizes there's no way he could possibly catch up to him, so he calls for the switch. Jontel decides to take it at James, realizing that the only way he is going to be stopped from getting to the basket is by an off-ball help defender stepping over, because James has no chance of keeping up with his quickness.

Bub sees that Joe Harris's man (I believe Okaro White) is closely watching where Evans is planning on taking the ball. So Jontel decides to go right at White. Doing as any shooter should, Harris slides over to the wing and sets his feet on the three point line.

Evans gives him a good path, allowing Joe to get a shot in rythym, knocking down a very important trey.

In this next sequence, Virginia goes with the exact same look. Scott comes out to set the high ball screen on Evans's man. 

Jontel is fully aware that the defense knows how he broke them down off of the same ball screen just two possessions before, so he decides to set them up. He drives toward the screen then crosses over to the other side. Now, his defender is a good couple of steps behind him.

As he gets inside of the arc, Zeglinski's man, Michael Snaer, steps over to prevent the penetration. Bub sees him and prepares for his next move.

Snaer, remembering how Evans had just kicked the ball out to Harris for the three bites on Bub's fake to Zeglinski in the corner (also, Snaer might have been expecting Virginia to try and tie the game up from behind the arc).

This is a move that Jontel has practiced probably thousands of times and he executes it to perfection, giving himself an easy layup.

If Bub can do this against FSU, who is usually great on ball screens, he should have no problem doing it against a much lazier Carolina defense. With Dexter Strickland out, UNC doesn't have anyone on the roster to match up with Jontel's quickness. Combine that with Zeller, Henson, and McAdoo's lack of commitment on defending screens, and it should provide an opportunity for the Cavaliers to find good looks for players not named Mike Scott.

Hopefully, this film breakdown gives some insight into the matchup between the Hoos and the Heels. Obviously, UNC has a huge talent advantage. If they are able to run the ball and get buckets in transition, it will be a long day. But I really like Virginia's chances controlling the tempo in this one. Wisconsin nearly pulled it off in November. I think we are a better team than them and match up better with the Heels, especially in the post, where UNC had a huge athletic advantage over the Badgers. Now,  although I've sounded very optimistic, I'm still going to predict a Loss for the Hoos. I just can't see UNC losing two at home. I'm afraid that Akil and Darion will get in foul trouble on Zeller, Henson, and McAdoo. We're going to have to shoot well, rebound, control the tempo, and stay out of foul trouble. It's possible, but it's a lot to ask from this team. I'll go ahead as call a 67-61 win for the Tar Heels.

Halfway Mark of the ACC Season:

Well, we're halfway through ACC Regular season play, sitting at 18-4 overall and 5-3 in conference. I would have graded non-conference play with probably an A-, as we took care of business against a weak schedule, with the exception of a fluke performance in the Virgin Islands against TCU. Since then, we've certainly had our fair share of attrition, losing KT Harrell and James Johnson to transfers, as well as Assane Sene to a broken ankle. Right now, we only have 6-7 guys who we can expect to see more than 10 minutes per game. I think this is the best explanation why we have struggled more than I expected during the first half of ACC play. I still think we can beat anybody in the country when we successfully play our style of basketball, but the margin for error is razor thin with such a limited lineup. Losing Assane has really hurt us more than I had initially imagined. The Georgia Tech game, where Sene suffered his ankle injury, was one of the best played basketball games in Tony Bennett's time here at Virginia. Afterwards, though we have had some nice wins against NCST and Clemson, we haven't played a complete 40 minutes like we did against the Yellow Jackets. The silver lining of this is that there were good stretches during the NCST, Clemson, BC, and FSU games where we truly played to our potential. We know it's there, the issue is just making it happen for 40 minutes, not just 20. This is the problem we currently face. In reality, we should probably be 6-2, maybe 7-1, with the schedule we have played so far. There's no excuse to losing to a team like Virginia Tech, even without Assane. It was a terribly played and terribly coached (I'll throw in terribly officiated as well, but I'm not blaming the refs for the loss) game that we deserved to lose. And while a loss to a top 20 team on the road in Florida State may not seem bad at all, no Tony Bennett team should EVER have 21 turnovers. I really thought we had them when we stormed back and took the lead. Instead, we let them regain the momentum, and they never looked back. It seems to me that Tony is really struggling with his short lineup, because he has made some really questionable matchup decisions (most notably Mitchell on Eddie/Hudson vs. VT and Zeglinski on Snaer). It also doesn't help when your 5th year Senior shooter is in the biggest slump of his career, letting it get to his head. I just don't think we are a very good team when we can't rely on Sammy to hit some shots. However, I'm not going to get all "gloom and doom" with you guys. Here's my outlook for the rest of the ACC season:

