Pittsburgh Preview

Shortly after Rasheed Suliamon's jumper defied the laws of physics and gave Duke a much needed victory over Virginia, I tweeted, "Wanna get this out there: UVA will win the ACC regular season title. There, I said it. Hold me to it." I'm not really sure why I did this. Understandably, I was pretty darn upset with the way the game ended. I truly believed that Virginia, despite its terrible start, was the better team, and that Duke was extremely fortunate to escape with a win. I felt disappointed, but also proud of our guys and confident that they would bounce back from the tough loss. I pulled out my phone and checked to see what kind of competition UVA had left on its ACC schedule. I was already aware that our second half of conference play was a bit easier than the first, but as I looked at it more closely, I began to notice that we had a really good chance to string together wins going into the Syracuse game. I then checked out the schedules of other contenders and learned that Virginia has the easiest slate of games down the stretch of the bunch. It was this realization, with the help of more than a couple of beers, that led me to tweet out my bold prediction. I have to admit that this prediction was not made with 100% confidence. I knew that it was certainly a possibility, but my experience as a UVA fan made me pause. Ultimately, something (probably the beer) tipped me over the edge, as I thought to myself, "You know what? This team actually is different. They're gonna get it done."

So far, so good. They guys have showed that same fire that we all saw during the furious comeback at Cameron Indoor. Now that we're halfway through the ACC season, and UVA sits in second place, just  a game behind Syracuse, what was once a bold prediction is now a very realistic possibility. So, as many other fans have done, I have been checking out the schedule to see what hurdles stand between this team and its goal. Road games against teams like Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Maryland would typically fall into that "hurdle" category. However, this is one area where I truly believe that this team is different from previous ones. Since the start of ACC play, Virginia hasn't merely avoided the ever familiar road letdown; it has made it seem like an absurd impossibility. There are a lot of things to be impressed by with the way this team is playing right now, but for me, the one that really stands out is how we have been able to blow out ACC foes on the road. For this reason, while games at Clemson and Maryland are still games we could potentially lose I just don't see it happening. So if we're going to take those out of the "hurdle" category, what's left?

That was obviously a rhetorical question, as every Virginia fan knows that the answer is clearly: Pitt and Syracuse. While Syracuse, especially after their thrilling victory over Duke tonight, might appear to be the biggest hurdle, I personally feel like the road trip to Pittsburgh is an even more demanding challenge. The Panthers are a talented, excellently coached team that badly wants a win to prove that they're not just a "paper tiger." Add in a raucous environment, frustrated after being embarrassed by Duke, and a win is a lot to ask of this UVA team.

So let's dig a little deeper into this significant hurdle that awaits the Cavaliers...

The Matchup:

In some ways, Pittsburgh is a pretty similar team to UVA. They pride themselves on defense. They value the basketball. They're tough and physical. They don't really have a bunch of blue-chippers. They share the basketball....etc. For these reasons among others, this game projects to be a brawl. While both teams have show their willingness to run if the opportunity presents itself, I expect that tomorrows game will be relatively short on possessions.

Offensively, the Panthers tend to go as far as Lamar Patterson takes them. I must admit that I did not know much about Patterson until a few weeks ago. What I have come to learn since then is that he is one of the best basketball players in the conference, if not the country. He is a 6'5 225 lb wing who is very crafty with the ball in his hands. He's one of the toughest covers anywhere because he can put the ball in the basket in a variety of ways. He's a very strong shooter and knows how to get himself good looks. He's got an impressive handle that allows him to make up for his below average quickness and athleticism. His jumper's quick release makes him a threat to score from just about anywhere. Patterson is just one of those guys who can make good defense irrelevant. Even when he's not open, he's open. Despite this, UVA will still try their best to slow him down like Duke did the other night. In Pitt's three losses, Patterson has shot 12-34 (35%), which is significantly lower than his season average of 40%. Virginia will do everything they can to prevent him from getting clean looks and taking over the game. Even in his worst game of the season against Duke, Patterson still put up 14 points, so I think it's unlikely UVA will shut him down completely, but they might at least be able to slow him down. I'm actually not certain how Tony Bennett will chose to handle the matchup. The most logical guess would be that he'll stick Justin Anderson on Patterson for the majority of the game. Anderson is quicker and more athletic than Patterson, and is strong enough to hold his own against the well built scorer. However, I think we might see Akil Mitchell and maybe Joe Harris give it a shot as well. Mitchell's length could frustrate Patterson like Rodney Hood's length did on Monday night. Using Harris is also attractive, as Joe would be able to fight through screens to chase Patterson and right up in his grill. Ultimately, I do think Anderson will see the most time trying to lock down Pitt's best player. One thing to watch is how Patterson protects the ball. Turnovers are his achilles heel, despite the fact that he's a fantastic passer with great vision. Sometimes he just gets a bit ahead of himself and forces things. Whenever someone plays against a Bennett coached team for the first time, there's always the possibility of getting frustrated. If that happens to Patterson, he could give the Hoos some valuable extra possessions.

