Florida Gators
PG: Erving Walker 5'8 SR- Probably the thing that should most concern Virginia is Walker's experience. The Senior point guard has his fair share of NCAA Tournament experience, including a run to the Elite Eight a season ago. While his 14ppg and 5 apg are impressive, one must take into account Florida's fast paced tempo, which, like UNC, tends to pad individual stats. Still, Walker is definitely an offensive threat for the Gators. While because of size, one might be tempted to compare Walker with Jontel Evans, I think they are two different PG's. Walker prefers working the ball around the outside rather than looking to drive and attack the defense. This is both good and bad for Virginia. It's good because you don't really have to worry all that much about Walker breaking down the Pack Line defense by penetrating and looking to either finish (or draw a foul) or kick it out to an open shooter for a three. The bad is that Walker is a much better shooter than Evans, and is just one of the many Gators who is more than capable from deep. As I already mentioned, Florida likes to push the ball like Carolina. In transition, Walker usually looks to drive the ball all the way to the free throw line, then look to the wing to hit a trailer for a shot from three. He doesn't really like to take it to the hoop himself and finish, as we often see Jontel do. On defense, he is nowhere near as quick or aggressive as Evans. He doesn't do a great job at moving his feet and has trouble fighting through ball screens. He isn't a "bad" defender, but Jontel should be able to use his quickness to get by him. I assume Bub will guard Walker, although I could potentially see him on Boynton and Sammy on Walker, but most likely it will be the other way around. If Jontel can get up in Walker's grill by using his strength, quickness, and athleticism, he should be able to frustrate him and prevent him from getting good looks.
SG: Kenny Boynton 6'2 JR- Boynton is another experienced Gator guard who should be considered their biggest weapon on offense. He has scored in double figures in all but five of Florida's games this season, but has struggled with his shot the past couple of games. Like the rest of the Gators' guards, his shot is the most dangerous part of his game. He shoots 43% from three and 45% from the field. Over half of the shots he takes in a game are from deep. Bottom line: he lives and dies by the three ball. He's as good if not better than anyone else in the country and getting himself a good look. I assume Zeglinski will be on him for most of the game. Now while Sammy struggled offensively against NCST in the ACC Tournament, he did a great job on shutting down sharpshooter Scott Wood. Now Boynton is a different and more dangerous overall player than Wood, but Sammy's defense last game gives hope for this game. Sammy is quick enough to stay with him, but still it will be really difficult for him to prevent good looks all game. Boynton is just 10-31 from three in the past four games, so hopefully he will continue to struggle with his shot. However, even is Boynton is making his shots, it doesn't necessarily mean a loss for Virginia. In Florida's 10 losses, Boynton still averages about 15ppg. So even if he has a good night, Virginia will still have a chance. The biggest issue will be stopping him from penetrating. Boynton is a little bigger, stronger, and more athletic than Zeglinski, so he will probably try to beat him on occasion. While he is primarily a shooter, he still can beat you off the dribble. Defensively, Boynton will have a bit of a size advantage on Zeglinski, but his defense is pretty average. If Sammy can get his shot back, he should be able to take advantage of some open looks that the Florida defense will give him.
SF: Bradley Beal 6'3 FR- The 5 Star Recruit has had a great frosh season for the Gators. Right now, I think the best description of his game is a slasher/shooter. He'll look for the jumpshot first and if it isn't there, he'll up fake and slash to the basket. When he catches and shoots in rhythm, he can be a deadly shooter. He's also the Gator's biggest threat at attacking the defense. He's strong with the ball and can get to the rim. I really like the matchup with Joe Harris. I think they are fairly similar players, while Beal is smaller and quicker, yet stronger than Harris, who is more of a forward than a guard. I have been really impressed with Joe's defense this year. He has had to guard guys like Harrison Barnes, Tim Hardaway Jr., Ryan Kelly, and Travis McKie. Beal will be yet another test for the Sophomore. I don't think Joe will shut him down completely, but I think he can do a good job at preventing him from getting easy jumpshots and being physical with him when he drives to the basket. I also think Beal will struggle with the Pack Line when he drives, as he hasn't likely seen anything like it before. On defense, Beal is active and athletic. I think Joe's height advantage will give him open looks, but Beal's strength might limit his ability to get inside buckets. Still, I think Harris will be able to have another productive game. The key to this matchup will be rebounding. Both teams lack front court depth, so Beal and Harris are often called upon to rebound the ball. Joe will have to secure the long rebounds on Florida's misses from three. Virginia can't afford to give a team like the Gator's second chance opportunities.
