Monday, February 10, 2014

The Mini-Winning Streak:

Truth be told, I'm going to miss this rivalry. Maryland fans are nothing if not entertaining. There are few things more satisfying than beating the Terps in basketball. Thankfully, Virginia has been able to do just the past couple of years. Not only have the outcomes of the recent games been satisfying, but the ways in which Virginia has been able to beat its "quasi-rival" (neither fanbase likes to admit that the other is actually their rival) have been as well.

In 2011, just a few weeks after losing to the Terps at JPJ by over 20 points, the Wahoos waltzed in to the Comcast Center and earned a fairly easy 74-60 victory.

The following year, thanks to a barrage of threes by Terrell Stoglin and Nick Faust, #22 Virginia found its tied at 33 with Maryland at the half. What happened next was downright hilarious. UVA scored the first 14 points of the second half and never looked back, only allowing 13 second half points to the Terps in a 71-44 blowout.

Later in the year, in the final regular season game, Virginia entered the Comcast Center desperately needing a win. UVA had lost 5 of its past 8 games (though 4 of which to ranked teams) and witnessed its once certain NCAA tournament hopes dwindle by the day. On top of that, the Hoos were also badly physically depleted. Center Assane Sene was done for the year with an injury ankle. Malcolm Brogdon wasn't likely to play any time soon after breaking his foot. Second leading scorer, Joe Harris, had been playing with a cast on his left hand after breaking it a few weeks prior. Simply put, what was a limited rotation to begin with had become unbelievably limited. UVA had to lean heavily on the best player in the ACC, Mike Scott, as well as hope for production from Harris despite his injury, and for Sammy Zeglinski to have a hot shooting hand (which was far from a given). If Mike Scott didn't bring his A game, or got in foul trouble, Virginia was going to lose. Thankfully, Scott brought his A+ game to the Comcast Center that day, going for 35 points on 11-20 shooting and 11 rebounds to propel his team to an overtime victory and effectively clinch an NCAA berth.

In the first meeting last year, Tony Bennett's squad went to Maryland looking for a road rebound. Exactly a week prior, Virginia had thrown its momentum from beating a ranked NCSU team away by laying an egg in Atlanta against Georgia Tech. That game represented the fifth "inexplicable" loss away from JPJ, the others being to George Mason, Old Dominion, Wake Forest, and Clemson. The narrative of UVA as a good team only within the cozy confines of the John Paul Jones Arena had emerged and people were seriously wondering whether the team's impressive win at Wisconsin was a major fluke. Because of these factors, not many people had much confidence in Virginia's ability to go into College Park and leave with a win. Well, that's exactly what they did. The most surprising thing was that they did it fairly easily, using hot shooting to drop an uncharacteristic 80 points on the Terps to win by 11.

Tonight's Game:

The situation entering the regular season finale in Charlottesville closely mirrored the one in College Park two years ago. Virginia was a depleted team, though not as severely as in 2012, that needed a win to bolster its chances of making the tournament. Having defeated Maryland on their home court with relative easy, most fans, including myself, were confident that Virginia would get the win it needed on Senior Day. However, that confidence dissipated quickly, as the Terps surged out to a 31-14 lead. Maryland was hitting shots and making it hard on defense while Virginia was doing just about the exact opposite. The first of many momentum-changers came when Justin Anderson drained a three pointer at the first half buzzer to cut the deficit to a more manageable 13 points. Roughly 18 minutes later, Virginia knotted the game at 52, only to see Dez Well hit a go ahead floater with 26 seconds remaining. UVA was able to tie the game in dramatic fashion, as Justin Anderson fed a tricky pass to Mike Tobey, who layed it in with his left hand over Maryland Center and future lottery pick, Alex Len. Virginia carried the momentum into overtime, emerging with another crucial overtime victory over the Terps.

So now here we are. What's the story going into Maryland's final trip to JPJ? Well, first off, there's just that. Barring any future scheduled non-conference matchups, this will be the last time the Hoos host the Terps. Since the arena's opening in 2006, Virginia is 5-2 against Maryland at JPJ (UVA is 45-41 all time at home). As I have pointed out above, the Wahoos have one the series' past five games, though Maryland leads all time, 106-73. In the past five years or so, the theme has been either overtime or a blowout. Only one game since 2009 has been decided by single digits in regulation.

