Tuesday, November 19, 2013

VCU/Davidson Recap, Navy/Liberty/Hampton Preview:

VCU

I don't want to spend a ton of time on the VCU game. I could go and break down every little aspect of the game, and try and explain why the outcome was what it was, but honestly it's just probably better not to. VCU is a really good team. It was a terrible matchup for us. Yet, we went out there and competed. We played our game and damn near came out with a win. Yes, like pretty much every other Virginia fan, if you had told me ahead of time that VCU would only score in the 50s, I would have taken that to meant that UVA won. But credit VCU for finding a way to win, even when UVA took them out of their comfort zone. Virginia did everything it needed to do to win except finish. I try and make sure I never get ahead of myself during games. I know better than to assume victory before the clock reads zero. But I have to admit, I really liked where Virginia stood up 55-49 with under 3 minutes left. Then Juvonte Reddic slammed home a putback dunk after a missed jumper, immediately causing me to regret ever feeling even somewhat comfortable. As soon as that play happened, I thought back to the UNC game in 2012. While the situation was different, the feeling was painfully similar. Up 1 with 7 minutes left, Henson absolutely posterized Joe Harris off an inbounds play with a left handed slam, just like Reddic's. While both dunks were merely two points for each team, and Virginia had many more opportunities afterwards to erase the memory of the plays, they represent two huge bursts of momentum for UNC and VCU. Following Reddic's dunk, we still held a 4 point lead with 2 minutes remaining in the game. That may not seem like much, but in the context of that game, it was pretty substantial. The problem was, Reddic's dunk created a brand new game, in a way. One of the VCU assistants hit the nail on the head when he said following the game that UVA imposed its style on the game for 37 minutes, but the last three minutes were HAVOC.

Following that Reddic dunk, Joe got called for a charge, Burgess drilled a three, Joe missed a jumper, Justin committed an awful turnover, and Graham hit the floater to give the Rams the lead. We were short on timeouts (I believe we only had two remaining at the time), but I think we really should have used one if not following Reddic's dunk, then certainly following the three to put VCU within one. We ended up sitting on a timeout anyways.

As far as individual performances in that game go, for all the heat Joe has taken thus far in the year (which, by the way, is absolutely ridiculous), I thought that he had one of his best games ever against VCU, even with the poor finish. He played incredibly smart on both ends and make some really, really difficult plays. Obviously, fouls were an issue for him as well as others. Gill was taken out of the game early and never really had a chance to establish himself. And while I think Tobey should have played more in the second half, at the time I could totally see why Tony wanted Atkins in the game. Darion had a really solid night on both ends of the floor. Ultimately, I think we really could have used more from Akil and Justin. Justin made some uncharacteristically poor decisions and Akil struggled to assert himself down low (though I will point out he did a nice job when guarding Graham...it's just that Graham ended up making some really tough plays). And finally, regarding the point guard position, I was obviously disappointed with some of the decisions Malcolm made, but one has to remember that playing VCU is probably the toughest task for a point guard out there. I like London at starting at point, but that has more to do with how highly I think of him and what it allows Malcolm to do off the ball than it does with Malcolm's ability to play point.

All in all, while the loss was obviously disappointing, and it's cliche to say this, but I honestly think we'll look back at this game as a blessing. We had the chance to go against one of the better teams in the country. We were able to both show that we belong and realize that we still have a long way to go. Hopefully this game lights a fire under our guys much like the TCU game did in 2011. This team plays better when they feel like they have something to prove anyways.

Davidson

A lot of people will assume that because of Davidon's 0-3 record, they are a "bad" team. I think this is a bit off base. Yes, they lost to Milwaukee in a game they shouldn't have. But they still are a McKillop coached team, and from what I saw Saturday, they have more talent than I expected. They have a really tough OOC schedule, so they likely suffer a few more losses, but I think that this will end up being another at least solid Davidson team. No, it's nothing like the Curry teams. It's probably not even like last year's team. But by the year's end, I think this win will be viewed with a decent bit of respect. The biggest thing I took out of this game was our depth. This team is nothing like any of Bennett's other teams. I made the claim in an earlier post that I didn't think Joe's scoring average would necessarily dip a ton, despite what many assumed. I'm not going to back down from that statement just yet, as I still think Joe can average 15 per game. But this game did show that we have a ton of legitimate scoring threats. I'd say that there are at least seven guys on our team who can go for 15+ on any given night, depending on matchups and how a game is played (Harris, Mitchell, Tobey, Gill, Atkins, Anderson, and Brogdon). While Joe's scoring may not dip, I think Akil's will. This is mainly because we have so many post options that if you're even slightly off, we're gonna try something else. And let's face it, while Akil may be a more well rounded and maybe even better overall player than Tobey or Gill, he doesn't have the ability to create offense like they do (yes AG has had two poor games, but I think the first game is more of what we'll see than the other two). Obviously, Tobey was too much for Davidson to handle. It's clear that Mike is a better overall player than last year. The added weight certainly helps, but I think his time with the National Team was perhaps just as important. He's much more assertive and efficient on both ends. He's a MUCH better rebounder and is deadly with second chances. He's also stronger with the ball, finishing much more confidently than last season. Simply put, Tobey is one of the most skilled big men in the entire country. He's a weapon we have to utilize in order to be successful.