Wake Forest- As my sister is a Deacon alum, I've followed Wake Forest sports pretty closely over the past 5-6 years. This WF team is very hard to get a read on. At times, they seem like a completely different team from last year (win vs. VT). At other times, they almost seem to have regressed (76-40 loss at home to NCST). The bast way to describe them is young and unpredictable. Contrary to what most believe, they do have talent. Travis McKie is one of the best players in the league. He's an even better guy and I really feel for him that his career is not going as planned (I still think he would have done best at VCU). CJ Harris is just a guy who knows how to score the ball (kind of similar to Erick Green). There's quite a dropoff after those two, but they still have some highly recruited, albeit young, players who can come out and surprise you. The key is getting to them early. If you build an early lead, they start to believe they are the worse team, and won't put up much of a fight. If you let them hang around, then they start to play up to their ability, and can be a surprisingly dangerous team. I think we win this one, but I have no idea what the score will be. Could be 68-44....could be 57-55. We'll see.

North Carolina (2x)- Many fear this matchup not only because of the Tar Heels' talent, but also because of their depth. Usually, I would tend to agree with that, especially without Assane Sene. But UNC has yet to truly impress me all season. Obviously, we learned a lot about them in the FSU game. They are easily frustrated and can be incredibly lazy. Yes, if they come to play, I don't think anyone can beat them, but they very rarely play up to their talent level. I think they will really struggle with our tempo. If we can slow the game down and make them play in the half court, they will certainly be frustrated. They are built around running the ball. While they are still talented, they are not a great half-court team. If we can play our game, they will no doubt turn the ball over plenty, giving us a good shot to win. I actually like our chances in both games, as long as we can stay out of foul trouble. Last year, I was terrified to play them without Mike Scott and with a crippled Will Sherrill, yet it was a game that we really should have won. I think Bennett's style of play is more important than his players in this matchup, and this year, we have better players, so I really think we'll have a shot to steal a game from them. While obviously people have the February 25th game in JPJ circled, I like the game next Saturday. We'll be coming off of a home Wake Forest game (which will hopefully be a confidence booster), while they will have just played their emotional Duke game (plus it will be their 3rd game in 7 days). Look for us to enter the Dean Dome ready to win.

@Clemson- Now we've already seen the Tigers. They put up a great fight in JPJ and will be an even tougher test in Littlejohn, especially with the return of Milton Jennings. I'm not sure if they can play much better than they did last week. If they do, it will be really tough to get the W. If they play like the "real" Clemson team, we can steal a win on the road. LJ can be a really, really tough place to play, even when it's not full. I don't think we should really expect a win there, just ask FSU. But still, we're the better team, so if we play well, we will certainly have a chance.

Maryland (2x)- The Terps are another team who are hard to read. On paper, I would like to think we would sweep them. However, they have some tough guys in Stoglin, Howard, Mosley, and Len. They lack depth just like us, but when their starters are hot, they're a tough team to beat. I would say, though, with their inconsistency, I'd be shocked not to win at least one of these games. But I think we are really going to need to pull out two wins here with this tough second half ACC schedule.

@VT- Don't want to say too much here aside from the obvious revenge factor. I just don't think we will allow them to beat us twice. Greenberg coached his butt off against us the first game, but I think he's used all of his tricks. We should be able to get this win.

FSU- Again, revenge will be on our minds. Although it's early, I would say that this game is in that "must-win" category. If we don't have any wins against Duke/UNC, we're going to need a win against FSU. I still think we are a better team than them. Hopefully, the crowd will be into it and they will have a hard time finding points. I just don't think we will be able to afford losing this game.