F: Patric Young 6'9 SO- Young is a solid post player with a bright future. His go to move is his hook shot, which he uses frequently. While he is athletic and has some good upper body strength, he isn't as much of a physical force as some of the players Virginia has seen this year. This should be a relief to Virginia fans, who should be sick of teams with intimidating frontcourts by now. Still, Young is a very solid player that Virginia must take seriously. While he has only scored in the double digits in 4 of the past 12 games, three of those were against Kentucky. I would not be surprised at all if Florida tried to test Mike early and maybe get him some quick fouls by feeding Young early and often. I'm still not completely sold on his offensive skill-set, but he definitely is dangerous. However, I do not expect him to take over the game. I think the most important aspect of Young's matchup with Scott is on the defensive end. From what I've seen, Young is only a decent defender. He doesn't use his size and weight as well as he could and is capable of being pushed around in the post. I don't think he has faced a player like Mike, who will draw him further away from the basket than he's used to. When Mike tries to bang it down low, I think Young will get into some foul trouble, which is something the Gators can't afford. If this does happen, it could be a very good sign for Virginia. Quite simply, Patric Young is the only player on the Gator's roster who has even a chance of slowing down Mike Scott. If he isn't on the court, Mike should basically be able to score at will.
F: Erik Murphy 6'10: Don't let Murphy's size fool you. He is much more comfortable playing SF than he is playing C, but because of Florida's thin front line, he has to be a post player. He is often shoved around in the post and really has a hard time being physical with natural big men. After going up against Howell, Leslie, and Painter of NCSU and James, Gibson, and White of FSU the past couple of games, Murphy should be a much easier matchup for Akil Mitchell (and Darion Atkins). I think Akil will be able to get position down low and could actually be a scoring threat for Virginia, much like last game. So much attention will be paid to Mike Scott that Akil should be able to take advantage of his weaker, less athletic defender. The real issue with Murphy is on the offensive end. He is a great shooter who can be a major matchup problem for the post players guarding him. Thankfully, Akil has seen guys like him before (more later) and has done a pretty good job. He will have to work to stay with him and work through screens to prevent him from getting open looks.
Bench: This game will be won and lost by the starters. Florida has a slightly deeper, more talented, and more experienced bench than Virginia, but still, doesn't really have any impact reserves. Both teams are playing without their 6th man (Brogdon for Virginia, Yeguete for Florida; both ironically out with broken feet), so the reserves who do play will mainly serve as breathers for the starters or help for foul trouble. Both teams only have one post player on the bench, so finally, Virginia's lack of frontcourt depth shouldn't be an issue. The only guy UVA has to worry about is Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario. He's an active guard who will knock down some shots if left open.
I wanted to mention this when describing the players but I felt it would be best to save it for the end to serve as a sort of summary. When I watched Florida's game film, the first thing that popped into my head was that they looked like a more athletic version of Michigan. Obviously their tempos are different, but when we are talking about player matchups, there are many similarities between Michigan and Florida. Both have small but strong PG's who aren't afraid to shoot the ball, although Burke is more dangerous because of his ability to create for himself and drive to the basket. Both have deadly shooters in Novak and Boynton (different players but still most dangerous because of their shots), athletic wings in Hardaway and Beal, out of position bigs in Smotrycz and Murphy, and strong PF's in Morgan and Young. Now Virginia's lineup is obviously different from that Michigan win, when Assane Sene and Malcolm Brogdon were playing, but still, the indiviual matchups will be very similar on Friday.
Burke - Evans - Walker
Novak - Zeglinski - Boynton
Hardaway - Harris - Beal
Smotrycz - Mitchell - Murphy
Morgan - Scott - Young
I think this bodes well for Virginia. When I look at these matchups, I see a lot to like. The biggest key for Virginia will be slowing down the production of their guards. For Florida, it will be all about stopping Mike Scott. If Virginia finds any sort of help for Mike, I think it'll have a solid shot to pull of the upset. Either way, I expect it to be yet another very close game. I'll have some more analysis before Friday, so check back in the next couple of days.
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