The narrative surrounding this particular matchup focuses on whether Virginia will continue its dominant play or will Maryland build upon an impressive showing against Florida State and earn a spot on the tournament bubble. Two very relevant things to note about the matchup are that Virginia is very good at home against ACC foes (the last unranked ACC team to win in JPJ was VT on January 22, 2012) and Maryland is not very good on the road (their last victory over a ranked team on the road was at UNC on January 19, 2008...plus the Terps are 2-5 on the road this year, with the two wins coming against ACC bottom-dwellers Boston College and Virginia Tech).

The Backcourt:

A lot of factors seem to play into Virginia's hand, but Maryland is still a dangerous team that could win a game like this if they can knock down shots. While their frontcourt is nothing to ignore, the Terps' strength is in their guard play. Maryland's two leading scorers are their two starting guards, Seth Allen and Dez Wells. If those two don't produce points, Maryland won't win. Allen is a crafty point guard who can do a little bit of everything (sorry for the cliches, but that's the best way to describe him). After missing the first twelve games of the season with a foot injury, Allen has been working on shaking off the rust, much like Malcolm Brogdon earlier in the year. Before Saturday, Allen had been largely inconsistent, going for 18 in one game only to follow it up with a single point in the next. However, if Saturday's performance against FSU is any indication, he may well have overcome the rust. Against the Noles, Allen scored 32 points on 11-15 from the field, and 7-10 from deep. While that outing may have been a case of a player playing out of his mind, it gives a glimpse into his potential as a shooter and scorer. Since there really isn't another good matchup for London Perrantes in Maryland's backcout, expect to see the Freshman try and slow Allen down tonight. In some ways, Allen's game is similar to that of Nic Moore of SMU. While Moore scored 17 points on Perrantes in their meeting earlier in the year, London's defense was still impressive. He made him earn everything and prevented him from truly going off. Moore is a step quicker than Allen, and a more consistent shooter, so this matchup is slightly better for London. I still expect Allen to have some success, but Perrantes and the rest of the defense will make him work for it.

Maryland's other main backcourt threat is Dez Wells. Wells is a big, physical wing who thrives on attacking. While he is capable of pulling up for jumpers, he's most deadly slashing to the basket and finishing. While Wells is an elite slasher, he's the type of player the Pack Line is designed to slow down. Like Allen, it's probably going to score. The key for Virginia will be twofold. First, they must contest his shots and prevent him from getting looks near the basket. Second, they have to frustrate him and make him turn the ball over. Wells' aggression is a double edged sword. While it allows him to blow by defenders and get to the rim, he often finds himself in too deep, limiting his options. This is one of the main reasons why he averages nearly three turnovers a game. While he did a great job limiting his turnovers against UVA last year, he still struggled with poor shot selection, as he shot just 27% in Charlottesville. Look for Virginia to use a combination of Joe Harris, Malcolm Brogdon, and Justin Anderson to make things difficult on the offensive end.

The rest of Maryland's backcourt includes Nick Faust and Roddy Peters. Faust is talented, but terribly inconsistent, as evidenced by his twelve single digit games paired with his twelve double digit performances. While he is a bit more than this, it's still probably best to call him a shooter. He goes as far as his shot goes. His 15 point outing in Charlottesville last year will surely have the attention of the Virginia staff. Peters is a rookie point guard who had to step in while Allen was out. He too has talent, but his offensive game is relatively raw. He likes to get to the rim, but isn't quite big or strong enough to finish with confidence. Peters is also not a real shooting threat, as his unorthodox shooting motion limits his range significantly. He can still knock down a midrange jumper if you give it to him, but I believe that's a chance Virginia might be willing to take. Overall, I'm not sure how much we'll see of Peters other than is situations where the others need a breather.

The Frontcourt:

In the frontcourt, Maryland has two types of players. They have stretch-4's in Jake Layman and Evan Smotrycz, as well as big bodied players like Charles Mitchell, Shaq Cleare, and Damonte Dodd. Jonathan Graham is the team's most "traditional" post player, but I'm not sure how much Virginia will see of him, unless the others really struggle defensively.

