Yes, VT is struggling. Yes, we are coming off one of our biggest ACC blowout wins in a long time. Yes, VT has struggled on the road this year. But, I think this game will be different than most imagine. First of all, it's a rivalry game. The pressure will be on our guys to take care of business against the hated Hokies. Over the years it seems like that pressure has increased as our football team still can't find a way to get a win against Tech. So we've been relying on Coach Bennett's team to reclaim our spot as the main basketball program in Virginia. Now, we definitely have the better team this year, but in this rivalry, that has been a sort of curse. Last year, VT was fighting for a tournament bid while were just trying to stay above .500, yet we beat them twice. It might have been those losses that kept the Hokies out of the tournament yet again. Now, we're the team with the bulls-eye square on our backs. Over the years, Greenberg's teams have shown their ability to get up for big games. While they may lose some bad ones (this is probably the real reason why they've ended up in the NIT), they always have some games where they play out of their minds against better teams. I expect tonight will be one of those nights where they look like a completely different team, but will it be enough? Let's look at the matchup breakdown:
PG: Jontel Evans vs. Erick Green- Green, at least to me, might be the most likable Hokie in some time. He has a nearly ideal game for a PG. He can handle the ball, run the offense, play tough defense, and can find a way to score. He may not be great at any one aspect of the game, but he's good at just about everything. It's because of this that he has scored in double figures in 38 of his past 42 games. That is such an impressive statistic. He hasn't had fewer than 11pts all season. He also averages 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal per game and is shooting 48% from the floor, 40% from three. Those are All-ACC numbers if he can keep them up throughout conference play. Now Jontel should be able to slow him down some. With Delaney in the lineup, Evans and Green did not face each other as much as they will the next 4 games. I look for this to be a good matchup, as each player's strength is on the same side of the floor (Bub's defense against Green's offense/scoring). However, I think Green has a slight advantage due to his completeness. I don't expect him to absolutely kill us, but I think he'll get his 10-15 points. It will be interesting to see if Bub can get into the lane like he did against Georgia Tech. Green is a step slower than him, and getting by him could cause the Hokies defense to collapse inside.
SG: Sammy Zeglinski vs. Dorenzo Hudson- This is a rare matchup of two 5th year Seniors going against each other. I'm not completely sure exactly how much we'll see these two actually guarding each other, as they are really different players (especially physically), but it's still technically a "matchup" at SG. Hudson has had a really up and down year. He doesn't really look like the same player that was a consistent scorer for the Hokies two years ago. However, on a good night, he can still put up some points. He really is a streaky shooter at best so the key will be to disrupt his shot. I think we'll more or less give him decent looks from deep and hope he misses them. He's certainly capable of hitting threes; he was 4-6 against UNC and 3-5 against Florida International, but just 9-48 the rest of the year. I think he will struggle against the packline, as most of the shots he likes to score from will be greatly contested. Sammy still hasn't completely broken out of his slump just yet. He did hit a couple of threes against Georgia Tech, but still didn't look like the Sammy we expect to see. I think the sell out crowd will help the shots fall tonight. As far as the defensive matchup, I think we'll see Joe and Malcolm on Hudson for most of the game. I still don't really know who Tech will put on Sammy, but I think Hudson will be there for a bit with maybe Rankin and Brown off of the bench. Overall, I like Sammy today. This slump has to end, and what better opponent than the Hokies to do it against.
SF- Joe Harris vs. Jarrell Eddie- I admit, Eddie is a guy who I was way wrong about. He really improved in a way I didn't think was possible for him. He can really light it up offensively, especially from deep. I still have concerns about his defense, but his size allows him to get away with a bit. This should be a really fun head to head matchup. Joe is having a great season, with only really two bad performances all year. The past two games, he has shot 12-21 with 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and a block. However, he only has one three. Hopefully this will change soon, because as much as I love Joe expanding his game and getting more shots in the lane, I don't want that three ball to disappear. Eddie scares me against the pack-line because he can really stroke it from the outside. He had 4 threes against UNC. We need to find a way to at least make his shots somewhat contested. If he has a hot night, we could be in trouble. Still, in this matchup of 2nd year players, Joe is more mature and complete, so I'll give him the advantage.
