SMU Preview

I think it's safe to assume that most UVA fans would rather spend their Thanksgiving weekends watching their team play in Orlando, Atlantis, Maui, Fullerton, Puerto Rico, Cancun, heck, even Charleston than in Corpus Christi against a seemingly weak field. Well, while there are certainly better tournaments out there, I think this one might end up being better than it seems right now. One of the main reasons I feel this way is because I think that SMU is a quality opponent. Larry Brown didn't come to Dallas to mess around. He's involved in the process of building the Mustangs into a legitimate program. While I think the best is yet to come for SMU, this year's team is certainly dangerous. In a lot of ways, with the large exception of style of play, this SMU team is actually pretty similar to Virginia. They're big. They're deep. They're still trying to figure out which combinations work best. They're obviously well coached.

So while SMU might not be a big name program or might not have a ranking next to their name, at the end of the year, I really think we'll look back on them as a "quality opponent." I think it's safe to assume they'll finish well within the RPI Top 100, and maybe even Top 50 if things really start to groove.

So let's look at their lineup. While the Mustangs return 4 starters from last year's squad, they really have a "new look." Part of the reason for this is because of who they added in the offseason. Along with the addition of 5 star, McDonald's All American guard Keith Frazier, SMU welcomes PG Nic Moore, a transfer from Illinois State, JUCO transfer Yanick Moreira, along with three other freshmen. Because of these new additions, guys who played a big role for SMU last year have seen their roles diminish a bit. On account of this, they're a much deeper, more balanced unit than last year's 15-17 team.


PG: Nic Moore 5'9 170lbs

SEASON	TEAM	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2013-14	SMU	31.2	4.3-8.0	.542	2.5-4.7	.536	1.7-2.2	.769	3.0	5.3	0.0	1.7	1.8	2.8	12.8

Likely one of the best guards we'll face all year. He definitely has the potential to take a game over if he's feeling it. quick first step. Likes to make something happen quickly, either for himself or a teammate. This can lead to some quick-hitter opportunities, but it also leads to some forced shots and turnovers. Good shooter. Creates for himself, but can also come off screens and get his shot off quick. He might use his quickness to try and get Perrantes in some foul trouble. They'll set a lot of screens for him.

Bottom line: their offense really revolves around him. Even though their specialty is in the paint, I don't see them winning many games without him playing well. While there are more experienced guys who have been around the program longer, Moore is really their leader, at least on the court. He'll be a very tough assignment.

SG: Nick Russell 6'4 210

SEASON	TEAM	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2013-14	SMU	29.8	2.7-6.5	.410	0.7-2.7	.250	2.7-3.2	.842	3.7	3.5	0.3	1.0	3.0	1.7	8.7

One of just two seniors, Russell transferred from Kansas State and started last year, leading the team in scoring alongside Jalen Jones. Where he's most dangerous is on the break, or cutting off a screen towards the basket.Doesn't have great lateral quickness on defense, but uses his size to make up for some of that, and is actually a fairly solid defender. Not a great shooter, but certainly capable if you leave him open. Was the team's leading scorer last season, but seems to have seen his role diminish a bit with SMU's offseason additions. I think he'll likely get the assignment of covering Harris for most of the game. His role is essentially to use his experience to settle down this young team and provide steady play at both ends.

SG: Ryan Manuel 6'4 185lbs

SEASON	TEAM	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2013-14	SMU	22.0	1.7-3.0	.556	0.2-0.2	1.000	2.0-3.0	.667	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.8	2.3	2.0	5.5

Long on defense, but not very quick laterally. Also, like Russell, he has seen his production drop with the added depth. Will see some minutes at point as well when Moore is out of the game (Virginia will look to capitalize here). Takes most of his shots driving to the basket. His role seems to be one of protecting the ball and limiting mistakes. He isn't really asked to produce much offensively, but as his numbers from last year show, he's capable to do some damage if UVA lets its guard down. 

PF: Markus Kennedy 6'9 245lbs

SEASON	TEAM	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2013-14	SMU	19.0	3.3-6.8	.488	0.0-0.0	.000	2.5-4.2	.600	4.5	1.0	1.2	1.0	1.8	1.7	9.2

Villanova transfer. Big, strong, physical in the mold of Richard Howell. Active on the glass, strong with the ball in the post, and can really finish with contact. Like Howell, you just have to prevent him from getting into a rhythm. Can't let him get comfortable in the paint or else he could dominate. I think he's more physical and persistent than he is talented, so if Mitchell and Atkins play solid defense, they can potentially frustrate him.

