Friday, February 28, 2014

Virginia-Syracuse Game Preview:

This is what I tweeted out in my alcohol induced frustration following the loss to Duke. At the time, Virginia was 12-4, 3-0 in the ACC. As I mentioned in my Pittsburgh Preview, it would be a lie to say that I was 100% confident in this prediction. I knew this team was good, and was certainly capable of proving me right, but I also had memories of getting my hopes up, just to be let down in the end. So for this reason, I was hesitant. But still, I felt that there was something that made this team from other Virginia teams. So, I decide that this team would be the one to break the pattern of disappointment, and tweeted out my bold prediction.

So now I'm one game away from finally being rewarded for my naive optimism. How has it happened? Well, for one, we've been able to take advantage of the easiest conference schedule in the ACC. Is it our fault that we have such an easy draw? Obviously not. We can't help having to play Virginia Tech twice. We can't help it that Notre Dame is a vastly different team without Jerian Grant. We can't help it that Mark Turgeon is a miserable basketball coach. We can't help it that Florida State isn't as good as they were supposed to be. You get the point. Because of all of these factors, we really did luck out with whom we had to face. But why does that even matter? It'd be one thing if we were barely scraping by the mediocre teams in our schedule or if we dropped an easy one or two. If that was the case, then yeah, you could call us fortunate to be in first place. But since we've been dominant pretty much from start to finish, you can no longer call our rise to the top "lucky." If you're Duke or Syracuse, you forfeit your right to complain about SOS when you lose to teams like Clemson, Notre Dame, and Boston College. And I won't even get into how fortunate Syracuse is to even still have a chance to win the league given all of their struggles against mediocre opponents.

Anyways, yes, taking advantage of a favorable draw is one reason why we are where we are. But the other reason is more significant. Virginia is playing for an ACC title tomorrow because they finally found an identity and embraced it. Prior to ACC play, UVA's inconsistency came primarily from a lack of identity. We didn't know what type of team we were and we didn't know what type of team we wanted to be. We turned the ball over at an alarming rate, we had no rhythm on offense, and we were uncharacteristically poor on defense. What we really needed was a game like Tennessee so that we could take everything apart in order to build it back up. That humbling defeat showed us that we did not have enough raw talent to simply show up and win. We still had to play team basketball. This necessarily meant shortening the rotation and guys embracing different role. And as we've seen in ACC play, that's exactly what they've done.

Syracuse on Offense:


The Orange are 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offense according to KenPom.com's rankings. Much like Virginia, they are a good but not great offensive team. Their biggest weapon is ACC Preseason Player of the Year, CJ Fair. For some reason, Fair has flown somewhat under the radar this season, despite playing very well all year long. He has only scored in single figures twice all season (against St. Francis and Notre Dame). Fair is very aggressive with the ball in his hands and is constantly looking to get himself a shot. Only TJ Warren takes more shots than Fair's 14.7 per game. CJ is most deadly in the midrange game. I'd be willing to bet that over half of his scoring comes from his one dribble midrange pull up shots. The only real downside to his game is that he can be a little to aggressive at times. He turns the ball over 2.5 times per game and has shot the 2nd most three pointers on the team despite only shooting around 25%.


Their next weapon for the Orange is Freshman PG Tyler Ennis. A few weeks ago in my Pittsburgh game preview, instead of writing a paragraph to describe James Robinson's game, I simply wrote "London Perrantes." I probably could have done something similar here, but there are a few differences to point out. First of all, Syracuse relies much more heavily on Ennis to score than Virginia does on Perrantes. For this reason, Ennis shoots the ball twice as much as London does. While Ennis will make you pay if you give him open looks from deep, he primarily does his damage in the lane. He has elite vision like London and makes good decisions with the ball. What separates him from Perrantes, at least for now, is his ability to finish. He has a nifty little floater that he loves to use in the lane. He also is surprisingly good at finishing at the rim for a guy his size. His one vulnerability, which has only really become an issue the past few games, is turnovers. Ennis is averaging over 2 turnovers a game in ACC play, and has committed 11 turnovers in the past 4 games. Against Maryland, he was a bit too lackadaisical with some of his passes. He will not be able to be that casual against Virginia.

Jerami Grant might be the Orange's most talented player. Grant is an elite wing with post size. Even though he's not really a post player, he gets most of his points at the rim. Grant is extremely aggressive and loves to attack the basket. He plays very well alongside Ennis, who feeds him for easy finishes. The biggest question concerning Grant is his health. He has been struggling with back pain and played sparingly in the game against Maryland. If he's fully healthy, Grant will be a problem for Virginia, especially on the glass. Syracuse is one of the best offensive rebound teams around and Grant is a big reason why.