Layman is more of a wing than a post player. While I can't stand him when Virginia plays against him, I really respect his game. He's long, athletic, plays with energy, shoots the ball well and knows how to get good looks. While he only shoots 38% from deep, you can't afford to give him an open look.
UVA will need to contest his shots and keep him off the glass. While he may spend some time at the 4, there's a good chance he'll be one the wing with a height advantage. Layman really knows how to rebound so whomever is tasked with blocking him out must be disciplined and diligent.

Smotrycz is similar to Layman, except he's slightly bigger and a step slower. He's not as versatile with the ball in his hands as Jake is. Because of this, he's really only a threat when he can find clean looks. While his shooting numbers are okay, his motion isn't exactly quick, so he needs space to knock down shots. Depending on who he's matched up against, his space could come from a height advantage. If he doesn't have such an advantage, he will struggle to get clean looks. Virginia has a number of options for how to deal with Smotrycz and I'm confident one will work. Also, Evan is a liability on defense, as he struggles with both stronger and more athletic bigs. Any of Virginia's post players would have an advantage against him with the ball in their hands, so we might see Turgeon try and play him more on the wing.

Mitchell and Cleare are both space eaters inside. While neither are huge scoring threats, I think Mitchell is the more gifted offensively. He's deceptively quick and used some nifty moves to his advantage last year. Mitchell is also the better rebounder of the pair, as he's a pretty intelligent player and finds the ball.
Cleare is also strong and will, along with Mitchell, be asked to be a presence down low, get rebounds, draw fouls, and just generally disrupt Virginia's bigs. It will be interesting to see what combinations Virginia uses in the post. In theory, it could be a good matchup for Mike Tobey, as Maryland is big, but not very tall or long. However, Tobey's lack of strength could render him useless against the likes of Mitchell and Cleare. Gill would seem to be the best answer for Maryland's strength, but I also like the possibility of playing Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins together for a bit. The quickness and athleticism of that pair is something Maryland just doesn't have an answer for.

Conclusion:

As a team, Maryland thrives on getting the most out of its individual talent. Their offense (except on specifically designed sets) resembles an NBA offense where the guy with the ball is the focal point. The Terps do not move well without the ball and can have a tendency to stand around and wait for the ball-handler to make something happen. While I personally (and unsurprisingly) loathe this style of play, it attracts recruits and gives players like Allen, Wells, Faust, and Layman the freedom to do what they do best.

While Maryland's defensive stats are respectable enough, don't be fooled: the Terps are a poor defensive team. Fore example, we're all well aware of Pittsburgh's lack of offense. Well, the Panthers had no trouble scoring on the Terps, putting up 79 and 83 points in two meetings. Partly due to Turgeon's style and offensive emphasis, his team takes way too many plays off and rarely hustles. I particularly like Virginia's chances of success off of ball screens (or any screen for that matter). If a guy like Akil Mitchell sets a screen for a guard, chances are Maryland's post players will be late to recover. I expect to see Akil look to exploit this advantage, and try and get as many easy dunks as possible.

Also, for the size Maryland has, it isn't a particularly good rebounding team. Still, Virginia has to be diligent on the glass and limit the Terps' 2nd chances.

Ultimately, this is yet another game Virginia should win comfortably. However, unlike with an overmatched Virginia Tech team, the whole "records don't matter in a rivalry game" argument applies to tonight. While the time change and potential for bad weather are bummers, I still expect JPJ to provide Maryland with a hostile swan song. Those in attendance will be eager to see the Hoos continue its winning trend, both in this season and in the series with the Terps. However, Maryland is the type of team that could feed off hostility. So a close game would not necessarily surprise me, especially if Virginia starts the game off like it did on Saturday in Atlanta.

In the end, though, I just have an extremely hard time seeing Maryland winning this game. It's certainly possible, but if they are going to beat UVA, I think it's far more likely it will be in March, after the Hoos' big matchup with Syracuse.

So long Terps. We will miss you dearly.*

























*Ha.


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