C: Yanick Moreira 6'11 220lbs

SEASON	TEAM	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2013-14	SMU	20.0	4.2-7.5	.556	0.0-0.0	.000	3.3-4.5	.741	7.0	0.5	1.3	0.2	1.7	1.8	11.7

Likely a future NBA player. Very polished offensively. Good rebounder and defender. Finishes very well around the rim. Want to force him left. If you give him a chance to use his right, he's gonna make it. It'll be interesting to see him play some legitimate size. He has been more or less dominant thus far, but most have his opponents have simply been overmatched.

Bench:
SG: Keith Frazier 6'5 190 Freshman
Obviously a highly talented player, as most 5 star recruits are. That said, he's still struggling to find his role on this deep team. The one thing Virginia will look to prevent is him going off from deep. Right now, that's really his biggest asset, though he's 2-13 in the past three games after a 4-9 start. Turnovers are an issue. I think there's a good chance he'll struggle against the size and strength of UVA's guards, particularly Brogdon and Anderson.

C: Cannen Cunningham 6'10 225
Very solid upside, but struggles to see playing time because of foul trouble and the talent of the other SMU bigs. Personally, on film, I think he deserves more run, but again, sometimes Brown is forced to sit him because of fouls. Virginia should look to make that happen tonight. Still, even though he only sees a few minutes in a game, those minutes are usually productive ones. He has been very efficient thus far.

PF: Ben Moore 6'8 Freshman
Long, thin, and athletic but still seems to be developing both physically and skill wise. There's a little bit of Darion in his game. His production tends to come from others creating opportunities for him rather than him taking matters into his own hands. Bright upside, but I wouldn't expect too much from the freshman.

F:Shawn Williams 6'7 230
Starts most games, but typically gets bench minutes. Another big that provides some nice depth on both ends. Fairly consistent in his production. Not likely to go off, but is usually good for a few shots in the paint and some rebounds.

SF: Sterling Brown 6'6 Freshman

As a team, they really like to slash off screens and penetrate into the lane. Ideally they'd like to get quick hitters in transition, but I don't think they'll get many of those against Virginia. I expect UVA to make it a game decided in the halfcourt. This isn't all bad for SMU, though, as they have very good size and talent in the frontcourt. While they might rather run, they're certainly capable playing a halfcourt game on both ends of the floor. As I've mentioned, they're big, but I still think Virginian can outrebound them. The activity of guys like Mitchell and Atkins is likely something they haven't seen before. Thus far, they've gotten most of their rebounds simply because of their size advantages. They won't have that luxury tonight, and I think UVA is a much more disciplined team on the glass. I think the biggest factors in this game is how Virginia handles Nic Moore and how SMU defends. Even if Moore isn't scoring a ton or shooting particularly well, he is still dangerous to UVA's gameplan. Especially with the new foul rules, Virginia is vulnerable to quick guards like Moore. If he can penetrate and break down the packline, it will give bigs like Moreira and Kennedy more room to operate.

As far as SMU's defense, they have been solid thus far, but they haven't seen a team as deep as talented as Virginia's yet. I don't expect them to be overwhelmed, but it will be interesting to see how their depth stacks up against Virginia's. Ulimately, while both teams are certainly deep, I think UVA's depth is a little more developed than SMU's. Remember, they're a really young team that will rely on a couple of key freshmen and sophomores. 

Matchups:
London Perrantes 6'1 189 - Nic Moore 5'9 170
-Obviously an important matchup. Moore is a very tough assignment for the freshman Perrantes. The key for London will be to keep Moore in front of him. If he drains a couple shots over the top, there's not much you can do about it, but you just cannot let him penetrate. If that happens it will allow SMU's bigs to go to work, which means nothing but bad news for Virginia. London should be able to play his game offensively. Moore plays good fundamental defense but isn't exactly Briante Weber. London shouldn't have much trouble protecting the ball and creating opportunities for his teammates.

Malcolm Brogdon 6'5 217 - Ryan Manuel 6'4 185
-This matchup is heavily in Virginia's favor. Manuel is a solid player, but Brogdon is likely a bit much for him to handle. I'd look for Malcolm to play aggressively and try and get to the rim. Manuel simply isn't quick or strong enough to provide much resistance.

Joe Harris 6'6 225 - Nick Russell 6'4 210
-Russell will do his best to slow down a suddenly hot Joe Harris. If Joe's shot is like it was on Tuesday, there's nothing Russell can really do. I think Joe will try and make Russell play for the deep ball, and use some shotfakes to get to the rim. Ultimately, even Joe would rather his shots come inside than out. Given SMU's frontcourt, I think Joe will realize he needs to create for himself a bit to take some of the pressure off guys like Tobey and Gill. Look for him and Brogdon to be assertive with the ball in their hands. On the other end, Russell is a good matchup for Joe. I think he'll be able to find some points within the flow of the game, but I don't expect him to go off or anything. I expect Joe to eliminate the drive, maybe help a bit on Moore, and make Russell prove he can knock shots down.

