FSU Preview

Okay so after a three game break, I'm back to preview the game between the #16 Virginia Cavaliers and the #21 Florida State Seminoles. When thinking about this matchup, the first thing that should come to any fans mind should be defense. While the Seminoles don't have the dominant defensive statistics from a year ago, don't be fooled. This is more of a result of their higher tempo than poor defensive play. Virginia still ranks #2 in the nation in Scoring Defense, where they have been just about all of the year. This too is largely a result of tempo, although no one is selling Bennett's defense short. The main difference between these two tough defenses, aside from tempo, is that while Virginia prides itself on Bennett's disciplined pack line system, the Seminoles good defense is a result of their personnel. For them, it's less about the system and more about the athletes. They are so hard to score on because of three things: size, length, and athleticism. For this reason, Virginia will find itself in some very tough matchups, which will make it very hard to create open shots and score the ball. Let's look at these matchups:

Now FSU doesn't fit the mold of PG-SG-SF-PF-C, so I'm going to go strictly on matchups.

Joe Harris vs. Michael Snaer- Now FSU doesn't really ever use a true "point guard", but Snaer is the guy who gets the most touches. The Seminoles' offense really runs through and around him. Because of his height and length, Jontel would not be a good matchup for him, although he might see some time on him in specific situations. I think Joe Harris will check Snaer for most of the game. While he may not be nearly as athletic, Harris can match up with Snaer physically and can force him to get tough shots. Snaer is a streaky shooter, so we'll see what kind of night he has. If he has his shot, he is probably one of the most dangerous guards in the country. With the way Joe has been playing, this should be a really good matchup. But still, I have to give Snaer a slight edge because he is really the heart and soul of this FSU team.

Jontel Evans vs. Delvidas Dulkys- Now I'm not sure whether Jontel will be on Dulkys or Loucks, but I think it will be one of those two. I'll say Dulkys for now for one main reason. We saw what he did to Carolina. Yes, it was a fluke. He scored 25 points more than his season average in that game. But if we put Jontel on him, I think we will be making sure that it doesn't happen again. Dulkys is not a great player. He caught fire one day, but still, he's pretty limited. I'm not totally sure if he'll guard Jontel, but if he does, Bub will have no trouble getting into the lane. My main issue is that, with guys like James, White, and Gibson down low, it will be really hard for Evans to get a shot in the paint, even if he gets by his guy easily. Jontel will have to realize this and look to pass once he gets in deep. I like Bub in this one on both ends of the court.

Sammy Zeglinski vs. Luke Loucks- Loucks is sort of a similar player to Dulkys. He's capable from deep, can play solid defense using his size, but he really isn't (usually) a threat to light it up. Despite being a starter all year, he's only been in double digits in four games. His most impressive statistic, however, is most certainly his 4.1 assists per game. On occasion, you'll see him take the role as floor general and run the FSU offense. He's very good at this, hence the high number of assists. I think the matchup with Sammy will be a hard fought one. Sammy is a much better player overall, but he really needs to get out of this slump. I'm calling this one a push because I just can't assume Sammy's good for 10+ like I used to be able to. However, if Sammy finds his shot again, it could be the decisive factor in this game.

Akil Mitchell vs. Xavier Gibson- Since moving into a starting role after Sene's injury, Akil Mitchell has played some pretty good basketball. While he might not be lighting up the stat sheet, he has been doing all of the little things well. Over the past couple of games, he is starting to show more and more of a low post game, with even a nice little hook shot. He will be called upon often on Saturday, as FSU has some grown men in the post. Obviously, most fans know about 26 year old military veteran Bernard James, but some seem to forget about the 6'11 250lb Senior Xavier Gibson. While Gibson isn't a huge scoring threat (7.7ppg), he is certainly capable of putting the ball in the hoop down low. He's a big body that Virginia will have to keep off of the boards. Most likely we'll see Mitchell, Atkins, and Scott on him at some point in the game. Because of his size and experience, I'll give Gibson the advantage.

Mike Scott vs. Bernard James- I'm going to go ahead and say that this is one of the best post matchups you'll see all year in college basketball. Two grown men going at it in the post. James will try and stop Scott from taking over the game as he has done recently, while Scott will try and keep James off of the boards. Whichever one of these guys does the better job of doing this will likely be on the winning team. The NCST game was a good test for Mike, as he got to go against the big bodies of Howell and Leslie (among others). But he, as well as Mitchell and Atkins, will HAVE to do a better job on the glass. We simply cannot afford another showing like the NCST game or we just won't have a chance. I'll call this a push as well, just for the issue of rebounding. I expect Mike to get his usual helping of 15+.

Bench- While on paper it looks like FSU is a pretty deep team, it's not as bad as it appears. Ian Miller will be the first off of the bench. The young guard has been a topic for discussion in Leonard Hamilton's press conferences. At times, Miller has looked like the big time recruit he was in high school. Other times, he has looked completely lost. He had 18pts against Maryland, but only 10 combined in the next three games. We'll see how he reacts to the pack line defense. Okaro White and Jon Kreft will be the only other guys to see real time off of the bench. White is an athletic big who is capable of coming off the bench and having a big day. Kreft is basically a big body out there for defense and rebounding. The combination of these big guys is a little scary. Scott, Mitchell, and Atkins (and even probably Harris) will have to be very, very active on the glass. Brogdon will also play often. His size will be important against guys like Snaer, Dulkys, and Loucks. Hopefully, he will be able to get by Dulkys/Loucks and finish at the rim.

No surprise here, but this game will be low scoring and most likely very tight. Every possession will be absolutely crucial, so neither team will be able to afford turnovers or poor shots. Before the season, when just about everyone had FSU as the #3 team in the ACC and the team who could challenge UNC and Duke, I picked them 4th, behind Virginia. The main reason for this was that they lost their best two offensive weapons from an already bad offensive team last year. I wondered how they would score. For much of the beginning of the season, I was patting myself on the back. They were really struggling on offense. Now, they seem to have figured things out. However, I still question their offensive potential. My questions will be answered on Saturday, as we'll find out whether they really have improved offensively, or have simply taken advantage of some not-so-great defenses. This game will come down to what we can do on offense against their size, length, and athleticism as well as rebounding. If we don't do either of these well, we won't win. I've got a good feeling about this one, though. I think FSU will struggle mightily on offense, allowing us to pull out an ugly win.

51-49 Hoos.