The other main weapon for Syracuse is Trevor Cooney. Simply put, Cooney is a shooter. 72% of his FG attempts this season are from behind the arc. Like most shooters, Cooney is very hot-cold. He's had games where he's been 7-8, 5-6, 5-11, 5-8, 5-9, and 9-12. Those were his "hot" games. His cold ones have been 0-4, 1-5, 2-12, 2-8, 1-6, 2-10. The most interesting thing to note is that he seems to be is a sort of slump. Since his 33 pt 9-12 outing against Notre Dame, Cooney has shot just 11-40 (27%) from three. He isn't much of a threat to score outside of his shot, so if he continues his cold streak or Virginia does a good job closing out on him, the Orange will be in trouble. But if he starts feeling it, there likely won't be anything UVA can do about it.

Those four players make up around 80% of the Orange's scoring. The other 20% is split among Rakeem Christmas, Michael Gbinije, Baye Mousa Keita, and Tyler Roberson. Christmas, Syracuse's starting Center, scores just under six points per game. He isn't the type of guy who's going to take over a game, but you can count on him getting at least a couple buckets around the rim each game. He's a good finisher down low and uses his length and athleticism to create a presence in the paint. Keita is similar to Christmas, but a little less polished. If he's going to score, it's likely going to be on an easy one around the basket. Gbinije is the only backcourt reserve for the Orange. The Petersburg native is active and can give Syracuse some good minutes, but having seen him play for around 7 years now, I don't think he's someone Virginia has to worry about offensively. Roberson has a frame similar to Grant's, but hasn't really be able to establish a role for himself. I don't think we'll see too much of him unless Christmas/Keita/Grant get in foul trouble (more on that below).

As far as matchups go, I think we'll see Virginia start with: Perrantes on Ennis Harris on Cooney Brogdon on Fair Mitchell on Grant Tobey on Christmas When Anderson checks in, I think he'll rotate between Ennis and Fair. Harris will probably see some time on Fair, but I expect Brogdon to check him for most of the game. I know this worries some people, but you have to remember that Brogdon did a great job on TJ Warren earlier in the year (as did Joe). Since Joe is much better at closing out and staying with shooters, I like him on Cooney. When Gill and Atkins check in, they will likely be paired with Christmas or Keita. I really like the matchup of Mitchell on Grant. He can prevent Grant from getting good looks near the rim and can keep him off the glass as well.

Syracuse on Defense:

As everyone knows, Syracuse runs a 2-3 zone. Boeheim recruits specifically for this zone, as he always has smart guards that know how to get in the passing lanes and long, athletic bigs who alter shots inside and grab rebounds. That's true of this year's team, as Ennis and Cooney frequently cut off passing lanes to get steals, and Fair, Grant, and Christmas use their length to affect shots inside. There's no one way to beating Syracuse's zone, or any zone for that matter. The easiest way is to simply shoot over top of it, but it's also the most predictable and high risk option. The most effective way is to move the ball like hell around the perimeter and get touches at the high and low post. UVA has used a number of different looks against the zone this season.

Against Notre Dame in South Bend, UVA had Perrantes at the top of the key, Brogdon and Harris on the wings, Tobey/Gill at the high post, and Mitchell running the baseline. This is pretty much what Duke did at the Carrier Dome, putting Parker in Mitchell's role on the baseline. In my opinion, this is the best way to attack Syracuse, especially with Gill at the high post. Feed Gill the ball, have him drive and draw 1-2 of the bottom three and there will be a lane to get Akil the ball. Another way we can play the zone is by starting with two bigs in the high post. We did this against ND in the second game. This allows us to aggressively screen the top of the zone and force the entire zone to over-rotate. For example, say Perrantes feeds the ball from the top of the key to Brogdon on the right wing. As soon as the pass is made, Mitchell dives to the low post/baseline. Gill either sets a ball screen or delays and screens the far side of the zone. The latter strategy is my favorite, as it allows for a swing pass. This pass is risky, but if it gets through, the defense is in a really poor spot.

It's hard to describe this in words, but basically this strategy is all about forcing the top of the zone towards one end of the floor then skipping it across to make them recover. The more the ball moves the more the zone has to work. UVA has the right personnel to attack a zone. A steady PG at the top of the key, two wings who can drive and shoot, bigs who are threats to shoot from the elbow, and athletic guys who can finish down low. It will be tough, but if Virginia can be aggressive without turning the ball over, they will have some success offensively.
Conclusion:

 As a Virginia fan, I'm weirdly confident about this game. I don't see a scenario where we play well and lose. That said, UVA must go out and put together a good game of basketball. While both defenses will have the advantage over the opposing offenses, I think Syracuse will have a bit more trouble scoring than Virginia will. Also, I think Syracuse will struggle to stay out of foul trouble. Virginia is a fairly big and aggressive team in the post, and Syracuse really on has two natural post players, both of whom struggle with fouls. If Christmas and/or Keita pick up some early ones, the Orange will be in trouble.

Ultimately, I think the combination of Virginia's defense, the home crowd, and Syracuse's lack of depth will tip UVA over the edge. If UVA hits shots and protects the ball, it will likely win the ACC.

That sounds pretty cool, doesn't it?
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