Akil Mitchell 6'8 235 - Markus Kennedy 6'9 245
-Akil has yet to play to his potential this season. While he has had good games, we're still looking for a complete performance like he had so many of last year, which led to his All ACC nomination. I want to see him find his groove defensively, and I think this is a great chance for him to make a statement. Kennedy will provide a challenge for Mitchell on both ends of the floor. On offense, he'll try and use his strength to bully Akil and draw some fouls. On defense, he'll make Akil earn his shots and try and prevent the easy ones he has a knack for finding. This will be a tough test for Mitchell, but he's had plenty of those before. Hopefully, his experience shows.

Mike Tobey 6'11 253 - Yanick Moreira 6'11 220

Fun matchup of two really talented, but different bigs. Both players are very dangerous offensively. They can both score in a number of ways. Moreira is more athletic, where Tobey is more polished/skilled. I anticipate that Mike is excited to be able to show off the work he's done in the weightroom against a thinner opponent. Usually, he's on the wrong end of a strength disadvantage, but this time, he'll be the one who will try to impose his size on Moreira. Mike struggled last time out against Hampton, so I expect to see him play with a fire and reclaim his status as one of the most talented bigs in the country. He'll need to play his best on defense, however, as Moreira too will be looking to impress whatever scouts may be watching/in attendance. The key here will be making Yanick work. His athleticism leads him to get a bunch of easy looks. If that happens, Virginia will be in trouble. Tobey must use his size and experience playing quality bigs to make sure that if Moreira is gonna score, he's going to have to earn it.

As far as the bench goes, while both teams will go about 9 deep, there are a few key guys who could make real impacts on the game. For Virginia, look for Anthony Gill (6'8 235) and Darion Atkins (6'8 230) to continue their solid play off the bench. Gill won't have as much of a strength advantage as he's used to, but he's still good enough to play well regardless. Atkins has the opportunity to frustrate SMU's bigs on both ends and make them earn their shots and rebounds. He's had a positive impact in just about every game thus far, and I expect more of the same from Darion tonight. The other main guy off the bench for UVA will be Justin Anderson. I really think he could be the difference, especially if he plays like he did Tuesday. Simply put, while SMU is very deep, they don't have a Justin Anderson. He's too big for their guards, and too athletic for their bigs. Look for him to make himself known on both ends.

While Shawn Williams might start, for all intents and purposes, it's best to consider Markus Kennedy the starting PF for SMU. The other main contributors off the bench for the Mustangs are Keith Frazier, Ben Moore, Cannen Cunningham, and Sterling Brown. The freshmen Frazier and Moore are the biggest concerns. Ultimately, however, if SMU is going to win this game, I think it will be because of the play of Nic Moore, Yanick Moreira, Nick Russell, and Markus Kennedy. They'll need their bench to be solid, but realistically, I don't think they can rely on those guys the same way Virginia can with their bench.

While SMU is a very good team, capable of beating many teams, this is a game Virginia should be expected to win. Bennett's team should be able to dictate the pace and frustrate the Mustangs. UVA should be much more prepared for anything SMU can throw its way, while SMU will have to make some significant adjustments. That said, if guys like Nic Moore, Markus Kennedy, and Yanick Moreira play well, SMU will definitely have a chance to win. Virginia has come out sluggish the past couple of games before eventually pulling away. They will not be able to afford that effort tonight. If UVA plays close to their abilities, there won't be much SMU can do about it, outside of shooting uncharacteristically well from the outside. But if Virginia struggles, Larry Brown & Co. will make the Hoos pay.

All in all, while it may not be a marquis matchup like some of the ones going on at Disney or Atlantis, this should still be a really entertaining game between two teams expected to be dancing in March.

VCU/Davidson Recap, Navy/Liberty/Hampton Preview:

VCU

I don't want to spend a ton of time on the VCU game. I could go and break down every little aspect of the game, and try and explain why the outcome was what it was, but honestly it's just probably better not to. VCU is a really good team. It was a terrible matchup for us. Yet, we went out there and competed. We played our game and damn near came out with a win. Yes, like pretty much every other Virginia fan, if you had told me ahead of time that VCU would only score in the 50s, I would have taken that to meant that UVA won. But credit VCU for finding a way to win, even when UVA took them out of their comfort zone. Virginia did everything it needed to do to win except finish. I try and make sure I never get ahead of myself during games. I know better than to assume victory before the clock reads zero. But I have to admit, I really liked where Virginia stood up 55-49 with under 3 minutes left. Then Juvonte Reddic slammed home a putback dunk after a missed jumper, immediately causing me to regret ever feeling even somewhat comfortable. As soon as that play happened, I thought back to the UNC game in 2012. While the situation was different, the feeling was painfully similar. Up 1 with 7 minutes left, Henson absolutely posterized Joe Harris off an inbounds play with a left handed slam, just like Reddic's. While both dunks were merely two points for each team, and Virginia had many more opportunities afterwards to erase the memory of the plays, they represent two huge bursts of momentum for UNC and VCU. Following Reddic's dunk, we still held a 4 point lead with 2 minutes remaining in the game. That may not seem like much, but in the context of that game, it was pretty substantial. The problem was, Reddic's dunk created a brand new game, in a way. One of the VCU assistants hit the nail on the head when he said following the game that UVA imposed its style on the game for 37 minutes, but the last three minutes were HAVOC.