Okay so we definitely have a tough stretch ahead of us. We will find out for sure just how good of a team we really are. If we're the type of team I think that we are, I think we should be able to find 5 more wins in ACC play (before the tournament). That would put us at 23-7 (10-6) in conference. At least one win in the ACC Tournament and we would be in a comfortable position for an at large bid. It's not the end of the world if we only win 4 and go 9-7. We would definitely need at least a win or two in Atlanta to get off of the bubble, but I think the ACC is starting to look stronger and 9-7 would have a reasonable chance (not to mention we'd have head to head wins against NCST and Miami). The ACC will for sure get 4 teams in the tournament this year, and unless something strange happens, I can't see NCST and Miami getting a bid over us.

Hang on, it's going to be a bumpy ride the rest of the way.

FSU Preview

Okay so after a three game break, I'm back to preview the game between the #16 Virginia Cavaliers and the #21 Florida State Seminoles. When thinking about this matchup, the first thing that should come to any fans mind should be defense. While the Seminoles don't have the dominant defensive statistics from a year ago, don't be fooled. This is more of a result of their higher tempo than poor defensive play. Virginia still ranks #2 in the nation in Scoring Defense, where they have been just about all of the year. This too is largely a result of tempo, although no one is selling Bennett's defense short. The main difference between these two tough defenses, aside from tempo, is that while Virginia prides itself on Bennett's disciplined pack line system, the Seminoles good defense is a result of their personnel. For them, it's less about the system and more about the athletes. They are so hard to score on because of three things: size, length, and athleticism. For this reason, Virginia will find itself in some very tough matchups, which will make it very hard to create open shots and score the ball. Let's look at these matchups:

Now FSU doesn't fit the mold of PG-SG-SF-PF-C, so I'm going to go strictly on matchups.

Joe Harris vs. Michael Snaer- Now FSU doesn't really ever use a true "point guard", but Snaer is the guy who gets the most touches. The Seminoles' offense really runs through and around him. Because of his height and length, Jontel would not be a good matchup for him, although he might see some time on him in specific situations. I think Joe Harris will check Snaer for most of the game. While he may not be nearly as athletic, Harris can match up with Snaer physically and can force him to get tough shots. Snaer is a streaky shooter, so we'll see what kind of night he has. If he has his shot, he is probably one of the most dangerous guards in the country. With the way Joe has been playing, this should be a really good matchup. But still, I have to give Snaer a slight edge because he is really the heart and soul of this FSU team.

Jontel Evans vs. Delvidas Dulkys- Now I'm not sure whether Jontel will be on Dulkys or Loucks, but I think it will be one of those two. I'll say Dulkys for now for one main reason. We saw what he did to Carolina. Yes, it was a fluke. He scored 25 points more than his season average in that game. But if we put Jontel on him, I think we will be making sure that it doesn't happen again. Dulkys is not a great player. He caught fire one day, but still, he's pretty limited. I'm not totally sure if he'll guard Jontel, but if he does, Bub will have no trouble getting into the lane. My main issue is that, with guys like James, White, and Gibson down low, it will be really hard for Evans to get a shot in the paint, even if he gets by his guy easily. Jontel will have to realize this and look to pass once he gets in deep. I like Bub in this one on both ends of the court.

Sammy Zeglinski vs. Luke Loucks- Loucks is sort of a similar player to Dulkys. He's capable from deep, can play solid defense using his size, but he really isn't (usually) a threat to light it up. Despite being a starter all year, he's only been in double digits in four games. His most impressive statistic, however, is most certainly his 4.1 assists per game. On occasion, you'll see him take the role as floor general and run the FSU offense. He's very good at this, hence the high number of assists. I think the matchup with Sammy will be a hard fought one. Sammy is a much better player overall, but he really needs to get out of this slump. I'm calling this one a push because I just can't assume Sammy's good for 10+ like I used to be able to. However, if Sammy finds his shot again, it could be the decisive factor in this game.

Akil Mitchell vs. Xavier Gibson- Since moving into a starting role after Sene's injury, Akil Mitchell has played some pretty good basketball. While he might not be lighting up the stat sheet, he has been doing all of the little things well. Over the past couple of games, he is starting to show more and more of a low post game, with even a nice little hook shot. He will be called upon often on Saturday, as FSU has some grown men in the post. Obviously, most fans know about 26 year old military veteran Bernard James, but some seem to forget about the 6'11 250lb Senior Xavier Gibson. While Gibson isn't a huge scoring threat (7.7ppg), he is certainly capable of putting the ball in the hoop down low. He's a big body that Virginia will have to keep off of the boards. Most likely we'll see Mitchell, Atkins, and Scott on him at some point in the game. Because of his size and experience, I'll give Gibson the advantage.

