Remembering Last Year:
Because of this memory, few Virginia fans are willing to overlook a Georgia Tech team, even one as depleted as this one. The fact that UVA was a much better team than the Jackets didn't matter last year and they might not tomorrow. Even the fact that the Wahoos had pretty much controlled the game for the first thirty minutes or so was proven irrelevant by the atrocious play down the stretch. In many ways, last year's game showed the necessity of playing well for a full forty minutes, no matter the opponent, no matter the location, no matter the score.
I think the last few minutes of the Boston College game Wednesday night may have been a blessing in disguise. It reminded Virginia's players of that lesson learned in Atlanta a year ago. For a team that has been as hot as the Hoos have been of late, sometimes you need to be humbled and reminded that it won't always be this easy. I'm sure Coach Bennett was saying something along those lines in the locker room following the near collapse against the Eagles.
Tomorrow's Matchup:
Anyways, I don't expect Bennett's team to come out overconfident or cocky tomorrow. At full health, Georgia Tech is a fairly talented team. In fact, one wonders why they have only made it to the tournament just two times since 2005. They always seem to have above average talent, but never seem to get the kind of results you would expect. The easiest answer to this question is coaching. We all know about Paul Hewitt's tenure at Georgia Tech. In my opinion, he's one of the worst coaches to ever lead a team to the national championship game (that's kind of both a compliment and an insult all in one). Ultimately, the school didn't like the direction the program was heading and opted for Brian Gregory instead. At the time, I think the general consensus was that it was a solid hire. Gregory has been relatively successful at Dayton and seemed to have the potential to do well at a school like Georgia Tech. He's a good recruiter and Atlanta/Georgia is certainly a good place to recruit.
However, in just two and a half years, I'm beginning to think it's not going to work out for Gregory. While this year's injuries have been unfortunate, his first two teams should have been much better than they actually were. I've gone off on a tangent here so I'll close by saying that while the Jackets have plenty of talent, you never know what you're going to get from them. Unless Gregory finds a way to develop that talent, it's going to stay that way.
I don't want to get too heavily into the individual matchups, because so much depends upon who plays for Georgia Tech, how often, etc. As a team, they are big, strong, and moderately athletic (hey, that kind of sounds like UVA!). UVA has an edge on the glass, though GT is solid there as well. GT is average defensively and relies on interior scoring on offense. 57.1% of their scoring comes from inside the arc (31st most in the nation). This is mainly because the Jackets are a horrible three point shooting team. Leading up to the Carolina game, many people claimed that Virginia was a bad matchup for the Heels because of their inability to shoot the three ball. Well, GT is even worse than UNC in that category. As a team, the Jackets shoot just over 30% from three. That's good for 309th in the country. The worst three point shooting team to beat Virginia this year is Green Bay (183). The only other teams UVA has faced below 300 in that category are JMU and NCSU, whom the Hoos beat by a combined 51 points. I never really buy into any argument that says "this one reason" is why a game will end up a certain way, but there may be something to this one. Teams that can's shoot from the outside just have a harder time beating a Bennett coached team.
Deciding Factors:
Ultimately, I think the game will be decided based on two factors. First, how well UVA executes on offense will be critical. Regardless of which Jackets actually suit up/are on the floor, I expect Virginia to frustrate them with their defense. Unless someone has an uncharacteristically good night from the three point line, expect Georgia Tech to struggle to put points on the board. Virginia's offense, however, isn't a given. While it has certainly improved from last year and throughout the course of the season, UVA isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut. Execution is essential. I expect Malcolm Brogdon to continue his success, though he will certainly be more challenged than in the last game. The key is for other Virginia players, particularly Joe Harris, Justin Anderson, and at least one post player to show up as well. If Virginia executes and makes shots, it will find itself in a good position to win.
The second factor might be the most deciding one. How UVA comes out of the game will determine how the game will end. If the Hoos storm out of the gates like they have so many times this year, don't expect the Jackets to come surging back. Despite what happened last year, I think it's safe to expect Virginia to hold a lead if they can establish one. If the Hoos can build a double digit lead in the first half, look for Gregory to sit his key players. The Jackets are supposed to lose tomorrow. If they press too hard and force another injury, that would be significantly worse than any kind of a loss. Because of this, I really think the game can be won by halftime. That doesn't UVA won't have to keep playing, but I do think that if faced with a big deficit, Gregory & Co. won't try and force anything.
Conclusion:
Like just about every game left on the schedule, this is a game Virginia should win. Given the contrast between Virginia's depth and Georgia Tech's depletion, there's no valid reason why UVA should lose this game. If it somehow does, they won't be able to make excuses. If the Hoos come out with energy, play stifling defense, and execute on offense, they will be able to build a lead that may prove insurmountable. As long as they don't allow the Jackets to hang around late, Virginia should win without much trouble.
Hopefully they actually have learned a lesson from last year's game, along with Wednesday's last few minutes, and don't make me look like a dummy...
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