Following that Reddic dunk, Joe got called for a charge, Burgess drilled a three, Joe missed a jumper, Justin committed an awful turnover, and Graham hit the floater to give the Rams the lead. We were short on timeouts (I believe we only had two remaining at the time), but I think we really should have used one if not following Reddic's dunk, then certainly following the three to put VCU within one. We ended up sitting on a timeout anyways.

As far as individual performances in that game go, for all the heat Joe has taken thus far in the year (which, by the way, is absolutely ridiculous), I thought that he had one of his best games ever against VCU, even with the poor finish. He played incredibly smart on both ends and make some really, really difficult plays. Obviously, fouls were an issue for him as well as others. Gill was taken out of the game early and never really had a chance to establish himself. And while I think Tobey should have played more in the second half, at the time I could totally see why Tony wanted Atkins in the game. Darion had a really solid night on both ends of the floor. Ultimately, I think we really could have used more from Akil and Justin. Justin made some uncharacteristically poor decisions and Akil struggled to assert himself down low (though I will point out he did a nice job when guarding Graham...it's just that Graham ended up making some really tough plays). And finally, regarding the point guard position, I was obviously disappointed with some of the decisions Malcolm made, but one has to remember that playing VCU is probably the toughest task for a point guard out there. I like London at starting at point, but that has more to do with how highly I think of him and what it allows Malcolm to do off the ball than it does with Malcolm's ability to play point.

All in all, while the loss was obviously disappointing, and it's cliche to say this, but I honestly think we'll look back at this game as a blessing. We had the chance to go against one of the better teams in the country. We were able to both show that we belong and realize that we still have a long way to go. Hopefully this game lights a fire under our guys much like the TCU game did in 2011. This team plays better when they feel like they have something to prove anyways.

Davidson

A lot of people will assume that because of Davidon's 0-3 record, they are a "bad" team. I think this is a bit off base. Yes, they lost to Milwaukee in a game they shouldn't have. But they still are a McKillop coached team, and from what I saw Saturday, they have more talent than I expected. They have a really tough OOC schedule, so they likely suffer a few more losses, but I think that this will end up being another at least solid Davidson team. No, it's nothing like the Curry teams. It's probably not even like last year's team. But by the year's end, I think this win will be viewed with a decent bit of respect. The biggest thing I took out of this game was our depth. This team is nothing like any of Bennett's other teams. I made the claim in an earlier post that I didn't think Joe's scoring average would necessarily dip a ton, despite what many assumed. I'm not going to back down from that statement just yet, as I still think Joe can average 15 per game. But this game did show that we have a ton of legitimate scoring threats. I'd say that there are at least seven guys on our team who can go for 15+ on any given night, depending on matchups and how a game is played (Harris, Mitchell, Tobey, Gill, Atkins, Anderson, and Brogdon). While Joe's scoring may not dip, I think Akil's will. This is mainly because we have so many post options that if you're even slightly off, we're gonna try something else. And let's face it, while Akil may be a more well rounded and maybe even better overall player than Tobey or Gill, he doesn't have the ability to create offense like they do (yes AG has had two poor games, but I think the first game is more of what we'll see than the other two). Obviously, Tobey was too much for Davidson to handle. It's clear that Mike is a better overall player than last year. The added weight certainly helps, but I think his time with the National Team was perhaps just as important. He's much more assertive and efficient on both ends. He's a MUCH better rebounder and is deadly with second chances. He's also stronger with the ball, finishing much more confidently than last season. Simply put, Tobey is one of the most skilled big men in the entire country. He's a weapon we have to utilize in order to be successful.