Mike Scott vs. Bernard James- I'm going to go ahead and say that this is one of the best post matchups you'll see all year in college basketball. Two grown men going at it in the post. James will try and stop Scott from taking over the game as he has done recently, while Scott will try and keep James off of the boards. Whichever one of these guys does the better job of doing this will likely be on the winning team. The NCST game was a good test for Mike, as he got to go against the big bodies of Howell and Leslie (among others). But he, as well as Mitchell and Atkins, will HAVE to do a better job on the glass. We simply cannot afford another showing like the NCST game or we just won't have a chance. I'll call this a push as well, just for the issue of rebounding. I expect Mike to get his usual helping of 15+.

Bench- While on paper it looks like FSU is a pretty deep team, it's not as bad as it appears. Ian Miller will be the first off of the bench. The young guard has been a topic for discussion in Leonard Hamilton's press conferences. At times, Miller has looked like the big time recruit he was in high school. Other times, he has looked completely lost. He had 18pts against Maryland, but only 10 combined in the next three games. We'll see how he reacts to the pack line defense. Okaro White and Jon Kreft will be the only other guys to see real time off of the bench. White is an athletic big who is capable of coming off the bench and having a big day. Kreft is basically a big body out there for defense and rebounding. The combination of these big guys is a little scary. Scott, Mitchell, and Atkins (and even probably Harris) will have to be very, very active on the glass. Brogdon will also play often. His size will be important against guys like Snaer, Dulkys, and Loucks. Hopefully, he will be able to get by Dulkys/Loucks and finish at the rim.

No surprise here, but this game will be low scoring and most likely very tight. Every possession will be absolutely crucial, so neither team will be able to afford turnovers or poor shots. Before the season, when just about everyone had FSU as the #3 team in the ACC and the team who could challenge UNC and Duke, I picked them 4th, behind Virginia. The main reason for this was that they lost their best two offensive weapons from an already bad offensive team last year. I wondered how they would score. For much of the beginning of the season, I was patting myself on the back. They were really struggling on offense. Now, they seem to have figured things out. However, I still question their offensive potential. My questions will be answered on Saturday, as we'll find out whether they really have improved offensively, or have simply taken advantage of some not-so-great defenses. This game will come down to what we can do on offense against their size, length, and athleticism as well as rebounding. If we don't do either of these well, we won't win. I've got a good feeling about this one, though. I think FSU will struggle mightily on offense, allowing us to pull out an ugly win.

51-49 Hoos.

Virginia Tech Analysis: Explaining how it happened.

As I sat down to rewatch the game tape before writing this, I took out a sheet of paper to jot down things that stood out. Mainly, I was looking for missed opportunities, silly mistakes, or things we do right 9 times out of 10 that we didn't last night. I needed a second sheet of paper. Most of you all ready know this, but Virginia played uncharacteristically bad last night against arch rival Virginia Tech. Credit Seth Greenberg and to Hokies for their gameplan. They were extremely physical with our guys, especially Mike Scott. They were going to do anything possible to slow him down. Before last night, I thought the only person who could stop Mike Scott was Mike Scott. I continue to believe this, as he had 10 of his team's 45 points, while he missed a couple of open shots he hasn't missed all year. Still, the rotation of guys guarding #23 (including Davila, Barksdale, and Raines), bumped up against him and made him work harder than he has all year. What you heard about Duke being a physically weak team is true. They were unable to do what the Hokies frontcourt was able to. However, I don't really think this was the real reason why Virginia lost this game, and more specifically, looked so anemic on offense. Here are a couple of other reasons:

First of all, we just could not shoot the ball all night long. When I watched the game live, it really seemed like VT's physical defense prevented us from getting reasonably open looks. While for a good bit of the game this was the case, a second look at the tape shows that we missed a lot of shots that we should never, ever miss. Obviously, Sammy continued to struggle shooting the ball. He just has looked like a completely different player over the past couple of games. The worst thing about last night's misses was that he was not only missing shots, not only missing open shots, but he was missing open shots badly. One could understand a shooting night like that in cramped and stuffy Cameron Indoor, but at home? In the first half, Zeglinski missed two wide open looks in rhythm from deep. I cannot overemphasize how open these shots were. In the second half, Sam air-balled an only slightly contested jumper with 30 seconds remaining on the shot clock. The worst part of it was that, while he was kicking himself over the poor shot selection, he failed to get back on defense, giving Erick Green an easy transition layup. Also in the second half, Sammy once again missed two wide open threes that weren't even close. In the end, Zeglinski finished 0-7 from the floor, 0-6 from three in 37 minutes. If he did have a stomach bug or flu as many have said, he should not have played 37 minutes, especially given how uncomfortable he looked out there. In the last 5 minutes, you could see how he completely hit a wall. He was basically a liability on defense in addition to his poor shooting. We all love Sammy, especially Tony, but it was a mistake to have him in that long. I don't mean to be overly harsh on the kid. He is an incredibly hard worker, plays fantastic pack-line defense, and is a great veteran leader. I'm in no ways calling for his role on this team to be decreased. He just had one of those nights (and wasn't helped by how he felt physically). It was unfair of Tony to keep him out there. While last night was bad, Sammy will be back soon enough. We're gonna need him, too.

Now Zeglinski was by no means the only person on the team missing shots. The shots that I jotted down were three Mike Scott midrange jumpers, Jesperson's missed wide open three, Evans's 4 missed layups, Akil's missed putback where he had two chances to finish, Brogdon's two missed wide open threes and our many poorly timed missed free throws. Like I said with Zeglinski's misses, I'm not exaggerating when I say wide open. These aren't shots we should hit 50-60% of the time, rather they're ones we hit 80-90% of the time. On these ones, it wasn't anything that VT's defense did to prevent a bucket. These are basically the basketball equivalent of "unforced errors". We won't beat anyone if we miss easy ones like this. I know it sounds simple, but if you're looking for an answer to the question, "How could this game happen?", it comes down to missing these type of shots. Having rewatched the game, we actually did a much better job offensively at creating good looks (we did an especially good job of using screens in the second half) than I had originally thought, but all of that means nothing if you can't finish the open shots you design your offense to create.

Another thing that hurt us, but on a bit smaller scale, was our poor job taking care of the basketball. While we did force more turnovers than we committed ourselves, 12 turnovers in a 47-45 basketball is just unacceptable. The worse part of that was the nature of some of the turnovers. Joe wasn't paying full attention after a rebound mid-second half as he threw the ball to Green right under the basket for an easy layup for two points. Jontel was careless with his dribble and had the ball taken from him a couple of times. Late in the game, after Sammy missed a wide open Mike Scott posting up down low, kicked it to Harris. Joe fed it to Mike, who dribbled it off of his foot when he should have had an easy layup. Very late in the game, we fed to ball to Scott down in the post. As the double team came, Mike tried to hit Brogdon streaking down the lane and airmailed it over his head. These errors, especially the ones late in the game, are just so costly in a 47-45 game. When you not only lose a possession by giving the ball up, but allow them to score off of it on top, you're doing twice the damage in a game like this.

Finally, defensive breakdowns and mismatches put the dagger in our chances. With Assane out, we had basically two options. The first option was to keep the same scheme, plugging in Mitchell and Atkins into Sene's minutes. The other option was to go with a four guard look, limiting Atkins and Mitchell's minutes. Against a team like Virginia Tech, who has only two natural low post players in Victor Davila and Cadarian Raines, it's difficult to tell which lineup would be more effective. Early on, Tony went with the conventional lineup, with Mitchell and Scott down low. However, it was the matchups that were confusing. For most of the first half, Mitchell was on Jarrell Eddie. Eddie is a 6'7 SF who has a skill-set not too dissimilar from Paul Jesperson. He's a shooter first with very deep range and excellent touch and a slasher second. While Eddie is further developed than Jesperson, his ability with the ball isn't anywhere near fully developed. I wouldn't exactly call him someone who can create his own shot with the ball in his hands. I certainly wouldn't call him a guy who could work with his back to the basket. So this means Akil priority on defense should have been to step out on him to prevent his biggest weapon: the deep three. Akil struggled to stay out on him in the first half. While Eddie bricked his first three, later in the half, he moved without the ball to get away from the slower Akil. Scott switched and picked him up, but it was too late as Eddie knocked down an open three (which built momentum for Tech as they built a 4 point halftime lead). I don't know why we had Akil on Eddie. It would have made much more sense to put Harris on Eddie and Mitchell on Dorian Finney-Smith (a 6'8 long armed athlete who Akil would have matched up much better with). Later in the game, Tony realized this and went to the 4 guard lineup, with Harris on Eddie. If I recall correctly, Eddie did not score again in the game and Harris did a great job preventing him open looks. Greenberg smartly responded by sitting DFS, going with the lineup of Green, Brown, Hudson, Eddie, and a big man (Davila, Raines, or Barksdale). This caused another matchup problem for the Hoos.