The other big time performer in the Davidson game was clearly Malcolm Brogdon. It was obvious that the shift to SG allowed him to do things he wasn't quite able to when running the point. Granted, he's been productive in all three games. He's the type of player that will find a way to be productive wherever he is on the court. But you could see that he was doing things much more naturally on Saturday alongside London. I said going into last season (before he was ruled out) that I expected him to start and average double figures. Well now it seems like that's becoming the case. Nothing he does is flashy, but he's just so damn solid. He uses his strength effectively to get good looks and finishes even in traffic. The best thing about his game thus far has obviously been his shooting. 54% from the floor, 67% from 3, 75% from the line? Yeah I think I'll take those numbers. I expect Malcolm to be one of our most consistent players this season and I think playing him at the 2 will not only allow him to play his game more naturally, but it will also create opportunities for others, especially Joe and Justin.

And finally, just a word on Joe. Personally, I'm not worried about him in the slightest. The first game was decided fairly early, and we felt the need to try out other guys instead of playing Joe for 30-35 minutes. Yes his shot was off, but given that it was the first game of the year, it wasn't exactly shocking. Then, when the lights were on, he went out and straight up balled out against VCU. Yes, we want him to finish the game better, but without his play, there would have been no game to finish. And finally Saturday, the second lowest scoring game of his career. Yes, once again, his shot was off. But he only took 4 shots. It was clear from the beginning that the way to win that game was to get looks on the inside. Joe knew this as well as anyone. For him to try and take over the game would have been counterintuitive. Joe has nothing to prove to anyone. Anyone who thinks otherwise is insane. He'll be fine. He'll make those who are raising these absurd questions look silly.

Navy/Liberty/Hampton

Now I'm not going to go ahead and preview these three teams. On the one hand, I don't know enough about them and there isn't enough relevant film out there to write anything worthwhile. On the other hand, I'm not even sure anyone would care even if I did have something to write about. So I'll leave you with a couple of things to look for in these three games.

-Dominant interior play: Few teams in the country can match up with UVA in the paint. Unsurprisingly, Navy, Liberty, and Hampton are not among those "few." We should be able to dominate these games both on the glass and in the paint. Look to see Tobey continue to play well. Also, I think you'll see AG reestablish himself as a force inside. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Akil and Darion work on getting back the the level of defense they played last year when they were both on the floor earlier in the year.

-Joe Harris finding his shot: While I've pretty much bashed those criticizing Joe, I will admit he's in a bit of a shooting slump. I expect to see him first, find better looks, and second, drain them. I think Joe will go into the SMU game with a hot hand.

-London Perrantes development at the point: Like many of you, I really like London's potential at point. He's a really heady player, with great vision and is, unsurprisingly, a great passer. I think we'll see him become more comfortable in his role and look to make himself more of a threat, while still creating opportunities for teammates.

-Improved defensive play: By far the most disappointing thing thus far has been our defense. It just hasn't been up to par with what we're used to under Bennett. Now, I think this is partly because this team is kind of under the microscope. We weren't paying nearly as much attention to previous teams this early on. But still, there have been far too many breakdowns. I think these three games give us an opportunity to find our identity, especially defensively.

Our biggest issue in our first three games has been the lack of identity. In previous years, due to our lack of depth, our identity was pretty clear. We knew who our main contributors were and we went as far as they could take us. There were pros and cons to this. The benefit was that the unit was very cohesive and had great chemistry. This meant that when they were on, they were really on (see Duke, Wisconsin, etc.). However, it also had some major disadvantages, the most significant of which was inconsistency. Because of the lack of depth, our options were limited. If things weren't working for our go to guys, we were going to lose. We couldn't really make any significant adjustments because there wasn't really anybody else to rotate in. We won when our guys played well and lost when they didn't. We couldn't have a game like Davidson. Thankfully, that's the blessing of this year's depth. While it may take some time to build chemistry and figure out what really works for us this year, ultimately, once we do that, we'll be significantly more consistent and dangerous than before. We can make real adjustments and throw a bunch of different rotations at teams. In the past, the gameplan for us was simply shut down Joe/Mike Scott and limit Akil's opportunities as best as possible. Well now, the gameplan is a whole heck of a lot more complicated. You play to stop Joe, Tobey makes a living inside. You gameplan to limit post touches, Brogdon and Harris kill you from the outside. Et cetera. So while we haven't exactly looked like world beaters thus far, I think the most important thing to remember about this team is our potential in March. Once it all comes together, we are going to be really damn good.

Hopefully these three games will allow us to improve upon our chemistry and build some momentum going into the holiday tournament in Texas.  For the sake of the program, I think we really need to win that. If we take care of business down there, that should set the stage for another Top 25 matchup in JPJ against the Wisconsin Badgers. I'll obviously have some sort of a primer for that game when the time comes, but I will say that I'm much more confident about that game than I was going into VCU.

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