The other big time performer in the Davidson game was clearly Malcolm Brogdon. It was obvious that the shift to SG allowed him to do things he wasn't quite able to when running the point. Granted, he's been productive in all three games. He's the type of player that will find a way to be productive wherever he is on the court. But you could see that he was doing things much more naturally on Saturday alongside London. I said going into last season (before he was ruled out) that I expected him to start and average double figures. Well now it seems like that's becoming the case. Nothing he does is flashy, but he's just so damn solid. He uses his strength effectively to get good looks and finishes even in traffic. The best thing about his game thus far has obviously been his shooting. 54% from the floor, 67% from 3, 75% from the line? Yeah I think I'll take those numbers. I expect Malcolm to be one of our most consistent players this season and I think playing him at the 2 will not only allow him to play his game more naturally, but it will also create opportunities for others, especially Joe and Justin.

And finally, just a word on Joe. Personally, I'm not worried about him in the slightest. The first game was decided fairly early, and we felt the need to try out other guys instead of playing Joe for 30-35 minutes. Yes his shot was off, but given that it was the first game of the year, it wasn't exactly shocking. Then, when the lights were on, he went out and straight up balled out against VCU. Yes, we want him to finish the game better, but without his play, there would have been no game to finish. And finally Saturday, the second lowest scoring game of his career. Yes, once again, his shot was off. But he only took 4 shots. It was clear from the beginning that the way to win that game was to get looks on the inside. Joe knew this as well as anyone. For him to try and take over the game would have been counterintuitive. Joe has nothing to prove to anyone. Anyone who thinks otherwise is insane. He'll be fine. He'll make those who are raising these absurd questions look silly.

Navy/Liberty/Hampton

Now I'm not going to go ahead and preview these three teams. On the one hand, I don't know enough about them and there isn't enough relevant film out there to write anything worthwhile. On the other hand, I'm not even sure anyone would care even if I did have something to write about. So I'll leave you with a couple of things to look for in these three games.

-Dominant interior play: Few teams in the country can match up with UVA in the paint. Unsurprisingly, Navy, Liberty, and Hampton are not among those "few." We should be able to dominate these games both on the glass and in the paint. Look to see Tobey continue to play well. Also, I think you'll see AG reestablish himself as a force inside. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Akil and Darion work on getting back the the level of defense they played last year when they were both on the floor earlier in the year.

-Joe Harris finding his shot: While I've pretty much bashed those criticizing Joe, I will admit he's in a bit of a shooting slump. I expect to see him first, find better looks, and second, drain them. I think Joe will go into the SMU game with a hot hand.

-London Perrantes development at the point: Like many of you, I really like London's potential at point. He's a really heady player, with great vision and is, unsurprisingly, a great passer. I think we'll see him become more comfortable in his role and look to make himself more of a threat, while still creating opportunities for teammates.

-Improved defensive play: By far the most disappointing thing thus far has been our defense. It just hasn't been up to par with what we're used to under Bennett. Now, I think this is partly because this team is kind of under the microscope. We weren't paying nearly as much attention to previous teams this early on. But still, there have been far too many breakdowns. I think these three games give us an opportunity to find our identity, especially defensively.

Our biggest issue in our first three games has been the lack of identity. In previous years, due to our lack of depth, our identity was pretty clear. We knew who our main contributors were and we went as far as they could take us. There were pros and cons to this. The benefit was that the unit was very cohesive and had great chemistry. This meant that when they were on, they were really on (see Duke, Wisconsin, etc.). However, it also had some major disadvantages, the most significant of which was inconsistency. Because of the lack of depth, our options were limited. If things weren't working for our go to guys, we were going to lose. We couldn't really make any significant adjustments because there wasn't really anybody else to rotate in. We won when our guys played well and lost when they didn't. We couldn't have a game like Davidson. Thankfully, that's the blessing of this year's depth. While it may take some time to build chemistry and figure out what really works for us this year, ultimately, once we do that, we'll be significantly more consistent and dangerous than before. We can make real adjustments and throw a bunch of different rotations at teams. In the past, the gameplan for us was simply shut down Joe/Mike Scott and limit Akil's opportunities as best as possible. Well now, the gameplan is a whole heck of a lot more complicated. You play to stop Joe, Tobey makes a living inside. You gameplan to limit post touches, Brogdon and Harris kill you from the outside. Et cetera. So while we haven't exactly looked like world beaters thus far, I think the most important thing to remember about this team is our potential in March. Once it all comes together, we are going to be really damn good.

Hopefully these three games will allow us to improve upon our chemistry and build some momentum going into the holiday tournament in Texas.  For the sake of the program, I think we really need to win that. If we take care of business down there, that should set the stage for another Top 25 matchup in JPJ against the Wisconsin Badgers. I'll obviously have some sort of a primer for that game when the time comes, but I will say that I'm much more confident about that game than I was going into VCU.