The other mismatch was with Dorenzo Hudson. As I stated in my game preview, I was a bit unsure as to who would guard Hudson. At 6'5 220, the only guys one would think to put on him are Harris, Brogdon, or maybe Jesperson. He saw all three, mainly Harris and Brogdon, and for much of the night, he was not much of a factor. However, late in the game, as Harris was busy with Eddie, Bennett put Zeglinski on Hudson instead of Brogdon. As I said above, at about the 5 minute mark, Sammy hit a visible wall, as his illness had fully caught up with him. He had no chance against the much, much bigger and more athletic Hudson. While against Sammy, Hudson's only real success was the terrible blocking call (and yes, that was a terrible call despite what Hubert Davis thinks), Zeglinski was a noticeable weakness on the defense and others had to leave their guys to help him out. Because of this, we put Malcolm on him, where Hudson got away with a pushoff (I'm not necessarily saying we should've gotten the call but considering the terrible blocking call and the pushoff called on MB in the first half, we might have deserved a break there) and made a tough shot. I don't remember who, but someone failed to help Brogdon out there, as he was one on one with Hudson in a good position.

Finally, on Tech's last position, they came out of the timeout with a lineup of Brown, Green, Hudson, Eddie, Davila. Our lineup was Evans, Zeglinski, Harris, Mitchell, and Scott. It looked like this:

Evans on Green
Zeglinski on Brown
Harris on Eddie
Mitchell on Hudson
Scott on Davila

While I understand the Hudson had just beaten us down low the past two possessions, I disagree with Tony's decision to put the bigger bodied Akil on Hudson instead of Harris or Brogdon. In this situation (44-43 VT with under 30 seconds to play, VT ball), you have to realize that if you give up a 3, you essentially lose the game. And while I pointed out that Hudson, aside from his 4-6 performance against UNC, was not a three point specialist, you can't give him (a 5th year senior) a kill shot like that. I think we should have put Brogdon on him (or Harris and have Brogdon on Eddie) and tell the rest of the team to not let him get in deep. Scott could have sagged off of Davila, Zeglinski off of Brown. You gotta imagine that Greenberg saw that Akil was on Hudson, called the timeout, and drew the play up. Otherwise, it more than likely would have been a play for Green against Jontel. I like my chances a whole lot better on that one. The biggest thing that bugs me is that Akil was one of the few guys who didn't guard Hudson all night. I really think we would have had a great chance to stop them if we had someone else on Dorenzo.

But I'm not the Coach, and I trust his decisions. Hudson made a great shot that he hasn't made most of the year. Green hit some tough contested shots along the way too. But still, while VT played great and deserves the victory, our guys are gonna be kicking themselves when they watch this film. We just can take the little things for granted. If we're missing shots like we were, we can afford to turn the ball over like we did. In games like these every possession is so valuable. Now, we get Boston College back in JPJ. I really don't like this game. We are a much better team than they are, but the 9pm start after a tough loss like this one makes me worry about a dull crowd. Hopefully both the fans and our players realize that we cannot, simply cannot lose to BC.

I'll have a quick preview of the young Eagles team sometime this week. Go Hoos!

