Notre Dame Preview

I think just about every Virginia fan feels the same way heading into this game against Notre Dame. We can't help but look forward to the crucial matchup against Pittsburgh on Sunday, but fully realize that getting out of Notre Dame with a win is no sure thing. Heck, with the way the weather is acting up over there, maybe we should just be focused on getting out of there period! Anyways, I think it is safe to say two things about this game: this is a game Virginia should win; and this is a game Virginia could lose. Now, I know many of you say that any game is a game that UVA could lose, and while I understand that, especially with the memories of ODU and Delaware just a season ago, I'm not sure I totally buy into it with this team. For example, there was no way we were going to lose to Virginia Tech at home. And while anything is possible on the road, I don't think there's any way we can lose to them in Blacksburg, either. They simply just don't have the horses (or jockey/trainer, but that's another story).

However, tonight is definitely a game Virginia could lose. For all of Notre Dame's struggles, they still have a talented starting five and a great, though criticized, coach. Even without Jerian Grant, the Irish are a team that poses a threat. Right now, they might pose an even bigger one, as they realize that they are a team that is on the ropes. They just finished a tough stretch, where they played four out of 5 on the road, only winning the one in South Bend against Virginia Tech. Now, they return to Purcell Pavilion understanding that if they don't get a win tonight, things will likely only get worse and worse the rest of the season.

So, despite the fact that tonight a contest Virginia could lose, it's one that they really have no business doing so. I don't think I'd be going out on a limb if I said that fewer than 5 teams in the country have been more impressive than UVA since the start of conference play. Yesterday, ESPN posted this little nugget, providing evidence in support of Virginia's hot streak. And while you can question the validity of BPI all you want, I think it does a good job of showing how strong a team is at a given moment. So with this in mind, the way Tony Bennett's squad is playing, they should expect to beat the Irish.

Notre Dame is a team that isn't really going to surprise you. They score the ball pretty well (2nd in the ACC in PPG), they pass the ball well (2nd in the ACC in APG), they're average on the glass (9th in the conference in rebound rate), and they're terrible defensively (2nd to last only to BC in just about every defensive category). They heavily rely on their starting five, only going seven maybe eight deep with the losses of Jerian Grant and Austin Burgett. They like to run a four out, one in style of offense with Sherman on the block. They tend to either give him touches when he's in a good position or let their guards slash from the wings to free up shooters. Occasionally they'll make it all the way to the basket, but against the Pack Line, I don't see that happening all that often. Overall, their offense is not extremely complicated, but they have talented players that know how to play to their strengths.

Garrick Sherman is really crafty and poses a real threat to Virginia's bigs. It's becoming cliche to say this, but Garrick's a "throwback" kind of player that you rarely ever see anymore. I anticipate Bennett will put Akil Mitchell on him, and while I'm not sure if Akil has played against a guy like Sherman, he has consistently done well in just about every kind of matchup. Also, I'm not sure how often Sherman goes against a guy like Mitchell, either. Akil is one of the best post defenders in college basketball, and while I still expect Sherman to "get his," I do think Mitchell will frustrate him and prevent him from taking the game over.

The other main threat to the Cavs' chances comes from Eric Atkins. In his High School days, Atkins was a guy I really wanted to end up in Charlottesville, and he very nearly did. Ultimately, the coaching change caused him to switch from a UVA lock to an ND commit. Virginia certainly could have used him over the past few years, as he is a much more consistent offensive threat than Jontel Evans ever was, though obviously nowhere near the type of defender. I do think it ended up working out for both teams, though, as despite their faults, each had solid careers at their respective schools. This year, Atkins has had an up and down season. Statistically, he's very solid, racking up 14 pts and 5 assists per game. However, he's not as dominant or consistent as you would expect from a senior guard with his kind of talent. Overall, he's still one of the league's better guards who you can expect to make his mark on the game in some fashion. Offensively, it will be interesting to see how well London Perrantes does staying in front of him. Atkins is certainly quicker, but London's on ball defense has been vastly improved as of late. On the other end of the floor, I think Perrantes could have a field day. Atkins is a solid defender for the Irish, with active hands and fairly quick feet, but unless he can really get into London and frustrate him, Perrantes is going to have a lot of open lanes to both drive and dish. Watching ND on film, it's astonishing how many open lanes there are. With the way we play offense, London should be able to put up a bunch of assists, feeding guys like Joe Harris, Malcolm Brogdon, and Justin Anderson.