2013-2014 Roster Breakdown

ROSTER BREAKDOWN:

Starting Lineup-
G: Malcolm Brogdon 6'5  217  RS-So
G: Joe Harris              6'6  225  Sr
G: Justin Anderson    6'6   227  So
F: Akil Mitchell         6'8   235  Sr
F: Anthony Gill         6'8   230  RS-So


Guards-
-Malcolm Brogdon: About as big, physical, and strong of a PG you'll find just about anywhere. Many fans question his fit as a true point guard, but I'll reiterate what plenty have said before: under Tony Bennett, there really is not that much difference between the 1 and 3 spots. Rather, Tony looks for certain qualities in each of his guards. Obviously for a coach like Bennett, fundamentals are paramount, so you have to be able to have a strong enough handle to take care of the basketball and you have to be competent on defense. Malcolm is fine on both of those fronts. While his handle was not his strong suit as a freshman, I don't think anyone saw him as a real liability with the ball in his hands. At his worst, he looked like a typical freshman guard. He'll never be a guy who will use his handle to break a defender down, and that's fine. From what I've heard, Malcolm's handle has improved dramatically thanks to the work he put in during his redshirt year. It won't be flashy, but I'm willing to bet he'll be very strong with the ball and won't cough it up often. As far as his defense, I was actually more impressed than some others by how he played defensively his first year. He did a very good job on Terrell Stoglin and Nick Faust when called upon, and those are guys who on paper should be matchup problems. I'm sure there will be a few guys Malcolm will have troubles staying with, but overall, I expect him to defend well. The rest of his game is pretty much where he excels. He can drive, overpower smaller guards, post up, move the ball around, and is a capable shooter when he has a look. I could go on, but what I really expect to see from Malcolm this year is solid, steady play. Given the rest of our roster, we don't need a PG who can go out and win games by himself (ala Sean Singletary). Instead, what we need at point is a guy who can limit mistakes, make good decisions, and create opportunities for the loads of surrounding talented players, and it seems like Malcolm's the right guy for the job.
Brogdon VSTV Clip

-Joe Harris: Not too much needs to be said here. He's probably the best shooter in the country if you interpret "shooter" broadly and not just as a 3 pt specialist. Regardless of where he is on the floor, he can find shots and make them. Each year I continue to be surprised at just how big he is. He's the same size as Justin Anderson, and honestly, whenever I see them together Joe may even seem a bit bigger. People like to knock on his athleticism, which I think is just silly. Is he Justin? No. But watch him burn players on Duke, UNC, NCST, etc. and tell me he's unathletic. I think the biggest thing for Joe this year is his supporting cast. Most fans assume that Joe's production must necessarily drop due to the amount of depth and talent around him. While that does make sense, I still think Joe will score just as much if not more so than last year. I feel this way because last year, he had very limited help. Most of the looks he got he created for himself. When you're playing along a PG and SG who realistically are not threats to score, a team can afford to pay more attention to you. This is what we really saw a lot of after the Duke game. Teams keyed in on Harris and made guys like Evans and Jesperson go out and make them pay for it. They did not. This year will be different. Joe will be surrounded be viable offensive weapons. Opposing defenses won't be able to sag off other guys to help with Joe. If they do, they'll pay for it. Ultimately, I think this will have the greatest effect on Joe's efficiency. I think he'll get better looks and have to work less to get them. And if you're giving him good looks, you're cooked.


Harris VSTV Clip

-Justin Anderson: By the end of last year, as Harris struggled, Justin emerged as the teams best player. His statline against Iowa was just silly.

NIT - QUARTERFINAL                                                                                                                                                                                           FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
Wed 3/27	vs (6) IOWA	L 75-64	35	6-14	.429	5-8	.625	7-8	.875	6	2	5	3	2	4	24

Now, I think one of the most interesting questions going into this season is what exactly will be Justin's role? It's tough to say for sure, but there's one thing that's a given: he'll have a huge impact on our success. He's just the type of player that can make a difference between winning and losing, even if it doesn't show up on the statsheet. I think his on ball and packline defense will take a leap forward this year. He'll likely get the toughest assignment each night unless it's a tiny guard or a huge center. Anything in between is right in his wheelhouse. I also expect his shooting to improve from last year. He struggled hitting outside shots early on in the year, but rebounded from an 0-9 start to shoot 36% the rest of the way. I don't think he'll ever be a 40-45% guy, but if he can consistently hit 35-40% of his shots from range, it will help the team greatly. He also showed a very solid midrange game last year, which will only get better. And finally, my favorite part of Justin's game: blocks and dunks. There will be lots of them.