Virginia Tech Preview:

Yes, VT is struggling. Yes, we are coming off one of our biggest ACC blowout wins in a long time. Yes, VT has struggled on the road this year. But, I think this game will be different than most imagine. First of all, it's a rivalry game. The pressure will be on our guys to take care of business against the hated Hokies. Over the years it seems like that pressure has increased as our football team still can't find a way to get a win against Tech. So we've been relying on Coach Bennett's team to reclaim our spot as the main basketball program in Virginia. Now, we definitely have the better team this year, but in this rivalry, that has been a sort of curse. Last year, VT was fighting for a tournament bid while were just trying to stay above .500, yet we beat them twice. It might have been those losses that kept the Hokies out of the tournament yet again. Now, we're the team with the bulls-eye square on our backs. Over the years, Greenberg's teams have shown their ability to get up for big games. While they may lose some bad ones (this is probably the real reason why they've ended up in the NIT), they always have some games where they play out of their minds against better teams. I expect tonight will be one of those nights where they look like a completely different team, but will it be enough? Let's look at the matchup breakdown:

PG: Jontel Evans vs. Erick Green- Green, at least to me, might be the most likable Hokie in some time. He has a nearly ideal game for a PG. He can handle the ball, run the offense, play tough defense, and can find a way to score. He may not be great at any one aspect of the game, but he's good at just about everything. It's because of this that he has scored in double figures in 38 of his past 42 games. That is such an impressive statistic. He hasn't had fewer than 11pts all season. He also averages 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal per game and is shooting 48% from the floor, 40% from three. Those are All-ACC numbers if he can keep them up throughout conference play. Now Jontel should be able to slow him down some. With Delaney in the lineup, Evans and Green did not face each other as much as they will the next 4 games. I look for this to be a good matchup, as each player's strength is on the same side of the  floor (Bub's defense against Green's offense/scoring). However, I think Green has a slight advantage due to his completeness. I don't expect him to absolutely kill us, but I think he'll get his 10-15 points. It will be interesting to see if Bub can get into the lane like he did against Georgia Tech. Green is a step slower than him, and getting by him could cause the Hokies defense to collapse inside.

SG: Sammy Zeglinski vs. Dorenzo Hudson- This is a rare matchup of two 5th year Seniors going against each other. I'm not completely sure exactly how much we'll see these two actually guarding each other, as they are really different players (especially physically), but it's still technically a "matchup" at SG. Hudson has had a really up and down year. He doesn't really look like the same player that was a consistent scorer for the Hokies two years ago. However, on a good night, he can still put up some points. He really is a streaky shooter at best so the key will be to disrupt his shot. I think we'll more or less give him decent looks from deep and hope he misses them. He's certainly capable of hitting threes; he was 4-6 against UNC and 3-5 against Florida International, but just 9-48 the rest of the year. I think he will struggle against the packline, as most of the shots he likes to score from will be greatly contested. Sammy still hasn't completely broken out of his slump just yet. He did hit a couple of threes against Georgia Tech, but still didn't look like the Sammy we expect to see. I think the sell out crowd will help the shots fall tonight. As far as the defensive matchup, I think we'll see Joe and Malcolm on Hudson for most of the game. I still don't really know who Tech will put on Sammy, but I think Hudson will be there for a bit with maybe Rankin and Brown off of the bench. Overall, I like Sammy today. This slump has to end, and what better opponent than the Hokies to do it against.

SF- Joe Harris vs. Jarrell Eddie- I admit, Eddie is a guy who I was way wrong about. He really improved in a way I didn't think was possible for him. He can really light it up offensively, especially from deep. I still have concerns about his defense, but his size allows him to get away with a bit. This should be a really fun head to head matchup. Joe is having a great season, with only really two bad performances all year. The past two games, he has shot 12-21 with 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and a block. However, he only has one three. Hopefully this will change soon, because as much as I love Joe expanding his game and getting more shots in the lane, I don't want that three ball to disappear. Eddie scares me against the pack-line because he can really stroke it from the outside. He had 4 threes against UNC. We need to find a way to at least make his shots somewhat contested. If he has a hot night, we could be in trouble. Still, in this matchup of 2nd year players, Joe is more mature and complete, so I'll give him the advantage.

Now with Sene out with a broken ankle, we will play with two forwards in the post as opposed to a PF and a C. This is my guess as to how we handle the matchups: Scott vs. Davila and Mitchell/Atkins vs. Finney-Smith/Raines/Barksdale. Now I wonder if Seth will try and go big with a lineup like: Green, Eddie, DFS, Raines/Barksdale, Davila (or something like that). If that happens, I think we'll be okay. Evans/Zeglinski can guard Green, Brogdon/Jesperson/Harris can guard Eddie, Harris/Brogdon/Atkins/Mitchell can guard DFS (ideally Harris), Mitchell/Atkins can guard Raines/Barksdale (Joe could even guard Barksdale, too), and Scott on Davila. Basically, we have options. VT is a good team to play right after Sene's injury because we match up well with them at most positions. They're not gonna overpower us down low, even if they play three bigs, so this is a good game to get a feel for how our rotation works without Assane. Anyways, here's my best guess at post matchups:

F- Mike Scott vs. Victor Davila- We'll see Raines and maybe Barksdale as well (and probably plenty of double teams), but I think it will mostly be Davila checking Scott. Saying Mike has dominated the Hokies is an understatement. In the past three games, he has had 21, 21 and 20 points. Overall against the Hokies, he is averaging 17.6ppg and 8.8 rebounds/game. And all of those games were against better VT frontcourts. Plus, as we all know, Mike is a different player this year. I just don't see anyone on the VT roster being able to slow him down. I think he'll either have a big day or VT will double/triple team him, giving others open shots. Pick your poison. What VT really has to worry about is his rebounding. They are not a great rebounding team, so they will struggle to keep our guys, especially Scott, off of the boards. If we have a ~20 rebound advantage like we did against Georgia Tech, this game will not be close. Davila is a decent defender and has the occasional slam, but he won't be a factor. I doubt we'll even use the double team against him, but if we do, he'll turn the ball over plenty.

F- Akil Mitchell/Darion Atkins vs. Dorian Finney-Smith- I think Mitchell will get the start because of his experience and consistency, but Atkins is a pretty good matchup for "Do-Do". While DFS hasn't really looked like a 5 star recruit, especially on the offensive end, he does have the ability to do the little things well, such as rebounds, blocks, and assists. A lot of the reason he has done well with these is because of his body type. He uses his length to create mismatches against other SF's. He won't have much of an advantage against Darion, or even Akil. DFS certainly has more ability to score than either of them, but he has a tendency to become frustrated and disappear from the score sheet against aggressive defense. Most of his big scoring nights this year came against lower level competition who probably didn't have anyone to match up with his size, length, and athleticism. He probably hasn't face a guy like Darion all year, so it'll be interesting to see if he can find a way to score when he doesn't really have the physical edge. Because there's so much unknown in this matchup (three very young players make this happen), I'll call it a push. One key is that Mitchell and Atkins must start to learn to stay out of foul trouble. Without Assane, we have virtually no depth in the post.

Bench: Neither team gets all that much help, at least in terms of scoring help, from the bench. With Assane out, that means Mitchell will likely start. This leaves us with just three scholarship players on the bench in Atkins, Brogdon, and Jesperson. VT isn't in much better shape. They have just 4 guys in Robert Brown, Cadarian Raines, CJ Barksdale, and Marquis Rankin. I really like Brown's game. He's a combo guard who is good with the ball, very quick, and can knock down shots as well. He'll be the first off of the bench and the most likely to contribute (8ppg). He's sort of like our Malcolm, although their games are different. Other than Brown, VT won't get much from their bench. Raines is essentially just a body down low. Barksdale has some "Jeff Allen" type game, but is pretty raw so far. Rankin is a guard who I doubt we see all that much of tonight. I'm calling the bench a push because of our situation in the post. We know that both Mitchell and Atkins will play often, so they will likely impact the game greatly.

Overall, while I like UVA to win at home against the Hokies, I know that VT will show up to play. I can still see us having a convincing win, but I think it comes down to Greenberg's gameplan and our shooting. I really think Seth knows that this is an important game for his future in Blacksburg. If he hasn't already, he's dangerously close to losing his team. After this game, they get BYU at home, go to the Comcast Center to take on Maryland, and then host Duke. Basically, an ugly loss tonight won't exactly help the team's confidence in the middle of this tough stretch. If they start 0-7 in conference, I think there will be even more chaos. Greenberg knows that because of our style of play, our lack of depth due to Sene's injury, and the ability to motivate his team in this rivalry game that this might be the chance to get an upset win to turn the tide of negative momentum that came with starting 0-4 in the ACC. Still, Tony is well aware of this, so I think he'll have our guys ready. Mike will be too much for Tech in the post. If he gets any sort of help, you can expect a win. Plus, this should be one of the best JPJ atmosphere's in a long time. This was the hardest student ticket to get in my two years here. People just love to watch the Hokies squirm and struggle, I guess. :)

64-51 UVA