The next biggest key to Pitt's offense is James Robinson. Most Virginia fans are familiar with Robinson's game, so I won't elaborate excessively, but his similarity to London Perrantes must be mentioned. Robinson and Perrantes rank first and second respectively in the ACC (and I believe the country, too) when it comes to Assist to Turnover Ratio in conference play. Both players have great visions, make the right decisions, and know how to get their teammates in a position to score. Neither Robinson nor Perrantes is elite athletically or defensively, so I think they'll both be able to play their games effectively. I will point out that Pitt is a relatively slow team and tends to lag behind cutting offensive players. I noticed the same thing with Notre Dame (though it was much more extreme in that case) and thought that it would present London with a chance to make some plays (which is just what he did).

Pitt's other guard that sees significant playing time is Cameron Wright. The 6'4 205 lb Wright is probably the Panthers' quickest player and likes to hang out on the wing and cut hard to the lane when he gets the ball. I expect him to struggle getting to the hoop, as the Pack Line defense is designed to shut down players just like him. He's not a real threat to hurt you from deep (he's hit just five threes all season), but he has a very nice midrange game. While Pitt doesn't run often, they will make you pay for not hustling to get back. Once Robinson gets the ball, he pushes it up the floor and looks to see if there's an opportunity. Often times, he finds Wright in a position to catch and shoot. Wright seems to be Robinson's favorite target in transition, as he tries to set him up for quick midrange jumpers frequently. Brogdon and Harris will have to be disciplined in their transition defense to make sure Wright doesn't string together buckets. On the other end of the floor, Wright is a pretty solid defender. As the quickest Panther, he's typically able to stay with his man. Still, Pitt likes to switch screens often. I think this is to account for some of their lack of quickness and athleticism. Because of this, you can really take advantage of some mismatches. With UVA's balance, they might make Jamie Dixon think twice about switching often.

In the frontcourt, Pittsburgh is big, but not exceptionally tall, or deep for that matter. Talib Zanna is their rock in the post. Zanna is a 6'9 230 lb fifth year Senior who likes to play big. He's a very good rebounder that comes down strong with the ball. He's also someone that tends to live at the free throw line. Just under a third of his scoring comes from the stripe, though it seems like even more when you watch him play. Zanna is a very good player who will really make his impact on the glass. He's not the most polished of post players out there, so I expect him to be frustrate with UVA's tough interior defense, especially if we trap him effectively. Another thing to point about his offensive game is that he has a knack for finding a seam in the defense and cutting to the hoop. Since Pitt is one of the best passing teams in the country, his teammates often find him when he makes these cuts. These plays are the ones that usually end in a foul, as Zanna catches the defense off guard and makes them react and recover quickly. This is something Virginia's bigs must be wary of, as it not something they see all the time. Zanna is also a very good low post defender who is hard to "body." If you're going to score on him, it'll be because of skill or quickness.

Other than Zanna, Pitt doesn't get a lot of production from its bigs. Mike Young, a 6'8 (though he's definitely an inch or so shorter than that) 245 freshman is the Panthers' other main option in the post. Young is a skilled rebounder and solid defender, but isn't much of an offensive threat (only one double-figures scoring game in ACC play). I am interested to see how he handles some of Virginia's bigger players, as he looks more like a well-built wing than a true power forward.

Pitt isn't a terribly deep team. They have four players that average greater than 28 minutes per game, and a fifth at 22 per game, though that number has risen with the loss of Durand Johnson. They will play guys like Chris Jones, Derrick Randall, Jamel Artis, and Josh Newkirk, but I don't expect any of them to make a huge impact on the game. Artis is probably the best of the bunch, as he, like Young, is a bigger wing/forward who looks to have good potential. I think Randall is someone to keep an eye on as well, because he's the only true post player reserve. If Zanna or Young get in foul trouble, Randall might have to play more minutes than usual. A result of Pitt leaning on their starters is that while they play extremely well as a unit, they seem to be fatigued towards the end of games. Virginia should look to use depth to its advantage and look to attack the Panthers late in the game with its fresher legs.

Outlook:

As I made clear at the beginning of this post, I expect this game to be Virginia's toughest remaining obstacle in conference play. If we can leave The Pete with a victory, we should be the favorite to win the ACC's regular season crown. In order for this to happen, UVA will have to continue its mojo, especially on offense. I expect us to defend very will and make it difficult for the Panthers to get clean looks. However, we must execute on offense in order to come out on top. Even though they didn't look like it against Duke, the Panthers are a great defensive team. Virginia must be efficient with the ball, get good looks, and make them. They will also have to protect the ball and limit mental errors. London Perrantes will have to be London Perrantes. Malcolm Brogdon will need to attack and finish. Joe Harris will need to hunt shots and drain the. Mike Tobey will need to do EXACTLY what he did against Notre Dame, using his size and skill to his advantage...etc. You get the point. If we don't play great, we will not win. It's as simple as that.

When I predicted Virginia would win the ACC, I was sort of going against my gut. My hesitation came from past experience of being let down. Ultimately, I ignored them because the past has no bearing on this team. I have believed for a while that this program would eventually get over the hump. Well, if that's what I believe, it has to happen at some point or another, right? As I said a few weeks ago, that time is now. Yes, this game will be incredibly challenging. But I think we are up for it.

If this team is as good as I believe it is, we'll be celebrating tomorrow afternoon.