Anderson/Nolte VSTV Clip

-London Perrantes: I'm a really big fan of London's skillset. Over the summer, I watched 4-5 full game tapes and came away very impressed. He's a leader on the floor. He can shoot the ball from range. He has great touch on his passes. But the thing that stands out the most is his vision/decision making. London always seems to be hyperaware of what's happening on the court at any given time. He can read the defense and predict what they're going to do. He always seems like he's one step ahead of the defenders. These skills make him a great fit for this year's team, as he could distribute and make his teammates better. Here are some blurbs from those who followed him on the recruiting trail:

 "...Perrantes, who carved up his opponents with the precision of a physican's scalpel. Time and again, the 6-foot-1, 185 pound passing phenom made not only great decisions off ball screens delivered to his doorstep or in the open floor, but decisions that most others would have never seen seen much less had the skill to execute.

In that respect, Perrantes reminds a lot of former ASU point guard Derek Glasser, who always got the ball to the right spot and never did it riskily. Few high school court generals have the playmaking capability of Perrantes. Even fewer feel no need to showboat or be risk tolerant in order to provide moments of flair.

In an era of unaccomplished players showcasing swagger while ignorant to their mediocrity, Perrantes is genuinely really good at something and completely unaffected by it, at least outwardly. At the same time, he knows he's made real strides with his game and that's where his pleasure is derived. "

"A player who was surprisingly omitted from the all-star games was London Perrantes. The Crespi floor general played well in an environment that breeds selfishness. Perrantes played his game, which is centered on making his teammates better and playing with patience and poise."

I think those speak well about what we can expect from London.




-Teven Jones: For whatever reason, people seem to forget about Teven. Maybe it's because of Brogdon's hype, or the arrival of Perrantes and Hall, but I think fans may be overlooking Jones. Granted, he had his ups and downs, but for the most part, I think it's fair to say he made the most of a less than ideal situation. At times he was thrown into the fire. Other times he seemed to be in Bennett's doghouse. Credit Teven for sticking it out and coming back, despite the fact that every fan, present company included, wondered aloud whether he might be our next player to jump ship. I think this speaks to his "fire." Like Jontel Evans, Jones has a bit of that football, chip on the shoulder mentality. On top of that, I think that he actually has more potential than people realize. Defensively, if it all comes together for him, he could be a menace. Not only is he lightning quick with both his hands and feet, but he has an incredibly long wingspan for someone his size. This was likely one of the reasons why programs such as Clemson expressed interest in him as a defensive back. If the light comes on, he could be a terrific defensive player. Teven actually has surprisingly solid offensive potential as well. I don't think he'll be a double digit scorer, but he showed the ability to protect the ball, run the offense, and knock down shots when needed. If he keeps improving, he'll find himself a role on this team. His athleticism and energy are traits that few possess.

-Devon Hall: Speaking of forgotten men, remember when Devon reclassified to the class of 2013 committed last summer? It was a huge freaking deal. He was essentially the long awaited savior PG that the Bennett "haters" had used as proof for Tony's "recruiting deficiencies." Well, thanks to the reclassification and a poor summer on the AAU circuit, Devon saw his once elite ranking plummet. Personally I have some issues with how they weighted his AAU play (where I believe he struggled because of the role Boo Williams had him in) against his HS play (where he played brilliantly), but at the end of the day, rankings are simply rankings (see Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell). All that said, while I think that Devon has All-ACC talent, it might take him some adjusting. If we really needed to have him play a serious role this year, I think he would do fine, with some expected freshman struggles early on. But the fact is, given our depth, we can ease him in and let him develop naturally. Ultimately I think this will work out for the best. He, like Malcolm is a big PG, but unlike Malcolm, he's much more of a natural at the position. While is a capable shooter, he was once so highly regarded because he was one of the best passers in the country. Kendall Marshall may seem like a lazy comparison given the fact that they're both oversized, lefty, pass-first PGs from VA, but I think it's actually pretty damn spot on. There are differences but if you want to imagine Devon's style of play, that's a good place to start. The key for him, however will be on defense. He has potential on that end, but it will take a lot of hard work and practice.


Forwards/Centers-

-Akil Mitchell- Obviously, Akil's career has been a "surprise." But only when you consider his recruitment. While he was very raw, when he played during his first year, you could tell that he had potential. He never looked like someone who was overmatched by this level of competition. Rather, he seemed like someone who, one he fine-tuned his game, could make a big impact in the league. Well, he's done just that. If I could point to a specific moment where we as fans realized that he might turn out to be more than expected, I think it would be the Duke game at Cameron his first year. He only had 2 points, but they were a loud two points (a vicious slam in transition). But overall he looked like he belonged in his league. He certainly began to prove that his second year. Once again, the Duke game stood out. I was basically right behind the Virginia bench during that game at Cameron. And again, not all that impressive on the statline, but still, he made a significant impact in the game. Fast forward to last year, and surprisingly (yet also somehow completely unsurprisingly) Akil stepped his game up to another level. Most significantly, he became pretty much the best post defender in the ACC. It didn't matter who he was facing; he gave them hell. His most amazing improvement, though, was offensively. From his Sophomore to Junior years, Mitchell went from an average of 4.1 points per game to 13.1. Part on that was due to a significant improvement of his skillset, but perhaps the most impressive way Akil got better was mentally. Akil, better than anyone in the league, knew how to get himself easy buckets. I haven't checked any stats on this (I'm not sure these stats even exist), but I'd be willing to bet he led the ACC in dunks. Some may attribute this to lucky bounces. They couldn't be more wrong. What Akil does is undeniably a skill. He knows where to be and when. He's lethal on rolling of screens, which is where he got most of these dunks. From what we have heard during the offseason, it sounds like we should expect Akil to keep getting better....