Other than Sherman and Atkins, ND doesn't have many consistent threats. Pat Connaughton is a guy who looks like an All ACC player one day, only to disappear the next. Usually, he tends to live and die by the three ball. He's a good shooter, but his shot selection is questionable on occasion. I think Virginia is well suited to prevent him from going off. I anticipate that Joe Harris will draw the matchup against him. Harris is one of the most underrated defenders in the league, if not the country. A lot of people (wrongly) assume that Joe's defense will prevent him from playing in the NBA. The tape says otherwise. It's obvious how much of an impact Bennett has had on his game, as he came in an average at best defender and has evolved into an extremely confident, aggressive, and fundamentally solid player on defense. Harris should not have much trouble staying with Connaughton and contesting his shots. Pat can still get hot and knock some down, but I think Virginia will use Harris, Anderson, and Brogdon to make sure his influence is minimal.

Notre Dame's most physically talented player is the freshman and former McDonald's All American, Demetrious Jackson. I LOVED his game in high school, but like Irish fans, have been pretty disappointed with his production this season. I still think he'll develop into a star, but he currently seems overwhelmed by the level of competition in this league. He's a bulldog of a guard, with an explosive first step and great strength. His biggest problem is understanding his role. For someone with his kind of talent, he can disappear far too often. In the past two games, he has only taken two shots. He still has the talent to make a difference in a game, but only if he can find a way to settle in and get comfortable. He'll be a step quicker on Brogdon, but I think Malcolm's size will frustrate him. Also, don't be surprised to see Anderson on him a bit. Justin can keep him in front of him and will almost surely frustrate him into making poor decisions.

The only other players of note for the Irish are Zach Auguste, Tom Knight, and Steve Vasturia. Auguste has a really nice build for a center at 6'10 242 lbs. However, he has failed to really establish his presence on the inside. He shows flashes of his potential, but ultimately lacks consistency on both ends of the floor. He will be given the task to try and stop Mike Tobey. I've been waiting for Tobey to put together a game like we all know he's capable of, like he did against NCST and Davidson. Maybe that happens tonight, as ND is a pretty poor defensive team on the interior. Knight is a pretty scrappy player who gives the Irish good minutes off the bench. He battles hard and uses his strength to fight for rebounds and easy buckets. Look for him to try and matchup up with Anthony Gill. Gill should be able to score and draw fouls against Knight, but he has to make sure to be disciplined on the glass and really earn his rebounds. Finally, Vasturia is a talented freshman who can really shoot the ball and has a really high basketball IQ. He's the kind of guy who would do very well at Virginia under Bennett. In a number of ways, he kind of reminds me of a mix between Paul Jesperson and Evan Nolte. I don't expect him to have a huge impact, but he'll certainly play.

As you can see, Notre Dame is not a deep team at all. They only have eight scholarship players, and just seven of those play significant minutes. They heavily rely on the production of their starting five, only getting around seven points off the bench. I think as long as Virginia keeps playing the way they have been the past month, they should leave South Bend with a victory. In order for ND to win, they will have to be uncharacteristically good on defense, give Sherman lots of touches close to the basket, and knock down shots from the outside. If they don't do all three of these things, they will lose. Ultimately, I think the Irish will really struggle trying to defend UVA, especially guys like Harris and Brogdon. Perrantes should be able to take advantage of ND's weaknesses on defense to get the ball to those to in a position to score.

Again, this is a game we certainly could lose. But given what I've come to learn about this team, I don't see that happening.