Now with Sene out with a broken ankle, we will play with two forwards in the post as opposed to a PF and a C. This is my guess as to how we handle the matchups: Scott vs. Davila and Mitchell/Atkins vs. Finney-Smith/Raines/Barksdale. Now I wonder if Seth will try and go big with a lineup like: Green, Eddie, DFS, Raines/Barksdale, Davila (or something like that). If that happens, I think we'll be okay. Evans/Zeglinski can guard Green, Brogdon/Jesperson/Harris can guard Eddie, Harris/Brogdon/Atkins/Mitchell can guard DFS (ideally Harris), Mitchell/Atkins can guard Raines/Barksdale (Joe could even guard Barksdale, too), and Scott on Davila. Basically, we have options. VT is a good team to play right after Sene's injury because we match up well with them at most positions. They're not gonna overpower us down low, even if they play three bigs, so this is a good game to get a feel for how our rotation works without Assane. Anyways, here's my best guess at post matchups:
F- Mike Scott vs. Victor Davila- We'll see Raines and maybe Barksdale as well (and probably plenty of double teams), but I think it will mostly be Davila checking Scott. Saying Mike has dominated the Hokies is an understatement. In the past three games, he has had 21, 21 and 20 points. Overall against the Hokies, he is averaging 17.6ppg and 8.8 rebounds/game. And all of those games were against better VT frontcourts. Plus, as we all know, Mike is a different player this year. I just don't see anyone on the VT roster being able to slow him down. I think he'll either have a big day or VT will double/triple team him, giving others open shots. Pick your poison. What VT really has to worry about is his rebounding. They are not a great rebounding team, so they will struggle to keep our guys, especially Scott, off of the boards. If we have a ~20 rebound advantage like we did against Georgia Tech, this game will not be close. Davila is a decent defender and has the occasional slam, but he won't be a factor. I doubt we'll even use the double team against him, but if we do, he'll turn the ball over plenty.
F- Akil Mitchell/Darion Atkins vs. Dorian Finney-Smith- I think Mitchell will get the start because of his experience and consistency, but Atkins is a pretty good matchup for "Do-Do". While DFS hasn't really looked like a 5 star recruit, especially on the offensive end, he does have the ability to do the little things well, such as rebounds, blocks, and assists. A lot of the reason he has done well with these is because of his body type. He uses his length to create mismatches against other SF's. He won't have much of an advantage against Darion, or even Akil. DFS certainly has more ability to score than either of them, but he has a tendency to become frustrated and disappear from the score sheet against aggressive defense. Most of his big scoring nights this year came against lower level competition who probably didn't have anyone to match up with his size, length, and athleticism. He probably hasn't face a guy like Darion all year, so it'll be interesting to see if he can find a way to score when he doesn't really have the physical edge. Because there's so much unknown in this matchup (three very young players make this happen), I'll call it a push. One key is that Mitchell and Atkins must start to learn to stay out of foul trouble. Without Assane, we have virtually no depth in the post.
Bench: Neither team gets all that much help, at least in terms of scoring help, from the bench. With Assane out, that means Mitchell will likely start. This leaves us with just three scholarship players on the bench in Atkins, Brogdon, and Jesperson. VT isn't in much better shape. They have just 4 guys in Robert Brown, Cadarian Raines, CJ Barksdale, and Marquis Rankin. I really like Brown's game. He's a combo guard who is good with the ball, very quick, and can knock down shots as well. He'll be the first off of the bench and the most likely to contribute (8ppg). He's sort of like our Malcolm, although their games are different. Other than Brown, VT won't get much from their bench. Raines is essentially just a body down low. Barksdale has some "Jeff Allen" type game, but is pretty raw so far. Rankin is a guard who I doubt we see all that much of tonight. I'm calling the bench a push because of our situation in the post. We know that both Mitchell and Atkins will play often, so they will likely impact the game greatly.
Overall, while I like UVA to win at home against the Hokies, I know that VT will show up to play. I can still see us having a convincing win, but I think it comes down to Greenberg's gameplan and our shooting. I really think Seth knows that this is an important game for his future in Blacksburg. If he hasn't already, he's dangerously close to losing his team. After this game, they get BYU at home, go to the Comcast Center to take on Maryland, and then host Duke. Basically, an ugly loss tonight won't exactly help the team's confidence in the middle of this tough stretch. If they start 0-7 in conference, I think there will be even more chaos. Greenberg knows that because of our style of play, our lack of depth due to Sene's injury, and the ability to motivate his team in this rivalry game that this might be the chance to get an upset win to turn the tide of negative momentum that came with starting 0-4 in the ACC. Still, Tony is well aware of this, so I think he'll have our guys ready. Mike will be too much for Tech in the post. If he gets any sort of help, you can expect a win. Plus, this should be one of the best JPJ atmosphere's in a long time. This was the hardest student ticket to get in my two years here. People just love to watch the Hokies squirm and struggle, I guess. :)
64-51 UVA
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