"During my drop-in at the Nike Big Man Skills Academy in New Jersey this summer, I thought Mitchell looked just as good, if not better, than bigger pro prospects Willie-Cauley Stein (of Kentucky) and Mitch McGary (of Michigan)." -Luke Winn, SI.com (aka the best hoops writer in the business)




-Anthony Gill: HYPE HYPE HYPE HYPE. 
But seriously, this is the problem with transfers. Whether they're actually good or not, fans will treat them as if they're the second coming of Christ. Do I think the Gill-hype reached somewhat ridiculous levels? Yeah. Is it warranted? From what we've all heard, probably.

I remember talking with a couple of players last summer, after AG had just transferred from South Carolina. While I don't remember their exact words, I do remember how highly they praised him. I more or less interpreted their praise as he was one of if not the best player on the team at the time.

Now that phrase soon became common knowledge, as it seems a number of different sources were saying the same things. While I completely believe what was said to be true, I don't want fans to get the wrong impression. I can imagine a scenario where Gill is the "best" player on the team without the fans realizing it. I'm absolutely stoked to have him and think he will make a HUGE immediate impact, but it might not necessarily translate to big stats. Don't get me wrong, I expect many double-doubles from AG. But the hype has gotten to a point where I think people feel he'll be putting up 20ppg, which just isn't likely to happen. AG will probably have more impact in the win column than any statistical category. 

AG HS Highlights

-Darion Atkins: Once again, we have someone who the fanbase has continually overlooked. Now, in this case, you can't really blame that much given the ridiculous depth of the frontcourt and Darion's injury last season. But at the same time, it's important to remember that before injuring his shin last year, Atkins was playing at essentially an elite level. He was effective on both ends and had shown clear improvement from his first year. His breakout game came against Wisconsin on the road, where he went for 14 and 7. Those numbers are very good, but they don't really tell just how well he played in that game. He was FANTASTIC. And it wasn't a fluke, either. He was playing very good basketball up until he went down with a stress reaction in his shin. For all intents and purposes, that ended his season. It sounds like he's back to 100%. If that's true, then I expect him to play a large role this year. Even though he has been overlooked by many, it's clear that he and Akil had a certain rapport together, that is especially obvious on the defensive end. Darion should be able to use his length and athleticism to frustrate not only his own man, but also whomever he ends up double teaming. I would call Darion our "sleeper" for the year. Personally, I'd start him over Gill because with a frontcourt of Anderson, Mitchell, and Atkins, you have easily the best defensive frontcourt in the nation. But whatever Darion's role ends up being, I expect him to do well. He's been solid his first two years and he has nowhere to go but up.



-Mike Tobey: Possibly the most talented/skilled big Virginia has had in decades. Not much was known about him when he committed, but he quickly made a name for himself on the AAU circuit. After a while, Mike went from unknown to potential future pro. After committing to UVA, Tobey blew up. This was partially due to a huge summer on the AAU circuit, but it also had to do with just his overall talent and potential. After a little while, it became clear that we had stolen Tobey before his name really had gotten out there. While he took some time to get used to the college game, it was obvious from the beginning that Mike possessed a certain, unique skillset that would allow him to be very productive and successful. Eventually, this skillset made him an effective player in league action and eventually earned himself a spot on the U19 National team. While he did not play quite as many minutes as others, he used the experience to better himself, as the stiff competition made him acutely aware of what it takes to become a great player. I think you'll see this experience payoff throughout the course of this season and beyond.



-Evan Nolte: If there was going to be an "odd man out" this season, it might very well be Evan Nolte. Now, this has little to do with his ability or potential. While many fans remember his late season struggles, one must not forget how important he was to the teams success early on in the year. I expect Evan to play a significant role this year simply because of his ability to knock down outside shots. It will be interesting to see how he fits into the team going forward. Bennett had mentioned how they play to work him into the SF role a bit more, but honestly, I see him as a better fit in the post. Either way, we'll need him to knock down outside shots.




Well, there's the breakdown. Be sure to comment or tweet @EmbracePaceUVA.

Go Hoos!